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National audience ; L'objet de cette recherche est d'instruire l'évaluation des effets sur l'emploi des dispositifs contenus dans l'article 1 de la Loi quinquennale pour l'emploi. Nous nous sommes appuyés sur l'ensemble des travaux théoriques et appliqués disponibles ainsi que sur les exercices de simulations variantielles de mesure de politique économique d'allègement des cotisations sociales employeurs, exercices conduits avec des modèles économétriques et des modèles d'équilibre général appliqués.La première partie de l'article présente les diverses conséquences de l'allègement des cotisations sociales sur une catégorie particulière de travail, en insistant sur les incertitudes des analyses traditionnelles. La seconde partie détaille les effets de bouclage macro-économiques, leur traduction dans les modèles économétriques ainsi que les résultats de variantes de baisse de cotisations sociales employeurs testées sur de tels modèles, en comparant leurs résultats et les éventuels motifs de divergence ; elle propose enfin des évaluations fondées sur de nouveaux chiffrages des substitutions factorielles, notamment entre les différentes catégories de travail et sur une représentation du marché du travail en termes de négociations entre entreprises et salariés.

National audience ; L'objet de cette recherche est d'instruire l'évaluation des effets sur l'emploi des dispositifs contenus dans l'article 1 de la Loi quinquennale pour l'emploi. Nous nous sommes appuyés sur l'ensemble des travaux théoriques et appliqués disponibles ainsi que sur les exercices de simulations variantielles de mesure de politique économique d'allègement des cotisations sociales employeurs, exercices conduits avec des modèles économétriques et des modèles d'équilibre général appliqués.La première partie de l'article présente les diverses conséquences de l'allègement des cotisations sociales sur une catégorie particulière de travail, en insistant sur les incertitudes des analyses traditionnelles. La seconde partie détaille les effets de bouclage macro-économiques, leur traduction dans les modèles économétriques ainsi que les résultats de variantes de baisse de cotisations sociales employeurs testées sur de tels modèles, en comparant leurs résultats et les éventuels motifs de divergence ; elle propose enfin des évaluations fondées sur de nouveaux chiffrages des substitutions factorielles, notamment entre les différentes catégories de travail et sur une représentation du marché du travail en termes de négociations entre entreprises et salariés.

National audience ; L'objet de cette recherche est d'instruire l'évaluation des effets sur l'emploi des dispositifs contenus dans l'article 1 de la Loi quinquennale pour l'emploi. Nous nous sommes appuyés sur l'ensemble des travaux théoriques et appliqués disponibles ainsi que sur les exercices de simulations variantielles de mesure de politique économique d'allègement des cotisations sociales employeurs, exercices conduits avec des modèles économétriques et des modèles d'équilibre général appliqués.La première partie de l'article présente les diverses conséquences de l'allègement des cotisations sociales sur une catégorie particulière de travail, en insistant sur les incertitudes des analyses traditionnelles. La seconde partie détaille les effets de bouclage macro-économiques, leur traduction dans les modèles économétriques ainsi que les résultats de variantes de baisse de cotisations sociales employeurs testées sur de tels modèles, en comparant leurs résultats et les éventuels motifs de divergence ; elle propose enfin des évaluations fondées sur de nouveaux chiffrages des substitutions factorielles, notamment entre les différentes catégories de travail et sur une représentation du marché du travail en termes de négociations entre entreprises et salariés.

59 pages ; This paper propose an assessment for European Commission 'Package of Implementation measures for the EU's objectives on climate change and renewable energy for 2020', that was agreed the 23 January 2008. The policy assessment uses macroeconomic modeling tools: NEMESIS economic macro-econometric model, for which additional developments were needed to be able to implement strictly the directive proposals includes in EU 'Energy and Environment' package. A new module for energy demand and environment was developed to extend from EU-15 to EU-27 NEMESIS set of energy and environment indicators, with also an extension for biomass (including biofuels) and all renewable categories. The focus puts on the economic consequences in 2020 of the joint implementation of the 'EU ETS review', 'non ETS effort-sharing' and 'renewables' directive and decision proposals. Different scenarios are explored depending on the way auctioning revenues are recycled by States, and compared on the basis of economic and environmental efficiency criteria defined by the Commission. In Scenario S1, auctioning revenue is kept by states and is used for decreasing national debt. There is no recycling through public investment or revenue redistribution to private agents. In scenario S2, the revenue of auctioning in the EU ETS sector is recycled through an equivalent reduction, in terms of revenue, of employers' social contribution rate. In scenario S3, auctioning revenue is recycled in two ways: A reduction, as in scenario S2, of employers' social contributions rate, and a general subsidy to private R&D expenditures up to 30 %. The R&D subsidy in calculated first, and only the difference between auctioning revenue and R&D subsidies is used to reduce employers' social contribution rate. The main important results are that the implementation of EU Climate Action and Renewable 1Energy Package should have only a limited cost in terms of GDP for EU-27, or even a negative one, depending the way auctioning revenues are recycled by Member States; important gains could be obtained for consumers if recycling of auctioning revenue is used to increase households' disposable income; employment could also be importantly stimulated if the recycling of revenue, and the stimulation of households' final consumption, passes through a reduction of labor cost and not by an increase in social transfers that could impact negatively on European firms competitiveness; and lastly the application of the community solidarity principle could EU Climate Action and Renewable Energy Package represent an important opportunity for growth and employment in EU countries with GDP below European average like Romania and Poland, that are also very carbon intensive.

59 pages ; This paper propose an assessment for European Commission 'Package of Implementation measures for the EU's objectives on climate change and renewable energy for 2020', that was agreed the 23 January 2008. The policy assessment uses macroeconomic modeling tools: NEMESIS economic macro-econometric model, for which additional developments were needed to be able to implement strictly the directive proposals includes in EU 'Energy and Environment' package. A new module for energy demand and environment was developed to extend from EU-15 to EU-27 NEMESIS set of energy and environment indicators, with also an extension for biomass (including biofuels) and all renewable categories. The focus puts on the economic consequences in 2020 of the joint implementation of the 'EU ETS review', 'non ETS effort-sharing' and 'renewables' directive and decision proposals. Different scenarios are explored depending on the way auctioning revenues are recycled by States, and compared on the basis of economic and environmental efficiency criteria defined by the Commission. In Scenario S1, auctioning revenue is kept by states and is used for decreasing national debt. There is no recycling through public investment or revenue redistribution to private agents. In scenario S2, the revenue of auctioning in the EU ETS sector is recycled through an equivalent reduction, in terms of revenue, of employers' social contribution rate. In scenario S3, auctioning revenue is recycled in two ways: A reduction, as in scenario S2, of employers' social contributions rate, and a general subsidy to private R&D expenditures up to 30 %. The R&D subsidy in calculated first, and only the difference between auctioning revenue and R&D subsidies is used to reduce employers' social contribution rate. The main important results are that the implementation of EU Climate Action and Renewable 1Energy Package should have only a limited cost in terms of GDP for EU-27, or even a negative one, depending the way auctioning revenues are recycled by Member States; important gains could be obtained for consumers if recycling of auctioning revenue is used to increase households' disposable income; employment could also be importantly stimulated if the recycling of revenue, and the stimulation of households' final consumption, passes through a reduction of labor cost and not by an increase in social transfers that could impact negatively on European firms competitiveness; and lastly the application of the community solidarity principle could EU Climate Action and Renewable Energy Package represent an important opportunity for growth and employment in EU countries with GDP below European average like Romania and Poland, that are also very carbon intensive.

59 pages ; This paper propose an assessment for European Commission 'Package of Implementation measures for the EU's objectives on climate change and renewable energy for 2020', that was agreed the 23 January 2008. The policy assessment uses macroeconomic modeling tools: NEMESIS economic macro-econometric model, for which additional developments were needed to be able to implement strictly the directive proposals includes in EU 'Energy and Environment' package. A new module for energy demand and environment was developed to extend from EU-15 to EU-27 NEMESIS set of energy and environment indicators, with also an extension for biomass (including biofuels) and all renewable categories. The focus puts on the economic consequences in 2020 of the joint implementation of the 'EU ETS review', 'non ETS effort-sharing' and 'renewables' directive and decision proposals. Different scenarios are explored depending on the way auctioning revenues are recycled by States, and compared on the basis of economic and environmental efficiency criteria defined by the Commission. In Scenario S1, auctioning revenue is kept by states and is used for decreasing national debt. There is no recycling through public investment or revenue redistribution to private agents. In scenario S2, the revenue of auctioning in the EU ETS sector is recycled through an equivalent reduction, in terms of revenue, of employers' social contribution rate. In scenario S3, auctioning revenue is recycled in two ways: A reduction, as in scenario S2, of employers' social contributions rate, and a general subsidy to private R&D expenditures up to 30 %. The R&D subsidy in calculated first, and only the difference between auctioning revenue and R&D subsidies is used to reduce employers' social contribution rate. The main important results are that the implementation of EU Climate Action and Renewable 1Energy Package should have only a limited cost in terms of GDP for EU-27, or even a negative one, depending the way auctioning revenues are recycled by ...

Recent calls to do climate policy research with, rather than for, stakeholders have been answered in non-modelling science. Notwithstanding progress in modelling literature, however, very little of the scenario space traces back to what stakeholders are ultimately concerned about. With a suite of eleven integrated assessment, energy system and sectoral models, we carry out a model inter-comparison for the EU, the scenario logic and research questions of which have been formulated based on stakeholders' concerns. The output of this process is a scenario framework exploring where the region is headed rather than how to achieve its goals, extrapolating its current policy efforts into the future. We find that Europe is currently on track to overperforming its pre-2020 40% target yet far from its newest ambition of 55% emissions cuts by 2030, as well as looking at a 1.0–2.35 GtCO2 emissions range in 2050. Aside from the importance of transport electrification, deployment levels of carbon capture and storage are found intertwined with deeper emissions cuts and with hydrogen diffusion, with most hydrogen produced post-2040 being blue. Finally, the multi-model exercise has highlighted benefits from deeper decarbonisation in terms of energy security and jobs, and moderate to high renewables-dominated investment needs.

Recent calls to do climate policy research with, rather than for, stakeholders have been answered in non-modelling science. Notwithstanding progress in modelling literature, however, very little of the scenario space traces back to what stakeholders are ultimately concerned about. With a suite of eleven integrated assessment, energy system and sectoral models, we carry out a model inter-comparison for the EU, the scenario logic and research questions of which have been formulated based on stakeholders' concerns. The output of this process is a scenario framework exploring where the region is headed rather than how to achieve its goals, extrapolating its current policy efforts into the future. We find that Europe is currently on track to overperforming its pre-2020 40% target yet far from its newest ambition of 55% emissions cuts by 2030, as well as looking at a 1.0–2.35 GtCO2 emissions range in 2050. Aside from the importance of transport electrification, deployment levels of carbon capture and storage are found intertwined with deeper emissions cuts and with hydrogen diffusion, with most hydrogen produced post-2040 being blue. Finally, the multi-model exercise has highlighted benefits from deeper decarbonisation in terms of energy security and jobs, and moderate to high renewables-dominated investment needs. ; publishedVersion

Recent calls to do climate policy research with, rather than for, stakeholders have been answered in nonmodellingscience. Notwithstanding progress in modelling literature, however, very little of the scenario spacetraces back to what stakeholders are ultimately concerned about. With a suite of eleven integrated assessment,energy system and sectoralmodels, we carry out amodel inter-comparison for the EU, the scenario logic and researchquestions of which have been formulated based on stakeholders' concerns. The output of this process is ascenario framework exploring where the region is headed rather than how to achieve its goals, extrapolating itscurrent policy efforts into the future. We find that Europe is currently on track to overperforming its pre-202040% target yet far from its newest ambition of 55% emissions cuts by 2030, as well as looking at a 1.0–2.35 GtCO2 emissions range in 2050. Aside from the importance of transport electrification, deployment levels of carboncapture and storage are found intertwined with deeper emissions cuts and with hydrogen diffusion, withmost hydrogen produced post-2040 being blue. Finally, the multi-model exercise has highlighted benefitsfrom deeper decarbonisation in terms of energy security and jobs, and moderate to high renewablesdominatedinvestment needs.