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It is commonly held that political leaders favour people of the same ethnic origin. We test this argument of ethno-political favouritism by studying variations in the usage of maternal health care services across groups in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). More specifically, we link geo-referenced individual-level data from the Demographic and Health Surveys on 601,311 births by 399,908 mothers in 31 countries during the period 1981–2014 with data on the settlement of ethnic groups and their political status. Our results indicate that women benefit from the shift that brings co-ethnics into power, increasing the probability of receiving maternal health care services. The effect strengthens with increased competitiveness around elections. We advance the current literature in four important ways. Firstly, we undertake the first analysis that utilizes shifts in ethno-political status for the same individual, effectively eliminating competing time-invariant explanations to that of shifts in ethno-political status. Secondly, since SSA governments often incorporate multiple groups, we test the effect of patronage on being co-ethnic with cabinet members in general, and not only the president. Thirdly, health services constitute the public good most desired by citizens of SSA. Our measure captures a vital health service that is highly desired across groups. An increase in usage likely reflects genuine trickle-down effects of having co-ethnics in power, a crucial ingredient in building popular support for ethnic patrons. Fourthly, we show that electoral competition is an important conditioner of ethno-political favouritism.

It is commonly held that political leaders favour people of the same ethnic origin. We test this argument of ethno-political favouritism by studying variations in the usage of maternal health care services across groups in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). More specifically, we link geo-referenced individual-level data from the Demographic and Health Surveys on 601,311 births by 399,908 mothers in 31 countries during the period 1981–2014 with data on the settlement of ethnic groups and their political status. Our results indicate that women benefit from the shift that brings co-ethnics into power, increasing the probability of receiving maternal health care services. The effect strengthens with increased competitiveness around elections. We advance the current literature in four important ways. Firstly, we undertake the first analysis that utilizes shifts in ethno-political status for the same individual, effectively eliminating competing time-invariant explanations to that of shifts in ethno-political status. Secondly, since SSA governments often incorporate multiple groups, we test the effect of patronage on being co-ethnic with cabinet members in general, and not only the president. Thirdly, health services constitute the public good most desired by citizens of SSA. Our measure captures a vital health service that is highly desired across groups. An increase in usage likely reflects genuine trickle-down effects of having co-ethnics in power, a crucial ingredient in building popular support for ethnic patrons. Fourthly, we show that electoral competition is an important conditioner of ethno-political favouritism.

It is commonly held that political leaders favour people of the same ethnic origin. We test this argument of ethno-political favouritism by studying variations in the usage of maternal health care services across groups in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). More specifically, we link geo-referenced individual-level data from the Demographic and Health Surveys on 601,311 births by 399,908 mothers in 31 countries during the period 1981–2014 with data on the settlement of ethnic groups and their political status. Our results indicate that women benefit from the shift that brings co-ethnics into power, increasing the probability of receiving maternal health care services. The effect strengthens with increased competitiveness around elections. We advance the current literature in four important ways. Firstly, we undertake the first analysis that utilizes shifts in ethno-political status for the same individual, effectively eliminating competing time-invariant explanations to that of shifts in ethno-political status. Secondly, since SSA governments often incorporate multiple groups, we test the effect of patronage on being co-ethnic with cabinet members in general, and not only the president. Thirdly, health services constitute the public good most desired by citizens of SSA. Our measure captures a vital health service that is highly desired across groups. An increase in usage likely reflects genuine trickle-down effects of having co-ethnics in power, a crucial ingredient in building popular support for ethnic patrons. Fourthly, we show that electoral competition is an important conditioner of ethno-political favouritism. ; publishedVersion ; https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/) which permits non-commercial use, reproduction and distribution of the work without further permission provided the original work is attributed as specified on the SAGE and Open Access page (https://us.sagepub.com/en-us/nam/open-access-at-sage).

Dominant climate models suggest that large parts of Africa will experience greater climatic variability and increasing rates of drought in coming decades. This could have severe societal consequences, because the economies and food supplies of most African countries depend on rain-fed agriculture. According to leading environmental security scholars, policymakers, and nongovernmental organizations, an increase in scarcity-driven armed conflicts should also be expected. A conditional theory of environmental conflict predicts that drought increases the risk of civil war primarily when it strikes vulnerable and politically marginalized populations in agrarian societies. However, an empirical evaluation of this general proposition through a unique gridded dataset of postcolonial Africa, which combines high-resolution meteorological data with georeferenced data on civil war onset and the local ethnopolitical context, shows little evidence of a drought-conflict connection. Instead, the local risk of civil war can be explained by sociopolitical and geographic factors: a politically marginalized population, high infant mortality, proximity to international borders, and high local population density.

Earlier research that reports a correlational pattern between climate anomalies and violent conflict routinely refers to drought-induced agricultural shocks and adverse economic spillover effects as a key causal mechanism linking the two phenomena. Comparing half a century of statistics on climate variability, food production, and political violence across Sub-Saharan Africa, this study offers the most precise and theoretically consistent empirical assessment to date of the purported indirect relationship. The analysis reveals a robust link between weather patterns and food production where more rainfall generally is associated with higher yields. However, the second step in the causal model is not supported; agricultural output and violent conflict are only weakly and inconsistently connected, even in the specific contexts where production shocks are believed to have particularly devastating social consequences. Although this null result could, in theory, be fully compatible with recent reports of food price-related riots, it suggests that the wider socioeconomic and political context is much more important than drought and crop failures in explaining violent conflict in contemporary Africa. ; Creative Commons Attribution 3.0

- ; Earlier research that reports a correlational pattern between climate anomalies and violent conflict routinely refers to drought-induced agricultural shocks and adverse economic spillover effects as a key causal mechanism linking the two phenomena. Comparing half a century of statistics on climate variability, food production, and political violence across Sub-Saharan Africa, this study offers the most precise and theoretically consistent empirical assessment to date of the purported indirect relationship. The analysis reveals a robust link between weather patterns and food production where more rainfall generally is associated with higher yields. However, the second step in the causal model is not supported; agricultural output and violent conflict are only weakly and inconsistently connected, even in the specific contexts where production shocks are believed to have particularly devastating social consequences. Although this null result could, in theory, be fully compatible with recent reports of food price-related riots, it suggests that the wider socioeconomic and political context is much more important than drought and crop failures in explaining violent conflict in contemporary Africa.