Suchergebnisse

International audience ; Based on a theoretical monetary exchange-rate model in continuous time this paper establishes a sequential estimation framework which is capable of indicating central bank intervention in the run-up to a currency union. Using daily pre-EMU exchange-rate data for the countries of the current euro zone, we find mixed evidence of active pre-EMU intervention policies (so-called institutional frontloading strategies). Our estimation framework is highly relevant to economic and political agents operating in financial markets of the upcoming EMU accession countries.

Based on a theoretical monetary exchange-rate model in continuous time this paper establishes a sequential estimation framework which is capable of indicating central bank intervention in the run-up to a currency union. Using daily pre-EMU exchange-rate data for the countries of the current euro zone, we find mixed evidence of active pre-EMU intervention policies (so-called institutional frontloading strategies). Our estimation framework is highly relevant to economic and political agents operating in financial markets of the upcoming EMU accession countries.

The objective of this paper is to investigate which factors - macroeconomic, policy - related or institutional - foster the implementation of structural reforms. To this objective, we look at episodes of structural reforms over three decades across 40 OECD and EU countries and link them to such factors. Our results suggest that structural reforms implementation is more likely during deep recessions and when unemployment rates are high. Moreover, the further distant from best practices, the more likely a country implements reforms. External pressures, such as being subject to a financial assistance programme, or being part of the EU Single Market facilitated pro-competitive reforms. If at all, low interest rates tend to promote rather than discourage structural reforms, while there seems no clear link between fiscal policy and reforms. Moreover, reforms in product markets tend to increase the likelihood of labour market reforms following suit. Many robustness checks have been carried out which confirm our main results.

Well-functioning economic structures are key for resilient and prospering euro area economies. The global financial and sovereign debt crises exposed the limited resilience of the euro area's economic structures. Economic growth was masking underlying weaknesses in several euro area countries. With the inception of the crises, significant efforts have been undertaken by Member States individually and collectively to strengthen resilience of economic structures and the smooth functioning of the euro area. National fiscal policies were consolidated to keep the increase in government debt contained and structural reform momentum increased notably in the second decade, particularly in those countries most hit by the crisis. The strengthened national economic structures were supported by a reformed EU crisis and economic governance framework. However, overall economic structures in euro area countries are still not fully commensurate with the requirements of a monetary union. Moreover, remaining challenges, such as population ageing, low productivity and the implications of digitalisation, will need to be addressed to increase economic resilience and long-term growth.