Suchergebnisse

Vorstellung einer Computer-Analyse der Entscheidungsbildung von John F. Kennedy in der Kuba-Krise 1962 zur Überprüfung der Angemessenheit der getroffenen Beschlüsse. Diskussion der Aussagefähigkeit des Untersuchungsmodells für die Beurteilung politischer Handlungsalternativen und Ableitung von Folgerungen insbesondere im Hinblick auf den hohen Wahrscheinlichkeitsgrad schärferer militärischer Gegenmaßnahmen bei verkürzter Bedenkzeit

After a definition of scientific forecasting, the crucial role of assumptions in such forecasts is explicated, & the representations on which forecasting systems are based are discussed. Six variables are introduced to capture differences in sociopolitical forecasting circumstances: level of detail, accuracy, agreement on problem representation, robustness-brittleness, number of variables & interdependencies, & disturbance. A categorization of forecasting approaches -- expert-based, Bayesian, extremal statistical, & rule-based -- is offered. These forecasting approaches are then cross-referenced with forecasting circumstances to produce recommendations for choosing an appropriate forecasting technique in a given policy circumstance. Examples are drawn from the realm of foreign policy & international politics; the cross-referencing section concentrates on foreign energy policy examples. 1 Figure, 21 References. HA.

The election night vote estimation device used in the 1962 Iowa gubernatorial election by Robert W. Clyde, William J. Hemmerle, & T. A. Bancroft (see SA 0827/A8902) was modified & tested by the author in the 1966 Minn gubernatorial election. This system represents a low-cost method for estimating rapidly & accurately final vote ratios in statewide election contests. Minn's 87 counties were placed into homogeneous groupings on the basis of pop & historical voting patterns. Pop statistics from the 1960 census were used. Each county's total Democratic vote was added up for the past 3 gubernatorial elections & divided by the total votes cast, thus yielding a 'historical %' for each county. Strata were defined by pop & historical % to create a minimum N of cells necessary to yield sufficient representation early in the evening, yet enough cells to satisfy reasonably the assumption of homogeneity. The values of estimated final Democratic % & estimated final Republican % were established by computer. County-by-county returns were telephoned to the authors at the computer site throughout election night. Results lead to the conclusion that it is possible to predict aggregate electoral behavior with a high degree of accuracy without explicit reliance on SE variables. No such factors as age, religion, income, occup, etc, were included. It is suggested that in rapid vote estimating, broader sampling categories (eg, historical tendencies) may minimize some of the disruptive & transitory variables which often haunt samples based upon narrower & more select SE factors. 2 Tables. M. Maxfield.