Suchergebnisse

Nema.

Nema.

The process of intensive deruralization or decline in total rural population
of the FR of Yugoslavia in the second half of the 20th century ??m?
exclusively as ? result of migration from rural to urban areas. Though
constantly positive at the level of the country as ? whole, the downward
tendency in rural population growth was observed throughout the period. The
author analyzes components and dynamics of natural change in rural
population with emphasis on the period from 1981 to 1997, regional specifics
up to the republican and provincial levels, and the main differences from
the specifics of natural change in urban population. The author highlights
that in analyzing natural change b? type of settlement, particular attention
should b? paid to the very pronounced interdependency between the components
of population dynamics and the age-sex structure, the more so as the latter
is becoming the most significant direct determinant of the natural
population growth. Namely, crude birth rate of rural population in
Yugoslavia has tor several decades now been lower th?n the corresponding
measure for urban population, while the crude death rate has, however, been
higher. At the same time, in age-specific terms, fertility was higher and
mortality lower in rural relative to urban populations. Such discrepancy
evolved primarily from the unfavorable age-specific structure of rural
population and its notably disturbed sex-specific structure (pronounced
surplus in male, particularly younger middle-aged population). The author
goes on to analyze the main features of fertility and reproduction in rural
population based on demographic statistics. ?? argues that the general and
total fertility rates represent more adequate indicators of fertility in
rural population, as the impact of age structure has been partially or even
fully eliminated. Thus, in 1990-1992, both indicators are higher for rural
relative to urban population, and sufficiently high relative to the
mortality level to assure integral replacement (net reproduction was 1.0 in
rural relative to 0.9 in urban population). In all m???r regions of the
country, fertility was higher in rural relative to urb?n population. Such
differences were minimal in low fertility regions, while remaining
significant in Kosovo and Metohia. The analysis of fertility was
supplemented b? the 1991 census data, which, for the first time, included
the number of live born children b? age of mother and type of settlement.
Despite the fact that such data on female population illustrate the
situation at the moment of census taking only, and not at the moment of
birth, the author thinks that the cohort analysis based on the census data
provide ? much more realistic account of fertility in rural population than
the period analysis based on vital statistics, primarily as it resolves the
problem of ???ur?t? registration 0f vital events b? type of settlement.
Thus, cohort fertility rates show that fertility of rural female population
is notably higher than the effective fertility in urban areas. This is true
for all five-year age groups without exception, and equally true for all
major regions Finally, the author analyzes cohort fertility of the
autochthon versus migrant populations, as well as fertility b? ethnic
origin. ?? draws ? general conclusion that fertility is higher in migrant
relative to autochthon female population, and that th? differences are much
more pronounced in rural relative to urban populations. This phenomenon is
explained b? the so-called marriage-motivated migration, which the author
assumes to b? dominant in migrant female population. As for fertility rates
b? ethnic origin, the well-known differences are also evident in rural
population. Namely, all ethnic groups can b? classified b? level fertility
into three categories. The highest rate is recorded for ethnic Albanian,
Roma and Muslim women. Montenegrin women record moderately high fertility
rates, while the rate recorded for women of Croatian descent is generally
sufficient for generation replacement. The third category is made u? of
Serb, Yugoslav, and ethnic Hungarian women as well as the great majority of
women of other ethnic origin (?unj?va?, Romanian and Slovak). ?ll these
nationalities record very low fertility levels, which have for years been
insufficient to enable generation replacement.

The ageing of the aged represents one of the main features of the demographic
ageing in Serbia during the post-war period. The main indicator of this
process is the increase in the share of persons aged 80 and over in total
old age population (60+). The author analyzes the dynamics of the elderly
population (80+) in the period from 1948-1991 with a special emphasis on the
composition by sex. An emphasis is also placed on the regional differences
in the process of the demographic ageing of the aged. According to the
population projections of Serbia until 2021, it would be realistic to expect
an intensive aging of the old - the number of persons aged 80 and over could
more than double (from 174 thousand to 368 thousand) and their share in the
total could reach 15.3%.

The social, economic, and cultural changes that have taken place in Europe in the past few decades in the field of fertility have been accompanied by an increase in permanent childlessness. The childlessness level among women born in 1968 is 12% in Serbia, slightly below the European average (14%). The aim of this paper is to explore in more detail the level of childlessness in Serbia and the characteristics of women aged 15-49 without live births. Changes in childlessness over a 60-year period (1961-2020) by five-year age groups were analysed. The basic characteristics of childless women of reproductive age by education, marital status, and age were observed from 1991 to 2011. The paper is based on census and vital statistics data. The authors introduce two new indicators of childlessness: the general childlessness rate (GChR) as the share of women without live births in the total female population aged 15-49, and the age-specific childlessness rate (ASChR) as the percentage of childless women by age. Changes in cumulative fertility rates by age were less influenced by the reproductive behaviour of mothers and much more by an increase in the proportion of childless women. The general childlessness rate until 1991 was relatively stable in Serbia. Since then, it has increased intensely (from 30.1% in 1991 to 41.6% in 2011, and 43.4% in 2020). The increase in childlessness is largely a consequence of the postponement of first births, but also of the increase in permanent childlessness among women aged 45-49. The postponement of first births has occured in all age groups and the ASChR has increased across the board. In Serbia, in 2020, the ASChR reached record values for all five-year age groups (36.5% for women aged 30-34, 21.4% for ages 35-39), as did the level of permanent childlessness (13.8% for ages 45-49). The paper also analyses childlessness by education and marital status. According to census data (1991, 2002, and 2011), the general childlessness rate is lowest among women without any formal education and those who haven?t completed primary school, and highest among women with a primary education. Childlessness rates are particularly high among women in their thirties and forties. The influence of marital status on the level of childlessness was also confirmed. The GChR of single women was at least 10 times higher than the value for ever married women. The GChR ranged from 96% to 89% for single women and invariably slightly above 8% for ever married women. The results of direct standardization showed the greater importance of the changes that occurred between 1991 and 2011 by education and marital status of women aged 15-49 on the childlessness level, as well as their completely opposite effects compared to those caused by the change in the age structure. The large impact of changes in marital structure also indicates the possibility of a certain influence on reducing childlessness in Serbia. As the decreasein marriage is not accompanied by a higherprevalence of stable extramarital unions, it?s possible that the creation of more favourable circumstances for an independent life for young people and for forming a union could contribute to reducing the postponement of childbearing, and thus reducing childlessness during and at the end of the reproductive age. This is especially important considering that family and children are highly valued in Serbia. It should be noted that the high and growing shares of women without children in the 30-34 and 35-39 age groups limit the possibilities of reducing permanent childlessness, particularly in the near future.

Widowed persons represent a vulnerable population group, especially because the loss of a spouse is usually a part of old people?s experience. In old age, people are typically faced with multiple constraints, related to health, financial resources, family and other social relationships. Changes that accompany the death of spouse and widowhood are generally long-term and largely negative for many widowed persons. With advanced population ageing, the share of the widowed in the total population is increasing, and this is also true for Serbia. With a crude widowhood rate of 11.7% in 2011, Serbia is at the very top of the list of European countries and has the highest widowhood rate of men (5.2%). However, widowhood primarily affects women, and 78% of the widowed in Serbia are widows. This paper analyses the widowhood in Serbia from 1980 to 2016. The main objective is to describe the trends and characteristics of widowed persons in this period. This article is primarily based on the analysis of previously unpublished census results and vital statistics data. In Serbia, in the period of 1981-2011, there was a continuous increase in the number of widowed persons and in 2011 it was 37.5% higher than 30 years before. Furthermore, the share of the widowed in the total population increased significantly (from 8.5% to 11.7%). Widowhood is considerably more present among women and the elderly. More than four fifths of the widowed are older than 60 years, and the values of all used demographic indicators of widowhood are three or four times higher in women. The authors mention the noticeable decrease in remarriage among widowed persons and a major decrease in the nuptiality rate of the widowed, especially among widowers. The observed educational structure of the widowed shows a higher percentage of persons with a lower educational level. Another significant finding was that the widowed represent half of the total number of people who live alone in one-person households. Among them, more than four fifths are 65 years old or older, and a full half are older than 75. The authors concluded that further quantitative and qualitative studies of demographic, but also social, psychological, health and other aspects of the widowed in Serbia are needed. Additionally, these results can represent the analytical basis for policy makers to identify needs and define different measures and actions directed towards the elderly, among which widowed persons, and especially widowers, are particularly vulnerable categories.

The paper explores the dynamics of the number of suicid es in the period of 1990-2014 and discovers differences in the direction and intensity of changes in the number of suicides in several subperiods. For Serbia, from a political, social, and economic aspect, that 25-year period encompasses at least three distinct subperiods: the breakdown of former Yugoslavia and conflicts that ensued during the 1990s (1990-2000); the change of political regime and the delayed transition in the early 2000s (2001-2006); the recession period after the beginning of the global finance crisis (2007-2014). The official statistical data for Serbia (excluding Kosovo) imply that the highest number of suicides was in the first subperiod, especially in the time of the culmination of the crisis connected to the disintegration of former Yugoslavia (1991-1993), while a trend of decrease has been noticeable in the last two sub periods. Positive changes in the suicide rate recorded in two other subperiods do not imply that the societal and economic crisis had a negative effect on the suicide mortality. The increase in suicides in the first subperiod, the period of the war conflicts, can be connected to a certain extent to the greater availability of firearms, highly lethal suicide means. The paper also looks at the other most frequently used suicide methods as well as the changes in the observed period. The analysis showed that there was a multifold increase in the use of firearms in committed suicides in the period of an increase in the number of suicides during the first years of greatest crisis, especially for young and young adult population. In this context, the paper determines a change occurred in Serbia's ranking on the European list according to the suicide rate, as well as what types of differences exist in the dynamics of these changes in comparison to other countries. Special attention is paid to the trends in ex­ communist European countries, including former Yugoslav republics . Trends in Serbia resemble those recorded in some other transition countrie s, but the increase in the suicide rate in Serbia in the first subperiod and its subsequent decrease was less intensive . Suicides do not equally affect the old and the young, men and women. Therefore, the paper observes suicides in Serbia in relation to the most significant characteristics of the deceased , age and sex, aimed to explore not only the differences at the level of suicides but also similarities of the changes in the observed subperiods. This is especially relevant for determ inin g the level differences of male and female suicide rates by age and simultaneity of the highest overall and age-specific suicide rates. The number of suicide s for men and women have changed in the same direction, but the decrease among women was greater, which increased the pre-existing differences.

Over the last five decades the share of extramarital births in the total
number of live births has been increasing in all European countries. This is
also true for Serbia (excluding Kosovo), where the share of extramarital
births in the period of 1950-2009 increased by 3 times (from 8.0% to 23.2%),
and their number increased by a fifth (from 13,141 to 16,294). Women under 25
years of age and over 40-49 years have a substantially higher share in
extramarital births than in the total number of births. Almost every second
extramarital child's mother is younger than 25, and changes in the period of
1961-2008 developed in the direction of a decreasing share of women under the
age of 30, and especially under 25, as well as an increased share of women
above 30. According to the latest data, more than a half of extramarital
children are first, although their share is decreasing. At the same time, the
percentage of births of second and especially of third and higher orders is
increasing. The share of extramarital births is increasing with all women,
regardless of their education level. The highest and constantly growing share
of extramarital births is recorded with women without education and the
lowest share with women with university education. According to activity, the
most represented are unemployed and dependant women, who also have
significantly higher shares of extramarital births than employed women. From
an ethnic aspect, it is noticeable that the highest and constantly increasing
share of extramarital births is present with ethnic Roma women, which reached
over four fifths of the total number of children born by Roma women in 2008.
Among the ethnic Serbian women the share of extramarital births is
significantly below the average for Serbia. According to the type of
settlements the share of extramarital births is lower in urban than in other
(non-urban) settlements, and in the largest urban agglomerations, including
Belgrade, it is even below the average for Serbia. Some significant regional
differences can also be noted - the zone of the high share of extramarital
fertility is in the east of Serbia, while the zone of lower and medium
fertility is in the west of central part of Serbia. It is assumed that future
dynamics in the area of extramarital births in Serbia will develop in a
manner similar to that of the last several decades. It can be concluded that
this is not a phenomenon related to adopting new values and norms, but
primarily a continuation of already present tendencies in an environment with
traditional moral norms.

The paper analyses the phenomenon of extramarital births in Serbia in the period of 1950-2008. Great changes that European countries have been undergoing in the last half-century related to fertility and family forms were also followed by an intense increase in the share of extramarital births. This is also true for Serbia (excluding Kosovo), where the share of extramarital births in total live births for the period of 1950-2008 increased almost 3 times (from 8.0% to 22.8%), and their number increased by a fifth (from 13,1 to 15,7 thousand). At the beginning of the observed period, significant differences existed in the percentage shares of extramarital births in the main regions, with the share in Vojvodina several times that of Central Serbia. Subsequent divergent dynamics led to the disappearance of regional differences and, after 1970, the level of extramarital fertility was mostly balanced. From a European aspect, the increase in the share of extramarital births in Serbia was moderate, with Serbia being one of the few countries that also recorded a decrease in the share of extramarital births in the last four decades (between 1970 and 1980). In comparison with other European countries, position of Serbia changed during the observed period from the top towards the bottom of the list, so that it was in its lower half in 2008. During the 1990s, as well as at the beginning of the 2000s, the greatest increase in the share of extramarital births in Europe was recorded in countries in transition. In the paper, the changes in the marital status of the population were treated as one of the determinants of the increase of extramarital births in Serbia. The paper also points out the similarities and differences between births in cohabitation and marriage, and legal aspects related to extramarital unions and extramarital births were also analyzed. The conclusions about the degree of presence of births in stable partner unions were made indirectly, based on the results of survey research and the latest available data on recognition children by their fathers. Since approximately three fifths of extramarital children at the beginning of the 2000s were not recognized, it was assumed that they were born in unstable unions and that they were brought up by their mothers alone. At the same time, the small level of cohabitations, discovered through survey research on the representative sample, shows that the increase in extramarital births was not proportionally followed by an increase in cohabitation. Therefore, based on indirect indicators, the authors conclude that the phenomenon of extramarital birth in Serbia was not the result of an advanced transition in partner relationships and abandoning of marriage as the partner union in which children are born. At the same time, the importance of understanding the social context of births was pointed out on the example of the Czech Republic, as a country in transition.

With approximately 20 suicides per 100.000 inhabitants, Serbia is placed in the upper half of all European countries based on the suicide rate. There are differences between Central Serbia and Vojvodina, which are more pronounced than the existing differences in overall mortality. Although these differences are becoming smaller, they are still present and related to the age structure and ethnic composition of the population, as well as religious affiliation and sociocultural factors present in these two regions. According to data for 2008, the suicide rate in Vojvodina was 23,4 per 100.000. The paper focuses on the analysis of data on mortality due to suicide of two vulnerable age groups, youth aged 15-24 and the elderly over 65 years of age, in the last four decades (1966-2008). In the youth group, differences by age and sex are observed, with a focus on prevention, while in the elderly group there was also a focus on differences in marital status, ethnicity and education. .

The Balkans, which had long been characterized by higher fertility and earlier mortality than the more western and northern parts of the European continent, have become demographically modern. They are not for that reason any less diverse. This is witnessed, for example, by the gap that separates Bulgaria, which has long made the demographic transition, and Albania, the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, or Kosovo, where the natural population growth exceeds by far the migratory deficit. It is also witnessed by the very large spectrum of degrees of aging. Political and economic changes in the Balkans, the crises that accompanied them, the doubts that they have caused concerning the collective future, have reinforced the general tendencies toward delayed marriage and fertility, as well as toward reduced marriage and fertility rates. This has de facto consolidated the tendency toward demographic aging. Migrations, especially the migrations directly or indirectly related to the conflicts in former Yugoslavia, have also contributed to the modification of the demographic landscape and to the altering of the dynamic of the affected populations. They have also had an effect on the ethnic distribution of these populations. In the Balkans, whose bases have been strongly shaken in the past twenty years, heavy fertility and mortality tendencies limit the spectrum of possible mid-to-long term futures. There are also important consequences on the socioeconomic plan. All this in a political context, internal and external, that is the source of many questions. ; Los Balcanes, que se caracterizaron durante mucho tiempo por una fecundidad más elevada y una mortalidad más precoz que en las partes oeste y norte del continente europeo, están a partir de ahora inscritos en la modernidad demográfica. A pesar de ello son extremadamente diversos. Así lo confirma la distancia que separa, por ejemplo, Bulgaria, tierra de transición demográfica antigua, Albania, la antigua república yugoslava de Macedonia o Kosovo, donde el ...

In 2006 in Serbia, 1444 persons committed suicide (19.5 per 100.000 population. Compared to the early 50s of the 20th century, the number of suicides has nearly doubled, but there has been a moderate decrease in the last 15 years. Similar, but somewhat more moderate tendencies are noted in the change of the value of the suicide rates. The lowest suicide rates were recorded during the 1950s, around 12 per 100.000, and the highest in the last decade of the 20th century when the rate reached 20 suicides per 100.000 inhabitants. The highest suicide rate is among the elderly, and there is also a noticeable tendency of increase in the share of the elderly in the total number of suicides, which is primarily the consequence of intense demographic aging. With youth, the last thirty years note a decline of both the number of suicides and the value of the suicide rates. The number of young people aged 15-24 who have committed suicide in 2006 is less than half of the number from 1971 (decreased from 150 to 66), and the values of suicide rates are also significantly low (decreased from 11.5 to 6.9 per 100.000). Despite certain changes in the values of age-specific suicide rates achieved in the last 50 years, their age patterns of suicide mortality can be characterized as stable. Men are dominant among persons who have committed suicide, with double the number of women, and the highest recorded value of the suicide rate of women never surpassed the value of the lowest suicide rate in men. In terms of marital status, the total rate of suicides is highest with widowers then divorced persons, married persons, and lowest rates are with celibates. In all four groups, suicide rates are at least 3 times higher for men. There is also a clear connection between the level of education and suicide rates for both sexes, with the suicide rate decreasing with higher educational level. In terms of total suicide rate, Serbia is currently in the top half of the European list of countries, closer to countries with highest suicide rates than fifteen years ago. Results achieved in other countries, especially in some former communist countries, imply that defining and conducting a strategy for suicide prevention could have significant effect on the decrease of suicides in Serbia as well.

The central part of this paper is devoted to establishing the demographic picture of the City of Belgrade at the beginning of the 21st century. The authors discuss the number of inhabitants and the components of demographic growth through natural increase (fertility and mortality) on the one hand and net migration on the other. Special attention was paid to the problem of refugees (the number and special distribution of refugees). Age and sex structure, the structure by marital status, as well as educational, and economic structures were analyzed. Current ethnic structure, as well as the changes in this structure since the early 1990s, were also presented. The analysis of the demographic picture has made it possible, first of all, to show the implications for the future of the established population trends, and second of all, to single out the basic demographic problems that need to be addressed strategically by the City of Belgrade and by the State.