Suchergebnisse

Abstract. Recent flooding events, like Katrina (USA, 2005) or Xynthia (France, 2010), illustrate the complexity of coastal systems and the limits of traditional flood risk analysis. Among other questions, these events raised issues such as: "how to choose flooding scenarios for risk management purposes?", "how to make a society more aware and prepared for such events?" and "which level of risk is acceptable to a population?". The present paper aims at developing an inverse approach that could seek to address these three issues. The main idea of the proposed method is the inversion of the usual risk assessment steps: starting from the maximum acceptable hazard level (defined by stakeholders as the one leading to the maximum tolerable consequences) to finally obtain the return period of this threshold. Such an "inverse" approach would allow for the identification of all the offshore forcing conditions (and their occurrence probability) inducing a threat for critical assets of the territory, such information being of great importance for coastal risk management. This paper presents the first stage in developing such a procedure. It focuses on estimation (through inversion of the flooding model) of the offshore conditions leading to the acceptable hazard level, estimation of the return period of the associated combinations, and thus of the maximum acceptable hazard level. A first application for a simplified case study (based on real data), located on the French Mediterranean coast, is presented, assuming a maximum acceptable hazard level. Even if only one part of the full inverse method has been developed, we demonstrate how the inverse method can be useful in (1) estimating the probability of exceeding the maximum inundation height for identified critical assets, (2) providing critical offshore conditions for flooding in early warning systems, and (3) raising awareness of stakeholders and eventually enhance preparedness for future flooding events by allowing them to assess risk to their territory. The next challenge is to develop a framework to properly identify the acceptable hazard level, as an input to the present inverse approach.

The intent of geologic carbon dioxide (CO2) sequestration, also known as "geologic carbon sequestration," is to prevent anthropogenic CO2 from entering the atmosphere, thereby maintaining acceptable levels of atmospheric CO2. Ideally, the CO2 will be safely transported to sequestration sites and injected deep underground, where it will be permanently trapped, with no negative impact on the terrestrial environment or on underground resources such as groundwater or fossil fuel deposits. In practice, carbon sequestration will be neither perfectly effective nor risk-free. There are risks associated with geologic carbon sequestration, and evaluation of these risks will be important for making decisions concerning where and how sequestration should be performed. The goal of a risk assessment is to quantify the likelihood of harm (or loss) and to present the results in a format that assists decision makers who must act to tolerate, mitigate, or eliminate the potential harm. The goal of risk management is to establish the practical significance of the assessed risks, compare the costs of reducing these risk to benefits gained, compare the risks to the societal benefits derived from incurring the risk, and to establish political and institutional processes of reducing risks. This section summarizes the risk assessment approaches and risk management methods that can be applied to study geologic carbon sequestration in California, including CO2 capture, transportation and storage operations. It includes consideration of human exposure limits, pathways for human and environmental exposure during operations and post-operations, and how risks change over the time scales associated with storage as the CO2 migrates and reacts in the subsurface environment.

The current state of risk management in Ukraine is considered in the article. The main factors of economic risk for Ukrainian enterprises are identified, such as the unstable political and economic situation in the state, high inflation, unsustainable tax legislation, etc. The needs of the Ukrainian risk management system are identified, as well as specific features of domestic risk management, which include the lack of own infrastructure of risk management and standards of its implementation, significant differences in the Ukrainian and foreign risk profiles for the enterprise, inefficient state risk management, high level of political risk, etc. The need for further research and development of risk management in Ukraine is proved. The procedure for selection of risk management measures in industrial enterprises is suggested, taking into account the world experience in risk management, in particular the FERMA risk management standards, as well as the peculiarities of the existing approach in Ukraine. The proposals for application of risk management measures are made to mitigate the negative impact of environmental factors on the activities of the enterprise and, as a result, improve the results of the economic activities of the enterprise. ; Рассмотрено современное состояние управления рисками в Украине. Выделены основные факторы хозяйственного риска для украинских предприятий. Выявлены потребности украинской системы управления рисками, а также специфические особенности отечественного риск-менеджмента, обоснована необходимость его дальнейшего исследования и развития. Предложено процедуру выбора мероприятий по управлению рисками на промышленных предприятиях.

Innovation development and implementation is one of the most important condition of business management modernization. On the other hand it is quite risky and success is not always guaranteed. Unsupported innovative project can bring significant financial losses. Otherwise if the inovative project is supported and the risks are strictly evalueted it can help to prevent potentioal losses and get high return on investment. There is a need to pay attention to risk assesment methods of inovation projects – growing and changing global financial market and economy which is changing constantly. Purpose – assess the financial risk management methods for implementation of innovation. Objectives: 1. Perform problem analysis of financial risk management for innovation. 2. Perform theoretical analysis of financial risk management methods for innovation. 3. Submit the model of investment project evaluation. 4. Perform applicability research of financial risk management methods for innovation. The object – financial risk management methods for innovation. The study of financial investment risk management model implementation revealed that the main quality of this particular project includes stages of investment implementation, execution and future forecasts. The recommended method is versatile, based on mathematical calculations and a wide range of insights according to economical, political and social situation. Also the implementation of this model is very easy, because any special programs and calculations are not necessary.

Innovation development and implementation is one of the most important condition of business management modernization. On the other hand it is quite risky and success is not always guaranteed. Unsupported innovative project can bring significant financial losses. Otherwise if the inovative project is supported and the risks are strictly evalueted it can help to prevent potentioal losses and get high return on investment. There is a need to pay attention to risk assesment methods of inovation projects – growing and changing global financial market and economy which is changing constantly. Purpose – assess the financial risk management methods for implementation of innovation. Objectives: 1. Perform problem analysis of financial risk management for innovation. 2. Perform theoretical analysis of financial risk management methods for innovation. 3. Submit the model of investment project evaluation. 4. Perform applicability research of financial risk management methods for innovation. The object – financial risk management methods for innovation. The study of financial investment risk management model implementation revealed that the main quality of this particular project includes stages of investment implementation, execution and future forecasts. The recommended method is versatile, based on mathematical calculations and a wide range of insights according to economical, political and social situation. Also the implementation of this model is very easy, because any special programs and calculations are not necessary.

Innovation development and implementation is one of the most important condition of business management modernization. On the other hand it is quite risky and success is not always guaranteed. Unsupported innovative project can bring significant financial losses. Otherwise if the inovative project is supported and the risks are strictly evalueted it can help to prevent potentioal losses and get high return on investment. There is a need to pay attention to risk assesment methods of inovation projects – growing and changing global financial market and economy which is changing constantly. Purpose – assess the financial risk management methods for implementation of innovation. Objectives: 1. Perform problem analysis of financial risk management for innovation. 2. Perform theoretical analysis of financial risk management methods for innovation. 3. Submit the model of investment project evaluation. 4. Perform applicability research of financial risk management methods for innovation. The object – financial risk management methods for innovation. The study of financial investment risk management model implementation revealed that the main quality of this particular project includes stages of investment implementation, execution and future forecasts. The recommended method is versatile, based on mathematical calculations and a wide range of insights according to economical, political and social situation. Also the implementation of this model is very easy, because any special programs and calculations are not necessary.

Innovation development and implementation is one of the most important condition of business management modernization. On the other hand it is quite risky and success is not always guaranteed. Unsupported innovative project can bring significant financial losses. Otherwise if the inovative project is supported and the risks are strictly evalueted it can help to prevent potentioal losses and get high return on investment. There is a need to pay attention to risk assesment methods of inovation projects – growing and changing global financial market and economy which is changing constantly. Purpose – assess the financial risk management methods for implementation of innovation. Objectives: 1. Perform problem analysis of financial risk management for innovation. 2. Perform theoretical analysis of financial risk management methods for innovation. 3. Submit the model of investment project evaluation. 4. Perform applicability research of financial risk management methods for innovation. The object – financial risk management methods for innovation. The study of financial investment risk management model implementation revealed that the main quality of this particular project includes stages of investment implementation, execution and future forecasts. The recommended method is versatile, based on mathematical calculations and a wide range of insights according to economical, political and social situation. Also the implementation of this model is very easy, because any special programs and calculations are not necessary.

This paper provides an overview of decision analysis and its use in risk management decision making. The paper discusses the distinctive characteristics of decision analysis and compares these characteristics with those of its principal alternative—cost–benefit analysis. The paper also discusses each of the steps in a decision analysis and the strengths and limitations of the method.

Die Arbeit gibt einen Überblick über den Entwicklungsstand von Solvency II und vergleicht Europäische Standard-Modelle. Besonderes Augenmerk wird hierbei auf das risikobasierte Deutsche Standard-Modell von GDV und BaFin gelegt. Für die Solvency II Diskussion spielen Abhängigkeiten zwischen Risiken eine wesentliche Rolle, da ihre Vernachlässigung in einem Versicherungsportfolio zu einer erheblichen Fehleinschätzung des Solvenzkapitals führen kann. Dies ist besonders kritisch bei der Betrachtung von Naturkatastrophen, wo Abhängigkeiten aufgrund enger räumlicher Distanz oder gemeinsamer klimatischer Ursachen auftreten können. Auch bei der Betrachtung der beiden Risikomaße Value at Risk und Expected Shortfall wird deutlich, welchen starken Einfluss die zugrunde liegende Abhängigkeitsstruktur hat. Daher werden in dieser Arbeit bekannte Abhängigkeitsstrukturen wie Copulas, lineare Korrelation, Rangkorrelation und Abhängigkeiten im Verteilungsende explizit betrachtet. Außerdem wird für die verwendete Copula als neues Verfahren ein Approximationsverfahren mittels diskreter Gittercopulas vorgestellt, für welche die Verteilung der Summe für beliebig viele Risiken explizit berechnet werden kann.