Suchergebnisse

Ovaj rad ispituje uzročnu vezu između diferencijalne kamatne stope (IRD) i međunarodnog kratkoročnog tijeka kapitala (SCF) kako bi se utvrdilo podržava li takav odnos Mundell-Flemingov model u Kini. Proučavajući postojeće strukturne promjene, ustanovili smo da je dugoročni odnos koji koristi podatke iz cijelog uzorka nestabilan, što sugerira da test uzročnosti nije pouzdan. Slijedom toga, koristimo model pomičnih prosjeka vremenskih serija kako bismo preispitali dinamičku uzročnu vezu, a rezultati pokazuju da diferencijalne kamatne stope (IRD) imaju pozitivan i negativan utjecaj na kratkoročni tijek kapitala (SCF) u nekoliko pod-razdoblja, ali SCF ne utječe na IRD u Kini. Prolazeći kroz vanjske i unutarnje šokove, Kina ne bi trebala kratkoročni tijek kapitala (SCF) ograničavati samo na prilagodbu diferencijalne kamatne stope (IRD). Stoga je ključno da donositelji /kreatori politike obrate pozornost na specifične okolnosti (npr. ekonomsku situaciju, monetarnu politiku) te da i dalje primjenjuju kamatnu i fiskalnu politiku kako bi se reducirao negativni utjecaj SCF-a na kinesko gospodarstvo. ; This paper examines the causal relationship between interest rate differential (IRD) and international short-term capital flow (SCF) to determine whether such a relationship in China supports the Mundell-Fleming model. With structural changes existing, we find that long-run relationship using full-sample data is unstable, suggesting that causality test is not reliable. Consequently, we use a time-varying rolling-window approach to revisiting the dynamic causal relationship, and the results show that IRD has both positive and negative impacts on SCF in several sub-periods, but SCF has no effect on IRD in China. When China suffers external and internal shocks, SCF should not be curbed only by adjusting IRD. Therefore, it is critical for policymakers to pay attention to specific backgrounds (e.g. economic situation, monetary policies) and further employ interest rate and fiscal policies in reducing negative influence from SCF on the Chinese economy.

We investigated changes in the financial performance of representatives of
the world?s top 200 commercial banks after the global subprime financial
crisis. Our empirical results show that following the subprime-crisis
disclosure, all commercial banks exhibited worse performance in asset
quality, profitability, liquidity, and growth index, accompanied by risk
increases in asset adequacy, managerial ability, profitability, and growth
index. Developed markets have suffered a greater negative influence than
emerging markets, causing downward pressure on asset adequacy, asset quality,
and profitability since the subprime crisis. Commercial banks within
developed nations suffered more direct pronounced effects from the subprime
crisis than did those in emerging markets. Our results prove that larger
commercial banks, particularly those with larger capitalization, have the
economies-of-scale advantage to resist the negative effects of economic
downturns.

This paper explores how fear sentiment affects the price of Bitcoin by employing the rolling-window Granger causality tests. The analysis reveals negative influences from the volatility index (VIX) to Bitcoin price (BTC), which ascertains that Bitcoin can not be considered a haven in fear sentiment. Due to the liquidity in economic downside risks, BTC may decrease with high VIX to hedge losses, increasing during low VIX periods. The empirical results conflict with the intertemporal capital asset pricing model, which underlines that the increasing VIX can promote the price of Bitcoin. In turn, BTC positively impacts VIX, which shows that Bitcoin price can be treated as the main indicator for a more comprehensive analysis of the fear index. Under severe global uncertainty and changeable fluctuation of market sentiment, investors can optimize investment decisions based on market fear sentiment. The government can also consider VIX to grasp the trend of BTC to participate in cryptocurrency speculation effectively. First published online 18 January 2022

This paper investigates the presence of the bubbles that are experienced in the global vanilla (VNL) price, using the GSADF approach. The results show that there are five bubbles in the VNL price that are driven by specific reasons. Also, in this regard, the opening and ending points of each bubble coincide with specific events that contribute toward the formation, as well as the rupture of the bubbles. It has also been noted that the cyclone Hudah and the monopoly of the cartels trigger the first bubble, while the regulation and export taxation policy drive the second bubble. However, market-oriented policies, the abolition of cartels, and the exchange rate adjustments are the leading factors that form the third bubble. Furthermore, political instability, hurricanes and bad weather are the key factors driving the fourth bubble. And finally, the rising global demand and decreasing supply, price speculation, poor quality, and cyclone Enawo create the last bubble. It needs the VNL market to be more stable in order to continue supply, which can then control the price fluctuations. The minimum role of the cartels and middlemen is vital for VNL price stability. Therefore, the governments should ideally facilitate the big companies to directly negotiate with farmers which may be beneficial for both companies and the farmers alike.