Machine Learning Estimation of Heterogeneous Causal Effects: Empirical Monte Carlo Evidence
In: IZA Discussion Paper No. 12039
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In: IZA Discussion Paper No. 12039
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In: IZA Discussion Paper No. 10961
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In: IZA Discussion Paper No. 9138
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In: The journal of human resources, Band 57, Heft 2, S. 597-636
ISSN: 1548-8004
In: CESifo Working Paper No. 9037
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Using the Panama Papers, we show that the beginning of media reporting on expropriations and property confiscations in a country increases the probability that offshore entities are incorporated by agents from the same country in the same month. This result is robust to the use of country-year fixed effects and the exclusion of tax havens. Further analysis shows that the effect is driven by countries with non-corrupt and effective governments, which supports the notion that offshore entities are incorporated when reasonably well-intended and well-functioning governments become more serious about fighting organized crime by confiscating proceeds of crime.
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In: CESifo Working Paper No. 7328
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In 2003, Germany moved from a system in which participants in training programs for the unemployed are assigned by caseworkers to an allocation system using vouchers. Based on the rich administrative data for all vouchers and on actual program participation, we provide inverse probability weighting and ordinary least squares estimates of the employment and earnings effects of a voucher award. Our results imply that after the award, voucher recipients experience long periods of lower labor market success. On average, there are only small positive employment effects and no gains in earnings even four years after the voucher award. However, we do find significantly positive effects both for low-skilled individuals and for degree courses. The strong positive selection effects implied by our estimates are consistent with sizeable cream-skimming effects. ; Im Jahr 2003 wurde in Deutschland der Zugang zu Weiterbildungsprogrammen der aktiven Arbeitsmarktpolitik von einer direkten Kurszuweisung durch Sachbearbeitern und Sachbearbeiterinnen zu einem Gutscheinsystem reformiert, bei dem der entsprechende Kurs bei einem beliebigen, zertifizierten Anbieter gewählt werden kann. Auf Basis administrativer Daten von allen Personen die einen Gutschein erhalten haben und allen Weiterbildungsteilnahmen präsentieren wir Beschäftigungs- und Einkommenseffekte einer Zuweisung Arbeitsloser über Gutscheine. Unsere Ergebnisse implizieren, dass nach der Ausgabe eines Gutscheins lange Perioden mit niedrigem Arbeitsmarkterfolg durchlaufen werden. Im Durchschnitt gibt es nur kleine positive Beschäftigungseffekte und keinen Einkommensgewinn, selbst vier Jahre nach Gutscheinausgabe. Wir finden jedoch signifikant positive Effekte sowohl für niedrig Qualifizierte als auch für die Teilnahme an Umschulungen. Unsere Schätzungen implizieren starke positive Selektionseffekte.
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In: IZA Discussion Paper No. 8454
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This dataset was the basis for several studies. It includes individuals who are registered as unemployed at a Swiss regional employment agency in the year 2003. The data contains further information from different unemployment insurance databases (AVAM/ASAL) and social security records (AHV). Additionally, caseworkers employed in the period of 2003 to 2004 were surveyed through a written questionnaire in December 2004. The questionnaire asked about the caseworker's aims and strategies and information about the regional employment agency.