Neuere Geschichten des Völkerrechts zeichnen sich dadurch aus, dass sie das Recht und dessen Wirksamkeit nicht losgelöst von sozialen und historischen Kontexten betrachten. In seinem beeindruckenden Buch "Frieden durch Recht?" über den Friedensschluss nach dem ersten Weltkrieg zeigt Marcus M. Payk (vgl. die Rezension in diesem Band), dass das Recht zwar über eine eigene Form und Logik verfügt, dessen Bindungswirkung aber nicht ohne dessen Kontexte verstanden werden kann. .
In this study, we consider the mathematical framework for inductive or plausible reasoning, or in other words, mathematically rigorous reasoning with uncertainty [1-3], which extends the well-known framework for logical or deductive reasoning (often simply called logic), based on certainty. This framework makes use of the Bayesian interpretation of probabilities as plausibilities, or mathematical parameters assigned a value from 0 to 1, based on what is known. Importantly, these need not correspond to measurable frequencies, for example from the collection of an infinite number of samples from a fixed population. Probabilities identified as plausibilities have been shown to satisfy the same mathematical rules as probabilities defined as measurable frequencies, based on the product and sum rules of probability theory [1-3]. However, they are of much broader application. In particular, Bayes' rule [4-5] enables a user to calculate the "probability of an hypothesis, given the data", or in other words the degree of belief or disbelief in the hypothesis, given what is known. Since its mathematical foundation is formulated to be universal in application, without exception, this provides a common platform for hypothesis testing, model comparison, parameter estimation or any other form of inference, and can be used in subsequent decision frameworks such as utility/loss analysis or risk assessment. In consequence, no construct other than that of probability is necessary for the analysis of uncertainty. We then examine the "Rumsfeld trifecta" of known knowns, known unknowns and unknown unknowns from the Bayesian perspective. By symmetry, it is shown that all such influences must be handled identically mathematically, regardless of whether they are known or unknown, or even if their existence is known. In consequence, if any unknown unknowns have an influence on the hypothesis or model space of a given problem, their influence can be calculated mathematically from their corresponding influence on the d ata. Using this insight, we derive a form of Bayes' rule which directly gives the probability of the unknown unknowns, based on the data. This enables a user to identify the existence of unknown unknowns directly from the data. We then examine an extended set of influences composed of the Rumsfield trifecta and also the unknown knowns, i.e., those influences which are known but are accidentally or deliberately ignored. For many prob-lems, including military problems, these can arguably be of greater importance than the unknown unknowns. We show that the above mathematical insights also apply within this enlarged four-fold classification.
En el periodo del 2003 al 2017 fueron electos gobiernos progresistas con una agenda posneoliberal. Fatiga de reformas, exceso de ideología de mercado, poco respeto por las instituciones democráticas de parte de los gobiernos neoliberales, baja de los salarios, precarización laboral, incremento del empleo informal, desmantelamiento de los sindicatos, y desenfado ideológico en los medios de comunicación oficiales saturaron a la ciudadanía. A mediados de la segunda década del siglo XXI, apenas una década después de haber llegado al Gobierno los partidos progresistas, estos comenzaron a perder la popularidad y las elecciones. Lo que se va a revisar en el presente texto es por qué ocurrió eso de manera casi simultánea, revisando variables económicas y políticas. En este texto haremos una revisión de algunas variables de los principales problemas económicos enfrentados, e igualmente se procederá a revisar los problemas políticos y sus variables para terminar con una conclusión sobre los problemas que plantean los gobiernos que intentaron aproximarse a políticas progresistas o al socialismo del siglo XXI. ; In the period from 2003 to 2017 progressive governments were elected with a post-neoliberal agenda. Fatigue of reforms, excess of market ideology, little respect for democratic institutions by neoliberal governments, low wages, job insecurity, increase of informal employment, dismantling of unions, and ideological self-assurance in the official media saturated the citizenship. In the middle of the second decade of the 21st century, barely a decade after the progressive parties where elected to government, they began to lose popularity and elections. What is going to be reviewed in the present text is why this happened almost simultaneously, reviewing economic and political variables. In this text we will review some variables of the main economic problems faced and also proceed to review the political problems and their variables. The end is a conclusion about the problems posed by governments that tried to approach progressive policies or the socialism of the XXI century.
En el periodo del 2003 al 2017 fueron electos gobiernos progresistas con una agenda posneoliberal. Fatiga de reformas, exceso de ideología de mercado, poco respeto por las instituciones democráticas de parte de los gobiernos neoliberales, baja de los salarios, precarización laboral, incremento del empleo informal, desmantelamiento de los sindicatos, y desenfado ideológico en los medios de comunicación oficiales saturaron a la ciudadanía. A mediados de la segunda década del siglo XXI, apenas una década después de haber llegado al Gobierno los partidos progresistas, estos comenzaron a perder la popularidad y las elecciones. Lo que se va a revisar en el presente texto es por qué ocurrió eso de manera casi simultánea, revisando variables económicas y políticas. En este texto haremos una revisión de algunas variables de los principales problemas económicos enfrentados, e igualmente se procederá a revisar los problemas políticos y sus variables para terminar con una conclusión sobre los problemas que plantean los gobiernos que intentaron aproximarse a políticas progresistas o al socialismo del siglo XXI. ; In the period from 2003 to 2017 progressive governments were elected with a post-neoliberal agenda. Fatigue of reforms, excess of market ideology, little respect for democratic institutions by neoliberal governments, low wages, job insecurity, increase of informal employment, dismantling of unions, and ideological self-assurance in the official media saturated the citizenship. In the middle of the second decade of the 21st century, barely a decade after the progressive parties where elected to government, they began to lose popularity and elections. What is going to be reviewed in the present text is why this happened almost simultaneously, reviewing economic and political variables. In this text we will review some variables of the main economic problems faced and also proceed to review the political problems and their variables. The end is a conclusion about the problems posed by governments that tried to approach progressive policies or the socialism of the XXI century.
