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Growing public debt is one of the biggest challenges faced by both developing and developed economies. Available research indicates the negative impact of public debt growth on economic growth. Applying the ordinary least squares method to the panel data for the countries of the Western Balkans and the period from 1998 to 2019, we found that one percentage growth in public debt leads to a decrease in the GDP growth rate by 0.036 percentage points. In addition, an increase in public debt by one percentage point leads to a decrease in the productivity growth rate by 0.079 percentage points. The results of the research for Montenegro as a case (two scenarios of fiscal policy and the period 2021-2040), showed that, if expenditures remain intact, due to the small difference between the forecasted average GDP growth rate in the period 2021-2040 and interest rates (assumed constant), such a scenario will lead to a slower change in the public debt-to-GDP ratio (23% decrease in two decades). In addition, the cost of interest on public debt in this scenario over the entire period is higher than 2% of GDP. If the fiscal policy is changed toward a reduction in government spending, the short-term GDP growth rate would be slightly reduced, but both the expenditures for interest (less than 2% of GDP) and public debt (decrease of 63% in two-decades) would be reduced significantly. Although reduced government spending will have a negative impact on GDP growth in the short run, the country will benefit in the long run as reduced public debt will have a positive impact on GDP and productivity growth.

This study proposes a synthetic visual indicator with which to perform debt sustainability analysis using dynamic general equilibrium models. In a single diagram, we summarized the general equilibrium relationships among economic activity, government budget, and the maximum amount of sustainable public debt. Then, we measured sustainability using the distance of actual debt from the model-consistent maximum debt. This indicator can be implemented with any DSGE model; as a backing theory, we used a neoclassical model augmented with endogenous tax revenues, disaggregated public spending, different production technologies for public and private goods, non-atomistic wage setters in public labor (unions), and a fully specified maturity curve for public bonds. We provided an example of its usage using the case of Greece during the last public debt crisis. To perform the numerical analysis, we developed original software, whose advantage is allowing an audience without expertise in DSGE models to perform general equilibrium debt sustainability analyses without requiring an understanding of the technicalities of DSGE models.

We study the effects on economic activity of a pure temporary change in government debt and the relationship between the debt multiplier and the level of debt in an overlapping generations framework. The debt multiplier is positive but quite small during normal times while it is much larger during crises. Moreover, it increases with the steady state level of debt. Hence, the call for fiscal consolidation during recessions seems ill-advised. Finally, a rise in the steady state debt-to-GDP level increases the steady state real interest rate providing more room for manoeuvre to monetary policy to fight deflationary shocks.

The recent global financial crisis has led to an unprecedented increase in public debt across the world, raising serious concerns about its economic impact. This paper examines the impact of high public debt on long‐run economic growth in a large panel of countries over the last four decades. High initial public debt is found to be significantly associated with slower subsequent growth. Non‐linearities, currency denomination of debt and differences between advanced and emerging market economies are explored. The adverse effect largely reflects a slowdown in labour productivity growth mainly due to slower capital accumulation. Extensive robustness checks confirm the results.

Debt management includes decisions about the composition and terms, but not about the amount, of the public debt. The heart of the countercyclical debt management theory is that short-term obligations provide liquidity and in duce spending while long-term obligations do the reverse. The effects of such management are indirect, uncertain, and weak and may be redundant if monetary policy is adequate. Debt management is less flexible than monetary policy, and its effects may persist after a change of policy is required and thus become an obstacle to the effectiveness of monetary policy. In a reces sion, short-term financing tends to raise short-term interest rates and may delay a resumption of spending by offering at tractive returns on funds. In recent years the average maturity of the debt has been declining, thus increasing the possibilities of inflation. The only two recent occasions on which the debt was lengthened moderately were in periods of recession; appar ently the lengthening did not delay recovery. The potentiali ties of countercyclical debt management have been overempha sized in recent years, especially if an effective monetary policy is assumed. At least one competent student of the problem advocates substituting cost for economic stabilization as the proper criterion for debt management.

"Public debts have exploded to levels unprecedented in recent history as governments responded to the Covid-19 pandemic. Their rise prompted apocalyptic warnings about the dangers of heavy debts - about the drag they will place on economic growth and for future generations. This book adds the other side of the equation: drawing on history, it provides a defence of public debt. It shows that the ability of governments to borrow has played a critical role in meeting emergencies, from wars and pandemics to economic and financial crises, as well as in funding essential public goods and services such as transportation, education and healthcare. In these ways, the capacity to issue debt has been integral to state building. Transactions in public debt securities have also contributed to the development of private financial markets and, through this channel, to modern economic growth. None of this is to deny that debt problems, debt crises and debt defaults occur. But these dramatic events, which attract much attention, are not the entire story. In Defence of Public Debt redresses the balance. It develops its arguments historically, recounting two millennia of public debt experience. It deploys a comprehensive database to identify the factors behind rising public debts and the circumstances under which high debts are successfully brought down. Finally, it brings the story up to date, describing the role of public debt in managing the Covid-19 pandemic and suggesting a way forward once governments, now more heavily indebted than before, finally emerge from the crisis"--

A dive into the origins, management, and uses and misuses of sovereign debt through the ages. Public debts have exploded to levels unprecedented in modern history as governments responded to the Covid-19 pandemic and ensuing economic crisis. Their dramatic rise has prompted apocalyptic warnings about the dangers of heavy debts—about the drag they will place on economic growth and the burden they represent for future generations. In Defense of Public Debt offers a sharp rejoinder to this view, marshaling the entire history of state-issued public debt to demonstrate its usefulness. Authors Barry Eichengreen, Asmaa El-Ganainy, Rui Esteves, and Kris James Mitchener argue that the ability of governments to issue debt has played a critical role in addressing emergencies—from wars and pandemics to economic and financial crises, as well as in funding essential public goods and services such as transportation, education, and healthcare. In these ways, the capacity to issue debt has been integral to state building and state survival. Transactions in public debt securities have also contributed to the development of private financial markets and, through this channel, to modern economic growth. None of this is to deny that debt problems, debt crises, and debt defaults occur. But these dramatic events, which attract much attention, are not the entire story. In Defense of Public Debt redresses the balance. The authors develop their arguments historically, recounting two millennia of public debt experience. They deploy a comprehensive database to identify the factors behind rising public debts and the circumstances under which high debts are successfully stabilized and brought down. Finally, they bring the story up to date, describing the role of public debt in managing the Covid-19 pandemic and recession, suggesting a way forward once governments—now more heavily indebted than before—finally emerge from the crisis. ; https://scholarcommons.scu.edu/faculty_books/1537/thumbnail.jpg

Abstract
This paper explores the causality between public debt, public debt service and economic growth in South Africa covering the period 1970 – 2017. The study employs the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration and the multivariate Granger-causality test. The empirical results indicate that there is unidirectional causality from economic growth to public debt, but only in the short run. However, the study fails to establish any causality between public debt service and economic growth, both in the short run and long run. In line with the empirical evidence, the study concludes that it is economic growth that drives public debt in South Africa, and that the causal relationship between public debt and economic growth is sensitive to the timeframe considered. The paper recommends policymakers in South Africa to consider growth-enhancing policies in the short run, since poor economic performances may lead to high public debt levels.

Public debt is one of the crucial forms of public revenue necessary to achieve some stabilization goals of fiscal policy, such as stable inflation, full employment, trade balance, economic growth, economic development, and primary securing finances for states public expenditures. It is defined as an extraordinary source for financing public expenditures, but above all it is considered for effective instrument of fiscal policy in accomplishing economic growth and development. Public debt is considered as accumulation of various forms of loans, which are normally realized by the state for the implementation of economic and fiscal policy. Continuity in emission of public debt is immanent in the determination of achieving high levels of investments in various areas of public sector, such as health care, infrastructure, education, etc. With the economic growth and higher demands for various public goods, the state is faced with the problem of securing additional sources of finance that would satisfy the peoples needs and boost the economy additionally. However, if the state decides to reduce the levels of public debt, then the government would discontinue the emissions of public debt and use the budget surplus to pay out the bond holders. Also, very important thing is the source of public debt, internal or external, which could leave the country without the needed capital to secure economic development. Therefore, the productive usage of the borrowed money is essential to have justification for continuing with policy of deficit finance. Contrary of that, the unproductive use of public debt would be risky and bring the state closer to over borrowing and finally bankruptcy.