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Because Republican and Democratic elites have polarized in recent decades, American voters increasingly face choices between candidates who hold divergent policy positions. Such a development has potential implications for the way voters process information during campaigns and choose between candidates on election day. Drawing on research in political psychology and using a nationally representative survey-experiment, we argue and find that levels of candidate polarization -- the convergence or divergence of candidates' issue positions -- affect voter information consumption, recall of campaign information, and the balance of on-line and memory-based processing employed in the vote decision. In showing that voters faced with more similar candidates rely more heavily on memory-based processing, we provide further support for hybrid models of political information processing and suggest that candidate polarization has consequences for voter attitude strength and resistance to persuasion. [Reprinted by permission of Sage Publications Inc., copyright holder.]

Because Republican and Democratic elites have polarized in recent decades, American voters increasingly face choices between candidates who hold divergent policy positions. Such a development has potential implications for the way voters process information during campaigns and choose between candidates on election day. Drawing on research in political psychology and using a nationally representative survey-experiment, we argue and find that levels of candidate polarization—the convergence or divergence of candidates' issue positions—affect voter information consumption, recall of campaign information, and the balance of on-line and memory-based processing employed in the vote decision. In showing that voters faced with more similar candidates rely more heavily on memory-based processing, we provide further support for hybrid models of political information processing and suggest that candidate polarization has consequences for voter attitude strength and resistance to persuasion.

The paper examines voters' capacity to determine which of the three main parties (the Liberals, the Conservatives, & the New Democratic Party) was weakest in their constituency in the 1988 Canadian election. We find that half of the voters correctly identified the party that would finish third in their constituency. Voters who did not identify with the third party & who were well informed were generally able to predict correctly which party would finish third. The rational expectations condition did not hold so well among other subgroups of the electorate. 2 Tables, 1 Figure, 8 References. [Copyright 2003 Elsevier Ltd.]

"This book presents a comprehensive examination of public opinion in the democratic world. Built around chapters that highlight key explanatory frameworks used in understanding public opinion, the book presents a coherent study of the subject in a comparative perspective, emphasizing and interrogating immigration as a key issue of high concern to most mass publics in the democratic world. Key features of the book include: covers several theoretical issues and determinants of opinion such as the effects of personality, age and life cycle, ideology, social class, partisanship, gender, religion, ethnicity, language, and media, highlighting over time the effects of political, social, and economic contexts; each chapter explores the theoretical rationale, mechanisms of effect, and use in the scholarly literature on public opinion before applying these to the issue of immigration comparatively and in specific places or regions; widely comparative using a nine-country sample (Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Portugal, Switzerland, United Kingdom and the United States of America) in the analysis of individual-level determinants of public opinion about immigration and extending to other countries like Belgium, Brazil and Japan when evaluating contextual factors. This edited volume will be essential reading for students, scholars, and practitioners interested in public opinion, political behaviour, voting behaviour, politics of the media, immigration, political communication, and, more generally, democracy and comparative politics"--

This book presents a comprehensive examination of public opinion in the democratic world. Built around chapters that highlight key explanatory frameworks used in understanding public opinion, the book presents a coherent study of the subject in a comparative perspective, emphasizing and interrogating immigration as a key issue of high concern to most mass publics in the democratic world. Key features of the book include: Covers several theoretical issues and determinants of opinion such as the effects of personality, age and life cycle, ideology, social class, partisanship, gender, religion, ethnicity, language, and media, highlighting over time the effects of political, social, and economic contexts. Each chapter explores the theoretical rationale, mechanisms of effect, and use in the scholarly literature on public opinion before applying these to the issue of immigration comparatively and in specific places or regions. Widely comparative using a nine-country sample (Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Portugal, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and the United States of America) in the analysis of individual-level determinants of public opinion about immigration and extending to other countries like Belgium, Brazil, and Japan when evaluating contextual factors. This edited volume will be essential reading for students, scholars, and practitioners interested in public opinion, political behaviour, voting behaviour, politics of the media, immigration, political communication, and, more generally, democracy and comparative politics.

As políticas de ação afirmativa implementadas nas universidades públicas no Brasil abrangem três principais grupos: alunos de escolas públicas, alunos de baixa renda e alunos negros e indígenas. Opiniões sobre essa modalidade de política de ação afirmativa mais ampla, especialmente se mensuradas por perguntas diretas, podem ser enviesadas por um efeito de desejabilidade social. Este artigo procura entender se atitudes sobre diferentes tipos de políticas de ação afirmativa são propensas a um efeito de desejabilidade social e quais são os determinantes desse efeito. Para mensurar esse efeito e seus determinantes, um experimento de lista foi aplicado a 12.490 estudantes universitários em 2013. Os resultados revelam que as opiniões sobre os três tipos de políticas de ação afirmativa são propensas a um efeito de desejabilidade social. Ademais, encontramos evidências de que tanto dois determinantes individuais (interesse próprio e preconceito em relação ao grupo-alvo) como um determinante contextual (áreas de conhecimento do curso universitário) explicam o efeito de desejabilidade social.

When the number of observed elections is low, subnational data can be used to perform electoral forecasts. Turgeon and Rennó (2012) applied this solution and proposed three forecasting models to analyze Brazilian presidential elections (1994-2006). The models, adapted from forecasting models of American and French presidential elections, considers economic and political factors. We extend their analysis to the recent presidential elections in Brazil (2010, 2014 and 2018) and find that the addition of the three recent elections does not improve the accuracy of our forecast models although it strengthens the relationship between the explanatory variables and vote for the incumbent. We also find that models based on the popularity of the incumbent outperform those based on trial-heat polls and that electoral forecast models can survive earthquake elections like the 2018 election that led to the unexpected rise of "outsider" and extremist candidate Jair Bolsonaro. ; Cuando el número de elecciones observadas es bajo, se puede usar datos subnacionales para hacer predicciones electorales. Turgeon y Rennó (2012) aplicaron esta solución y propusieron tres modelos de predicción para analizar las elecciones presidenciales brasileñas entre 1994 y 2006. Los modelos, adaptados de los modelos de predicción de elecciones presidenciales de Estados Unidos y Francia, consideran factores económicos y políticos. Extendemos este análisis a las recientes elecciones presidenciales en Brasil (2010, 2014 y 2018) y demostramos que la adicción de las tres elecciones más recientes no mejora la precisión de los modelos predictivos, aunque fortalece la relación entre las variables explicativas y el voto por el titular. También concluimos que los modelos basados en la popularidad del titular superan a los basados en encuestas electorales y que los modelos de predicción electoral pueden sobrevivir a elecciones ruidosas como la de 2018, que condujo al ascenso inesperado de un candidato de la extrema derecha, Jair Bolsonaro. ; Quando o número de ...

When the number of observed elections is low, subnational data can be used to perform electoral forecasts. Turgeon and Rennó (2012) applied this solution and proposed three forecasting models to analyze Brazilian presidential elections (1994-2006). The models, adapted from forecasting models of American and French presidential elections, considers economic and political factors. We extend their analysis to the recent presidential elections in Brazil (2010, 2014 and 2018) and find that the addition of the three recent elections does not improve the accuracy of our forecast models although it strengthens the relationship between the explanatory variables and vote for the incumbent. We also find that models based on the popularity of the incumbent outperform those based on trial-heat polls and that electoral forecast models can survive earthquake elections like the 2018 election that led to the unexpected rise of "outsider" and extremist candidate Jair Bolsonaro. ; Cuando el número de elecciones observadas es bajo, se puede usar datos subnacionales para hacer predicciones electorales. Turgeon y Rennó (2012) aplicaron esta solución y propusieron tres modelos de predicción para analizar las elecciones presidenciales brasileñas entre 1994 y 2006. Los modelos, adaptados de los modelos de predicción de elecciones presidenciales de Estados Unidos y Francia, consideran factores económicos y políticos. Extendemos este análisis a las recientes elecciones presidenciales en Brasil (2010, 2014 y 2018) y demostramos que la adicción de las tres elecciones más recientes no mejora la precisión de los modelos predictivos, aunque fortalece la relación entre las variables explicativas y el voto por el titular. También concluimos que los modelos basados en la popularidad del titular superan a los basados en encuestas electorales y que los modelos de predicción electoral pueden sobrevivir a elecciones ruidosas como la de 2018, que condujo al ascenso inesperado de un candidato de la extrema derecha, Jair Bolsonaro. ; Quando o número de ...