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This paper examines the cyclical regularities of macroeconomic, financial and property market aggregates in relation to the property stock price cycle in the UK. The Hodrick Prescott filter is employed to fit a long‐term trend to the raw data, and to derive the short‐term cycles of each series. It is found that the cycles of consumer expenditure, total consumption per capita, the dividend yield and the long‐term bond yield are moderately correlated, and mainly coincident, with the property price cycle. There is also evidence that the nominal and real Treasury Bill rates and the interest rate spread lead this cycle by one or two quarters, and therefore that these series can be considered leading indicators of property stock prices. This study recommends that macroeconomic and financial variables can provide useful information to explain and potentially to forecast movements of property‐backed stock returns in the UK.

Most EU member states will adopt fiscal rules that refer to cyclically-adjusted borrowing limits. Under the standard cyclical adjustment procedure, trend increases in public debt based on cyclical components are prevented if the real-time output gaps used to calculate cyclical components balance over time. We analyse real-time output gaps for EU-15 countries over the 1996-2011 period as estimated by the EU, the IMF and the OECD. Compared to each institution's final estimate, we find that real-time output gaps in our sample period are negatively biased. This bias is observed (i) irrespective of the source of the data, (ii) in all real-time vintages, (iii) basically across the entire cross-section of countries. The magnitude of the bias is considerable: on average, real-time cyclical components as a percentage of GDP are biased downwards by about 0.5 percentage point per year. Our results suggest that fiscal rules should incorporate ex-post checks of the unbiasedness of the cyclical components used within the rule. Potential biases would then decrease or increase future borrowing limits.

"This paper presents evidence that most of the unemployment fluctuations of the seventies (unlike those in the sixties) were induced by unusual structural shifts within the U.S. economy. Simple time-series models of layoffs and unemployment are constructed that include a measure of structural shifts within the labor market. These models are estimated and a derived natural rate series is constructe." (author's abstract)

"This paper presents evidence that most of the unemployment fluctuations of the seventies (unlike those in the sixties) were induced by unusual structural shifts within the U.S. economy. Simple time-series models of layoffs and unemployment are constructed that include a measure of structural shifts within the labor market. These models are estimated and a derived natural rate series is constructe." (Author's abstract) ((en))

Wealth is distributed more unevenly than income, and one contributing factor might be that richer households earn higher portfolio returns. I uncover one channel that causes portfolio returns to be increasing in wealth: Poorer households consistently buy risky assets in booms-when expected returns are low-and sell after a bust-when expected returns are high. Although time-varying expected returns are a robust empirical fact, theories are ambiguous on whether poorer or richer households engage in such cyclical trading patterns. I estimate the trading patterns for households across wealth levels, in the US housing market for 1988-2013. I interact housing ownership patterns from deeds records with household-level wealth, which I infer from merging owners' surnames with their name-based income in the 1940 full Census. The estimated dispersion in expected returns from this "buy-high-sell-low" channel is large: The interquartile-range difference is 60 basis points per year. The channel predicts that geographies with historically higher volatility will feature more wealth inequality than income inequality: I verify this implication in the data. These results suggest that a government policy intended to boost poorer households' wealth via homeownership can backfire if it ignores the status of house prices.

By extending the time-tested reward–punishment hypothesis in economic voting, this article argues that rational voters hold incumbents accountable for the macroeconomic policies they pursue rather than purely for the economic climate that prevails under their tenure. Building on this premise, I first put forward a theory where business cycle fluctuations realign relative fiscal preferences among income groups. This theory's implications predict that the aggregate electoral response to fiscal decisions evolves in a counter-cyclical fashion. Using quarterly measures of vote intention shares of incumbent parties in the United Kingdom, I provide time-series evidence from a set of error correction models supporting this proposition: at times of low unemployment, the electorate punishes profligate incumbents; in deteriorating labour market conditions, however, they reward expansionary policies. The immediate electoral impact is non-significant across the models, and most of the estimated effect is spread out across subsequent quarters.

Gender pay gaps persist worldwide despite political emphasis to close them. The literature found various drivers of the gaps but remained vastly silent about the role of cyclical dynamics. Using quarterly US data over the period 1979-2019, we study the effects of cyclical dynamics on the gender pay gap based on a structural vector auto-regression model with zero and sign restrictions. The results suggest that technology shocks lead to lower levels of the gender pay gap in the medium run, while higher wage bargaining power reduces the gap in the short run. However, these reductions of the gap come at the cost of increased unemployment. As a policy implication, these results imply a trade-off between lower gender pay gaps and higher unemployment. ; Trotz politischer Bestrebungen die Geschlechterlohnlücke zu beseitigen, besteht sie weltweit fort. In der Literatur wurden verschiedene Treiber der Lohnlücke gefunden - die Rolle zyklischer Fluktuationen bleibt jedoch weitgehend unerwähnt. Unter Verwendung von vierteljährlichen US-Daten über den Zeitraum 1979-2019 untersuchen wir die Auswirkungen der zyklischen Fluktuationen auf die Geschlechterlohnlücke mithilfe eines strukturellen Vektor-Autoregressivem Modells mit Ausschluss- und Vorzeichenrestriktionen. Die Ergebnisse deuten darauf hin, dass Technologieschocks mittelfristig zu einem niedrigeren Niveau der Geschlechterlohnlücke führen, während eine höhere Lohnverhandlungsmacht die Lücke kurzfristig reduziert. Diese Verringerungen der Lücke gehen jedoch auf Kosten erhöhter Arbeitslosigkeit. Daher zeigen unsere Ergebnisse einen Trade-off zwischen geringeren Geschlechterlohnlücken und höherer Arbeitslosigkeit auf.

For 1970-1982, the wage/profit ratio is strongly counter-cyclical; it's movements are determined mainly by output demanded (or capacity utilization) and only secondarily by unemployment with a long time lag. These data weakened the case for the reserve army theory and strengthen the case for theories of deficient demand (but data for 1950-1970 lean more the other way).