Suchergebnisse

This paper analyses the determinants and effects of ECB interventions in times of severe distress. We focus on the Greek government bond market in mid-2010 and use a unique new dataset to show, for the first time, what type of bonds the ECB bought. We then explore the short-term effects of ECB purchases at the bond-level. The results show a large impact of the interventions on the targeted instruments. Bonds bought by the ECB see a much steeper drop in yields than those not bought. This is consistent with theories of "local supply effects" in segmented or illiquid bond markets.

Argentinien durchlebt erneut eine schwere Schulden- und Währungskrise, mitten in einem Wahlkampf, der die Amtszeit von Präsident Macri beenden könnte. Die Autoren stellen dar, dass die Krise auf übermäßige Staatsausgaben und eine exzessive Verschuldung in Fremdwährungen zurückzuführen ist, die mit hoher Inflation und Abwertungsdruck gekoppelt sind. Die Regierung Macri hat in nur zwei Jahren fast 45 Mrd. US-Dollar im Ausland geliehen. Diese Neuverschuldung und die Abwertung des Pesos hat die Schuldenquote auf 80 Prozent des BIP fast verdoppelt. Die daraus resultierende Schuldenlast ist nicht mehr tragfähig und auch ein Rekord-Hilfspaket des IWF über 57 Mrd. US-Dollar konnte eine Verschärfung der Krise nicht verhindern. Die argentinische Regierung kann derzeit ihre Schulden nicht refinanzieren. Die Autoren ziehen die Schlussfolgerung, dass die angekündigte Restrukturierung der Staatschulden ungenügend ist. Eine reine Streckung der Fälligkeiten wird nicht ausreichen, um das Land in die Solvenz zu führen. Die Märkte gehen daher von einem Zahlungsausfall mit hohem Schuldenschnitt aus. ; Argentina is again experiencing a severe debt and currency crisis in the middle of an election campaign that could end President Macri's term in office. The authors argue that the crisis is due to excessive government spending and excessive foreign currency debt, coupled with high inflation and depreciation pressures. The Macri government has borrowed nearly USD 45 billion abroad in just two years. This new debt and the devaluation of the peso have almost doubled the debt ratio to 80 percent of GDP. The resulting debt burden is no longer sustainable and even a record USD 57 billion aid package by the IMF could not prevent the crisis from worsening. The Argentine government is currently unable to refinance its debt. The authors conclude that the announced restructuring of government debt is insufficient. A mere stretching of the maturities is not sufficient to restore debt sustainability. The crisis and debt overhang are therefore likely to continue, potentially with high creditor losses.

Two centuries of Greek debt crises highlight the pitfalls of relying on external financing. Since its independence in 1829, the Greek government has defaulted four times on its external creditors - with striking historical parallels. Each crisis is preceded by a period of heavy borrowing from foreign private creditors. As repayment difficulties arise, foreign governments step in, help to repay the private creditors, and demand budget cuts and adjustment programs as a condition for the official bailout loans. Political interference from abroad mounts and a prolonged episode of debt overhang and financial autarky follows. We conclude that these cycles of external debt and dependence are a perennial theme of Greek history, as well as in other countries that have been "addicted" to foreign savings.