Background: The lumpy skin disease virus (LSDV) is a dsDNA virus belonging to the Poxviridae family and the Capripoxvirus genus. Lumpy skin diseases (LSD) is a highly contagious transboundary disease in cattle producing major economic losses. In 2014, the disease was first reported in the European Union (in Cyprus); it was then reported in 2015 (in Greece) and has spread through different Balkan countries in 2016. Indirect vector transmission is predominant at small distances, but transmission between distant herds and between countries usually occurs through movements of infected cattle or through vectors found mainly in animal trucks. Methods and principal findings: In order to estimate the threat for France due to the introduction of vectors found in animal trucks (cattle or horses) from at-risk countries (Balkans and neighbours), a quantitative import risk analysis (QIRA) model was developed according to the international standard. Using stochastic QIRA modelling and combining experimental/field data and expert opinion, the yearly risk of LSDV being introduced by stable flies (Stomoxys calcitrans), that travel in trucks transporting animals was between 6 x 10−5 and 5.93 x 10−3 with a median value of 89.9 x 10−5; it was mainly due to the risk related to insects entering farms in France from vehicles transporting cattle from the at-risk area. The risk related to the transport of cattle going to slaughterhouses or the transport of horses was much lower (between 2 x 10−7 and 3.73 x 10−5 and between 5 x 10−10 and 3.95 x 10−8 for cattle and horses, respectively). The disinsectisation of trucks transporting live animals was important to reduce this risk. Conclusion and significance: The development of a stochastic QIRA made it possible to quantify the risk of LSD being introduced in France through the import of vectors that travel in trucks transporting animals. This tool is of prime importance because the LSD situation in the Balkans is continuously changing. Indeed, this model can be updated to process new information on vectors and the changing health situation, in addition to new data from the TRAde Control and Expert System (TRACES, EU database). This model is easy to adapt to different countries and to other vectors and diseases.
Prioritization of companion animal transmissible diseases was performed by the Companion Animals multisectoriaL interprofessionaL Interdisciplinary Strategic Think tank On zoonoses (CALLISTO) project. The project considered diseases occurring in domesticated species commonly kept as pets, such as dogs and cats, but also included diseases occurring in captive wild animals and production animal species. The prioritization process led to the selection of 15 diseases of prime public health relevance, agricultural economic importance, or both. An analysis was made of the current knowledge on the risk of occurrence and transmission of these diseases among companion animals, and from companion animals to man (zoonoses) or to livestock. The literature was scanned for risk assessments for these diseases. Studies were classified as import risk assessments (IRAs) or risk factor analyses (RFAs) in endemic areas. For those pathogens that are absent from Europe, only IRAs were considered; for pathogens present throughout Europe, only RFAs were considered. IRAs were identified for seven of the eight diseases totally or partially absent from Europe. IRAs for classical rabies and alveolar echinococcosis found an increased risk for introduction of the pathogen into officially disease-free areas as a consequence of abandoning national rules and adopting the harmonized EU rules for pet travel. IRAs for leishmaniosis focused on risk associated with the presence of persistently infected dogs in new geographical areas, taking into consideration the risk of disease establishment should a competent vector arise. IRAs for CrimeaneCongo haemorrhagic fever and West Nile fever indicated that the likelihood of introduction via companion animals was low. IRAs for bluetongue paid no attention to the risk of introduction via companion animals, which was also the case for IRAs for foot-and-mouth disease, the only disease considered to be absent from Europe. RFAs dealing with the risk factors for companion animals to become infected were identified for eight of the 14 diseases found in Europe or parts of it. RFAs for leptospirosis were most numerous (four studies). The host related risk factor 'age' was identified as significant for dogs in at least two RFAs for cystic echinococcosis and giardiasis. Among husbandry and healthcare related factors, 'eating (uncooked) offal', 'being free roaming' and 'poor deworming practice' were associated with risk for dogs in at least two RFAs for cystic echinococcosis, while 'having received recent veterinary treatment' was identified as a risk factor in at least two studies on infection with extended spectrum beta lactamase-producing bacteria, one in horses and the other in dogs and cats. Finally, although the environmental factors 'season' and 'hydrological density' were identified as significant risk factors for dogs in at least two RFAs for leptospirosis, the inconsistent case definitions used in those studies made comparison of study results problematic. RFAs considering the risk of people becoming infected from companion animals were identified for eight of the 14 diseases found in Europe or parts of it. RFAs for human campylobacteriosis were the most numerous (n ¼ 6). Most studies made an assessment as to whether keeping a pet per se, or keeping a pet with supposed or known risk factors, was a risk factor for people relative to other risks. This allowed some studies to report the population attributable risk or population attributable fraction of the incidence of human disease due to companion animals (for campylobacteriosis, salmonellosis and toxoplasmosis), which is a measure that is easy to perceive for laymen and policy makers. No RFAs were found that dealt with the risk to food animals from companion animals for any of the 15 pathogens investigated. Few risk method-based studies were identified that provided information on risk factors for companion animals and on their role as a source of these 15 selected diseases, indicating a clear knowledge gap. There were not enough assessments for any of the 15 diseases to allow meta-analyses, whether these assessments dealt with companion animal disease risk or companion animal-associated human disease risk. Important method and technology gaps were the lack of harmonization in the case definitions used for a given disease and the lack of good diagnostics allowing pathogen identification to taxonomic levels that are meaningful for risk analysis. Molecular epidemiology studies on zoonotic pathogens, which included companion animals among the potential human risk factors, were not found, although such studies would provide good preliminary insights without requiring any tracing of people or any interviews. In addition to performing further risk studies that take into account these issues, there is a need for responsible pet ownership and continued education of professionals in companion animal zoonoses. Additional risk assessment studies should allow more targeted actions to reduce the risk of zoonotic diseases transferred via companion animals and provide information that will promote risk awareness in healthy humane animal relationships.
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A major factor that puts the new restrictions under scrutiny and raises suspicions over attempts to stifle competition is the history of monopoly in Uzbekistan's automobile industry.
AbstractThe United States imports more than 1 billion live plants annually—an important and growing pathway for introduction of damaging nonnative invertebrates and pathogens. Inspection of imports is one safeguard for reducing pest introductions, but capacity constraints limit inspection effort. We develop an optimal sampling strategy to minimize the costs of pest introductions from trade by posing inspection as an acceptance sampling problem that incorporates key features of the decision context, including (i) simultaneous inspection of many heterogeneous lots, (ii) a lot‐specific sampling effort, (iii) a budget constraint that limits total inspection effort, (iv) inspection error, and (v) an objective of minimizing cost from accepted defective units. We derive a formula for expected number of accepted infested units (expected slippage) given lot size, sample size, infestation rate, and detection rate, and we formulate and analyze the inspector's optimization problem of allocating a sampling budget among incoming lots to minimize the cost of slippage. We conduct an empirical analysis of live plant inspection, including estimation of plant infestation rates from historical data, and find that inspections optimally target the largest lots with the highest plant infestation rates, leaving some lots unsampled. We also consider that USDA‐APHIS, which administers inspections, may want to continue inspecting all lots at a baseline level; we find that allocating any additional capacity, beyond a comprehensive baseline inspection, to the largest lots with the highest infestation rates allows inspectors to meet the dual goals of minimizing the costs of slippage and maintaining baseline sampling without substantial compromise.
Financial risks related to crude oil imports are certainly affected by crude oil price uncertainty. Our question is: How important is it to take also physical risks, such as the crude oil exporters' political risks and transportation risks into account when controlling financial risks in line with the importer's risk attitude when planning crude oil imports and transportation at a tactical level? In this paper, two-stage stochastic programming models are proposed to illustrate the problem, and a numerical test is conducted to better understand the effects of physical risks. The mechanism for controlling risk will be forward physical contracts. The results show that the real financial risk is much higher than the importer might believe if physical risks are not considered. Unless the importer is risk neutral, more forward crude oil will be imported when physical risks are considered, and the distribution of forward crude oil will depend strongly on correlations among risks. ; publishedVersion
Partial contents: Reagan's global Keynesianism; Worldwide capital mobility; Constraints on borrowing; Effects of tax reform; Reviving U.S. manufacturing; The role of exchange rates.
Although a prevalent technology of conflict, the impact of small arms imports on the risk of intrastate conflict outbreak has not been examined so far. This article argues that small arms not only enhance general military capabilities, but also contribute to state capacities necessary for conflict prevention. These two mechanisms are incorporated in a formal model of power shifts. The derived hypotheses are tested on 146 countries for the period 1993–2014. Using split-population and penalized fixed-effects logit models as innovative estimation methods for rare-events data, small arms imports are found to have no or even a risk-reducing impact.
AbstractAn important aspect of analyzing the risk of unwanted organisms establishing in an area is understanding the pathways by which they arrive. Evaluating the risks of these pathways requires use of data from multiple sources, which frequently are uncertain. To address the needs of agencies responsible for biosecurity operations, we present an Integrated Biosecurity Risk Assessment Model (IBRAM) for evaluating the risk of establishment and dispersal of invasive species along trade pathways. The IBRAM framework consists of multiple linked models which describe pest entry into the country, escape along trade pathways, initial dispersal into the environment, habitat suitability, probabilities of establishment and spread, and the consequences of these invasions. Bayesian networks (BN) are used extensively to model these processes. The model includes dynamic BN components and geographic data, resulting in distributions of output parameters over spatial and temporal axes. IBRAM is supported by a web‐based tool that allows users to run the model on real‐world pest examples and investigate the impact of alternative risk management scenarios, to explore the effect of various interventions and resource allocations. Two case studies are provided as examples of how IBRAM may be used: Queensland fruit fly (Bactrocera tryoni) (Diptera: Tephritidae) and brown marmorated stink bug (Halyomorpha halys) (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) are unwanted organisms with the potential to invade Aotearoa New Zealand, and IBRAM has been influential in evaluating the efficacy of pathway management to mitigate the risk of their establishment in the country.
