Suchergebnisse

Despite a pandemic that has brought most of the global economy to its knees, Chinese economic growth continued in 2020 and strongly accelerated in 2021. An almost certain scenario in which China is becoming the leading world economy already brings strong geopolitical implications, primarily in the form of shaking the existing world order, which is practically managed by Washington. The key reason for the strong growth of China's economy is the high share of both savings and investments in GDP (over two-fifths each) in a very long period, together with its impressive technological progress. In this regard, the direct reason for the current tension between the two countries is China's economic transformation towards the upper end of global industrial value chains. Attempts to end China's economic expansion through forced technological unbundling, US trade sanctions, or forced changes in global supply chains, seem doomed to failure given its vast internal market and conquest of entire product ranges or supply chains. America will continue with its efforts to maintain primacy over China in the basic technologies of the future, from artificial intelligence to quantum computing, with the help of huge investments in science. Although the US and China are not necessarily on the path of confrontation, this certainly cannot be ruled out. The aim of this paper is to project the future of the American and Chinese economies' dynamics of GDPs. The applied methodology is based on a linear projection of the GDP growth of both countries in the period after 2026.

Relying on relevant studies of internationally recognized economists, using content analysis, synthesis, and comparison methods, we monitor the process of de-dollarization, i.e. phenomenon of establishing a new balance of power in the global financial order. The main intention of the work is to project future directions of international monetary policy by pointing out the institutional and other barriers to the internationalization of the main contender for the status of global currency — the Chinese renminbi. The aim of the work is to provide guidelines to the creators of domestic economic policy in the context of the increased importance of non-Western currencies, and consequently, the need to rebalance the foreign exchange reserves and create the necessary infrastructure for the increased use of the Chinese currency on the domestic foreign exchange market. We conclude that despite a certain weakening of the global importance of the US currency — especially from the beginning of 2022 — the process of dedollarization is in its initial phase, and that could last for decades. Namely, in order to form a multilateral currency system, taking into account the current hegemonic status of the dollar, a substantial increase in the use of other currencies is necessary. This applies to world trade crediting, where the greatest, but still limited, progress of the yuan is seen, but also to the other domains such as the allocation of central bank's foreign exchange reserves, the securities' denomination, and the invoicing of financial transactions in bilateral trade and other arrangements.

The aim of the paper is to assess the possible consequences and risks for the global economy due to the increasingly pronounced geoeconomic fragmentation, dominantly determined by the trade and technological war of the US against China. Based on benchmark studies' findings, we reason that decoupling and trade fragmentation could manifest through several main channels. These are, among other things: the slowdown in the growth of global trade, reduced migration, decreased FDI, and bans on the transfer of certain high technologies. In order to achieve the primary goal of the study, we suggested pragmatic ways to preserve as many of the benefits as possible resulting from trade openness, that is, international economic cooperation. First of all, in addition to more intensive communications of the main global economic actors, in which additional efforts would be made for compromise solutions along the lines of argumentation of the academic community and experts in relevant international institutions, the work of leading multilateral organizations should be revitalized, giving greater importance in their leadership to developing countries, especially China. In the end, we argue that, despite all the risks, it is not realistic that geo-economic fragmentation will lead to a significant decline in most types of economic cooperation at the global level since there are no valid (geopolitical) reasons why Western countries would stop importing price- and qualitatively competitive products from China. Instead, collaboration will primarily be reduced to a limited number of high-tech sectors, perceived in Washington, Brussels, and Beijing as strategically important.