Search results

The post Women in International Law Vol. 2 appeared first on Völkerrechtsblog.

The post Women in International Law Vol. 1 appeared first on Völkerrechtsblog.

"Unintended Consequences of International Mediation" published on by Oxford University Press.

The post International Law and the Political appeared first on Völkerrechtsblog.

The post The Battle for International Law appeared first on Völkerrechtsblog.

"The International Crisis Behavior Project" published on by Oxford University Press.

Thomas Biersteker took part in 2019 Gerda Henkel Forum: Values and Interests in Communication Between Russia and The West held in MGIMO-University in late April this year and on the margins of the Forum he was kind enough to give an interview to our editor Vadim Belenkov on effectiveness of targeted international sanctions. Professor Biersteker is a renowned expert on this issue, he co-edited a book «Targeted Sanctions» recently published by Cambridge University Press. The interview shows that targeted sanctions involve restrictive measures against a narrowly-defined range of individuals and firms. Professor Biersteker explained in detail the difference between sanctions with the purpose of coercion, constraining and signaling. He reaffirmed his claim that effectiveness of sanctions should be studied separately for each type of purposes. In the interview professor Biersteker updated some of the findings published in his book three years ago. In 2016 constraining and signaling sanctions were effective at the same level, 27 % of the time. Today data reveal that effective constraining fell by 4 % points and effective signaling rose by 2 % points. Effectiveness of coercion remains at 10 %. The average effectiveness of sanctions across three types is about 20 %. Taking into consideration the difficulty of conflicts and issues over which sanctions are applied – North Korea's nuclear program, Iran's potential development of nuclear weapon program, ethnic and religious conflicts in Africa, the Middle East – 20 % should not be considered a small figure. Biersteker also reaffirmed the «sanctions paradox» found in 1999 by Daniel Drezner that very often the countries against which sanctions would be most likely effective are those that are most interdependent whereas sanctions are usually applied in situations when they are less likely to be effective.

In this article, we incorporate the study of diasporas into international relations (IR) theory by focusing on diasporas as independent actors who actively influence their homeland (kin-state) foreign policies. We argue that diasporic influences can best be understood by situating them in the 'theoretical space' shared by constructivism and liberalism; two approaches that acknowledge the impact of identity and domestic politics on international behavior. We also maintain that the exploration of diasporic activities can enrich both constructivism and liberalism. First, diasporas' identity-based motivations should be an integral part of the constructivist effort to explain the formation of national identities. Second, diasporic activities and influences in their homelands expand the meaning of the term 'domestic politics' to include not only politics inside the state but also inside the people For the liberal approach, this is a "new fact" in the Lakatosian sense of the word. We theorize that the extent of diasporic influence on homeland foreign policy is determined by three components that make up the 'balance of power' between homelands and diasporas. We then test this theory by delving into the interaction between the newly established state of Armenia and its powerful diaspora, and by comparing this case with examples taken from the relations between Israel and diaspora Jews.

Some of the most important phenomena in international conflict are coded as "rare events": binary dependent variables with dozens to thousands of times fewer events, such as wars and coups, than "nonevents." Unfortunately, rare events data are difficult to explain and predict, a problem stemming from at least two sources. First, and most important, the data-collection strategies used in international conflict studies are grossly inefficient. The fear of collecting data with too few events has led to data collections with huge numbers of observations but relatively few, and poorly measured, explanatory variables. As it turns out, more efficient sampling designs exist for making valid inferences, such as sampling all available events (wars, for example) and a tiny fraction of nonevents (peace). This enables scholars to save as much as 99 percent of their (nonfixed) data-collection costs or to collect much more meaningful explanatory variables. Second, logistic regression, and other commonly used statistical procedures, can underestimate the probability of rare events. We introduce some corrections that outperform existing methods and change the estimates of absolute and relative risks by as much as some estimated effects reported in the literature. We also provide easy-to-use methods and software that link these two results, enabling both types of corrections to work simultaneously.

Danksagung -- 1. Einleitung -- 1.1. Die theoretische Herausforderung der Osteuropäischen Revolution: Anlaß und Ziele der Untersuchung -- 1.2. Fallvergleich und retroduktive Theoriebildung: Das Design der Untersuchung -- 1: Heuristik -- 2. Der argumentationsanalytische Ansatz in der Friedens- und Konfliktforschung -- 3. Der argumentationsanalytische Ansatz und internationale Systemkonflikte -- 4. Die Beschreibung internationaler Systemkonflikte -- 2: Geschichte -- 5. Der internationale Konfessionskonflikt -- 6. Der absolutistisch-demokratische Systemkonflikt -- 7. Der Ost-West-Systemkonflikt -- 8. Die internationalen Systemkonflikte im Vergleich -- 3: Theorie -- 9. Theoriekonstruktion -- 10. Kausale Mechanismen -- 4: Erklärung -- 11. Dissens und Argumentation in internationalen Systemkonflikten -- 12. Das Ende des Ost-West-Konflikts -- 13. Auf dem Weg in ein neues Mittelalter? -- Literatur -- Verzeichnis der Abbildungen und Tabellen.