Suchergebnisse

Hindsight bias describes characteristic changes in the perceptions of events or facts once their outcomes are known. This article focuses on one important facet of this, named creeping determinism, denoting enhanced hindsight perceptions of the inevitability of event outcomes. We suggest a systematic link between the literatures on causal attribution and hindsight bias/creeping determinism and introduce a comprehensive causal model theory (CMT) of creeping determinism. We then distinguish between two alternative versions of CMT, which reflect recent debates in the causal attribution literature. These versions assume, respectively, that individuals make causal attributions by means of covariation analysis or via the discovery of some underlying mechanism. In order to contrast these assumptions, we introduce a new hypothesis concerning the magnitude of creeping determinism, based on the conjunction effect in causal attribution, and we present empirical evidence concerning this hypothesis.

Abstract
Aim: A massive flood due to exceptional rainfalls devastated the town of Genoa on 9 October 2014. Media reports focused on the disaster, its causes and the political accountabilities. Reading facts after the event is commonly biased by the hindsight perspective and the aim of the paper is to investigate the amount and the potential effects of hindsight bias in terms of citizens risk perception and community resilience.
Method: We performed a qualitative analysis of the narratives in the national and local news reports during the aftermath to investigate occurrences of a blaming attitude and cognitive biases.
Results: The results showed a considerable amount of sentences that were focused on blaming the forecasters, the Civil Protection System, and the local administration. Many narratives were affected by hindsight bias and described the events as simple and linear chain reactions. This led to counterfactual biases, assuming that a simple intervention on a single factor could have prevented the tragic outcome.
Conclusion: We claim that the biased nature of the media narratives could affect the citizens' risk perception and their attitude towards the institutions, increasing their exposure to future flood-related threats. We propose the appropriate language would generate correct cognitive frames and, therefore, safer behaviour.

This paper presents an interview with decision scientist Baruch Fischhoff, who pioneered research on the hindsight bias; the tendency to view an event as more predictable, inevitable or likely once it has taken place. Fischhoff traces his early research on hindsight biases, conducted in Israel in the early 1970s at the beginning of Kahneman and Tversky's influential research program in judgment and decision making. We revisit his less-known writings about social psychologists' attributions about the decision making of leaders regarding pivotal military decisions and Fischhoff's own engagement in security and risk analysis after September 11th. Fischhoff distinguishes two views of past events, a historian's sense of the past as a series of distinct events and the behavioral scientist's view of events as falling into 'equivalence classes,' allowing for meaningful predictions that outcomes of past events would replicate. We discuss the contribution of decision science to the problematic and contemporary controversies surrounding replicability in experimental social psychology. ; info:eu-repo/semantics/published

The study aimed to examine the impact of bias on staff performance at environmental protection directorates of the northern region, the study depended on descriptive analytical method, the questionnaire represented as a study tool, which distributed on population which consist (44) employees, So after had analyzed the data, the study found: no effecting of Confirmation Bias on staff performance at Environmental Protection Directorates of the Northern Region, while there are effecting of Hindsight Bias and Stable Model on staff performance. Finally the study recommended enhancing staff performance trough staff motivation process and shortage staff behavioral bias, also the study recommended avoiding the customers classified on politician and geographic loyalty.