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International audience The purpose of the paper is twofold. First, it aims at identifying when UK and European (France, Germany, Italy and Spain) Credit Default Swaps (CDSs) exhibit explosivity with respect to their past behaviors. Second, it seeks to quantify the dynamics of CDS volatility spillover effects surrounding the UK's EU membership referendum commonly known as "Brexit". Using a recursive identification algorithm and new spillover measures suggested by Diebold and Yilmaz (2012), two interesting findings were drawn. We detect significant build-ups in CDS prices for all countries under study soon after the day relative to the announcement of Brexit. In addition, we show that the great uncertainty over Brexit generates significant risk spillovers across the underlined CDS. In particular, we find that UK, Italy and Spain are the "net volatility transmitters", while France and Germany seem the "net volatility receivers". Our findings may help in formulating appropriate regulatory policies and designing effective hedging strategies.

Extant theory suggests that terrorist groups strategically plan their attacks around elections. This study investigates the impact of terrorism on voting behavior in the United Kingdom (UK). To address endogeneity concerns related to the possibility that terrorism may be a response to the elections results, we have conducted an instrumental variables approach that relies on the political participation of Commonwealth-origin migrant voters, taking into account the fact that the strength of the Commonwealth's commitment to its principles and values-including the promotion of human and political rights, tolerance, respect for diversity, coexistence, equity and fairness-may affect terror dynamics. In other words, we have connected terrorism to colonial policies and practices. In fact, the colonial rulers had established effective application of economic, social and cultural rights, as well as civil and political rights which would contribute to the success of counter-terrorism strategies. The results indicate that terrorism significantly affects the electorate's preferences. We have also found that the vote of the right-wing party is likely to be higher in localities near the home base of a terror incident and in localities adjacent to international borders, and lower in cities with a noticeable percentage of Muslims. The current UK economic conditions do not work to the advantage of the right-wing party. The results are statistically significant and robust across a multitude of model specifications and differing measures of terrorism.

International audience ; Given the European Union (EU)'s central role in regulating various sectors, the decision to leave poses profound questions for UK industries in upheaval. This paper adopts an event-study methodology to examine, at sectoral level, the dynamics of stock prices surrounding the announcement of the UK's EU membership referendum on 24 June 2016. We find that the adjustment of stock prices is inconsistent with the Uncertain Information Hypothesis assuming that policy changes are typically associated to a decrease of stock prices, but once the uncertainty-induced event is reduced, stock prices would increase again. Analyzing seven sectors of British stock index, we show that the Brexit had a significant impact on the valuation of UK companies. While all industries face increasing uncertainty, the referendum outcome had varying sectoral effects. Specifically, the responses of banks and financial services, defense and airlines, real estate and technology to the Brexit event were even more severe than the reactions of oil and gas, pharmaceuticals and consumer goods. The lack of opportunity to benefit from the European passporting rules to establish businesses, to access to EU's Research and Development funds and to hire the skilled workers have been offered to explain the adverse effects of Brexit on UK industries.

Extant theory suggests that terrorist groups strategically plan their attacks around elections. This study investigates the impact of terrorism on voting behavior in the United Kingdom (UK). To address endogeneity concerns related to the possibility that terrorism may be a response to the elections results, we have conducted an instrumental variables approach that relies on the political participation of Commonwealth-origin migrant voters, taking into account the fact that the strength of the Commonwealth's commitment to its principles and values-including the promotion of human and political rights, tolerance, respect for diversity, coexistence, equity and fairness-may affect terror dynamics. In other words, we have connected terrorism to colonial policies and practices. In fact, the colonial rulers had established effective application of economic, social and cultural rights, as well as civil and political rights which would contribute to the success of counter-terrorism strategies. The results indicate that terrorism significantly affects the electorate's preferences. We have also found that the vote of the right-wing party is likely to be higher in localities near the home base of a terror incident and in localities adjacent to international borders, and lower in cities with a noticeable percentage of Muslims. The current UK economic conditions do not work to the advantage of the right-wing party. The results are statistically significant and robust across a multitude of model specifications and differing measures of terrorism.

International audience ; Given the European Union (EU)'s central role in regulating various sectors, the decision to leave poses profound questions for UK industries in upheaval. This paper adopts an event-study methodology to examine, at sectoral level, the dynamics of stock prices surrounding the announcement of the UK's EU membership referendum on 24 June 2016. We find that the adjustment of stock prices is inconsistent with the Uncertain Information Hypothesis assuming that policy changes are typically associated to a decrease of stock prices, but once the uncertainty-induced event is reduced, stock prices would increase again. Analyzing seven sectors of British stock index, we show that the Brexit had a significant impact on the valuation of UK companies. While all industries face increasing uncertainty, the referendum outcome had varying sectoral effects. Specifically, the responses of banks and financial services, defense and airlines, real estate and technology to the Brexit event were even more severe than the reactions of oil and gas, pharmaceuticals and consumer goods. The lack of opportunity to benefit from the European passporting rules to establish businesses, to access to EU's Research and Development funds and to hire the skilled workers have been offered to explain the adverse effects of Brexit on UK industries.

International audience Given the European Union (EU)'s central role in regulating various sectors, the decision to leave poses profound questions for UK industries in upheaval. This paper adopts an event-study methodology to examine, at sectoral level, the dynamics of stock prices surrounding the announcement of the UK's EU membership referendum on 24 June 2016. We find that the adjustment of stock prices is inconsistent with the Uncertain Information Hypothesis assuming that policy changes are typically associated to a decrease of stock prices, but once the uncertainty-induced event is reduced, stock prices would increase again. Analyzing seven sectors of British stock index, we show that the Brexit had a significant impact on the valuation of UK companies. While all industries face increasing uncertainty, the referendum outcome had varying sectoral effects. Specifically, the responses of banks and financial services, defense and airlines, real estate and technology to the Brexit event were even more severe than the reactions of oil and gas, pharmaceuticals and consumer goods. The lack of opportunity to benefit from the European passporting rules to establish businesses, to access to EU's Research and Development funds and to hire the skilled workers have been offered to explain the adverse effects of Brexit on UK industries.

There is bountiful evidence that political uncertainty stemming from presidential elections or doubt about the direction of future policy make financial markets significantly volatile, especially in proximity to close elections or elections that may prompt radical policy changes. Although several studies have examined the association between presidential elections and stock returns, very little attention has been given to the impacts of elections and election induced uncertainty on stock markets. This paper explores, at sectoral level, the uncertain information hypothesis (UIH) as a means of explaining the reaction of markets to the arrival of unanticipated information. This hypothesis postulates that political uncertainty is greater prior to the elections (relative to pre-election period) but is resolved once the outcome of the elections is determined (relative to post-election period). To this end, we adopt an event-study methodology that examines abnormal return behavior around the election date. We show that collapsing stock returns around the election result is reversed by positive abnormal return on the next day, except some cases where we note negative responses following the vote count. Although Trump's win plunges US into uncertain future, positive reactions of abnormal return are found. Therefore, our results do not support the UIH hypothesis. Besides, the effect of political uncertainty is sector-specific. While some sectors emerged winners (healthcare, oil and gas, real estate, defense, financials and consumer goods and services), others took the opposite route (technology and utilities). The winning industries are generally those that will benefit from the new administration's focus on rebuilding infrastructure, renegotiating trade agreements, reforming tax policy and labour laws, increasing defense funding, easing restrictions on energy production, and rolling back Obamacare.

There is bountiful evidence that political uncertainty stemming from presidential elections or doubt about the direction of future policy make financial markets significantly volatile, especially in proximity to close elections or elections that may prompt radical policy changes. Although several studies have examined the association between presidential elections and stock returns, very little attention has been given to the impacts of elections and election induced uncertainty on stock markets. This paper explores, at sectoral level, the uncertain information hypothesis (UIH) as a means of explaining the reaction of markets to the arrival of unanticipated information. This hypothesis postulates that political uncertainty is greater prior to the elections (relative to pre-election period) but is resolved once the outcome of the elections is determined (relative to post-election period). To this end, we adopt an event-study methodology that examines abnormal return behavior around the election date. We show that collapsing stock returns around the election result is reversed by positive abnormal return on the next day, except some cases where we note negative responses following the vote count. Although Trump's win plunges US into uncertain future, positive reactions of abnormal return are found. Therefore, our results do not support the UIH hypothesis. Besides, the effect of political uncertainty is sector-specific. While some sectors emerged winners (healthcare, oil and gas, real estate, defense, financials and consumer goods and services), others took the opposite route (technology and utilities). The winning industries are generally those that will benefit from the new administration's focus on rebuilding infrastructure, renegotiating trade agreements, reforming tax policy and labour laws, increasing defense funding, easing restrictions on energy production, and rolling back Obamacare.

There certainly is little or no doubt that politicians, sometimes consciously and sometimes not, exert a significant impact on stock markets. The evolving volatility over the Republican Donald Trump's surprise victory in the US presidential election is a perfect example when politicians, through announced policies, send signals to financial markets. The present paper seeks to address whether BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) stock markets equally vulnerable to Trump's plans. For this purpose, two methods were adopted. The first presents an event-study methodology based on regression estimation of abnormal returns. The second is based on vote intentions by integrating data from social media (Twitter), search queries (Google Trends) and public opinion polls. Our results robustly reveal that although some markets emerged losers, others took the opposite route. China took the biggest hit with Brazil, while the damage was much more limited for India and South Africa. These adverse responses can be explained by the Trump's neo-mercantilist attitude revolving around tearing up trade deals, instituting tariffs, and labeling China a " currency manipulator ". However, Russia looks to be benefiting due to Trump's sympathetic attitude towards Vladimir Putin and expectations about the scaling down of sanctions imposed on Russia over its role in the conflict in Ukraine.

There certainly is little or no doubt that politicians, sometimes consciously and sometimes not, exert a significant impact on stock markets. The evolving volatility over the Republican Donald Trump's surprise victory in the US presidential election is a perfect example when politicians, through announced policies, send signals to financial markets. The present paper seeks to address whether BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) stock markets equally vulnerable to Trump's plans. For this purpose, two methods were adopted. The first presents an event-study methodology based on regression estimation of abnormal returns. The second is based on vote intentions by integrating data from social media (Twitter), search queries (Google Trends) and public opinion polls. Our results robustly reveal that although some markets emerged losers, others took the opposite route. China took the biggest hit with Brazil, while the damage was much more limited for India and South Africa. These adverse responses can be explained by the Trump's neo-mercantilist attitude revolving around tearing up trade deals, instituting tariffs, and labeling China a " currency manipulator ". However, Russia looks to be benefiting due to Trump's sympathetic attitude towards Vladimir Putin and expectations about the scaling down of sanctions imposed on Russia over its role in the conflict in Ukraine.

Given the European Union (EU)'s central role in regulating various sectors, the decision to leave poses profound questions for UK industries in upheaval. This paper examines –at sectoral level– the dynamics of stock prices surrounding the announcement of the UK's EU membership referendum on 24 June 2016. Assessing seven sectors of British stock index, we show that the Brexit had a significant impact on the valuation of UK companies. While all industries face increasing uncertainty, the referendum outcome had varying sectoral effects. Specifically, the responses of banks and financial services, defense and airlines, real estate and technology to the Brexit event were even more severe than the reactions of oil and gas, pharmaceuticals and consumer goods. The lack of opportunity to benefit from the European passporting rules to establish businesses, to access to EU's Research and Development funds and to hire the skilled workers have been offered to explain the harmful impact of Brexit uncertainty on UK share sectors.

Given the European Union (EU)'s central role in regulating various sectors, the decision to leave poses profound questions for UK industries in upheaval. This paper examines –at sectoral level– the dynamics of stock prices surrounding the announcement of the UK's EU membership referendum on 24 June 2016. Assessing seven sectors of British stock index, we show that the Brexit had a significant impact on the valuation of UK companies. While all industries face increasing uncertainty, the referendum outcome had varying sectoral effects. Specifically, the responses of banks and financial services, defense and airlines, real estate and technology to the Brexit event were even more severe than the reactions of oil and gas, pharmaceuticals and consumer goods. The lack of opportunity to benefit from the European passporting rules to establish businesses, to access to EU's Research and Development funds and to hire the skilled workers have been offered to explain the harmful impact of Brexit uncertainty on UK share sectors.

The nexus between inflation and its uncertainty has been a topic of wide dispute. Using wavelet decomposition and with special reference to Egypt for the period 1960:M06-2013:M12, we find that the focal relationship varies substantially among the different frequencies involved. In the short-run, inflation expands inflation uncertainty and vice versa. In the medium term, higher inflation leads to greater volatility, while there is no evidence of significant link in the long-run. The main causes of these mixed outcomes have been organized into demand pull factors, cost push ones and the possible reflect of the conflicting underlying objectives pursued to avoid political pitfalls and the great instability that unfolded since 25th January 2011.