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A bargaining framework and a measure of conflict polarization are developed from two elements: (i) hatred-based negative externalities experienced by the parties to the conflict, and (ii) penalties the parties impose on their delegated negotiators when concessions are made in the bargaining process. The framework establishes agreement and disagreement regions and it is shown that a necessary condition for a negotiated solution is the adoption of a dual policy that combines dissociative political and military strategies. This analytical approach is applied first to polarized conflicts generally and then to the specific case of the internal conflict in Colombia between that country's government and the FARC guerrilla group. The model provides a rationale for the complex dynamic of Colombia's current peace process, which has involved a preliminary agreement and its subsequent rejection in a national referendum. Our analysis highlights the successful dissociative political-military strategy followed by the negotiators that enabled them to reach the agreement and the negotiators' underestimation of the hatred levels that led the majority of the Colombian society represented in the referendum to vote the agreement down because they considered the concessions made by the government too generous to be acceptable.

Articulé autour du témoignage du cheikh syrien Sa'id Ramadan al-Bouti, cette contribution analyse les procédures mises en œuvre par ce dernier pour penser le conflit entre le régime syrien et son opposition islamiste, dans une rupture avec le caractère immédiat de la violence, d'une part, puis sa résolution, d'autre part. Deux directions retiennent notre attention: la première, qui emprunte à l'espace symbolique, concerne, via une identification au référent religieux, la reconnaissance réciproque d'un héritage commun; reposant sur la portée performative qu'organisent, en amont, les concepts d'allégeance et d'intercession et que répercutent, en aval, les démarches personnelles et le conseil au Prince; la seconde traite des procédures attachées à une médiation discursive. Il s'agit de faire émerger, depuis ces apports croisés, un univers de sens autre, qui n'est pas sans influer sur les négociations politiques proprement dites. (Maghreb-Machrek/GIGA)