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We model the effect of competing political campaigns on the opinion of voters who exhibit correlation neglect, i.e., fail to understand that different campaigns might be correlated. We show that political campaigners can manipulate voters' beliefs even when voters understand the informativeness of each campaign separately. The optimal coordination of campaigns involves negative correlation of good news and sometimes full positive correlation of bad news. We show that competition in targeted campaigns has the effect of changing the opinions of different groups in different ways; competition increases polarisation among extreme voters but at the same time increases the variance and the quality of moderates' voting decisions.

Many information structures generate correlated rather than mutually independent signals, the news media being a prime example. This paper shows experimentally that in such contexts many people neglect these correlations in the updating process and treat correlated information as independent. In consequence, people's beliefs are excessively sensitive to well-connected information sources, implying a pattern of "overshooting" beliefs. Additionally, in an experimental asset market, correlation neglect not only drives overoptimism and overpessimism at the individual level, but also affects aggregate outcomes in a systematic manner. In particular, the excessive confidence swings caused by correlated signals give rise to predictable price bubbles and crashes. These findings are reminiscent of popular narratives according to which aggregate booms and busts might be driven by the spread of "stories". Our results also lend direct support to recent models of boundedly rational social learning.

The rise in populism in the Western world, most evident in the results of the 2016 Brexit referendum and the 2016 United States presidential election, has often been connected with the rise of social media. The unique character of social media has allowed extreme and polarised beliefs, two of the most identifiable features of populism, to emerge and spread in society through permitting the creation of echo chambers on a new larger scale, and providing new means for political campaigners and interested third parties to influence voter opinion. The abundance of information on social media might trigger voters to use simple heuristics to aggregate multiple sources of information. In this paper we report on several studies that focus on the implications of one such documented bias: "correlation neglect", the propensity to treat information sources as if they are (conditionally) independent. We discuss the relation between correlation neglect and polarisation in opinions and party platforms. We also discuss how targeted political campaigns in the presence of correlation neglect may bias voters from different groups in different directions. Specifically, competition in targeted social media campaigns increases polarisation among extreme voters but at the same time increases the randomness and unpredictability of moderates' voting behaviour. These findings are consistent with new data on the evolution of US voters' opinions in the last five decades. The data show a significant change in the trajectory of the opinions of moderates versus extreme voters starting from the mid 90s, which is consistent with the rise in the ability of campaigns more effectively to target and bombard voters with information through social media. Publisher's note: This article was edited on 04/04/2022 to include Funding Information that was omitted at the time of publication.

In this dissertation, I contribute to the literature on Behavioral Microeconomic Theory by analyzing the consequences of well-established departures from rationality and their remedies in strategic interactions. More precisely, I investigate credulity, reduced sensitivity to partitioned prices, and correlation neglect in models of democratic elections, imperfect competition, and contracting under hidden action. Moreover, to facilitate the analysis of other departures from rationality and their impact on economic well-being, I define a solution concept for games between players with dual-selves and discuss its relations to existing equilibrium concepts in the literature on Behavioral Economic Theory.

This study examines the relationships among three major subtypes of neglect (physical, psychological, and environmental), a summary measure of neglect, and neglect as defined by Child Protective Services (CPS). The predictive validity of the subtypes of neglect assessed when children were 5 years of age was examined using children's behavior at age 6. Study findings include modest to moderate correlations among the neglect subtypes, CPS neglect, and children's behavior. After controlling for CPS neglect, the subtypes remained predictive of children's behavior. The set of three subtypes was more strongly related to children's behavior, particularly maternal report of internalizing problems, than was the summary neglect measure. These findings suggest that considering the subtypes of neglect may enhance our understanding of neglect and lead to interventions tailored to families' specific needs.

The Eurovision Song Contest (ESC) has been a growing source of entertainment for millions of viewers. Countries are represented by a single song during a live performance and in an award ceremony scores are exchanged according to their preference. It has been speculated that socio-economic ties influence the awards. The work presented here aims at investigating a different explanation for the voting patterns which deviate significantly from a uniform distribution. A perspective which is not covered is whether an audience member sees bias as a route towards increasing a country's score rank. Given that much of the biased voting is apparent to the audience, the question whether these biased connections present themselves as a path to increasing score rank is explored. The results show that countries which attracted more biased preferential edges (preference in degree) and produced bias towards other countries (preference out degree) had a significant rank correlation with their total accumulated score. This adds to the theory explaining the biased voting patterns, in that they assist towards the simple goal of an audience member seeking to win by utilizing exchange partnerships with those countries where socio-economic ties already exist.

The rise in populism in the Western world, most evident in the results of the 2016 Brexit referendum and the 2016 United States presidential election, has often been connected with the rise of social media. The unique character of social media has allowed extreme and polarised beliefs, two of the most identifiable features of populism, to emerge and spread in society through permitting the creation of echo chambers on a new larger scale, and providing new means for political campaigners and interested third parties to influence voter opinion. The abundance of information on social media might trigger voters to use simple heuristics to aggregate multiple sources of information. In this paper we report on several studies that focus on the implications of one such documented bias: "correlation neglect", the propensity to treat information sources as if they are (conditionally) independent. We discuss the relation between correlation neglect and polarisation in opinions and party platforms. We also discuss how targeted political campaigns in the presence of correlation neglect may bias voters from different groups in different directions. Specifically, competition in targeted social media campaigns increases polarisation among extreme voters but at the same time increases the randomness and unpredictability of moderates' voting behaviour. These findings are consistent with new data on the evolution of US voters' opinions in the last five decades. The data show a significant change in the trajectory of the opinions of moderates versus extreme voters starting from the mid 90s, which is consistent with the rise in the ability of campaigns more effectively to target and bombard voters with information through social media.

Two hundred and four German social work practitioners were reviewed to what extent they neglect ethical and normative principles in their daily professional social work practice. The principles have been derived from the International Federation of Social Workers (IFSW), the International Association of Schools of Social Work (IASSW), and the German Professional Association for Social Work (DBSH). Different from expectations, factor analyses led to a classification of these neglects into three areas: the neglect of goals of the profession (e.g., improving social work's public image), of guidelines for dealing with clients (e.g., not favoring one client over another), and regarding general regulations of careful work (e.g., documenting one's daily actions). Item analyses and scale formations for these three domains are described. In addition, correlation analyses with eight validity variables document convergent, discriminant and criterion validity of the elaborated scales. Finally, the meaning of the three dimensions and the consequences for educating ethical principles in social work are discussed. In addition, suggestions are given to improve the assessment instrument in further research.