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After more than five years have passed since the start of the global financial crisis, many European countries are still suffering from financial instability, surging sover- eign debt, economic stagnation or decline, high unemploym ent and political turmoil. We compare consequences and policy measures during Europe's current crisis with those in Japan in the 1990s after the burst of a real estate and asset price bubble. We show that despite marked differences, there are many simila rities both in eco- nomic outcome and policy reactions. Given the complexity, severity and persistence of Europe's multiple crises, the threat of a Lost Decade similar to the one Japan has witnessed may not be unlikely. The paper concludes by presenting some of the les- sons learned from Japan and Europe.

Based on probit estimates, this paper analyzes the effects of fiscal consolidation on the prob- ability of sovereign defaults in the short run. Using a panel of 104 developing countries from 1980 to 2009 and controlling for various economic, fiscal and political fa ctors, we find that fiscal adjustments in general do not significantly reduce the probability of default even if they are large. Instead, the composition of budget consolidation is decisive in reducing default risk. In contrast to industrialized countries, expenditure based adjustments are not successful while revenue based adjustments lower the probability of default in the following year by 33 to 56 percent. This finding also holds when economic growth is low or government debt is high as well as when IMF lending is taken into account.

We use a panel of 21 OECD countries from 1970 to 2009 to investigate the effects of different fiscal adjustment strategies on long-term interest rates - a key fiscal indicator reflecting the costs of government debt service. A government confronted with high deficits and rising debt will sooner or later need to enact fiscal adjustments in order to avoid solvency problems. Over the last four decades, such measures taken by governments in OECD countries have varied in duration, size, composition and in their success to re-establish fiscal sustainability. Controlling for various economic, fiscal and political factors, we find that the size and the composition of a fiscal adjustment significantly affect interest rates as well as yield spreads. Adjustments that are relatively large and those that primarily depend on expenditure cuts lead to substantially lower long-term interest rates. However, periods of fiscal adjustments do not generally have an influence on interest rates, even if they were successful and led to lower deficits and debt levels. Instead, financial markets only seem to value strict and decisive measures - a clear sign that the government's pledge to cut the deficit is credible.

The current debt crisis in many OECD countries calls for adequate strategies in budget consolidation. To regain fiscal solvency many governments base their fiscal adjustments at least partly on spending cuts. A common political claim is that spending cuts rely too much on investment thereby undermining future long-term growth perspectives. We study the effect of fiscal adjustments on economic growth, consumption and investment for a panel of 20 OECD countries during the 1970-2008 period. Our results support the idea of expansionary consolidations in the case of sizeable adjustments and through spending cuts. The effect is primarily a result of increased consumption rather than investment. While fiscal adjustments also boost private investment, this tends to be offset by a corresponding reduction in government investment. Fiscal consolidations therefore hardly affect total investment.

We use a panel of 21 OECD countries from 1970 to 2009 to investigate the effects of different fiscal adjustment strategies on long-term interest rates - a key fiscal indicator reflecting the costs of government debt service. A government confronted with high deficits and rising debt will sooner or later need to enact fiscal adjustments in order to avoid solvency problems. Over the last four decades, such measures taken by governments in OECD countries have varied in duration, size, composition and in their success to re-establish fiscal sustainability. Control-ling for various economic, fiscal and political factors, we find that the size and the composi-tion of a fiscal adjustment significantly affect interest rates as well as yield spreads. Adjust-ments that are relatively large and those that primarily depend on expenditure cuts lead to substantially lower long-term interest rates. However, periods of fiscal adjustments do not generally have an influence on interest rates, even if they were successful and led to lower deficits and debt levels. Instead, financial markets only seem to value strict and decisive measures - a clear sign that the government's pledge to cut the deficit is credible.

Zur Konjunkturstabilisierung haben Regierungen und Notenbanken in den Jahren 2008 und 2009 schnell und entschlossen mit Impulsprogrammen reagiert. Die erhoffte Wirkung blieb nicht aus, indessen wurden mit den staatlichen Eingriffen neue Probleme geschaffen. Die Staatsverschuldung hat einige Industrienationen an den Rand eines Zahlungsausfalls getrieben. Das Anwachsen der Staatsschuld ist zwar auf viele Gründe und nicht nur auf die Krise zurückzuführen. Die Konsequenz für die betroffenen Staaten bleibt jedoch die gleiche: Ohne Konsolidierung des Staatshaushalts ist eine langfristig tragfähige Wirtschafts- und Finanzpolitik nicht möglich. Die Schweiz steht finanzpolitisch dank der Schuldenbremse, der Zurückhaltung bei Konjunkturprogrammen und den Bemühungen von Bundesrat, Verwaltung und Parlament auf soliden Füssen.

This paper examines the stabilizing effects of Swiss fiscal policy. First, we find that the federation adopted a countercyclical fiscal policy in approximately 60% of all periods observed. During recessions, fiscal policy was always countercyclical and therefore helped to stabilize the economy. In case of the cantons, fiscal policy was countercyclical in 55% of all recessions. In recent years, there has been a trend for both the federation and the cantons toward stronger stabilization. Second, the two stabilizing instruments of fiscal policy, automatic stabilizers and discretionary fiscal policy are compared with each other. Over the last 50 years, automatic stabilizers have been expanded continuously, particularly on the federal level. We find that the impulse of automatic stabilizers is about twice as large as the one of discretionary fiscal policy. Third, macroeconomic effects of Switzerland's fiscal policy during recessions are examined. Automatic stabilizers have been particularly effective in the cantons whereas the effects of discretionary fiscal policy on economic growth have tended to be weaker.

Dieses Papier untersucht die Stabilisierungswirkung der Schweizer Fiskalpolitik. Erstens zeigt sich, dass in etwa 60% der Fälle die verfolgte Fiskalpolitik des Bundes antizyklisch wirkte. In Rezessionen wirkte die Fiskalpolitik des Bundes immer antizyklisch. Im Falle der Kantone wurden knapp 55% der Rezessionen mit einer antizyklischen Fiskalpolitik begleitet. Wie beim Bund geht auch bei den Kantonen der Trend in Richtung stärkerer Stabilisierung. Zweitens wurden die beiden Instrumente der aktiven Konjunkturpolitik, automatische Stabilisatoren und diskretionäre Fiskalpolitik, miteinander verglichen. Über die letzten 50 Jahre sind die automatischen Stabilisatoren insbesondere auf der Bundesebene stark ausgebaut worden. Der Umfang des Impulses der automatischen Stabilisatoren ist dabei etwa doppelt so gross wie jener der diskretionären Fiskalpolitik. Drittens wurden die makroökonomischen Effekte der antizyklischen Fiskalpolitik der Schweiz untersucht. Die automatischen Stabilisatoren zeigten sich insbesondere auf Kantonsebene als effektive Konjunkturstütze, während die Effekte der diskretionären Fiskalpolitik auf den Konjunkturverlauf schwächer ausfielen.

The intention of this paper is to analyse how audit courts and local autonomy affect political discussion, controlling in a multivariate analysis for a broad variety of potential factors focusing on Switzerland, due to its variety of audit court competences and its strong decentralised structure. With data from the World Values Survey 1995-1997 (Swiss data 1996) evidence has been found that a higher audit court competence and a lower level of centralization is correlated with a higher level of political discussion. Thus, the results in Switzerland suggest that such institutions help improve citizens' willingness to acquire information costs and discuss political matters.

Government accountability through electoral engagement, involvement and participation in the political debate can affect government performance. Using data for the full sample of Swiss cantons over the 1981–2001 period, this paper provides empirical evidence that government accountability is crucial for fiscal discipline. Specifically, in cantons with high levels of government accountability, the level of indebtedness is significantly lower, indicating that accountability supports fiscal discipline. To obtain a useful approximation for government accountability between citizens and their representatives, we use information from direct voter participation in political decisions (initiatives and public referenda) in Swiss state (cantonal) governments. Electoral support of government proposals reveals an important aspect of accountability in a real world setting.

Citizens are willing to abandon their short-term financial interest in free-riding considerably, if governments act in their interest, if procedures of the public decisions-making process are felt to be fair and if other fellow-citizens have to contribute also an adequate share to the community. In such a situation trustworthiness of a government and trust in a government is high. This paper provides empirical evidence that trust is crucial for fiscal performance using data for the full sample of Swiss cantons over the 1981-2001 period. In cantons with high levels of trust, the level of indebtedness is significantly lower. Trust supports fiscal discipline. In order to get a useful approximation for mutual trust among citizens and between citizens and their representatives, we use information from direct voter participation on political issues (initiatives and public referenda) held in Swiss state (cantonal) governments. Electoral support of government proposals reveals an important aspect of trust in a real world setting. Hence, our trust variable measures the behavior at the ballots thereby reducing possible subjective biases derived from surveys and questionnaires.

Citizens are willing to abandon their short-term financial interest in free-riding considerably, if governments act in their interest, if procedures of the public decisions-making process are felt to be fair and if other fellow-citizens have to contribute also an adequate share to the community. In such a situation trustworthiness of a government and trust in a government is high. This paper provides empirical evidence that trust is crucial for fiscal performance using data for the full sample of Swiss cantons over the 1981-2001 period. In cantons with high levels of trust, the level of indebtedness is significantly lower. Trust supports fiscal discipline. In order to get a useful approximation for mutual trust among citizens and between citizens and their representatives, we use information from direct voter participation on political issues (initiatives and public referenda) held in Swiss state (cantonal) governments. Electoral support of government proposals reveals an important aspect of trust in a real world setting. Hence, our trust variable measures the behavior at the ballots thereby reducing possible subjective biases derived from surveys and questionnaires.

The intention of this paper is to analyse how audit courts and local autonomy affect political discussion, controlling in a multivariate analysis for a broad variety of potential factors focusing on Switzerland, due to its variety of audit court competences and its strong decentralised structure. With data from the World Values Survey 1995-1997 (Swiss data 1996) evidence has been found that a higher audit court competence and a lower level of centralization is correlated with a higher level of political discussion. Thus, the results in Switzerland suggest that such institutions help improve citizens' willingness to acquire information costs and discuss political matters.

There is a vast empirical literature investigating the relationship between government size and economic growth. But the empirical evidence of growth effects of public expenditure using cross-country regres-sions is still inconclusive. According to a number of authors this is not surprising since the negative rela-tionship only applies for rich countries with a large public sector. Restricting their analysis on rich coun-tries only they can show the predicted negative impact. Naturally, a selection of a sub-sample of rich countries is always somewhat arbitrary. Another possibility is to concentrate on governments within a rich country. However, only few studies investigate the effect of state and local spending on economic growth. This paper concentrates on the relationship between public expenditure and economic growth within a rich country using the full sample of state and local governments from Switzerland over the 1981-2001 period. The general finding is a fairly robust negative relationship between government size and economic growth. However, in contrast to public spending from operating budgets there is no significant impact on economic growth by expenditure from capital budgets.