Public Opinion and Nuclear Zero: A Domestic Constraint on Ditching the Bomb
In: Politics & policy: a publication of the Policy Studies Organization, Band 39, Heft 6, S. 891-924
ISSN: 1555-5623
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In: Politics & policy: a publication of the Policy Studies Organization, Band 39, Heft 6, S. 891-924
ISSN: 1555-5623
In: PS: political science & politics, Band 44, Heft 4, S. 715-719
Scholars have used cultural theory (CT) to explain risk perceptions and opinion formation across an impressive array of public issues, ranging from environmental, regulatory, and energy policy to public health and economics. Although disparate, all these issues concern domestic policies. This article breaks with this trend by exploring the extent to which CT can help scholars better understand public beliefs about national security. Of critical importance in debates about national security are perceptions of individual versus collective threat and the appropriate role of authoritative institutions in protecting society from these threats. Because CT provides a framework that explicitly addresses these dimensions, national security issues provide an illuminating canvas for evaluating the theory's explanatory utility.
In: PS: political science & politics, Band 44, Heft 4, S. 715-720
ISSN: 0030-8269, 1049-0965
SSRN
Working paper
In: Weather, climate & society, Band 11, Heft 4, S. 881-888
ISSN: 1948-8335
Abstract
As numerical modeling methods and forecasting technologies continue to improve, people may start to see more specific severe weather timing and location information hours before the event occurs. While studies have investigated response actions on the warning time scales, little work has been done to understand what types of actions residents will take given 4–8 h of advance notice for a possible tornado. This study uses data from the 2018 Severe Weather and Society Survey, an annual survey of U.S. adults, to begin analyzing response actions and how those responses differ with either 4 or 8 h of advance notice. Results show that response actions are largely the same between the two time periods. The small differences that do exist show that sheltering behaviors are more common with 4 h of advance notice whereas monitoring behaviors are more common with 8 h of notice. In addition, respondents claimed they would "wait and see" more often in the 8-h category, indicating they would seek additional information before deciding how to respond. Perhaps more important than the types of actions that respondents identify is the increase in those who are unsure of how to react or would choose to do nothing when given 8 h of notice. Respondents may be anchored to the current system and may not have considered all of the possible actions they can take given more time. Therefore, we emphasize the need for education campaigns as technology, forecasts, and desired responses continue to evolve.
In: Public administration: an international journal, Band 94, Heft 4, S. 915-932
ISSN: 1467-9299
Public administration theorists have long argued that values of administrative actors fundamentally shape the quality and nature of the public services they provide. While there has been some work in recent years to measure values in the public sector like Public Service Motivation, we know relatively little about the role that other (more basic) values play in shaping managerial behaviour. To fill this gap, we argue that Cultural Theory (CT), a prominent theory within research on risk and public opinion, provides a general framework for operationalizing and measuring the values of public managers, which (if pursued) allows scholars to directly test important yet untested hypotheses about the relationship between values and managerial decision‐making. To explore this proposition, we use data from a recent survey of American Indian education directors in public school districts to examine the relationship between cultural worldviews and managerial motivation to engage actors in collaborative arrangements.
In: Policy studies journal: the journal of the Policy Studies Organization, Band 42, Heft 4, S. 484-508
ISSN: 1541-0072
This paper evaluates the prospects for application of the "grid/group" cultural theory (CT), as advanced by Mary Douglas and Aaron Wildavsky, to the Advocacy Coalition Theory (ACF). CT would seem to be relevant to several key aspects of the ACF: the content of the core beliefs that provide the "glue" that binds coalitions; the resilience of core beliefs and associated implications for belief change and learning; and the structure of coalitions and the mechanisms for coordination and control within them. The paper considers the compatibility of the ACF's account of deep core beliefs and coalition structure with that of CT; surveys an array of empirical studies based on variations of CT; and extends accounts of change in cultural identities from CT to the ACF. In addition, we highlight some of the ways in which the ACF may offer important theoretical insights for scholars of CT, potentially clarifying hypotheses concerning the relationships among basic worldviews, more specific beliefs, and behaviors.
In: Review of policy research, Band 37, Heft 4, S. 491-510
ISSN: 1541-1338
AbstractTrust is a key component of democratic decision‐making and becomes even more salient in highly technical policy areas, where the public relies heavily on experts for decision making and on the information provided by federal agencies. Research to date has not examined whether the members of the public place different levels of trust in the various agencies that operate within the same policy subsystem, especially in a highly technical subsystem such as that of nuclear energy and waste management. This paper explores public trust in multiple agencies operating within the same subsystem, trust in each agency relative to aggregate trust across agencies that operate within the nuclear waste subsystem, and trust in alternative agencies that have been suggested as possible players in the decision‐making process. We find that trust accorded to different federal agencies within the nuclear waste subsystem varies. The variation in trust is systematically associated with multiple factors, including basic trust in government, perceptions about the risks and benefits of nuclear energy/waste management, party identification, and education. These findings have significant implications for research on public trust in specific government agencies, alternative policy entities, and for policy makers who want to design robust and successful policies and programs in highly technical policy domains.
In: Policy studies journal: the journal of the Policy Studies Organization, Band 42, Heft 4, S. 509-527
ISSN: 1541-0072
Deep core beliefs represent an important yet theoretically underspecified concept within the Advocacy Coalition Framework (ACF). This underspecification can (in part) be attributed to the ad hoc way in which ACF scholars have defined and measured the concept over time. To overcome this, we advocate the development and future use of a standardized metric for measuring deep core beliefs in ACF studies. Such a measure, we contend, should be multidimensional, generalizable, measurable using multiple techniques, and broad enough in scope to operate across virtually all policy domains. Using these criteria as our benchmark, we evaluate the viability of cultural theory (CT) as one such metric. In short, we find that CT meets all of these criteria, and therefore provides ACF scholars with a way to measure deep core beliefs across enduring public policy disputes that are demarcated by conflicting belief systems. Accordingly, we advocate its use in future studies.
In: Journal of benefit-cost analysis: JBCA, Band 11, Heft 1, S. 150-150
ISSN: 2152-2812
In: Journal of benefit-cost analysis: JBCA, Band 11, Heft 1, S. 131-149
ISSN: 2152-2812
AbstractHouseholds in the USA spend about $70 billion annually on pets. Dogs, the most common pet, can be found in nearly half of American households. An important shadow price in the analysis of policies affecting human mortality is the value of statistical life (VSL), which is imputed from how people make decisions involving tradeoffs between small mortality risks and other goods. The value of statistical dog life (VSDL) is also an important, but until now unavailable, shadow price for use in regulation of such goods as pet foods and environmental toxins. Additionally, an estimate of the VSDL would have uses outside the regulatory process in valuing programs involving zooeyia, in setting tort awards for wrongful dog death, and in property divisions in divorce settlements where joint custody of dogs is not feasible. In order to estimate the VSDL, we conducted a contingent valuation of a national sample of dog owners that elicited willingness-to-pay for changes in mortality risk for pet dogs. Specifically, respondents were asked about willingness-to-pay for a vaccine that would reduce the risk of canine influenza. The design included both quantity (different magnitudes of risk reduction from the offered vaccine) and quality (differences in nature of death from the influenza) treatments as scope tests. It also included treatments involving spillover effects to other dogs and a priming question about disposable income. Based on the analysis and consideration of its assumptions, we recommend $10,000 as the VSDL.
SSRN
Working paper
In: Public administration: an international quarterly, Band 94, Heft 4, S. 915
ISSN: 0033-3298
SSRN
Working paper
In: Weather, climate & society, Band 6, Heft 4, S. 520-530
ISSN: 1948-8335
AbstractEffective communication about severe weather requires that providers of weather information disseminate accurate and timely messages and that the intended recipients (i.e., the population at risk) receive and react to these messages. This article contributes to extant research on the second half of this equation by introducing a "real time" measure of public attention to severe weather risk communication based on the growing stream of data that individuals publish on social media platforms, in this case, Twitter. The authors develop a metric that tracks temporal fluctuations in tornado-related Twitter activity between 25 April 2012 and 11 November 2012 and assess the validity of the metric by systematically comparing fluctuations in Twitter activity to the issuance of tornado watches and warnings, which represent basic but important forms of communication designed to elicit, and therefore correlate with, public attention. The assessment finds that the measure demonstrates a high degree of convergent validity, suggesting that social media data can be used to advance our understanding of the relationship between risk communication, attention, and public reactions to severe weather.