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Dept. of History, Philosophy, and Political Science. Paper copy at Leddy Library: Theses & Major Papers - Basement, West Bldg. / Call Number: Thesis1976 .R447. Source: Masters Abstracts International, Volume: 40-07, page: . Thesis (M.A.)--University of Windsor (Canada), 1976.

ABSTRACTAggregate data on US earnings, classified by period and by age, are decomposed into age, period and cohort effects, using the Bayesian cohort models, which were developed to overcome the identification problem in cohort analysis. The main findings, obtained by comparing college and high school graduates, are threefold. First, the age effects show a downward trend for the age group of 45–49 onwards for high school graduates but do not show any such trend for college graduates. Second, the period effects show a downward trend for high school graduates but reveal no such trend for college graduates. Third, the cohort effects are negligible for both college and high school graduates.

SummaryBangladesh represents one of the few countries in south Asia where the pace of fertility decline has been unprecedented over the last three decades. Although there has been significant reduction in fertility levels at the national level, regional variations continue to persist, especially in Sylhet and Chittagong where the total fertility rates are well above the country average. Using data from three consecutive Bangladesh Demographic and Health Surveys (BDHSs) this paper assesses how fertility patterns in Sylhet and Chittagong differ from the rest of Bangladesh through a marriage cohort analysis of the parity progression ratios, and examines the factors determining the transition rates to higher parity in these two regions. Three cohorts of women are identified: those married during 1965–1974, 1975–84 and 1985–94. The results show that the probability that a woman from the recent cohort in Sylhet or Chittagong who had a third birth will have a fourth birth is nearly twice that of her counterpart in other regions. Social characteristics such as education, occupation, religion and residence have no effect on fertility in Sylhet and Chittagong. Additional period-specific analyses using the 2007 BDHS data show that women in Sylhet are considerably more likely to have a third or fourth birth sooner than those in other divisions, especially Khulna. The findings call for specific family planning policy interventions in Sylhet and Chittagong ensuring gender equity, promoting female education and delaying entry into marriage and childbearing.

England has very volatile house prices. We use pseudo-panel data spanning multiple house-price cycles over nearly forty years, to assess the extent to which house prices affect access to home ownership by age thirty, and whether differences in ownership rates persist. We find that ownership rates at age thirty have varied substantially, with this variation significantly related to prices. Measurement error problems - attenuation bias and other biases - complicate an analysis of the persistence of these differences in ownership. We use two methods - including one that develops the ideas of Deaton (1985) - to deal with this and find robust evidence that cohorts with low ownership rates at thirty close about 80% of the ownership gap by age forty.

Criminologists and other developmental researchers have long acknowledged the importance of both continuity and change in antisocial and criminal behaviour over the life‐course. To the extent that young offenders having contact with the police will persist with offending into adulthood is an important social issue with significant implications for the ongoing development and implementation of early intervention and prevention programs. Using data from New South Wales, this paper tracks a cohort of 8,797 juvenile offenders over ten years and is among the first of its kind to use multivariate techniques to examine the long‐term outcomes of those who were cautioned, conferenced or convicted in that state. The study finds that just over half of all juvenile offenders were reconvicted in court of a further offence and that reconviction rates were higher for young males and Indigenous offenders than for females or non‐Indigneous offenders. In concluding, this paper draws attention to the need for improved assessment and early intervention efforts that more accurately target those young people most at risk of persisting with offending into adulthood.

Major demographic changes in family life occurred during the post‐World War II period in the United States. An increase in women combining traditional family roles with employment in the work force represents one of the most significant of these changes. The late 1960s and early 1970s, in particular, were heralded as a period of revolution in attitudes toward the roles of women (Ferre, 1974; Mason, Czajka and Arber, 1976; McBroom, 1986; Tallichet and Willits, 1986; Thornton and Freedman, 1979). These studies revealed that attitudes became more favourable toward the working women and toward greater opportunities and rewards for women outside the home. Several studies have documented the association of egalitarian sex‐role attitudes with higher levels of education and increased participation in the work force (Mason et.al., 1976; Smith‐Lovin and Tickamyer, 1978; Thornton and Freedman, 1979).

The question of the impact of the age variable upon att's & behavior can be seen in both generational terms & life-cycle or maturational terms. In the absence of developmental or panel studies, cohort analysis of existing data sets can be used to test these 2 alternative interpretations of age-related phenomena. In this article, a previously published data set (see SA A7797) which claimed to demonstrate the existence of maturational rather than generational effects in the area of pol'al party identification was reanalyzed employing the cohort analysis technique. The outcome of the reanalysis demonstrated that no life-cycle or maturational effect appeared to be dominant, as the original author argued, in which aging brings about a conversion to Republican pol'al party identifications. REPLY, by John Crittenden (Indiana State U, Bloomington), indicates that N. E. Cutler comes to a diff conclusion than Crittenden because he did not correct his data for trend & because he omitted all cohort comparisons not contained within the diagonal lines of Table 1. The importance of correcting for trend is stressed. Re the hypothesis of the aging Republican it is asserted that the hypothesis does not require that party shifts take place with increased age 'no matter what.' Rather, it suggests that aging effects constitute one of many discernible tendencies in a complex process. Cutler employed only 25% of the data submitted by Crittenden. The segment he has chosen is the only one in which trend values move in a consistently Democratic direction. Since Cutler did not go beyond Crittenden's data, at least he might have provided an approximately correct characterization of Crittenden's study. COMMENT, by N. E. Cutler states that while Crittenden's 1962 hypothesis says that aging will precipitate a conversion to the Republican party, his 'adjustments for trend' are measures of the Democratic party identifications. His data however, demonstrate that the aged are becoming more Democratic. Cutler's analysis of the same material calls for rejection of the aging Republican hypothesis. Modified AA.