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There is a recurrent discussion about the small size of the U.S. House of Representatives in comparison with most democratic assemblies. A few days ago, Danielle Allen from Harvard made a good case for increasing the size of the House within a framework of democracy renovation (The Washington Post, March 1). She argues that, as the U.S. House has the highest ratio of population per seat of any OECD country, the representatives are much removed from their constituents. My point is that the federal structure of the very large United States and its multiple channels for people's participation may allow for a functional explanation of a relatively small House that may not work for more centralized nations.
From a worldwide perspective, it has been found that the best approximation for the size of the democratic national assembly in number of seats is to take the cube root of the population, as initially formulated by Rein Taagepera. For most countries, the number of inhabitants amounts to millions, so the cube root must be in the hundreds (that is, some figures with six zeros can be transformed into figures with two zeros). For example, as Mexico has about 122mn inhabitants, the cube root of this number closely approaches the 500 seats of its Chamber of Deputies. In Italy, with 59mn people, the Chamber of Deputies was oversized but it was recently reduced via referendum from 630 to 400 seats, which fits the cube root law.
According to this standard, the U.S. House of Representatives is undersized. During the nineteenth century, the size of the House regularly increased every ten years to account for population growth according to the decennial census. But despite the further increase in the country's population, the House has remained frozen since it was fixed at 435 seats in 1911. At that moment this was an almost exact fit with the cube root of the population. A 1929 Act capped the size of the House until now.
Some studies suggest that the discussion in the House at that time reflected the fear of third-party growth, namely the Progressive Party and its left-wing cousins. Much less compellingly, it was also argued that the room for plenary meetings on Capitol Hill would be too small for much larger gatherings.
A larger assembly would certainly create more competitive districts and would facilitate the election of more representatives from minority parties and groups. However, in the complex political structure of the federal United States, other institutional devices, especially broad decentralization into a high number of states, have compensated for the federal House's small size and its restrictive political consequences.
The trade-off between federalism and multipartyism comes from a long history. If in a large country, multiple territorial governments are established, as it was from the very beginning in the United States, much political action tends to focus on those local institutions; it is then less likely that multiple political parties are formed at the federal level, and as a consequence, there is less pressure to adopt a large assembly and an electoral system favoring national representation of multiple political parties.
The effect is extreme in this country, which, with 50 states, is the most decentralized in the world. The very high number of states somehow compensates for small federal representation. A logical inference is that an increase in the size of the House would make it more inclusive, with more diverse partisan affiliations, which would push for a stronger federal government. Some issues that are now mainly debated and decided by the state legislatures would be channeled to Congress as territorial demands by the additional state representatives in Washington.
The trade-off can also be observed from the inverse extreme case. In the oldest British democracy, the assembly size has also been frozen for a long period, but on the other direction: the House of Commons, with 650 seats, is largely oversized regarding the country's population and the cube root law. Not by chance, the United Kingdom is the most centralized large democracy, where most territorial tensions are channeled toward London. Right now, there are ten parties in the House of Commons, six of them based in Scotland, Wales, or Northern Ireland. Not surprisingly, the House room is too small and many MPs have to stand up during its plenary sessions.
The main point is that in a long-durable democracy, the trade-off between the size of the national assembly and territorial decentralization must keep a consistently bounded relationship. It is not possible to alter significantly an institution without affecting the balance of the other.
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See also my article:
"Equilibrium Institutions: The Federal-Proportional Trade-Off" - click
Komentiraju se slijed dosadašnjih pokušaja te aktualni napo-ri u vezi s decentralizacijom. Elaborira se četrnaest prijedloga za korjenitu decentralizaciju, koja jedina ima smisla ako se lokalna i regionalna samouprava želi konstituirati kao jedan od ključnih aktera ekonomskog, društvenog i socijalnog razvoja te ekonomske stabilnosti zemlje. Riječ je o: oblikovanju strategije decentralizacije; u čvršćenju strukture za regionalni razvoj; zadržavanja dvostupanjske strukture terito- rijalne samouprave, ali različite od postojeće; formiranju pet regija umjesto sadašnjih dvadeset županija; spajanju preko 550 lokalnih jedinica u 150 velikih općina; zadržavanju i ja-č anju mjesne samouprave; preoblikovanje županija u uprav- ne okruge s primjenom načela one-stop-shop, smanjenjem broja tih okruga na desetak i širenjem njihova djelokruga na poslove sadašnjih područnih jedinica središnjih tijela državne uprave; jačanju financijskog kapaciteta lokalne samouprave tako da se dosegne udio lokalnih rashoda u rashodima opće drž ave od 25% u narednih pet godina; uvođenju mješovitog izbornog sustava tako da se pored proporcionalnog uvede većinsko predstavništvo; formiranju Agencije za lokalne službenike kao nezavisnog tijela na razini države; usposta- vi jedinstvenog informacijskog sustava lokalne samouprave; prenošenju dijela poslova državne uprave na obavljanje većim jedinicama lokalne samouprave; formiranju ekspertne radne skupine za pripremu decentralizacije; planiranju decentralizacije tako da se čitav program provede do lokalnih izbora 2017. Navode se i mogućnosti usavršavanja postojećeg centraliziranog modela organizacije države, ponajprije kroz diferencijaciju položaja objektivno različitih jedinica te poticanje i nametanje intermunicipalne suradnje. ; The paper begins with a comment on the sequence of previous attempts at decentralisation and a description of current efforts made concerning the decentralisation process. Fourteen suggestions for substantive decentralisation are elaborated. A substantive decentralisation is the only reasonable decentralisation form if local and regional self-government is to be constituted as one of the key actors of economic and social development, and of economic stability of the country. These fourteen sugges- tions include: (1) designing a decentralisation strategy; (2) strengthening the structure for regional development; (3) maintaining the two-tier system of territorial self-government, which should nevertheless differ from the existing model; (4) forming five regions instead of the existing twenty counties; (5) merging more than 550 local units into 150 large municipalities; (6) maintaining and strengthening forms of intra-municipal self-government; (7) reshaping counties into state administrative units with the implementation of one-stop-shop principle, by reducing them to ten units and by widening their competences to the tasks of the existing branch of- fices of various ministries; (8) strengthening the financial capacity of local self-government so as to rise the share of local expenditures in the general state expenditures to 25 per cent in the next five years; (9) considering the introduction of mixed electoral system, so as to introduce plurality representation along with proportional; (10) establishing an Agency for Local Civil Servants as a central level independent body; (11) establishing an integrated information system on local governments; (12) transferring certain state administrative tasks to larger local self-government units; (13) forming an group of experts that would professionaly prepare decentralisation; (14) planning decentralisation so that the whole programme will have been finished by 2017 local elections. The author has also made suggestions for the another scenario – improvement of the existing cen- tralised model of state organisation, primarily via deeper differentiation between the objectively different local units, and stimulation and imposition of intermunicipal cooperation.
Schools and families share responsibilities for the socialisation and education of the child. The involvement of parents in the life of schools and their participation in school activities and decision-making is a major vehicle for constructing shared goals and co-ordinated practices. It is a democratic accountability mechanism to be pursued as a value per se, and can be a strong predictor of the child's academic achievement. However, parent participation is an underexplored area in the public education systems of SEE countries. For the purpose of better understanding how and to what extent parents are involved and influential in school life, and to explore the ways in which variations in school-based activities seeking to engage parents reinforce or ameliorate social exclusion, a large-scale study was conducted in ten SEE countries: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Kosovo, Macedonia, Moldova, Montenegro, Romania and Serbia. The analysis of legislative acts and other documentation revealed that educational bodies with parental participation are regularly found at the school level, such as school boards and parent councils, while representation is negligible above the school level. Schools in all SEE countries have school boards with decision-making power in which parents also participate, with varying shares, although their number never prevails. In Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Montenegro, Romania and Serbia school parent councils with a consultative role also exist, comprised of class parent representatives. Romania also has a national federation of parent associations, Bosnia and Herzegovina cantonal associations of parent-school co-operation, Kosovo a parent committee established by the Minister, while Albania has several free parent associations. At the municipal level, no parental organisations or participatory bodies have been detected. The main part of the research consists of a comparative empirical analysis which explored the views of parents on parent-school collaboration and their participation in school life according to six broad dimensions (parent-teacher meetings, getting relevant information from school, assistance with learning at home, volunteering at school, participating in school decision-making, and mediating community-school relationships), along with parents' role attribution between the family and school, parental beliefs about school-parent partnerships, parents' motivation and sense of self-efficacy. The empirical research was inspired by Epstein's framework of parent involvement (Epstein, 1996), Sheridan & Kratochwill's conceptualisation of partnership versus the traditional approach to family-school relations (Sheridan and Kratochwill, 2007), Hoover-Dempsey's model of the parental involvement process (Hoover-Dempsey, 2007), scattered research evidence from the SEE countries indicating a prevalent traditional approach in school-family relationships (e.g. Polovina, 2007), a recent study on principals' views on parent participation showing limited efforts and effectiveness in meaningfully engaging parents on the school side (Pop, 2009) and a preliminary qualitative study including focus groups from all participating countries conducted with the aim to refine the research questions and create a valid instrument. A total of 11, 125 parents were surveyed with structured face-to face interviews, selected by stratified random sampling. The stratification was undertaken according to relevant geographical regions and by the location of the community served by the school (urban/rural). 30 schools were selected from each country and between 20 and 40 parents were randomly chosen from each school, proportional to the size of the school as well as five parents' representatives. In each country, a booster sample of parents was interviewed from two additional schools in communities which contained a high proportion of inhabitants who are Roma (except in Moldova, where other excluded communities were targeted). The main structure of the sample (including the main sample, parent representatives samples and Roma booster samples) was the following: Sample A (mainstream – regular parents sample): 9058 Sample E (Roma parents from the excluded parents sample): 504 Sample B (parents' representatives sample): 1354 Parent representatives from Sample E school: 85 Sample E (non-Roma parents from the excluded parents sample): 124 The questionnaire which was the basis for the interviews captured the following data: • socio-economic data on the child's family (wealth indicator, education level, education aspirations etc.) and basic information about the child (age, gender, school achievement etc.) ; • a report on participation in school life, which combined Epstein's dimensions of participation (whether the school invites parents to participate according to each dimension) with basic characteristics of the participation process (how parents feel about it, do they participate if invited, do they assess it as useful, are they motivated, do they feel competent etc.) ; • mediating variables – self-reports on the motivation of parents, their beliefs about school-parent partnerships and perceptions of school openness, and of the work of the parent representatives ; and • a self-assessment of parents' satisfaction with the child's well-being and progress at school, the communication with the school and with the influence the parent can exert. Parent representatives and parents from minority groups were surveyed with special additional sets of questions. The analysis of legislative acts and other documentation revealed that educational bodies with parental participation are regularly found at the school level, such as school boards and parent councils, while representation is negligible above the school level. Schools in all SEE countries have school boards with decision-making power in which parents also participate, with varying shares, although their number never prevails. In Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Montenegro, Romania and Serbia school parent councils with a consultative role also exist, comprised of class parent representatives. Romania also has a national federation of parent associations, Bosnia and Herzegovina cantonal associations of parent-school co-operation, Kosovo a parent committee established by the Minister, while Albania has several free parent associations. At the municipal level, no parental organisations or participatory bodies have been detected. The main part of the research consists of a comparative empirical analysis which explored the views of parents on parent-school collaboration and their participation in school life according to six broad dimensions (parent-teacher meetings, getting relevant information from school, assistance with learning at home, volunteering at school, participating in school decision-making, and mediating community-school relationships), along with parents' role attribution between the family and school, parental beliefs about school-parent partnerships, parents' motivation and sense of self-efficacy. The empirical research was inspired by Epstein's framework of parent involvement (Epstein, 1996), Sheridan & Kratochwill's conceptualisation of partnership versus the traditional approach to family-school relations (Sheridan and Kratochwill, 2007), Hoover-Dempsey's model of the parental involvement process (Hoover-Dempsey, 2007), scattered research evidence from the SEE countries indicating a prevalent traditional approach in school-family relationships (e.g. Polovina, 2007), a recent study on principals' views on parent participation showing limited efforts and effectiveness in meaningfully engaging parents on the school side (Pop, 2009) and a preliminary qualitative study including focus groups from all participating countries conducted with the aim to refine the research questions and create a valid instrument. A total of 11, 125 parents were surveyed with structured face-to face interviews, selected by stratified random sampling. The stratification was undertaken according to relevant geographical regions and by the location of the community served by the school (urban/rural). 30 schools were selected from each country and between 20 and 40 parents were randomly chosen from each school, proportional to the size of the school as well as five parents' representatives. In each country, a booster sample of parents was interviewed from two additional schools in communities which contained a high proportion of inhabitants who are Roma (except in Moldova, where other excluded communities were targeted). The main structure of the sample (including the main sample, parent representatives samples and Roma booster samples) was the following: Sample A (mainstream – regular parents sample): 9058 Sample E (Roma parents from the excluded parents sample): 504 Sample B (parents' representatives sample): 1354 Parent representatives from Sample E school: 85 Sample E (non-Roma parents from the excluded parents sample): 124 The questionnaire which was the basis for the interviews captured the following data: • socio-economic data on the child's family (wealth indicator, education level, education aspirations etc.) and basic information about the child (age, gender, school achievement etc.) ; • a report on participation in school life, which combined Epstein's dimensions of participation (whether the school invites parents to participate according to each dimension) with basic characteristics of the participation process (how parents feel about it, do they participate if invited, do they assess it as useful, are they motivated, do they feel competent etc.) ; • mediating variables – self-reports on the motivation of parents, their beliefs about school-parent partnerships and perceptions of school openness, and of the work of the parent representatives ; and • a self-assessment of parents' satisfaction with the child's well-being and progress at school, the communication with the school and with the influence the parent can exert. Parent representatives and parents from minority groups were surveyed with special additional sets of questions.
Precarious employment (PE), representing a multidimensional construct of (poor) employment conditions, has been found associated with several health outcomes. However, there is a lack of a recognized definition of PE and studies have varied greatly in their assessment of PE. In addition, previous studies have been limited in their design, the impact of labor market mobility among PEs has seldomly been explored, and a range of health outcomes are yet understudied. Further, in Sweden, response rates to national surveys have continuously decreased, calling for alternative sampling strategies. The aim of this thesis was hence two-fold: 1) to explore, develop and apply novel sampling- and exposureassessment methods to study precarious employment in the Swedish labor market, and by its application, 2) study associations between precarious employment and health. In Study I, the aim was to assess the performance of web-based respondent driven sampling among non-standard, precarious, employees in Stockholm County. The method was implemented between November 2016 and May 2017, and the resulting sample size (n=415), response rate (62%) and wave depth (1-15 waves) were considered acceptable. Equilibrium was reached for the variables assessed and estimations could be performed. In Study III, the aim was to operationalize PE with a typological and summative scale approach in register-data. PE was operationalized through five items and three dimensions in the Swedish working population of 2014, by the means of labor market data (LISA) (n=4,349,322). Through the typological approach, assessed by means of latent class analysis, one PE-type ("PER") as well as five other employment types emerged. In the summative scale approach, scores ranged between -10 and +2 and >80% of individuals in the PER-type fell beneath the 25th percentile. The PER-type was generally associated with sociodemographic and occupational characteristics previously recognized as overrepresented in PE. In Study II, the aim was to study the associations between PE and self-reported health. Generalized linear models with Poisson distribution were applied for degree of PE, as assessed with the Swedish version of the Employment Precariousness Scale, and self-reported general health, mental health, and musculoskeletal pain. High PE was associated with poor general (a2PR 1.8, 95%CI: 1.2-2.6) and mental health (a2PR 1.7, 95%CI: 1.3-2.2). In Study IV, the aim was to estimate the risk of diagnosed common mental disorders, substance use disorders, and suicide attempt, as dependent on low-quality employment trajectories. Repeated measures latent class analysis was applied on LISA-data of the Swedish working population across 2005-2009 (n=2,743,764). The resulting six employment types, together with unemployment, were grouped in employment trajectories according to constant, fluctuating, and directional mobility patterns. Ten of the resulting 21 trajectories were considered as low quality. Diagnoses were retrieved from the national patient register between 2010-2017. Relative risk was estimated by cox proportional hazards regression models. Low-quality employment trajectories increased the risk of common mental disorders (a2HR range: 1.1-1.6), substance use disorders (a2HR range: 1.1- 2.2) and suicide attempt (a2HR range: 1.1-1.8). Gender differences emerged in the distribution of trajectories as well as in mental health risk. In conclusion, this thesis provided alternative methods in recruiting, sampling and studying precarious employees in the Swedish labor market. Associations between PE, low-quality employment trajectories and poor health were found, particularly so in terms of mental health - results which emphasize the need to combat PE. Improving employment conditions is central, including stability of employment and protection from unemployment, decent wages, and union representation, i.e., decent employment conditions across a life-course perspective. The dynamic nature of the labor market constitutes a need for surveillance of the development of precarious conditions. Further knowledge gaps remain to be filled, including studies of physical health outcomes, as well as mental health outcomes currently understudied, such as substance use disorders and suicide. Moving forward, alignment of definition and assessment of PE is crucial to enhance cross-comparisons across studies and contexts. Longitudinal studies with life-course approaches, in which mechanisms and differentially affected sociodemographic groups are studied, would further serve to establish evidence on the negative health effects of PE, but also shed light on how employment precariousness and poor health could be alleviated through policy and labor market legislations.
Die Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (CSES) ist eine weltweite Kooperation von Wahlforschern. Teilnehmende Länder implementieren einen einheitlichen Fragenkomplex in ihre Nachwahlstudien. Die erhoben Daten umfassen das individuelle Wahlverhalten, politische Einstellungen und sozio-demographische Merkmale sowie Angaben zu den Wahlbezirken, den nationalen Wahlergebnissen und dem nationalen politischen System. Die einzelnen Länderstudien werden in einen gemeinsamen Datensatz integriert und stehen der Wissenschaft für vergleichende und länderübergreifende Untersuchungen frei zur Verfügung.
Das CSES-Projekt konzentriert sich auf das Verhalten und die Einstellungen von Befragten während einer nationalen Wahl, wobei der Schwerpunkt auf Abstimmung und Wahlbeteiligung liegt. Jedes CSES-Modul besteht aus einer national-repräsentativen Umfrage nach den Wahlen und zusätzlichen Variablen über den Kontext des Landes und des Wahlsystems, in dem sich die Befragten befinden. Alle fünf Jahre wird ein neues CSES-Modul mit einem anderen inhaltlichen Thema entwickelt, das für die Behandlung wesentlicher Fragen der Wahl- und Sozialwissenschaften ausgewählt wurde.
CSES Modul 5 konzentriert sich auf die Untersuchung der so genannten ´populistischen Einstellungen´ in der Bevölkerung und wie sie das Wahlverhalten beeinflussen. Es konzentriert sich auf die Messung von drei Kernthemen: Einstellungen gegenüber politischen Eliten, Einstellungen gegenüber repräsentativer Demokratie und Mehrheitsregierung sowie Einstellungen gegenüber Außengruppen.
Weitere Informationen zum Thema des Moduls 5 finden Sie in der theoretischen Erklärung zum CSES-Modul 5, die auf der CSES-Website verfügbar ist.
Themen:
DATEN AUF MIKROEBENE:
Identifizierungs- und Studienadministrationsvariablen: Gewichtungsfaktoren; Art der Wahl; Datum der Wahl der ersten und zweiten Runde; Zeitpunkt der Studie (Nachwahlstudie, Vor- und Nachwahlstudie, zwischen den Runden der Mehrheitswahl); Studienkontext (CSES als Teil einer größeren Studie oder als eigenständige Studie durchgeführt); Art des Interviews; Selbstauswahl Interviewmodus; Dauer des Interviews; Interviewer-ID; Geschlecht des Interviewers; Anzahl der Tage nach der Wahl für den Beginn der Datenerhebung; Dauer der Feldarbeit; Datum des Fragebogens; Anzahl der Tage, an denen das Interview nach der ersten und zweiten Wahlrunde durchgeführt wurde; Sprache der Fragebogenadministration; Fragebogenversion.
Demographie: Geburtsjahr und -monat; Geschlecht; Bildung; Familienstand; Gewerkschaftszugehörigkeit; aktueller Erwerbsstatus; Hauptberuf; sozioökonomischer Status; Beschäftigungsart - öffentlich oder privat; Haushaltseinkommen; Anzahl der Personen im Haushalt; Kirchgangshäufigkeit; Konfession; Sprache, die üblicherweise zu Hause gesprochen wird; Wohnregion; Rasse; ethnische Zugehörigkeit; ländlicher oder städtischer Wohnsitz; Hauptwahlkreis; Geburtsland; Migrationshintergrund.
Umfragevariablen: politisches Interesse; Interesse an der Politik in den Medien; innere Wirksamkeit; Einstellung zu politischen Eliten; Einstellung zu Außengruppen (Minderheiten sollten sich den Bräuchen und Traditionen des Landes anpassen, der Wille der Mehrheit sollte immer vorherrschen, Einwanderer sind im Allgemeinen gut für die Wirtschaft des Landes, die Kultur des Landes wird generell von Einwanderern geschädigt, Einwanderer erhöhen die Kriminalitätsrate); Kriterien für nationale Identität (z.B. im Land geboren, Abstammung, Landessprachen sprechen können, Bräuche und Traditionen des Landes befolgen); Verbreitung von Korruption; Regierungsmaßnahmen: Forderung nach Regierungsmaßnahmen zum Abbau von Einkommensunterschieden; Einstellung gegenüber Umverteilung; Bewertung der Leistung der Regierung im Allgemeinen; Parteien, die die Ansichten des Befragten vertreten; Partei, die die Ansichten des Befragten am besten vertritt; Zustand der Wirtschaft; Befragte hat bei der aktuellen und der vorherigen Wahl eine Stimme abgegeben; Wahl (Präsidentschafts-, Unterhaus- und Oberhauswahlen) bei der aktuellen und der vorherigen Wahl; Befragte hat bei der aktuellen Wahl eine Vorzugsentscheidung abgegeben; Stimmenwahl für die scheidende Regierung bei der aktuellen Hauptwahl; Unterschied, wer an der Macht ist und für wen die Menschen stimmen; Sympathie-Skala für ausgewählte Parteien und politische Führer; Bewertung von Parteien auf einer Links-Rechts-Skala und einer optionalen alternativen Skala; Selbsteinschätzung auf der Links-Rechts-Skala und einer optionalen alternativen Skala; Demokratiezufriedenheit; Nähe zu einer politischen Partei; Parteiidentifikation; Partei, der sich der Befragte am nächsten fühlt; Intensität der Parteiidentifikation.
DATEN AUF BEZIRKSEBENE:
Anzahl der im Wahlkreis/ bundesweiten Wahlkreis umkämpften Sitze; Anzahl der Kandidaten (Bezirk/ bundesweiter Wahlkreis); Anzahl der Parteienlisten (Bezirk/ bundesweiter Wahlkreis); Prozentsatz der Stimmen verschiedener Parteien (Wahlkreis/ bundesweiter Wahlkreis); offizielle Wahlbeteiligung im Wahlkreis/ bundesweiter Wahlkreis.
DATEN AUF MAKROEBENE:
Wähleranteil oder Bevölkerung im Wahlkreis / bundesweiten Wahlkreis; Wahlergebnisse der Parteien bei der aktuellen Parlamentswahl (Unterhaus/Oberhaus); Prozentsatz der Sitze im Unterhaus bei den Parteien bei der aktuellen Unterhauswahl/Oberhauswahl; Prozentsatz der Sitze im Oberhaus bei den Parteien bei der aktuellen Unterhauswahl/Oberhauswahl; Prozentsatz der Stimmen bei den Präsidentschaftskandidaten der Parteien bei den laufenden Wahlen; Wahlbeteiligung (in Prozent der registrierten Wähler/des Wahlalters der Bevölkerung); Wahlmanagement: Wahlverwaltungsmodell (unabhängiges Organ, Regierung, gemischt); obligatorische Wählerregistrierung; Art der Stimmabgabe; Partei des Präsidenten und des Premierministers vor und nach der Wahl; Anzahl der von jeder Partei im Kabinett gehaltenen Portfolios, vor und nach der letzten Wahl; Größe des Kabinetts nach der letzten Wahl; ideologische Parteifamilien; von Experten zugewiesene Links-rechts-Position der Parteien und alternative Dimensionen; Populismus nach Parteien; Populismus-Skala der Parteien; die wichtigsten Faktoren bei der Wahl; Fairness der Wahl; formelle Beschwerden über Ergebnisse auf nationaler Ebene; gemeldete Wahlunregelmäßigkeiten; geplantes und durchgeführtes Wahldatum; Unregelmäßigkeiten des Wahltermins; Ausmaß der Gewalt bei der Wahl und nach den Wahlen; geografische Konzentration der Gewalt; Protest nach den Wahlen; während des Wahlkampfes zulässige Wahlbündnisse; Wahlbündnisse in der Praxis; Bildung von Wahlbündnissen; Anforderungen an gemeinsame Parteienlisten; Möglichkeit der Anerkennung und Art der Anerkennungsvereinbarung; mehrheitliche Befürwortung der Abstimmung; abgegebene Stimmen; Abstimmungsverfahren; Abstimmungsrunden; Parteienlisten geschlossen, offen oder flexibel; übertragbare Stimmen; kumulierte Stimmen, wenn mehr als eine Stimme abgegeben werden kann; Pflichtabstimmung; Parteienschwelle; Einheit für die Schwelle; Freedom House Rating; Alter des derzeitigen Systems; Regime: Art der Exekutive; Anzahl der Monate seit der letzten Unterhauswahl und den letzten Präsidentschaftswahlen; Wahlformel für Präsidentschaftswahlen; Wahlformel in allen Wahlstufen (mehrheitlich, proportional oder gemischt); für Unter- und Oberhäuser wurde kodiert: Anzahl der Wahlsegmente; vernetzte Wahlsegmente; abhängige Formeln in gemischten Systemen; Subtypen der gemischten Wahlsysteme; Bezirksgröße (Anzahl der aus jedem Bezirk gewählten Mitglieder); Anzahl der sekundären und tertiären Wahlkreise; Anzahl der Sitze über dem ersten Segment (Unterhaus); fusionierte Abstimmung; Größe des Unterhauses; verfassungsmäßige föderale Struktur; Anzahl der Parlamentskammern; Anteil der Frauen im Parlament; Parteienfinanzierung: direkte oder indirekte öffentliche Finanzierung; Anzahl der an den Wahlen teilnehmenden Parteien; effektive Anzahl der Wahlparteien und Parlamentsfraktionen; direkte Demokratie (Referendum obligatorisch, optional, durch Bürgerinitiative, Referendumsergebnis verbindlich oder konsultiv); Freiheitsgrad des Freedom House im Land zu drei Zeitpunkten (Wahljahr, ein Jahr vor der Wahl und zwei Jahre vor der Wahl); Bewertung der Demokratie-Autokratie-Politik IV; Gini-Koeffizient des verfügbaren Einkommens im Jahr der Wahl; BIP-Wachstum (in Prozent pro Jahr - Weltbank); BIP pro Kopf; Inflation, BIP-Deflator (in Prozent pro Jahr); Verschuldung der Zentralregierung, insgesamt (in Prozent BIP); Human development index; Gesamtbevölkerung; Arbeitslosenquote (in Prozent der gesamten Erwerbsbevölkerung); Arbeitslosenquote für Personen im Alter von 15-24 Jahren (in Prozent der gesamten Erwerbsbevölkerung); Land unterliegt bei Wahlen der Konditionalität des Internationalen Währungsfonds; Transparency International Index für die Wahrnehmung der Korruption; Index für die Kontrolle der Korruption; Beurteilung des öffentlichen Sektors durch Experten: Unternehmen, die den Beamten die vorteilhaftesten Bestechungsgelder bieten; Angestellte des öffentlichen Dienstes und wie sie die Gesellschaft behandeln; Häufigkeit, mit der Angestellte des öffentlichen Dienstes Fälle unparteiisch behandeln und nach Einhaltung der Regeln streben; Nettomigrationsrate (2000-2005, 2005-2010, 2010-2015, 2015-2020); Bevölkerung nach Staatsangehörigkeit: Prozentsatz der Bevölkerung, die Bürger, Ausländer oder unbekannter Staatsangehörigkeitsstatus sind; sprachlicher Fraktionierungsindex; religiöser Fraktionierungsindex, ethnischer Fraktionierungsindex; Fragmentierungsindex des Gemeinwesens; Prozentsatz der Personen, die das Internet nutzen; Mobilfunkabonnements pro 100 Einwohner; feste Telefonleitungen pro 100 Einwohner; Parteiidentifikationscodes aus dem Manifesto Research on Political Representation Project (MARPOR/CMP); Parteiidentifikationscodes aus dem Parliament and Government Database (ParlGov) project.
Die Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (CSES) ist eine weltweite Kooperation von Wahlforschern. Teilnehmende Länder implementieren einen einheitlichen Fragenkomplex in ihre Nachwahlstudien. Die erhoben Daten umfassen das individuelle Wahlverhalten, politische Einstellungen und sozio-demographische Merkmale sowie Angaben zu den Wahlbezirken, den nationalen Wahlergebnissen und dem nationalen politischen System. Die einzelnen Länderstudien werden in einen gemeinsamen Datensatz integriert und stehen der Wissenschaft für vergleichende und länderübergreifende Untersuchungen frei zur Verfügung.
Das CSES-Projekt konzentriert sich auf das Verhalten und die Einstellungen von Befragten während einer nationalen Wahl, wobei der Schwerpunkt auf Abstimmung und Wahlbeteiligung liegt. Jedes CSES-Modul besteht aus einer national-repräsentativen Umfrage nach den Wahlen und zusätzlichen Variablen über den Kontext des Landes und des Wahlsystems, in dem sich die Befragten befinden. Alle fünf Jahre wird ein neues CSES-Modul mit einem anderen inhaltlichen Thema entwickelt, das für die Behandlung wesentlicher Fragen der Wahl- und Sozialwissenschaften ausgewählt wurde.
CSES Modul 5 konzentriert sich auf die Untersuchung der so genannten ´populistischen Einstellungen´ in der Bevölkerung und wie sie das Wahlverhalten beeinflussen. Es konzentriert sich auf die Messung von drei Kernthemen: Einstellungen gegenüber politischen Eliten, Einstellungen gegenüber repräsentativer Demokratie und Mehrheitsregierung sowie Einstellungen gegenüber Außengruppen.
Weitere Informationen zum Thema des Moduls 5 finden Sie in der theoretischen Erklärung zum CSES-Modul 5, die auf der CSES-Website verfügbar ist.
Themen:
DATEN AUF MIKROEBENE:
Identifizierungs- und Studienadministrationsvariablen: Gewichtungsfaktoren; Art der Wahl; Datum der Wahl der ersten und zweiten Runde; Zeitpunkt der Studie (Nachwahlstudie, Vor- und Nachwahlstudie, zwischen den Runden der Mehrheitswahl); Studienkontext (CSES als Teil einer größeren Studie oder als eigenständige Studie durchgeführt); Art des Interviews; Selbstauswahl Interviewmodus; Dauer des Interviews; Interviewer-ID; Geschlecht des Interviewers; Anzahl der Tage nach der Wahl für den Beginn der Datenerhebung; Dauer der Feldarbeit; Datum des Fragebogens; Anzahl der Tage, an denen das Interview nach der ersten und zweiten Wahlrunde durchgeführt wurde; Sprache der Fragebogenadministration; Fragebogenversion.
Demographie: Geburtsjahr und -monat; Geschlecht; Bildung; Familienstand; Gewerkschaftszugehörigkeit; aktueller Erwerbsstatus; Hauptberuf; sozioökonomischer Status; Beschäftigungsart - öffentlich oder privat; Haushaltseinkommen; Anzahl der Personen im Haushalt; Kirchgangshäufigkeit; Konfession; Sprache, die üblicherweise zu Hause gesprochen wird; Wohnregion; Rasse; ethnische Zugehörigkeit; ländlicher oder städtischer Wohnsitz; Hauptwahlkreis; Geburtsland; Migrationshintergrund.
Umfragevariablen: politisches Interesse; Interesse an der Politik in den Medien; innere Wirksamkeit; Einstellung zu politischen Eliten; Einstellung zu Außengruppen (Minderheiten sollten sich den Bräuchen und Traditionen des Landes anpassen, der Wille der Mehrheit sollte immer vorherrschen, Einwanderer sind im Allgemeinen gut für die Wirtschaft des Landes, die Kultur des Landes wird generell von Einwanderern geschädigt, Einwanderer erhöhen die Kriminalitätsrate); Kriterien für nationale Identität (z.B. im Land geboren, Abstammung, Landessprachen sprechen können, Bräuche und Traditionen des Landes befolgen); Verbreitung von Korruption; Regierungsmaßnahmen: Forderung nach Regierungsmaßnahmen zum Abbau von Einkommensunterschieden; Einstellung gegenüber Umverteilung; Bewertung der Leistung der Regierung im Allgemeinen; Parteien, die die Ansichten des Befragten vertreten; Partei, die die Ansichten des Befragten am besten vertritt; Zustand der Wirtschaft; Befragte hat bei der aktuellen und der vorherigen Wahl eine Stimme abgegeben; Wahl (Präsidentschafts-, Unterhaus- und Oberhauswahlen) bei der aktuellen und der vorherigen Wahl; Befragte hat bei der aktuellen Wahl eine Vorzugsentscheidung abgegeben; Stimmenwahl für die scheidende Regierung bei der aktuellen Hauptwahl; Unterschied, wer an der Macht ist und für wen die Menschen stimmen; Sympathie-Skala für ausgewählte Parteien und politische Führer; Bewertung von Parteien auf einer Links-Rechts-Skala und einer optionalen alternativen Skala; Selbsteinschätzung auf der Links-Rechts-Skala und einer optionalen alternativen Skala; Demokratiezufriedenheit; Nähe zu einer politischen Partei; Parteiidentifikation; Partei, der sich der Befragte am nächsten fühlt; Intensität der Parteiidentifikation.
DATEN AUF BEZIRKSEBENE:
Anzahl der im Wahlkreis/ bundesweiten Wahlkreis umkämpften Sitze; Anzahl der Kandidaten (Bezirk/ bundesweiter Wahlkreis); Anzahl der Parteienlisten (Bezirk/ bundesweiter Wahlkreis); Prozentsatz der Stimmen verschiedener Parteien (Wahlkreis/ bundesweiter Wahlkreis); offizielle Wahlbeteiligung im Wahlkreis/ bundesweiter Wahlkreis.
DATEN AUF MAKROEBENE:
Wähleranteil oder Bevölkerung im Wahlkreis / bundesweiten Wahlkreis; Wahlergebnisse der Parteien bei der aktuellen Parlamentswahl (Unterhaus/Oberhaus); Prozentsatz der Sitze im Unterhaus bei den Parteien bei der aktuellen Unterhauswahl/Oberhauswahl; Prozentsatz der Sitze im Oberhaus bei den Parteien bei der aktuellen Unterhauswahl/Oberhauswahl; Prozentsatz der Stimmen bei den Präsidentschaftskandidaten der Parteien bei den laufenden Wahlen; Wahlbeteiligung (in Prozent der registrierten Wähler/des Wahlalters der Bevölkerung); Wahlmanagement: Wahlverwaltungsmodell (unabhängiges Organ, Regierung, gemischt); obligatorische Wählerregistrierung; Art der Stimmabgabe; Partei des Präsidenten und des Premierministers vor und nach der Wahl; Anzahl der von jeder Partei im Kabinett gehaltenen Portfolios, vor und nach der letzten Wahl; Größe des Kabinetts nach der letzten Wahl; ideologische Parteifamilien; von Experten zugewiesene Links-rechts-Position der Parteien und alternative Dimensionen; Populismus nach Parteien; Populismus-Skala der Parteien; die wichtigsten Faktoren bei der Wahl; Fairness der Wahl; formelle Beschwerden über Ergebnisse auf nationaler Ebene; gemeldete Wahlunregelmäßigkeiten; geplantes und durchgeführtes Wahldatum; Unregelmäßigkeiten des Wahltermins; Ausmaß der Gewalt bei der Wahl und nach den Wahlen; geografische Konzentration der Gewalt; Protest nach den Wahlen; während des Wahlkampfes zulässige Wahlbündnisse; Wahlbündnisse in der Praxis; Bildung von Wahlbündnissen; Anforderungen an gemeinsame Parteienlisten; Möglichkeit der Anerkennung und Art der Anerkennungsvereinbarung; mehrheitliche Befürwortung der Abstimmung; abgegebene Stimmen; Abstimmungsverfahren; Abstimmungsrunden; Parteienlisten geschlossen, offen oder flexibel; übertragbare Stimmen; kumulierte Stimmen, wenn mehr als eine Stimme abgegeben werden kann; Pflichtabstimmung; Parteienschwelle; Einheit für die Schwelle; Freedom House Rating; Alter des derzeitigen Systems; Regime: Art der Exekutive; Anzahl der Monate seit der letzten Unterhauswahl und den letzten Präsidentschaftswahlen; Wahlformel für Präsidentschaftswahlen; Wahlformel in allen Wahlstufen (mehrheitlich, proportional oder gemischt); für Unter- und Oberhäuser wurde kodiert: Anzahl der Wahlsegmente; vernetzte Wahlsegmente; abhängige Formeln in gemischten Systemen; Subtypen der gemischten Wahlsysteme; Bezirksgröße (Anzahl der aus jedem Bezirk gewählten Mitglieder); Anzahl der sekundären und tertiären Wahlkreise; Anzahl der Sitze über dem ersten Segment (Unterhaus); fusionierte Abstimmung; Größe des Unterhauses; verfassungsmäßige föderale Struktur; Anzahl der Parlamentskammern; Anteil der Frauen im Parlament; Parteienfinanzierung: direkte oder indirekte öffentliche Finanzierung; Anzahl der an den Wahlen teilnehmenden Parteien; effektive Anzahl der Wahlparteien und Parlamentsfraktionen; direkte Demokratie (Referendum obligatorisch, optional, durch Bürgerinitiative, Referendumsergebnis verbindlich oder konsultiv); Freiheitsgrad des Freedom House im Land zu drei Zeitpunkten (Wahljahr, ein Jahr vor der Wahl und zwei Jahre vor der Wahl); Bewertung der Demokratie-Autokratie-Politik IV; Gini-Koeffizient des verfügbaren Einkommens im Jahr der Wahl; BIP-Wachstum (in Prozent pro Jahr - Weltbank); BIP pro Kopf; Inflation, BIP-Deflator (in Prozent pro Jahr); Verschuldung der Zentralregierung, insgesamt (in Prozent BIP); Human development index; Gesamtbevölkerung; Arbeitslosenquote (in Prozent der gesamten Erwerbsbevölkerung); Arbeitslosenquote für Personen im Alter von 15-24 Jahren (in Prozent der gesamten Erwerbsbevölkerung); Land unterliegt bei Wahlen der Konditionalität des Internationalen Währungsfonds; Transparency International Index für die Wahrnehmung der Korruption; Index für die Kontrolle der Korruption; Beurteilung des öffentlichen Sektors durch Experten: Unternehmen, die den Beamten die vorteilhaftesten Bestechungsgelder bieten; Angestellte des öffentlichen Dienstes und wie sie die Gesellschaft behandeln; Häufigkeit, mit der Angestellte des öffentlichen Dienstes Fälle unparteiisch behandeln und nach Einhaltung der Regeln streben; Nettomigrationsrate (2000-2005, 2005-2010, 2010-2015, 2015-2020); Bevölkerung nach Staatsangehörigkeit: Prozentsatz der Bevölkerung, die Bürger, Ausländer oder unbekannter Staatsangehörigkeitsstatus sind; sprachlicher Fraktionierungsindex; religiöser Fraktionierungsindex, ethnischer Fraktionierungsindex; Fragmentierungsindex des Gemeinwesens; Prozentsatz der Personen, die das Internet nutzen; Mobilfunkabonnements pro 100 Einwohner; feste Telefonleitungen pro 100 Einwohner; Parteiidentifikationscodes aus dem Manifesto Research on Political Representation Project (MARPOR/CMP); Parteiidentifikationscodes aus dem Parliament and Government Database (ParlGov) project.
Die Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (CSES) ist eine weltweite Kooperation von Wahlforschern. Teilnehmende Länder implementieren einen einheitlichen Fragenkomplex in ihre Nachwahlstudien. Die erhoben Daten umfassen das individuelle Wahlverhalten, politische Einstellungen und sozio-demographische Merkmale sowie Angaben zu den Wahlbezirken, den nationalen Wahlergebnissen und dem nationalen politischen System. Die einzelnen Länderstudien werden in einen gemeinsamen Datensatz integriert und stehen der Wissenschaft für vergleichende und länderübergreifende Untersuchungen frei zur Verfügung.
Das CSES-Projekt konzentriert sich auf das Verhalten und die Einstellungen von Befragten während einer nationalen Wahl, wobei der Schwerpunkt auf Abstimmung und Wahlbeteiligung liegt. Jedes CSES-Modul besteht aus einer national-repräsentativen Umfrage nach den Wahlen und zusätzlichen Variablen über den Kontext des Landes und des Wahlsystems, in dem sich die Befragten befinden. Alle fünf Jahre wird ein neues CSES-Modul mit einem anderen inhaltlichen Thema entwickelt, das für die Behandlung wesentlicher Fragen der Wahl- und Sozialwissenschaften ausgewählt wurde.
CSES Modul 5 konzentriert sich auf die Untersuchung der so genannten ´populistischen Einstellungen´ in der Bevölkerung und wie sie das Wahlverhalten beeinflussen. Es konzentriert sich auf die Messung von drei Kernthemen: Einstellungen gegenüber politischen Eliten, Einstellungen gegenüber repräsentativer Demokratie und Mehrheitsregierung sowie Einstellungen gegenüber Außengruppen.
Weitere Informationen zum Thema des Moduls 5 finden Sie in der theoretischen Erklärung zum CSES-Modul 5, die auf der CSES-Website verfügbar ist.
Themen:
DATEN AUF MIKROEBENE:
Identifizierungs- und Studienadministrationsvariablen: Gewichtungsfaktoren; Art der Wahl; Datum der Wahl der ersten und zweiten Runde; Zeitpunkt der Studie (Nachwahlstudie, Vor- und Nachwahlstudie, zwischen den Runden der Mehrheitswahl); Studienkontext (CSES als Teil einer größeren Studie oder als eigenständige Studie durchgeführt); Art des Interviews; Selbstauswahl Interviewmodus; Dauer des Interviews; Interviewer-ID; Geschlecht des Interviewers; Anzahl der Tage nach der Wahl für den Beginn der Datenerhebung; Dauer der Feldarbeit; Datum des Fragebogens; Anzahl der Tage, an denen das Interview nach der ersten und zweiten Wahlrunde durchgeführt wurde; Sprache der Fragebogenadministration; Fragebogenversion.
Demographie: Geburtsjahr und -monat; Geschlecht; Bildung; Familienstand; Gewerkschaftszugehörigkeit; aktueller Erwerbsstatus; Hauptberuf; sozioökonomischer Status; Beschäftigungsart - öffentlich oder privat; Haushaltseinkommen; Anzahl der Personen im Haushalt; Kirchgangshäufigkeit; Konfession; Sprache, die üblicherweise zu Hause gesprochen wird; Wohnregion; Rasse; ethnische Zugehörigkeit; ländlicher oder städtischer Wohnsitz; Hauptwahlkreis; Geburtsland; Migrationshintergrund.
Umfragevariablen: politisches Interesse; Interesse an der Politik in den Medien; innere Wirksamkeit; Einstellung zu politischen Eliten; Einstellung zu Außengruppen (Minderheiten sollten sich den Bräuchen und Traditionen des Landes anpassen, der Wille der Mehrheit sollte immer vorherrschen, Einwanderer sind im Allgemeinen gut für die Wirtschaft des Landes, die Kultur des Landes wird generell von Einwanderern geschädigt, Einwanderer erhöhen die Kriminalitätsrate); Kriterien für nationale Identität (z.B. im Land geboren, Abstammung, Landessprachen sprechen können, Bräuche und Traditionen des Landes befolgen); Verbreitung von Korruption; Regierungsmaßnahmen: Forderung nach Regierungsmaßnahmen zum Abbau von Einkommensunterschieden; Einstellung gegenüber Umverteilung; Bewertung der Leistung der Regierung im Allgemeinen; Parteien, die die Ansichten des Befragten vertreten; Partei, die die Ansichten des Befragten am besten vertritt; Zustand der Wirtschaft; Befragte hat bei der aktuellen und der vorherigen Wahl eine Stimme abgegeben; Wahl (Präsidentschafts-, Unterhaus- und Oberhauswahlen) bei der aktuellen und der vorherigen Wahl; Befragte hat bei der aktuellen Wahl eine Vorzugsentscheidung abgegeben; Stimmenwahl für die scheidende Regierung bei der aktuellen Hauptwahl; Unterschied, wer an der Macht ist und für wen die Menschen stimmen; Sympathie-Skala für ausgewählte Parteien und politische Führer; Bewertung von Parteien auf einer Links-Rechts-Skala und einer optionalen alternativen Skala; Selbsteinschätzung auf der Links-Rechts-Skala und einer optionalen alternativen Skala; Demokratiezufriedenheit; Nähe zu einer politischen Partei; Parteiidentifikation; Partei, der sich der Befragte am nächsten fühlt; Intensität der Parteiidentifikation.
DATEN AUF BEZIRKSEBENE:
Anzahl der im Wahlkreis/ bundesweiten Wahlkreis umkämpften Sitze; Anzahl der Kandidaten (Bezirk/ bundesweiter Wahlkreis); Anzahl der Parteienlisten (Bezirk/ bundesweiter Wahlkreis); Prozentsatz der Stimmen verschiedener Parteien (Wahlkreis/ bundesweiter Wahlkreis); offizielle Wahlbeteiligung im Wahlkreis/ bundesweiter Wahlkreis.
DATEN AUF MAKROEBENE:
Wähleranteil oder Bevölkerung im Wahlkreis / bundesweiten Wahlkreis; Wahlergebnisse der Parteien bei der aktuellen Parlamentswahl (Unterhaus/Oberhaus); Prozentsatz der Sitze im Unterhaus bei den Parteien bei der aktuellen Unterhauswahl/Oberhauswahl; Prozentsatz der Sitze im Oberhaus bei den Parteien bei der aktuellen Unterhauswahl/Oberhauswahl; Prozentsatz der Stimmen bei den Präsidentschaftskandidaten der Parteien bei den laufenden Wahlen; Wahlbeteiligung (in Prozent der registrierten Wähler/des Wahlalters der Bevölkerung); Wahlmanagement: Wahlverwaltungsmodell (unabhängiges Organ, Regierung, gemischt); obligatorische Wählerregistrierung; Art der Stimmabgabe; Partei des Präsidenten und des Premierministers vor und nach der Wahl; Anzahl der von jeder Partei im Kabinett gehaltenen Portfolios, vor und nach der letzten Wahl; Größe des Kabinetts nach der letzten Wahl; ideologische Parteifamilien; von Experten zugewiesene Links-rechts-Position der Parteien und alternative Dimensionen; Populismus nach Parteien; Populismus-Skala der Parteien; die wichtigsten Faktoren bei der Wahl; Fairness der Wahl; formelle Beschwerden über Ergebnisse auf nationaler Ebene; gemeldete Wahlunregelmäßigkeiten; geplantes und durchgeführtes Wahldatum; Unregelmäßigkeiten des Wahltermins; Ausmaß der Gewalt bei der Wahl und nach den Wahlen; geografische Konzentration der Gewalt; Protest nach den Wahlen; während des Wahlkampfes zulässige Wahlbündnisse; Wahlbündnisse in der Praxis; Bildung von Wahlbündnissen; Anforderungen an gemeinsame Parteienlisten; Möglichkeit der Anerkennung und Art der Anerkennungsvereinbarung; mehrheitliche Befürwortung der Abstimmung; abgegebene Stimmen; Abstimmungsverfahren; Abstimmungsrunden; Parteienlisten geschlossen, offen oder flexibel; übertragbare Stimmen; kumulierte Stimmen, wenn mehr als eine Stimme abgegeben werden kann; Pflichtabstimmung; Parteienschwelle; Einheit für die Schwelle; Freedom House Rating; Alter des derzeitigen Systems; Regime: Art der Exekutive; Anzahl der Monate seit der letzten Unterhauswahl und den letzten Präsidentschaftswahlen; Wahlformel für Präsidentschaftswahlen; Wahlformel in allen Wahlstufen (mehrheitlich, proportional oder gemischt); für Unter- und Oberhäuser wurde kodiert: Anzahl der Wahlsegmente; vernetzte Wahlsegmente; abhängige Formeln in gemischten Systemen; Subtypen der gemischten Wahlsysteme; Bezirksgröße (Anzahl der aus jedem Bezirk gewählten Mitglieder); Anzahl der sekundären und tertiären Wahlkreise; Anzahl der Sitze über dem ersten Segment (Unterhaus); fusionierte Abstimmung; Größe des Unterhauses; verfassungsmäßige föderale Struktur; Anzahl der Parlamentskammern; Anteil der Frauen im Parlament; Parteienfinanzierung: direkte oder indirekte öffentliche Finanzierung; Anzahl der an den Wahlen teilnehmenden Parteien; effektive Anzahl der Wahlparteien und Parlamentsfraktionen; direkte Demokratie (Referendum obligatorisch, optional, durch Bürgerinitiative, Referendumsergebnis verbindlich oder konsultiv); Freiheitsgrad des Freedom House im Land zu drei Zeitpunkten (Wahljahr, ein Jahr vor der Wahl und zwei Jahre vor der Wahl); Bewertung der Demokratie-Autokratie-Politik IV; Gini-Koeffizient des verfügbaren Einkommens im Jahr der Wahl; BIP-Wachstum (in Prozent pro Jahr - Weltbank); BIP pro Kopf; Inflation, BIP-Deflator (in Prozent pro Jahr); Verschuldung der Zentralregierung, insgesamt (in Prozent BIP); Human development index; Gesamtbevölkerung; Arbeitslosenquote (in Prozent der gesamten Erwerbsbevölkerung); Arbeitslosenquote für Personen im Alter von 15-24 Jahren (in Prozent der gesamten Erwerbsbevölkerung); Land unterliegt bei Wahlen der Konditionalität des Internationalen Währungsfonds; Transparency International Index für die Wahrnehmung der Korruption; Index für die Kontrolle der Korruption; Beurteilung des öffentlichen Sektors durch Experten: Unternehmen, die den Beamten die vorteilhaftesten Bestechungsgelder bieten; Angestellte des öffentlichen Dienstes und wie sie die Gesellschaft behandeln; Häufigkeit, mit der Angestellte des öffentlichen Dienstes Fälle unparteiisch behandeln und nach Einhaltung der Regeln streben; Nettomigrationsrate (2000-2005, 2005-2010, 2010-2015, 2015-2020); Bevölkerung nach Staatsangehörigkeit: Prozentsatz der Bevölkerung, die Bürger, Ausländer oder unbekannter Staatsangehörigkeitsstatus sind; sprachlicher Fraktionierungsindex; religiöser Fraktionierungsindex, ethnischer Fraktionierungsindex; Fragmentierungsindex des Gemeinwesens; Prozentsatz der Personen, die das Internet nutzen; Mobilfunkabonnements pro 100 Einwohner; feste Telefonleitungen pro 100 Einwohner; Parteiidentifikationscodes aus dem Manifesto Research on Political Representation Project (MARPOR/CMP); Parteiidentifikationscodes aus dem Parliament and Government Database (ParlGov) project.
In this paper, the authors examine the political economy drivers of the variation in agricultural protection, both across countries and within countries over time. The paper starts by listing the key insights provided by both the theoretical and empirical literature on the political economy of trade policy formulation. The authors then set out a basic framework that allows us to put forth various testable hypotheses on the variation and evolution of agricultural protection. The authors find that both the political ideology of the government and the degree of income inequality are important determinants of agricultural protection. Thus, both the political-support-function approach as well as the median-voter approach can be used in explaining the variation in agricultural protection across countries and within countries over time. The results are consistent with the predictions of a model that assumes that labor is specialized and sector-specific in nature. Some aspects of protection also seem to be consistent with predictions of a lobbying model in that agricultural protection is negatively related to agricultural employment and positively related to agricultural productivity. Public finance aspects of protection also seem to be empirically important.
Основной целью научного исследования является выявление особенностей привлечения представителя к ответственности и основаниях ее возникновения. Предметом научного исследования является нормы права, регламентирующие ответственность субъектов по посредническим договорам и практика их применения. Автором проанализированы основания и формы гражданско-правовой ответственности субъектов по посредническим договорам. Научная новизна работы определяется тем, что на основе анализа действующего гражданского законодательства, выявлены основания и формы гражданско-правовой ответственности лица, действующего в чужом интересе. Актуальность темы исследования в настоящее время обусловлена рядом факторов социально-экономического, правоприменительного, нормативно-правового и доктринального порядка. Общее развитие цивилистики и расширение сферы деятельности гражданско-правового регулирования общественных отношений в сфере представительства предопределило необходимость исследования оснований привлечения представителя к ответственности и ее формы. Методологическую основу исследования составили общенаучные и частно-научные методы познания. Общенаучные диалектические методы познания включали принципы объективности, системности, историзма, индукции, дедукции и др. К частно-научным методам познания относились: формально-юридический, описательный, лингвистический, формально-логический, системно-правовой, сравнительно-правовой и другие. Выводы: автор приходит к выводу, что морской брокер, являясь коммерческим представителем, имеет право на получение возмещения понесенных при исполнении им поручения издержки, а также вознаграждение соразмерно выполненной им работе. В то же время он имеет право использовать такой способ обеспечения исполнения обязательства, как удержание, наравне с другими лицами, действующими в чужом интересе. Поверенный, действующий на основании договора поручения, в случае отсутствия в договоре его ответственность за неисполнение либо ненадлежащее исполнение своих обязанностей, обязан возвратить доверителю неосновательно сбереженное и возвратить или возместить ему все доходы, которые он извлек или должен был извлечь из этого имущества. В случае неисполнения страховым брокером своей обязанности не разглашать коммерческую тайну страховщика, предоставляет право страховщику требовать компенсации морального вреда. Автор также считает, что управляющий либо управляющая компания, действующие на основании договора о передаче полномочий исполнительного органа, привлекаются к ответственности за убытки, причиненные по их вине юридическому лицу. Результаты исследования могут быть использованы в дальнейшем в качестве основы для дальнейших разработок проблематики данного института права, а также могут быть применены в учебном процессе по дисциплинам «Гражданское право» и «Российское предпринимательское право», при подготовке учебников и учебных пособий по гражданскому праву и предпринимательскому праву. Кроме того, результат исследования может быть использован в качестве пособия для практикующего юриста, руководителя и главного бухгалтера ; Main objective of scientific research is detection of features of involvement of the representative to responsibility and the bases of its emergence. A subject of scientific research is the rules of law regulating responsibility of subjects under intermediary contracts and the practician of their application. The author analysed the bases and forms of civil responsibility of subjects under intermediary contracts. Scientific novelty of work is defined by that on the basis of the analysis of the acting civil legislation, the bases and forms of civil responsibility of the person acting in others interest are revealed. Relevance of a subject of research is caused by a number of factors of a social and economic, law-enforcement, standard and legal and doctrinal order now. The general development of civil law and expansion of a field of activity of civil regulation of the public relations in the sphere of representation predetermined need of research of the bases of involvement of the representative to responsibility and its forms. The methodological basis of research was made by general scientific and chastnonauchny methods of knowledge. General scientific dialectic methods of knowledge included the principles of objectivity, systemacity, historicism, induction, deduction, etc. Treated chastnonauchny methods of knowledge: legallistic, descriptive, linguistic, formal and logical, system and legal, comparative and legal and others. Conclusions: the author comes to a conclusion that the sea broker, being the commercial representative, has the right to compensation suffered at execution of an expenses assignment by it, and also remuneration is proportional to the work performed by it. At the same time he has the right to use such way of ensuring execution of the obligation as deduction, on an equal basis with other persons acting in others interest. The attorney acting under the contract of an assignment in case of absence in the contract its responsibility for non-execution or inadequate execution of the duties, is obliged to return to the principal superficially sberezhenny and to return or compensate to it all income which he took or had to take from this property. In case of non-execution by the insurance broker of the duty not to disclose a trade secret of the insurer, grants the right to the insurer to demand compensation of moral harm. The author also considers that the managing director or the management company acting under the contract on delegation of power of executive body are brought to liability for damages, caused on their fault to the legal entity. Results of research can be used further as a basis for further development of a perspective of this institute of the right, and also "Civil law" and "The Russian enterprise law" can be applied in educational process on disciplines, by preparation of textbooks and manuals on civil law and the enterprise right. Besides, the result of research can be used as a grant for the practicing lawyer, the head and the chief accountant
The current work is devoted to estimating the term structure of interest rates based on a generalized optimization framework. To x the ideas of the subject, we introduce representations of the term structure as they are used in nance: yield curve, discount curve and forward rate curve. Yield curves are used in empirical research in nance and macroeconomic to support nancial decisions made by governments and/or private nancial institutions. When governments (or nancial corporations) need fundings, they issue to the public (i.e. the market) debt securities (bills, bonds, notes, etc ) which are sold at the discount rate at the settlement date and promise the face value of the security at the redemption date, known as maturity date. Bills, notes and bonds are usually sold with maximum maturity of 1 year, 10 years and 30 years respectively. Let us assume that the government issues to the market zero-coupon bonds, which provide a single payment at maturity of each bond. To determine the price of the security at time of settlement, a single discount factor is used. Thus, the yield can be dened as the discount rate which makes the present value of the security issued (the zero-coupon bond) equal to its initial price. The yield curve describes the relationship between a particular yield and a bond's maturity. In general, given a certain number of bonds with dierent time to maturity, the yield curve will describe the one-to-one relationship between the bond yields and their corresponding time to maturity. For a realistic yield curve, it is important to use only bonds from the same class of issuer or securities having the same degree of liquidity when plotting the yields. Discount factors, used to price bonds, are functions of the time to maturity. Given that yields are positive, these functions are assumed to be monotonically decreasing as the time to maturity increases. Thus, a discount curve is simply the graph of discount factors for dierent maturities associated with dierent securities. Another useful curve uses the forward rate function which can be deduced from both the discount factor and the yield function. The forward rate is the rate of return for an investment that is agreed upon today but which starts at some time in the future and provides payment at some time in the future as well. When forward rates are used, the resulting curve is referred to as the forward rate curve. Thus, any of these curves, that is, the yield curve, the discount curve or the forward rate curve, can be used to represent what is known as the term structure of interest rate. The shapes that the term structure of interest rates can assume include upward sloping, downward sloping, atness or humped, depending on the state of the economy. When the expectations of market participants are incorporated in the construction of these curves representing the term structure, their shapes capture and summarize the cost of credit and risks associated with every security traded. However, constructing these curves and the choice of an appropriate representation of the term structure to use is not a straightforward task. This is due to the complexity of the market data, precisely, the scarcity of zero-coupon bonds which constitutes the backbone of the term structure. The market often provides coupons alongside market security prices for a small number of maturities. This implies that, for the entire maturity spectrum, yields can not be observed on the market. Based on available market data, yields must be estimated using traditional interpolation methods. To this end, polynomial splines as well as parsimonious functions are the methods mostly used by nancial institutions and in research in nance. However, it is observed in literature that these methods suer from the shape constraints which cause them to produce yield curves that are not realistic with respect to the market observations. Precisely, the yield curves produced by these methods are characterized by unrealistic t of the market data, either in the short end or in the long end of the term structure of interest rate. To ll the gap, the current research models the yield curve using a generalized optimization framework. The method is not shape constrained, which implies that it can adapt to any shape the yield curve can take across the entire maturity spectrum. While estimating the yield curve using this method in comparison with traditional methods on the Swedish and US markets, it is shown that any other traditional method used is a special case of the generalized optimization framework. Moreover, it is shown that, for a certain market consistency, the method produces lower variances than any of the traditional methods tested. This implies that the method produces forward rate curve of higher quality compared to the existing traditional methods. Interest rate derivatives are instruments whose prices depend or are derived from the price of other instruments. Derivatives instruments that are extensively used include the forward rate agreement (FRA) contracts where forward rate is used and the interest rate swap (IRS) where LIBOR rate is used as oating rate. These instruments will only be used to build up the term structure of interest rates. Since the liquidity crisis in 2007, it is observed that discrepancies in basis spread between interest rates applied to dierent interest rate derivatives have grown so large that a single discount curve is no longer appropriate to use for pricing securities consistently. It has been suggested that the market needs new methods for multiple yield curves estimation to price securities consistently with the market. As a response, the generalized optimization framework is extended to a multiple yield curves estimation. We show that, unlike the cubic spline for instance, which is among the mostly used traditional method, the generalized framework can produce multiple yield curves and tenor premium curves that are altogether smooth and realistic with respect to the market observations. U.S. Treasury market is, by size and importance, a leading market which is considered as benchmark for most xed-income securities that are traded worldwide. However, existing U.S. Treasury yield curves that are used in the market are of poor quality since they have been estimated by traditional interpolation methods which are shape constrained. This implies that the market prices they imply contain lots of noise and as such, are not safe to use. In this work, we use the generalized optimization framework to estimate high-quality forward rates for the U.S. Treasury yield curve. Using ecient frontiers, we show that the method can produce low pricing error with low variance as compared to the least squares methods that have been used to estimate U.S. Treasury yield curves. We nally use the high-quality U.S. Treasury forward rate curve estimated by the generalized optimization framework as input to the essentially ane model to capture the randomness property in interest rates and the time-varying term premium. This premium is simply a compensation that is required for additional risks that investors are exposed to. To determine optimal investment in the U.S. Treasury market, a two-stage stochastic programming model without recourse is proposed, which model borrowing, shorting and proportional transaction cost. It is found that the proposed model can provide growth of wealth in the long run. Moreover, its Sharpe ratio is better than the market index and its Jensen's alpha is positive. This implies that the Stochastic Programming model proposed can produce portfolios that perform better than the market index.
La tesis analiza el sistema fiscal español entre los años 1960 y 1990, con especial atención a los aspectos de progresividad y redistribución, y a la evolución de la desigualdad en el periodo. Se estudian las reformas impositivas que tuvieron lugar durante la transición a la democracia, realizando una evaluación cuantitativa de sus efectos. Debido a la larga dictadura sufrida por el país entre 1936/39 y 1976, España mantuvo durante casi todo el siglo XX las formas fiscales tradicionales del sistema liberal decimonónico: los impuestos eran bajos, regresivos e ineficientes, y las raíces del estado del bienestar se mantuvieron subdesarrolladas. Con el retorno de la democracia, pronto se impulsó una reforma con los objetivos de hacer el sistema progresivo, eficiente y capaz de generar mayor recaudación, cuyas novedades principales fueron la introducción del impuesto sobre la renta (1979) y del IVA (1986). Pero durante las siguientes décadas, las cotizaciones sociales siguieron siendo la fuente principal de ingresos públicos, y la alta evasión fiscal se mantuvo como uno de los grandes problemas no resueltos. ¿Cuál fue el efecto neto de todo ello? La mayoría de la tesis es de carácter empírico, basándose en datos de Encuestas de Presupuestos Familiares y estadísticas de recaudación fiscal, que reciben un tratamiento crítico. Se realizan diversas propuestas metodológicas, para el ajuste por infra-declaración de los datos de encuesta y la estimación del fraude en base a declaraciones fiscales. Los resultados principales son una considerable persistencia en los niveles de desigualdad, el mantenimiento de la regresividad del sistema impositivo, y el fuerte impacto negativo del fraude en el impuesto sobre la renta. Los niveles de redistribución total del sistema de impuestos y transferencias alcanzados en España durante el periodo no alcanzaron la convergencia con los de otros países occidentales. Se concluye que las demandas de imposición progresiva se vieron constreñidas tanto por las instituciones políticas nacionales como por un nuevo contexto internacional, donde la combinación de bajo crecimiento, apertura económica y teoría neo-liberal hizo los impuestos progresivos más difíciles de defender e implementar. Ello, a su vez, limitó la capacidad redistributiva del presupuesto. ; This thesis analyses the Spanish tax system between 1960 and 1990, with special attention to the developments in progressivity, redistribution and inequality. It addresses the reforms that took place during the transition to democracy, providing a quantitative joint assessment which was missing in the literature. Because of the long dictatorship suffered by the country between 1936/39 and 1976, Spain was a laggard in abandoning the traditional liberal forms of taxation in favour of 20th century tax ideas. Taxes were low, regressive and inefficient during these decades, and the welfare state seeds were kept underdeveloped. During the sixties, public finance scholars envisaged the introduction of the 'European' model, but such a reform could not make it through under Francoism. As democracy returned, the new government soon passed several tax measures which meant to make the system progressive, efficient and able to raise higher revenue. This would bring the country into convergence with its European neighbours, allowing integration in the European Economic Community and the development of a modern welfare state. The main milestones were the introduction of a personal income tax (1979) and a value added tax (1986). But, during the following decades, social contributions kept being the single most important public revenue source, and high tax evasion persisted as one of the main unresolved problems signalled by experts. These elements sustain the initial hypothesis of a proportional or still regressive tax system after the reforms — which would contradict simple political economy models in the literature, were democratization redistributes political and economic power. Our guiding research questions thus are: Did the tax system become (more) progressive? Did it reduce income inequality in the country? And what was the evolution of tax evasion and its incidence on different income levels? The empirical work is mainly based on Household Budget Surveys, tax revenue data and statistics of tax burden distribution, which are critically treated and adjusted. Methodological innovations include a proposal for correction of biases in household survey data and an addition to Feldman and Slemrod (2007)'s method for estimating fraud in different income sources, by introducing a correction for sample selection. The calculations of the distribution of the tax burden underline the joint consideration of total taxation, including consumption taxes, which are often neglected in related work. The main results of the thesis are a considerable persistence in inequality levels (contrary to theoretical expectations and the conclusions of previous literature), the negative impact of taxation on the income distribution still after the reforms (while funding progressive social expenditure), and the severe and regressive incidence of tax evasion and base voidening in the personal income tax. The levels of tax-and-transfer redistribution attained in Spain throughout this period did not converge to those of other western countries. The author's interpretation concludes that demands for progressive taxation were constrained by both domestic political institutions –with a bias for representation of center-right interests–, and a new international political economy. The combination of sluggish growth, economic openness and neo-liberal theory made progressive taxes harder to defend and implement. This, in turn, limited the state's redistributive capacity. To some extent, this story might also fit other countries in the European periphery, adding a new category to the international discussion on regressive taxation and welfare state development. Welfare state laggards initially resorted to similar strategies to those used earlier by the leaders. But lower revenue from personal taxes, higher levels of inequality, and slow growth impeded the establishment of highly redistributive tax-and-transfer systems.
Brazil grew 2.4 percent per year on average in the last 25 years-somewhat less than Latin America, a good deal less than the world, far less than the emerging countries of Asia in the same period, and indeed far less than Brazil itself in previous decades. If anything stands out favorably in recent Brazilian experience, it is not growth but stabilization and the successful opening of the economy. The purpose of this paper is more modest. It is limited to setting out the authors' particular view of recent efforts to consolidate democracy in Brazil while controlling inflation and resuming economic growth. At the same time the paper presents, as objectively as possible, some thoughts on the limits but also the relevance of action by political leaders to set a course and circumvent obstacles to that process. Here and there, the paper refers to the experiences of other Latin American countries, especially Argentina, Chile, and Mexico, not to offer a full fledged comparative analysis but merely to note contrasts and similarities that may shed light on the peculiarities of the Brazilian case and suggest themes for a more wide-ranging exchange of views.
Having reached the mark of 2,118 delegates, Barack Obama has gone from candidate in the closest head-to-head primary ever to presumptive nominee. Appropriately, he will accept the nomination at the August convention in Denver, on the 45th anniversary of Martin Luther King's "I have a dream" speech. This is political history in the making: he is the first African-American to be the head of the presidential ticket of a major party. After years of angst and self doubt, there is a renewed optimism on the street, and a whole new group of voters has been mobilized. However, Obama, who has run on a message of hope and change, faces an extremely difficult path ahead. His vulnerabilities have become apparent in the succession of events over the last few weeks of this long primary season.He lost nine of the last fourteen primaries, including South Dakota, where he was favored (55% to 45%), and Puerto Rico (68% to 42%); he has had to cut ties with his Church due to its radicalism and anti-establishment stance, and, one day after Obama claimed the nomination, one of his top fund-raisers was found guilty of wire fraud and money laundering in a federal court in Chicago. Now his campaign will have to overcome this dry patch and move forward to the greater challenge, that of defeating McCain. His next task at hand is to choose a vice-president, and this, too, poses a serious dilemma.In the first place, Hillary Rodham-Clinton took five days to acknowledge defeat, giving cause for some speculation that she is pressing for the vice-presidential spot with the implied threat that she will continue fighting all the way to the convention. She has the right to do so, if we consider the fact that she has won all of the big states and probably a larger number of the popular vote (around 18 million). And, as she not so humbly claims, she is the more experienced candidate who could better stand up to McCain. On the other hand, there is great concern that Barack's image as the unconventional, charismatic, post-modern Washington outsider will be damaged if he chooses her. So the decision will require reflection, pondering and a lot of vetting interviews of alternative candidates.Much ink will be spent in speculating why Hillary lost the primary. Here, I will just offer a few reflections, leaving the second guessing of the way her campaign was run to those who will manically analyze every decision taken, every tactic used, every gesture, every word, and will have their eureka moments when finding the flaw, the error, the underestimation that brought her down. And yet, quite often fate, luck and other imponderables irrevocably determine the outcome of a narrow race, regardless of the brilliant strategies of the campaign managers, advisers and other experts. It has already been said that Rodham Clinton started her campaign as the inevitable candidate, as the incumbent, and that her sense of entitlement turned many voters away. At the same time, her main message was one of change, of moving forward, of undoing the Bush legacy, but Obama co-opted that message, and he was much more convincing as an agent of change. Hillary began her campaign running not as a woman, but as the most hardened and experienced, candidate that would deliver both peace and prosperity to all Americans. Obama ran from the beginning as the post-racial candidate and this theme remained constant throughout his campaign. She was trying to woo independents and disaffected Republicans and had thus to prove that she was as tough as John McCain. Obama had no intention of treading down that path, which he derided as part of the Washington game. Instead, he stuck fearlessly to his convictions. It was this independent streak, his absolute confidence in the soundness of his cool, post-modern world vision that was irresistible to the young voters. This should not obfuscate the fact that both ran historic campaigns and have unremittingly shattered the barriers of gender and race in American politics at the highest level. Still, the promise of change was more credible when pledged by the young unknown than by the seasoned insider. With no substantial philosophical differences between the two, the richer contrast was all inspiration and charisma versus politics as usual.First of all, we need to consider a fundamental fact: even if the media and their respective campaigns have played up the differences between the two candidates, their basic policy choices and ideologies are one and the same. From health care to fiscal policy, from education to foreign policy, there may be some minimal disagreements but they both share the basic ideology of more equitable economic distribution, protection of civil rights and overall tolerance toward others that typify Democrats in the United States. Some observers may bring up Hillary's vote in favor of the Iraqi invasion of 2003 as evidence of an important disagreement, and also a cause of her loss of popularity in the early stages of the campaign. That certainly did her harm, which is ironic because, in academic and political circles alike, few believe it represents her real conviction. As a Senator for New York and a future presidential candidate, she carefully chose to vote in favor of a war that, in October 2002, had a high rate of approval among the population, who had clearly bought the Republican idea that the invasion "over there" would make us safer "over here". At the time, she hedged that gamble against the fact that "there was enough evidence" Saddam was piling up WMDs, which had little to do with 9-11 and Al Qaeda. But a scared populace is an easy target for deception and false reassurances. Intent on proving her masculine toughness on security issues, she fell into the Republican trap. Five years down the road, this carefully measured decision came back to haunt her, and the controversy over that vote generated an enormous surge of support for Obama that might have created the momentum that helped him win the early contests, namely, the Iowa caucuses and the wins of February 5th. This momentum, coupled with the televised debates, proved he was a worthy, viable candidate; it brought the media to his side and attracted new voters. He irradiated a cool self-assurance, a subdued charm, an understated intelligence that was indeed enchanting to young voters, to black voters and to hard core Democrats tired of the vitriol of Washington. The country, it seemed, was ready for Obama. His timing was impeccable and had the effect of making Rodham-Clinton look tired, strident and blasé. The media had found its golden boy and started treating Hillary as the intruder, who would do anything to prevent a new Camelot.After his initial sweep, Hillary slowly started to recover and as the campaign progressed, her message became more focused and she found her voice. She switched strategies and, from being the more experienced candidate that would deliver peace and prosperity to all Americans, she turned back to her traditional constituencies, namely, women and blue-collar workers. Speaking to her strengths, namely, her devotion to public service and her familiarity with the intricacies of policy-making, she became a great communicator that invariably connected with her audiences. And she started winning again.Even those that dislike her have to acknowledge her skills as a campaigner, her endurance and poise under tremendous pressure and, more importantly, her dramatic recovery of the popular vote towards the end of the campaign, which made her claim to bring this battle to the convention quite legitimate. Her wins in Pennsylvania, Ohio and West Virginia, as well as her immense support in the Hispanic community as shown by the Puerto Rican vote, cannot be discounted by the party when it looks ahead to the national election in November.One should bear in mind that these primaries were the closest contest in primary history, and in spite of having the whole media establishment against her from the beginning, Hillary did not at any time show signs of faltering or self-doubt and never allowed herself to make the road easier for Obama. She stayed on message, speaking to the issues, proving she was ready to become the first woman president. Both her competency and her warmth gained her a huge following. But once she lost the media she also started losing the super-delegates from inside the party. One after the other, the big names in the party started lining up behind Obama: Tom Daschle, Ted and Caroline Kennedy, Christopher Dodd, Bill Richardson, and towards the end, even John Edwards.This took many by surprise, and is related to another phenomenon that very few had perceived before: the animosity that the Clintons, especially Bill, provoke from within the party itself. Although Bill and Hillary are the most powerful brand name in the Democratic Party, there is a surprising amount of anger against them that had remained latent till now. Bill Clinton's harsh remarks in South Carolina primary astonished many and may have hurt her campaign, reinforcing the perception that the Clintons would do anything, even play the race card, in order to win the White House.Then there was the question of demographics and identity politics. Although Rodham-Clinton attempted to run as the candidate for all, after the first losses and as she increasingly won the vote of women and blue collar workers, she turned to her natural constituencies. She started running as a woman and as the champion of the working class. In her new more populist persona, she also won among Jews, Catholics and rural workers. Obama did best among college educated youth, intellectuals and black voters. In other words, they both win the identity vote. Identity has come up often during the campaign, and not in a positive way. Irate at the way the media were treating Hillary and indulging Obama especially in interviews (there was even a sketch in Saturday Night Live that parodied this noticeable difference), Geraldine Ferraro accused the media of sexism and went as far as saying that Obama would not be treated with so much deference if he was a white man. After disproportionate outcry by the media and the public, Clinton had to fire Ferraro as her advisor. Thus, bringing up sexism completely backfired for Hillary.The irony once again, is that Identity Politics is most likely the prism through which both Hillary and Obama, see America: as a society divided by categories of class, gender, race, ethnicity and sexual preference. His as well as her policies are informed by this view. But Obama skillfully downplays it and tries to portray himself as the candidate for all Americans who want change and are tired of Washington politics. He does not deny that race and gender play a role in politics but prefers not to bring it up since it is "not productive". His strategy has paid off so far, but this topic will certainly be revisited in the national election. Due to his background and life experience, McCain has a very different view based on patriotism and service to the country, on individual responsibility and a common civic culture. He will find a way to turn the notion of Identity Politics against Obama, who, in spite of his unifying message, often speaks about redressing balances and ending injustice.Finally, the closeness of the race and the resilience of these two formidable candidates were again in display towards its end, and led to a new critical stage. The momentum that had carried Obama through the early and middle stages started to weaken. As time went by, more scrutiny brought up the issue of his membership in a radical Black Liberation Theology Church, the (inane) fact that he did not wear a US flag pin on his lapel (a symbol of patriotism that became particularly important after 9-11, when even academics came under no small degree of peer pressure to wear one), and this past week, the conviction by a Chicago federal jury of former fund-raiser and friend, Antoin Retzko.As momentum weakened, and as Clinton seemed to resurrect and come closer to Obama in the delegate count, party rules regarding delegate selection became more important . Because in most primaries there has been an early front-runner, and because the last primary contest that had to be taken all the way to the convention without a presumptive nominee was in 1976, very few party leaders and even fewer journalists are aware of the rules. As they began to play out, we were all submitted to a crash course on these intra-party rules. The Democratic Party has a centralized structure, so all states play by the same rules, and its selection system is based on proportional representation, the most democratic form of representation: within each state, any candidate that reaches a threshold of 15% of votes is allocated delegates proportionally to the vote. This, while it is better for representation, tends to prolong the race and make it closer. While Clinton was recovering and making important gains, Obama still continued to pick up a few delegates here and there, and the media kept its constant drum roll in his favor. Super-delegates were swayed to his side, irrevocably. In contrast, Republicans have a decentralized structure so that each state establishes its own rules, and most choose a winner-take-all selection system. This system, while less democratic and representative, enabled them to have a clear winner by March, with all the advantages that that entails.This year a very peculiar situation arose out of Michigan and Florida, where the state governments scheduled the primaries too early, in breach of the Democratic Party rules, so the Democratic National Committee determined they would not seat their delegates. There were 313 delegates at stake. Obama withdrew his name from the ballot in Michigan, and did not campaign in Florida. Clinton won both. At that time nobody thought this issue would become decisive for the nomination, but in such a close race, it certainly did. Last weekend the DNC met with representative so both sides and settled on a formula that allocated delegates to both in a very non-scientific way. It gave each of those delegated half a vote at the convention. While the formula was accepted by both sides, it has been perceived as a bonus for Obama, whose name was not even on the ballot in Michigan and yet he still got delegates allocated. This may still come up again at the National Convention in August. Many factors have thus combined to make Obama the presumptive nominee of the Democratic Party. In addition to momentum and rules we should also consider the fortunate pairing of Obama to the spirit of the times. The timing for an unconventional candidate could not have been better, and he emerged as the prophetic leader the times demanded. His demeanor, his background, and his non-assuming attitude, all make for the perfect post-modern candidate. The public embraced him and the media anointed him. Now, the question still remains, is his "gift of grace" strong enough to unify America? Can he summon the support he needs to win a national election? Given the complex electoral system based on state votes and an electoral college, and not on the popular vote, can he win the major states and the swing states?Here is where the selection of a vice-president becomes crucial.There is a big movement both from the grassroots and from Clintonites inside the party (yes, there are still some left!) to pressure Obama to pick Hillary as running mate. There are of course, both huge advantages and dismal disadvantages for Obama to ponder in his selection. His first consideration must be to win the election, but he also needs to be able to govern, once he wins.Hillary would bring in those votes that have eluded Obama: mature women, blue collar, rural. Seventy-six of her supporters want her to be Vice-president. She energizes audiences and has won the hearts of all those groups above-mentioned. They feel very strongly about her place in History and demand respect for their candidate. Some may not even come out to vote if Obama's ticket does not include her. She would also help win the big states (she won them all, among them California, Texas and New York) and the swing states, noticeable among them, Ohio, that determined Bush's victory in 04. On the other hand, she does evoke the past in the minds of many voters, and she is now undoubtedly a Washington insider (in fact, her experience has been counted as both an asset and a liability in this sense). She would distort Obama's image as the unconventional candidate, and his message of change and hope may be, if not lost, at least diminished.Insofar as governing, their ideologies and policy positions are perfectly compatible, if not identical, so that would not constitute a problem. She has been studying the intricacies of policy and politics since she was a university student at Wellesley College. She is capable, efficient, convincing and tireless. She is experienced in navigating the meandering straits of policy making, and can muster bipartisan support with her well-reasoned arguments.Another often-mentioned handicap is Bill Clinton himself. With his larger than life personality, can he play prince consort? Or would he be the one that governs behind the scenes, and have his own shadow cabinet, Cheney-style? His reputation has suffered a lot lately, not any more because of that infamous blue dress but because he has not disclosed the list of donors to his library, among which there allegedly are several Middle Eastern governments. There is real vitriol against him, and that is directly transferred to Hillary.For now, both candidates seem to be catching their breaths.Hillary postponed her concession speech for as long as possible, some say to put pressure on Obama to include her in the ticket. Barack, on his part, has quietly named a vetting team for a vice-presidential search. Caroline Kennedy is among its members, as is Eric Holden, President Clinton's former attorney- general. It is headed by Jim Johnson, former Chairman of Fannie Mae, who vetted VPs for John Kerry and Walter Mondale. After exhaustive interviews and background checks, Obama will decide.In the last two months of the campaign, the pundits were prone to repeating that the "math" was against Hillary. This was a gross oversimplification of a race that was characterized by peculiar circumstances and surprises at every turn, and one which was less about math than about intangibles: momentum, media frenzy, rules, emotions, charisma and zeitgeist . In the end, however, it may all very well come down to the "math": if Barack can be convinced that he needs Hillary to win against McCain, then he will pick her as his VP and put the rest of his concerns aside. This will also heal party wounds and bring into the fold her loyal constituencies. But public opinion is fickle, politics is an inexact science and many times emotions can trump the best thought- out and scientifically devised plans. Like Sisyphus rolling the boulder up the mountain, Obama may find he has to prove himself all over again and then come out empty-handed in November.In the meantime, and just for good measure, Obama, the "transformative candidate" is now wearing a US flag pin on his lapel.Puerto Ricans do not have the right to vote in national elections due to the "associated state "status, but they can vote in primary elections.This dynamic in the relationship between momentum and rules has been pointed out in a recent article by Jason Bello and Robert Shapiro, published in the Political Science Quarterly, vol. 123 No.1 Spring 08.Super delegates are unpledged party leaders who do not have to declare their presidential preferences until balloting takes place at the ConventionSenior Lecturer, Department of Political Science and Geography Director, ODU Model United Nations Program Old Dominion University, Norfolk, Virginia
This paper uses a case study of Costa Rica to identify the reasons why democracy is conducive for development. By the mid-twentieth century, Costa Rica had begun to depart from the all-too-common mixture of political instability and economic stagnation characteristic of much of the developing world. This paper claims that this country has benefited from better-than-average public policies, a conclusion based upon an original assessment of policy effectiveness and a major comparative ranking of state policies. It largely rejects the interpretation that uncommon development performance stems from institutions created during the colonial period and instead emphasizes how unending political stalemates gradually made the struggle for power more democratic. A central conclusion of this paper is that political competition-as well as steady economic growth rates and development, more generally-interact with and reinforce each other so that the exercise of power foments rather than retards economic growth.
Dissertação de Mestrado em Gestão e Internacionalização de Empresas ; Com a aquisição do direito de livre circulação de pessoas e comércio e com a diminuição das barreiras económicas, políticas e sociais, o turismo demonstrou-se um mecanismo de geração interna de riqueza. Contudo, as constantes mutações do espaço económico e a saturação do mercado interno, exigiu ao setor turístico uma maior competitividade e aplicação de inovação e diferenciação nos seus produtos/serviços. Para subsistirem no mercado, e manterem o seu posicionamento competitivo, a indústria hoteleira, viu nas suas vantagens internas uma oportunidade de explorar mercados internacionais, pelo que, ao longo dos anos, a internacionalização do turismo e o seu potencial impacto no desenvolvimento económico e social das regiões, assim como as suas determinantes, têm vindo a ser alvo de aprofundamento por parte dos estudiosos. Apesar do elevado contributo, deste segmento de atividade, para o desenvolvimento da economia, são ainda verificadas muitas desigualdades, não sendo o fluxo turístico, a internacionalização ou fixação de cadeias hoteleiras estrangeiras proporcional em todas as regiões portuguesas. Neste sentido, a literatura enumera algumas variáveis que podem explicar este fenómeno, como o nível educacional, conhecimentos partilhados e experiências adquiridas pelos recursos humanos; o grau de aglomeração de empresas do setor turístico e de produtos complementares; fatores macroeconómicos subjacentes à economia ou, até mesmo, recursos herdados/adquiridos ou fatores climatéricos. De forma a averiguar o impacto das determinantes, na indústria hoteleira e nos fluxos de turismo, foram realizados três estudos diferentes, sendo um deles elaborado ao nível das NUTS III e os restantes ao nível dos municípios, existindo uma comparação de resultados para o ano de referência. Numa primeira fase, com o intuito de verificar se existem evidências estatísticas para afirmar que as variáveis validadas pela literatura, i.e. aglomeração, conhecimento e recursos turísticos, são significativas para a decisão de internacionalização das cadeias hoteleiras, utilizou-se a base de dados por NUTS III e a análise de regressão linear multivariada. Numa segunda fase, aplicando a mesma técnica de análise, mas ao nível dos municípios e considerando apenas as variáveis de aglomeração e conhecimento, efetuou-se uma comparação direta com o estudo anterior, para a verificação de evidências estatísticas que afirmem a relação das variáveis em análise com a internacionalização da indústria hoteleira. Ainda nesta segunda etapa, as mesmas variáveis foram estudas para medir o impacto na proporção de turistas internacionais recebidos anualmente pelo país e a representação gráfica será elaborada. Numa terceira fase, considerando as variáveis até então estudadas, e acrescentando outras i.e., importação, exportação e temperatura, também aplicadas em estudos científicos relacionados ao turismo, realizou-se uma análise de regressão logística para estimar a probabilidade associada à decisão de internacionalização dos hotéis ou estabelecimento de cadeias hoteleiras estrangeiras em território português. Os resultados obtidos no primeiro artigo, permitem concluir que a aglomeração de empresas relacionadas ao setor do turismo é estatisticamente significativa, enquanto que, apenas alguns recursos de conhecimento e endógenos são estatisticamente significativos para a internacionalização do setor hoteleiro. No segundo artigo, verifica-se que a aglomeração continua a ser estaticamente significativa para internacionalização dos hotéis, assim como alguns recursos de conhecimento. Verifica-se, igualmente, ao nível da proporção de turistas internacionais que a aglomeração e alguns recursos de conhecimentos são estatisticamente significativos. Os mapas caracterizam os municípios de acordo com as variáveis em estudo. No terceiro artigo, conclui-se que a existência de um elevado grau de conhecimento, acesso a recursos herdados ou adquiridos e a participação no comércio internacional, afetam a probabilidade de internacionalização da indústria hoteleira, enquanto que a probabilidade de estabelecimento de hotéis estrangeiros varia de acordo com o nível de comércio internacional, recursos naturais e histórico-culturais e o clima das regiões. ; The acquisition of free movement of people and commerce and the reduction of economic, political and social barriers, tourism has shown to be a mechanism of wealth generation. However, the constant changes in the economic space and the saturation of the internal market led the tourism sector to become more competitive and apply innovation and differentiation in its products / services. In order to survive in the market and maintain its competitive position, the hotel industry found in its internal advantages an opportunity to explore international markets, so over the years the internationalization of tourism and its potential impact on regional economic and social development, as well as their determinants, have been intensified by scholars. Despite the high contribution of this industry to the development of the economy, many inequalities persist in terms of the tourist flow, internationalization or establishment of foreign hotel chains proportional in all Portuguese regions. In this sense, the literature lists some variables that may explain this phenomenon, such as educational level, shared knowledge and experiences acquired by human resources; the degree of agglomeration of tourism firms and complementary products; macroeconomic factors underlying the economy or even inherited / acquired resources or climacteric factors. In order to find out the impact of the determinants in the hotel industry and tourism flows, three different studies were conducted, one being established at the level of NUTS III and the rest at the counties level, allowing to compare results. At an initial stage, in order to verify statistical evidence to confirm that the variables validated by the literature, i.e. agglomeration, knowledge and touristic resources, are significant for the internationalization decision of the hotel chains, based on NUTS III data subjected to multivariate linear regression analysis. In a second stage, applying the same techniques, but at the level of the counties and considering only the variables of agglomeration and knowledge, a direct comparison was made with the previous study, for verifying statistical evidence that confirm the relation between the variables in analysis with the internationalization of the hotel industry. Subsequently, the same variables were used to measure the impact on the proportion of international tourists received, annually, using the graphical representation. In a third stage, considering the variables previously studied, and adding others i.e., import, export and temperature, also applied in scientific studies related to tourism, a logistic regression analysis was performed to estimate the probability associated to the internationalization decision of the hotels or establishment of foreign hotel chains in Portuguese territory. The results obtained in the first article allow us to conclude that the agglomeration of firms related to the tourism sector is statistically significant, whereas only some knowledge and endogenous resources are statistically significant for the internationalization of the hotel sector.In the second article it is verified that the agglomeration continues to be statically significant for the internationalization of the hotels, as well as some knowledge resources. It is also verified, at the level of the proportion of international tourists, that the agglomeration and some resources of knowledge are statistically significant. The maps characterize the counties according to the variables under study. In the third article, it is concluded that the existence of a high degree of knowledge, access to inherited or acquired resources and participation in international trade, affects the probability of internationalization of the hotel industry, while the probability of establishing foreign hotels varies according to the level of international trade, natural and historical-cultural resources and the climate of the regions.
