Suchergebnisse

Trade between Eastern and Western Europe has increased considerably in the last years. Given this market-induced development, why should it be necessary to advance institutional integration? This paper argues that Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) can potentially enhance the credibility of their governments' policies through institutional integration with the EU. The paper discusses the credibility problems faced by the CEECs and shows how EU membership will enhance the institutional setting and the governments' credibility. Based on regression results between an indicator of institutional change and key macroeconomic variables, an estimate of the potential impact of the CEECs' accession to the EU institutional framework on growth in the CEECs is derived.

This paper examines to what extent Eastern Europe trade reorientation towards the West has been driven by market forces versus policies for regional integration. Hierarchical cluster analysis based on bilateral trade intensity reveals the convergence of regional trade structures to the pre-World-War II pattern. Estimates of the expected trade pattern of Eastern Europe with a gravity model predict continuing rising importance of the EU. Furthermore, the assessment of the welfare implications of preferential access to EU markets shows that beneficial effects of trade expansion are likely to outweigh possible distortions. Hence integration policies follow the facts created by the market.

This paper analyzes the GATT negotiations during the Uruguay Round and shows that France was induced to accept a more free trade oriented package due to her integration into the European community. The importance of the European economic and diplomatic relationships led France to accept a GATT deal which she felt would be disadvantageous. Further, the paper investigates how this finding fits into the literature of the political economy of trade policy and how it can be incorporated into a game theoretic model of endogenous tariff making.

This paper describes the construction of a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for Bolivia for the year 1997. Three distinctive features render the SAM a useful starting point for distributional analyses. First, production in the agricultural and services sector is split up into formal and informal activities to account for the fact that poverty is largely confined to the latter. Second, factor and household accounts exhibit a high level of disaggregation, thus permitting the monitoring of the factorial and personal income distribution. Finally, the SAM contains a detailed system of accumulation balances which reveals the distribution of assets among household groups.

Viele WTO-Mitglieder vertiefen und erweitern regionale Integrationsgemeinschaften - trotz bereits allgemein niedriger Meistbegünstigungszollsätze. Dieser Beitrag gibt einen Überblick über die möglichen wohlfahrtssteigernden Effekte einer Handelsliberalisierung zwischen der Europäischen Union (EU) und der Nordamerikanischen Freihandelszone (NAFTA). Den aus der Theorie zu erwartenden Auswirkungen werden quantitative (auf einem Berechenbaren Allgemeinen Gleichgewichtsmodell basierende) Abschätzungen der Effekte einer nordatlantischen Handelsliberalisierung gegenübergestellt. Die Simulationsergebnisse des Berechenbaren Allgemeinen Gleichgewichtsmodells weisen auf eher unbedeutende Größenordnungen der Effekte der nordatlantischen Handelsliberalisierung hin. Der Beitrag diskutiert dieses Resultat und leitet Implikationen für die Handelspolitik der EU und NAFTA ab. ; Many WTO countries continue to deepen and widen regional economic Integration - despite already low rates of most-favored-nation tariffs in most cases. This paper discusses the possible welfare-increasing effects of trade liberalization between the European Union (EU) and the North American Free Trade Area (NAFTA). The conceivable welfare consequences deducted from economic theory are confronted with quantitative estimates, which are based on a computable general equilibrium model. The Simulation results of the computable general equilibrium model point to rather small magnitudes of the welfare effects of North Atlantic liberalization. The paper discusses this finding and derives the implications for trade policies of the EU and NAFTA.

The Eastern enlargement of the European Union (EU) is likely to give a further boost to trade and capital flows, yet empirical evidence on the possible magnitudes is still scarce. This paper uses four different datasets to estimate the determinants of international asset holdings and trade flows. We find in most regressions that EU membership has a significant effect. Based on additional simulations of the expected flows to ten transition economies, we conclude that for the EU candidates actual values are still far below expected ones in most cases. Consequently, we anticipate rising capital and trade flows with the approach of EU accession, in particular for the seven EU candidates besides the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland.

PurposePrevious research on automation and job disruption is only marginally related to the real estate industry and its characteristics. This study investigates the effects of digitization on jobs in German real estate sector, in order to assess the proportion of jobs threatened to be replaced by automation. Since Germany is the largest EU economy insights for the German real estate market allow a first approximation for Europe.Design/methodology/approachAn extensive database of the German Federal Employment Agency containing job definitions and occupation titles is matched with real estate criteria to create a subset with the relevant real estate occupations. This data is combined with a database of the German Institute of Employment Research reflecting to what extent tasks within jobs can be automated by current technical capabilities.FindingsFor the 286 identified occupations within the real estate sector a weighted average of 47 percent substitution probability through current technological capabilities is derived for tasks within the examined occupations.Practical implicationsThis contribution indicates the extent of the structural change the real estate sector has to face due to digitization: One out of two real estate jobs will have to be re-created.Originality/valueThis research quantifies the magnitude of the job killer aspect of digitization in the real estate sector.