Effects of polypropylene carbonate coating on the degradation and biocompatibility of degradable magnesium alloy AZ31
In: Proceedings of the Estonian Academy of Sciences, Band 68, Heft 1, S. 13
ISSN: 1736-7530
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In: Proceedings of the Estonian Academy of Sciences, Band 68, Heft 1, S. 13
ISSN: 1736-7530
The activities of debris flow (DF) in the Wenchuan earthquake-affected area significantly increased after the earthquake on 12 May 2008. The safety of the lives and property of local people is threatened by DFs. A physics-based early warning system (EWS) for DF forecasting was developed and applied in this earthquake area. This paper introduces an application of the system in the Wenchuan earthquake-affected area and analyzes the prediction results via a comparison to the DF events triggered by the strong rainfall events reported by the local government. The prediction accuracy and efficiency was first compared with a contribution-factor-based system currently used by the weather bureau of Sichuan province. The storm on 17 August 2012 was used as a case study for this comparison. The comparison shows that the false negative rate and false positive rate of the new system is, respectively, 19 and 21 % lower than the system based on the contribution factors. Consequently, the prediction accuracy is obviously higher than the system based on the contribution factors with a higher operational efficiency. On the invitation of the weather bureau of Sichuan province, the authors upgraded their prediction system of DF by using this new system before the monsoon of Wenchuan earthquake-affected area in 2013. Two prediction cases on 9 July 2013 and 10 July 2014 were chosen to further demonstrate that the new EWS has high stability, efficiency, and prediction accuracy.
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In: Natural hazards and earth system sciences: NHESS, Band 16, Heft 2, S. 483-496
ISSN: 1684-9981
Abstract. The activities of debris flow (DF) in the Wenchuan earthquake-affected area significantly increased after the earthquake on 12 May 2008. The safety of the lives and property of local people is threatened by DFs. A physics-based early warning system (EWS) for DF forecasting was developed and applied in this earthquake area. This paper introduces an application of the system in the Wenchuan earthquake-affected area and analyzes the prediction results via a comparison to the DF events triggered by the strong rainfall events reported by the local government. The prediction accuracy and efficiency was first compared with a contribution-factor-based system currently used by the weather bureau of Sichuan province. The storm on 17 August 2012 was used as a case study for this comparison. The comparison shows that the false negative rate and false positive rate of the new system is, respectively, 19 and 21 % lower than the system based on the contribution factors. Consequently, the prediction accuracy is obviously higher than the system based on the contribution factors with a higher operational efficiency. On the invitation of the weather bureau of Sichuan province, the authors upgraded their prediction system of DF by using this new system before the monsoon of Wenchuan earthquake-affected area in 2013. Two prediction cases on 9 July 2013 and 10 July 2014 were chosen to further demonstrate that the new EWS has high stability, efficiency, and prediction accuracy.
The activities of debris flow (DF) in the Wenchuan earthquake-affected area significantly increased after the earthquake on 12 May 2008. The safety of the lives and property of local people is threatened by DFs. A physics-based early warning system (EWS) for DF forecasting was developed and applied in this earthquake area. This paper introduces an application of the system in the Wenchuan earthquake-affected area and analyzes the prediction results via a comparison to the DF events triggered by the strong rainfall events reported by the local government. The prediction accuracy and efficiency was first compared with a contribution-factor-based system currently used by the weather bureau of Sichuan province. The storm on 17 August 2012 was used as a case study for this comparison. The comparison shows that the false negative rate and false positive rate of the new system is, respectively, 19 and 21 % lower than the system based on the contribution factors. Consequently, the prediction accuracy is obviously higher than the system based on the contribution factors with a higher operational efficiency. On the invitation of the weather bureau of Sichuan province, the authors upgraded their prediction system of DF by using this new system before the monsoon of Wenchuan earthquake-affected area in 2013. Two prediction cases on 9 July 2013 and 10 July 2014 were chosen to further demonstrate that the new EWS has high stability, efficiency, and prediction accuracy.
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In: Natural hazards and earth system sciences: NHESS, Band 13, Heft 8, S. 2065-2074
ISSN: 1684-9981
Abstract. This paper presents a validation and confutation analysis using the methods of the robust satellite data analysis technique (RST) to detect seismic anomalies within the bi-angular Advanced Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (AATSR) data based on spatial/temporal continuity analysis. The distinguishing feature of our method is that we carried out a comparative analysis of seismic anomalies from bi-directional observation, which could help understanding seismic thermal infrared (TIR) anomalies. The proposed method has been applied to analyse bi-angular AATSR gridded brightness temperature data with longitude from 5 to 25° E and latitude from 35 to 50° N associated with the earthquake that occurred in Abruzzo, Italy, on 6 April 2009, and a full data set of 7 yr data from 2003 to 2009 during the months of March and April has been analysed for validation purposes. Unperturbed periods (March–April 2008) have been considered for confutation analysis. Combining with the tectonic explanation of spatial and temporal continuity of the abnormal phenomena, along with the analysed results, a number of anomalies could be associated with possible seismic activities, which follow the same time and space. Therefore, we conclude that the anomalies observed from 29 March 2009 to 5 April 2009, about eight days before the Abruzzo earthquake, could be earthquake anomalies.
© 2018 Elsevier Ltd Ecosystem services (the benefits to humans from ecosystems) are estimated globally at $125 trillion/year [1, 2]. Similar assessments at national and regional scales show how these services support our lives [3]. All valuations recognize the role of biodiversity, which continues to decrease around the world in maintaining these services [4, 5]. The giant panda epitomizes the flagship species [6]. Its unrivalled public appeal translates into support for conservation funding and policy, including a tax on foreign visitors to support its conservation [7]. The Chinese government has established a panda reserve system, which today numbers 67 reserves [8, 9]. The biodiversity of these reserves is among the highest in the temperate world [10], covering many of China's endemic species [11]. The panda is thus also an umbrella species [12]—protecting panda habitat also protects other species. Despite the benefits derived from pandas, some journalists have suggested that it would be best to let the panda go extinct. With the recent downlisting of the panda from Endangered to Vulnerable, it is clear that society's investment has started to pay off in terms of panda population recovery [13, 14]. Here, we estimate the value of ecosystem services of the panda and its reserves at between US$2.6 and US$6.9 billion/year in 2010. Protecting the panda as an umbrella species and the habitat that supports it yields roughly 10–27 times the cost of maintaining the current reserves, potentially further motivating expansion of the reserves and other investments in natural capital in China. Wei et al. estimate that the value of ecosystem services of the giant panda and its nature reserves was US$2.6–US$6.9 billion/year in 2010. Protecting the panda and its habitat yields roughly 10–27 times the cost of maintaining the current reserves, potentially motivating expansion of the reserves and other investments in natural capital in China.
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Additional grant support pilot study cohorts: The CODECS study is supported by a grant from Stichting Coolsingel, the Netherlands. Funding for the PROCRAS study was obtained through ZonMw as part of the 'TopZorg' project in 2015 (grant # 842003011). The CU-STRIDE study was funded by the Health and Health Services Research Fund (0708041) of the Food and Health Bureau of the Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region. The CU-RISK study was funded by General Research Fund (grant number GRF CUHK 471911), the National Key Research and Development Program of China (grant number 2016YFC1300600), and the Lui Che Woo Institute of Innovative Medicine, and Therese Pei Fong Chow Research Center for Prevention of Dementia (in memory of Donald H. K. Chow). The Mild Stroke Study 2 was funded by the Wellcome Trust (WT088134/Z/09/A), the Row Fogo Charitable Trust and Chest Heart & Stroke Scotland (long-term follow-up, ref no: Res14/A157). J.M.W. is supported by the Fondation Leducq Transatlantic Network of Excellence for the Study of Perivascular Spaces in Small Vessel Disease (ref no. 16 CVD 05) and the UK Dementia Research Institute at The University of Edinburgh. O.K.L.H. is supported by the College of Medicine and Veterinary Medicine at the University of Edinburgh and the Wellcome Trust. ; Peer reviewed ; Publisher PDF
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China, with its growing population and economic development, faces increasing risks to health from climate change, but also opportunities to address these risks and protect health for generations to come. Without a timely and adequate response, climate change will impact lives and livelihoods at an accelerated rate. In 2020, the Lancet Countdown Regional Centre in Asia, led by Tsinghua University, built on the work of the global Lancet Countdown and began its assessment of the health profile of climate change in China with the aim of triggering rapid and health-responsive actions. This 2021 report is the first annual update, presenting 25 indicators within five domains: climate change impacts, exposures, and vulnerability; adaptation, planning, and resilience for health; mitigation actions and health co-benefits; economics and finance; and public and political engagement. The report represents the contributions of 88 experts from 25 leading institutions in, and outside of, China. From 2020 to 2021, five new indicators have been added and methods have been improved for many indicators. Where possible, the indicator results are presented at national and provincial levels to facilitate local understanding and policy making. In a year marked by COVID-19, this report also endeavours to reflect on China's pathway for a green recovery, ensuring it aligns with the carbon neutrality goal, for the health of the current and future generations.
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China, with its growing population and economic development, faces increasing risks to health from climate change, but also opportunities to address these risks and protect health for generations to come. Without a timely and adequate response, climate change will impact lives and livelihoods at an accelerated rate. In 2020, the Lancet Countdown Regional Centre in Asia, led by Tsinghua University, built on the work of the global Lancet Countdown and began its assessment of the health profile of climate change in China with the aim of triggering rapid and health-responsive actions. This 2021 report is the first annual update, presenting 25 indicators within five domains: climate change impacts, exposures, and vulnerability; adaptation, planning, and resilience for health; mitigation actions and health co-benefits; economics and finance; and public and political engagement. The report represents the contributions of 88 experts from 25 leading institutions in, and outside of, China. From 2020 to 2021, five new indicators have been added and methods have been improved for many indicators. Where possible, the indicator results are presented at national and provincial levels to facilitate local understanding and policy making. In a year marked by COVID-19, this report also endeavours to reflect on China's pathway for a green recovery, ensuring it aligns with the carbon neutrality goal, for the health of the current and future generations.
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Novel species of fungi described in this study include those from various countries as follows: Antartica, Cladosporium austrolitorale from coastal sea sand. Australia, Austroboletus yourkae on soil, Crepidotus innuopurpureus on dead wood, Curvularia stenotaphri from roots and leaves of Stenotaphrum secundatum and Thecaphora stajsicii from capsules of Oxalis radicosa. Belgium, Paraxerochrysium coryli (incl. Paraxerochrysium gen. nov.) from Corylus avellana. Brazil, Calvatia nordestina on soil, Didymella tabebuiicola from leaf spots on Tabebuia aurea, Fusarium subflagellisporum from hypertrophied floral and vegetative branches of Mangifera indica and Microdochium maculosum from living leaves of Digitaria insularis. Canada, Cuphophyllus bondii fromagrassland. Croatia, Mollisia inferiseptata from a rotten Laurus nobilis trunk. Cyprus, Amanita exilis oncalcareoussoil. Czech Republic, Cytospora hippophaicola from wood of symptomatic Vaccinium corymbosum. Denmark, Lasiosphaeria deviata on pieces of wood and herbaceousdebris. Dominican Republic, Calocybella goethei among grass on a lawn. France (Corsica) , Inocybe corsica onwetground. France (French Guiana) , Trechispora patawaensis on decayed branch of unknown angiosperm tree and Trechispora subregularis on decayed log of unknown angiosperm tree. [.] ; P.R. Johnston thanks J. Sullivan (Lincoln University) for the habitat image of Kowai Bush, Duckchul Park (Manaaki Whenua – Landcare Research) for the DNA sequencing, and the New Zealand Department of Conservation for permission to collect the specimens; this research was supported through the Manaaki Whenua – Landcare Research Biota Portfolio with funding from the Science and Innovation Group of the New Zealand Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment. V. Hubka was supported by the Czech Ministry of Health (grant number NU21-05-00681), and is grateful for the support from the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science – grant-in-aid for JSPS research fellow (grant no. 20F20772). K. Glässnerová was supported by the Charles University Grant Agency (grant No. GAUK 140520). J. Trovão and colleagues were financed by FEDERFundo Europeu de Desenvolvimento Regional funds through the COMPETE 2020 – Operational Programme for Competitiveness and Internationalisation (POCI), and by Portuguese funds through FCT – Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia in the framework of the project POCI-01-0145-FEDER-PTDC/ EPH-PAT/3345/2014. This work was carried out at the R&D Unit Centre for Functional Ecology – Science for People and the Planet (CFE), with reference UIDB/04004/2020, financed by FCT/MCTES through national funds (PIDDAC). J. Trovão was also supported by POCH – Programa Operacional Capital Humano (co-funding by the European Social Fund and national funding by MCTES), through a 'FCT – Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia' PhD research grant (SFRH/BD/132523/2017). D. Haelewaters acknowledges support from the Research Foundation – Flanders (Junior Postdoctoral Fellowship 1206620N). M. Loizides and colleagues are grateful to Y. Cherniavsky for contributing collections AB A12-058-1 and AB A12- 058-2, and Á. Kovács and B. Kiss for their help with molecular studies of these specimens. C. Zmuda is thanked for assisting with the collection of ladybird specimens infected with Hesperomyces parexochomi. A.V. Kachalkin and colleagues were supported by the Russian Science Foundation (grant No. 19-74-10002). The study of A.M. Glushakova was carried out as part of the Scientific Project of the State Order of the Government of Russian Federation to Lomonosov Moscow State University No. 121040800174-6. S. Nanu acknowledges the Kerala State Council for Science, Technology and Environment (KSCSTE) for granting a research fellowship and is grateful to the Chief Conservator of Forests and Wildlife for giving permission to collect fungal samples. A. Bañares and colleagues thank L. Monje and A. Pueblas of the Department of Drawing and Scientific Photography at the University of Alcalá for their help in the digital preparation of the photographs, and J. Rejos, curator of the AH herbarium for his assistance with the specimens examined in the present study. The research of V. Antonín received institutional support for long-term conceptual development of research institutions provided by the Ministry of Culture (Moravian Museum, ref. MK000094862). The studies of E.F. Malysheva, V.F. Malysheva, O.V. Morozova, and S.V. Volobuev were carried out within the framework of a research project of the Komarov Botanical Institute RAS, St Petersburg, Russia (АААА-А18-118022090078-2) using equipment of its Core Facility Centre 'Cell and Molecular Technologies in Plant Science'.The study of A.V. Alexandrova was carried out as part of the Scientific Project of the State Order of the Government of Russian Federation to Lomonosov Moscow State University No. 121032300081-7. The Kits van Waveren Foundation (Rijksherbariumfonds Dr E. Kits van Waveren, Leiden, Netherlands) contributed substantially to the costs of sequencing and travelling expenses for M.E. Noordeloos. The work of B. Dima was partly supported by the ÚNKP- 20-4 New National Excellence Program of the Ministry for Innovation and Technology from the source of the National Research, Development and Innovation Fund. The work of L. Nagy was supported by the 'Momentum' program of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences (contract No. LP2019- 13/2019 to L.G.N.). G.A. Kochkina and colleagues acknowledge N. Demidov for the background photograph, and N. Suzina for the SEM photomicrograph. The research of C.M. Visagie and W.J. Nel was supported by the National Research Foundation grant no 118924 and SFH170610239162. C. Gil-Durán acknowledges Agencia Nacional de Investigación y Desarrollo, Ministerio de Ciencia, Tecnología, Conocimiento e Innovación, Gobierno de Chile, for grant ANID – Fondecyt de Postdoctorado 2021 – N° 3210135. R. Chávez and G. Levicán thank DICYT-USACH and acknowledges the grants INACH RG_03-14 and INACH RT_31-16 from the Chilean Antarctic Institute, respectively. S. Tiwari and A. Baghela would like to acknowledge R. Avchar and K. Balasubramanian from the Agharkar Research Institute, Pune, Maharashtra for helping with the termite collection. S. Tiwari is also thankful to the University Grants Commission, Delhi (India) for a junior research fellowship (827/(CSIR-UGC NET DEC.2017)). R. Lebeuf and I. Saar thank D. and H. Spencer for collecting and photographing the holotype of C. bondii, and R. Smith for photographing the habitat. A. Voitk is thanked for helping with the colour plate and review of the manuscript, and the Foray Newfoundland and Labrador for providing the paratype material. I. Saar was supported by the Estonian Research Council (grant PRG1170) and the European Regional Development Fund (Centre of Excellence EcolChange). M.P.S. Câmara acknowledges the 'Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico – CNPq' for the research productivity fellowship, and financial support (Universal number 408724/2018-8). W.A.S. Vieira acknowledges the 'Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento Pessoal de Ensino Superior – CAPES' and the 'Programa Nacional de Pós-Doutorado/CAPES – PNPD/CAPES' for the postdoctoral fellowship. A.G.G. Amaral acknowledges CNPq, and A.F. Lima and I.G. Duarte acknowledge CAPES for the doctorate fellowships. F. Esteve-Raventós and colleagues were financially supported by FEDER/ Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades – Agencia Estatal de Investigación (Spain)/ Project CGL2017-86540-P. The authors would like to thank L. Hugot and N. Suberbielle (Conservatoire Botanique National de Corse, Office de l'Environnement de la Corse, Corti) for their help. The research of E. Larsson is supported by The Swedish Taxonomy Initiative, SLU Artdatabanken, Uppsala. Financial support was provided to R.J. Ferreira by the National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq), and to I.G. Baseia, P.S.M. Lúcio and M.P. Martín by the National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq) under CNPq-Universal 2016 (409960/2016-0) and CNPq-visiting researcher (407474/2013-7). J. Cabero and colleagues wish to acknowledge A. Rodríguez for his help to describe Genea zamorana, as well as H. Hernández for sharing information about the vegetation of the type locality. S. McMullan-Fisher and colleagues acknowledge K. Syme (assistance with illustrations), J. Kellermann (translations), M. Barrett (collection, images and sequences), T. Lohmeyer (collection and images) and N. Karunajeewa (for prompt accessioning). This research was supported through funding from Australian Biological Resources Study grant (TTC217-06) to the Royal Botanic Gardens Victoria. The research of M. Spetik and co-authors was supported by project No. CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0 /16_017/0002334. N. Wangsawat and colleagues were partially supported by NRCT and the Royal Golden Jubilee Ph.D. programme, grant number PHD/0218/2559. They are thankful to M. Kamsook for the photograph of the Phu Khiao Wildlife Sanctuary and P. Thamvithayakorn for phylogenetic illustrations. The study by N.T. Tran and colleagues was funded by Hort Innovation (Grant TU19000). They also thank the turf growers who supported their surveys and specimen collection. N. Matočec, I. Kušan, A. Pošta, Z. Tkalčec and A. Mešić thank the Croatian Science Foundation for their financial support under the project grant HRZZ-IP-2018-01-1736 (ForFungiDNA). A. Pošta thanks the Croatian Science Foundation for their support under the grant HRZZ-2018-09-7081. A. Morte is grateful to Fundación Séneca – Agencia de Ciencia y Tecnología de la Región de Murcia (20866/ PI/18) for financial support. The research of G. Akhmetova, G.M. Kovács, B. Dima and D.G. Knapp was supported by the National Research, Development and Innovation Office, Hungary (NKFIH KH-130401 and K-139026), the ELTE Thematic Excellence Program 2020 supported by the National Research, Development and Innovation Office (TKP2020-IKA-05) and the Stipendium Hungaricum Programme. The support of the János Bolyai Research Scholarship of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences and the Bolyai+ New National Excellence Program of the Ministry for Innovation and Technology to D.G. Knapp is highly appreciated. F.E. Guard and colleagues are grateful to the traditional owners, the Jirrbal and Warungu people, as well as L. and P. Hales, Reserve Managers, of the Yourka Bush Heritage Reserve. Their generosity, guidance, and the opportunity to explore the Bush Heritage Reserve on the Einasleigh Uplands in far north Queensland is greatly appreciated. The National Science Foundation (USA) provided funds (DBI#1828479) to the New York Botanical Garden for a scanning electron microscope used for imaging the spores. V. Papp was supported by the ÚNKP-21-5 New National Excellence Program of the Ministry for Innovation and Technology from the National Research, Development and Innovation Fund of Hungary. A.N. Miller thanks the WM Keck Center at the University of Illinois Urbana – Champaign for sequencing Lasiosphaeria deviata. J. Pawłowska acknowledges support form National Science Centre, Poland (grant Opus 13 no 2017/25/B/NZ8/00473). The research of T.S. Bulgakov was carried out as part of the State Research Task of the Subtropical Scientific Centre of the Russian Academy of Sciences (Theme No. 0492-2021- 0007). K. Bensch (Westerdijk Fungal Biodiversity Institute, Utrecht) is thanked for correcting the spelling of various Latin epithets. ; Peer reviewed
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AstraZeneca ; European Union Horizon 2020 research (under grant agreement No 668858 PrECISE to J.S.R.) ; Wellcome Trust (102696 and 206194)
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This paper describes the data acquisition and high level trigger system of the ATLAS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider at CERN, as deployed during Run 1. Data flow as well as control, configuration and monitoring aspects are addressed. An overview of the functionality of the system and of its performance is presented and design choices are discussed. ; Funding: We acknowledge the support of ANPCyT, Argentina; YerPhI, Armenia; ARC, Australia; BMWFW and FWF, Austria; ANAS, Azerbaijan; SSTC, Belarus; CNPq and FAPESP, Brazil; NSERC, NRC and CFI, Canada; CERN; CONICYT, Chile; CAS, MOST and NSFC, China; COLCIENCIAS, Colombia; MSMT CR, MPO CR and VSC CR, Czech Republic; DNRF, DNSRC and Lundbeck Foundation, Denmark; IN2P3-CNRS, CEA-DSM/IRFU, France; GNSF, Georgia; BMBF, HGF, and MPG, Germany; GSRT, Greece; RGC, Hong Kong SAR, China; ISF, I-CORE and Benoziyo Center, Israel; INFN, Italy; MEXT and JSPS, Japan; CNRST, Morocco; FOM and NWO, Netherlands; RCN, Norway; MNiSW and NCN, Poland; FCT, Portugal; MNE/IFA, Romania; MES of Russia and NRC KI, Russian Federation; JINR; MESTD, Serbia; MSSR, Slovakia; ARRS and MIZS, Slovenia; DST/NRF, South Africa; MINECO, Spain; SRC and Wallenberg Foundation, Sweden; SERI, SNSF and Cantons of Bern and Geneva, Switzerland; MOST, Taiwan; TAEK, Turkey; STFC, United Kingdom; DOE and NSF, United States of America. In addition, individual groups and members have received support from BCKDF, the Canada Council, CANARIE, CRC, Compute Canada, FQRNT, and the Ontario Innovation Trust, Canada; EPLANET, ERC, FP7, Horizon 2020 and Marie Sklodowska-Curie Actions, European Union; Investissements d'Avenir Labex and Idex, ANR, Region Auvergne and Fondation Partager le Savoir, France; DFG and AvH Foundation, Germany; Herakleitos, Thales and Aristeia programmes co-financed by EU-ESF and the Greek NSRF; BSF, GIF and Minerva, Israel; BRF, Norway; the Royal Society and Leverhulme Trust, United Kingdom.
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We thank CERN for the very successful operation of the LHC, as well as the support staff from our institutions without whom ATLAS could not be operated efficiently. We acknowledge the support of ANPCyT, Argentina; YerPhI, Armenia; ARC, Australia; BMWF and FWF, Austria; ANAS, Azerbaijan; SSTC, Belarus; CNPq and FAPESP, Brazil; NSERC, NRC and CFI, Canada; CERN; CONICYT, Chile; CAS, MOST and NSFC, China; COLCIENCIAS, Colombia; MSMT CR, MPO CR and VSC CR, Czech Republic; DNRF, DNSRC and Lundbeck Foundation, Denmark; EPLANET, ERC and NSRF, European Union; IN2P3-CNRS, CEA-DSM/IRFU, France; GNSF, Georgia; BMBF, DFG, HGF, MPG and AvH Foundation, Germany; GSRT and NSRF, Greece; ISF, MINERVA, GIF, DIP and Benoziyo Center, Israel; INFN, Italy; MEXT and JSPS, Japan; CNRST, Morocco; FOM and NWO, Netherlands; BRF and RCN, Norway; MNiSW, Poland; GRICES and FCT, Portugal; MERYS (MECTS), Romania; MES of Russia and ROSATOM, Russian Federation; JINR; MSTD, Serbia; MSSR, Slovakia; ARRS and MIZŠ, Slovenia; DST/NRF, South Africa; MICINN, Spain; SRC and Wallenberg Foundation, Sweden; SER, SNSF and Cantons of Bern and Geneva, Switzerland; NSC, Taiwan; TAEK, Turkey; STFC, the Royal Society and Leverhulme Trust, United Kingdom; DOE and NSF, United States of America. The crucial computing support from all WLCG partners is acknowledged gratefully, in particular from CERN and the ATLAS Tier-1 facilities at TRIUMF (Canada), NDGF (Denmark, Norway, Sweden), CC-IN2P3 (France), KIT/GridKA (Germany), INFN-CNAF (Italy), NL-T1 (Netherlands), PIC (Spain), ASGC (Taiwan), RAL (UK) and BNL (USA) and in the Tier-2 facilities worldwide.
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Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted routine hospital services globally. This study estimated the total number of adult elective operations that would be cancelled worldwide during the 12 weeks of peak disruption due to COVID-19. Methods: A global expert response study was conducted to elicit projections for the proportion of elective surgery that would be cancelled or postponed during the 12 weeks of peak disruption. A Bayesian β-regression model was used to estimate 12-week cancellation rates for 190 countries. Elective surgical case-mix data, stratified by specialty and indication (surgery for cancer versus benign disease), were determined. This case mix was applied to country-level surgical volumes. The 12-week cancellation rates were then applied to these figures to calculate the total number of cancelled operations. Results: The best estimate was that 28 404 603 operations would be cancelled or postponed during the peak 12 weeks of disruption due to COVID-19 (2 367 050 operations per week). Most would be operations for benign disease (90·2 per cent, 25 638 922 of 28 404 603). The overall 12-week cancellation rate would be 72·3 per cent. Globally, 81·7 per cent of operations for benign conditions (25 638 922 of 31 378 062), 37·7 per cent of cancer operations (2 324 070 of 6 162 311) and 25·4 per cent of elective caesarean sections (441 611 of 1 735 483) would be cancelled or postponed. If countries increased their normal surgical volume by 20 per cent after the pandemic, it would take a median of 45 weeks to clear the backlog of operations resulting from COVID-19 disruption. Conclusion: A very large number of operations will be cancelled or postponed owing to disruption caused by COVID-19. Governments should mitigate against this major burden on patients by developing recovery plans and implementing strategies to restore surgical activity safely.
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