В статье определены методологические основы для новых критериев эффективности и стандартов товаров и услуг в новой киберсреде, а также причины и последствия трансформации спроса на роботизированные товары и услуги. Прогнозируется новейшая эра массовой киборгизации и гибридизации как следующий этап роботизации, проведен анализ новых вызовов и угроз массовой коммерциализации прорывных исследований. Выявлено влияние глобальной среды на мезо-уровень роботизации и замещение негибридной среды тотальной гибридной средой на примере стран-пионеров форсированного развития технологических укладов (Японии, США, Южной Кореи, Германии). Даны определения и существующие классификации роботов трех поколений, с учетом основного критерия способности роботов быть самообучаемыми. Описаны методологические критерии и требования к конкурентоспособности стран-лидеров в новой киберсреде в эпоху «шестого техноуклада», включая военную, социальную, политическую и экономическую стабильность, оборонный потенциал в новых гибридных, бесконтактных кибервойнах. Проведен сравнительный анализ известных прогнозов, включая «The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerization» Карла Фрея и Майкла Осборна, «The Future of Jobs, 2025: Working Side-By-Side with Robots» от «Forrester Research», прогноза Всемирного экономического форума (ВЭФ) «The Future of Jobs» от 18.02.2016 г. и «Robotic Nation» Маршалла Брайна, на период до 2025 года об эффектах массовой роботизации, в том числе о влиянии роботизации на занятость населения мира. Проведен анализ целевого подхода, описаны прогрессивные методологические подходы на государственном и корпоративном уровнях, определено значение критериев эффективности реализации Программы «Революции роботов» в Японии (ключевые количественные плановые показатели до 2020 года, пять областей для концентрации научных исследований), лучший опыт которой целесообразно применить в РФ, включая стратегический план развития роботов в Японии по превращению нероботизированных систем в роботизированные системы и форсированную массовую роботизацию. Дан комплексный анализ междисциплинарных связей, на стыке которых возможны научные прорывы, определяющие глобальное технологическое развитие. Приведен аналитический список выявленных вызовов и угроз роботизации правительствам, бизнесу, безопасности, здоровью, личной жизни и свободе сознания и воли человека. Выявлены новые цели, роли и задачи бизнеса в эпоху роботизации, функции правительств, дан прогноз о степени трансформации потребностей человечества в новом укладе. Предполагается, что конкурентоспособность роботов будет зависеть от степени их способности встраиваться в существующую технологическую линию и /или создавать собственную новую технологическую среду (линию) для встраивания линейки следующих роботов с учетом критериев эффективности роботов для каждой отрасли. Подчеркнута важность рационализации и многофункциональности роботов двойного назначения. Выявлены условия новой гибридной среды, связанные с роботизацией: Приведен количественный анализ основных проектов по созданию андроидов в мире. Разработки автора статьи актуальны для лиц, принимающих решения в области роботизации. ; In the article the methodological bases for the new criteria of goods and services efficiency and standards in a new cyber environment, and also the reasons and consequences of the robotic goods and services demands' transformation are defined. The newest era of the mass cyber development and hybridization as the following robotization stage is predicted, the analysis of the new mass commercialization challenges and threats of its breakthrough researches is carried out. The global environment influence on the level of corporate robotization and replacement of a non-hybrid environment by the totally hybrid environment are given on the example of the countries pioneers of the forced technological development (Japan, the USA, South Korea, and Germany). The definitions and the existing robots' classifications of three generations are revealed, taking into the account its main criteria robots' so called self-training ability. The methodological criteria and requirements to the leading countries' competitiveness in a new cyber environment in "the sixth technological shift era", including the military, social, political and economic stability, the defensive potential in the new hybrid and contactless cyber wars, are described. The comparative analysis of the well-known forecasts is conducted, including "The Future of Employment is carried out: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerization" by Karl Frey and Michael Osborn, "The Future of Jobs, 2025: Working Side-By-Side with Robots" from "Forrester Research", the forecast of the World Economic Forum (WEF) of "The Future of Jobs" from 2016 and "Robotic Nation" of Marshall Brian, for the period till 2025 about the mass robotization effects, including the influence of robotization on the global employment. The target approach analysis is carried out, as well as the progressive methodological approaches on the governmental and corporate levels are described. The value of the efficient implementation criteria of the Revolutions of Robots Program in Japan is defined (key quantitative planned targets till 2020, and the five areas for the scientific researches concentration). The analyzed best experience is expedient to be applied in the Russian Federation, including the strategic robotic development plan in Japan, aimed at the transformation of the non-robotic systems into the fully robotic systems and the forced mass robotization. The complex analysis of the cross-disciplinary links, valued for the scientific breaks through, which define the global technological development, is given.The analytical list of the revealed robotization challenges and threats to governments, business, safety, health, private life, freedom of consciousness and the person al will is provided. The new business purposes, roles and tasks in the robotization an era and the governmental functions are revealed, and the global needs' and demands' transformation forecast is given. It is supposed that a robot's competitiveness will depend on its existing in-building technological ability level and/or the new technological environmental level for the following generation of the robotic line embedding, taking into an account the field robotic efficiency criteria. The importance of rationalization and multifunctional, dual purpose robotic abilities is emphasized. The conditions of the new hybrid environment connected with robotization are revealed: The quantitative analysis of the main global androids projects is provided. The author's innovations in the article are meaningful for the decisions making persons in the field of robotization.
We report on a two-year project to develop, validate and evaluate a complex scenario-based role-play (SBRP) exercise. Using an earthquake scenario, our aim was to assist participants (students in geology, engineering, and hazard and disaster management, as well as emergency management professionals) to improve their science communication skills. The project was split into two phases. The first phase focused on the development of the scenario itself, and the communication tasks for the participants. This phase comprised iterations 0-3 (n=30 students, n=11 instructors) and we used a mixture of classroom observations, and student and instructor feedback to make iterative improvements to optimise the flow and look-and-feel of the SBRP. In the second phase of the study (iterations 4-6; n=44), we developed and validated two instruments to measure communication experience (CE) and perceptions of crisis communication (PCC). Combined with an existing instrument measuring communication confidence (SPCC), we were able to assess a variety of factors influencing communication performance. For the scenario, we chose an earthquake event affecting Greymouth, on the South Island of New Zealand; which is affected by local seismicity and regional seismicity from a possible Alpine Fault event. Supportive technology was also developed. This focused on providing supporting scientific and infrastructure data, as well as modern communication tools, delivered through Google Earth, file sharing, and social media. SBRP participants are assigned to realistic roles and responsibilities (e.g., the Group Controller, GNS Seismologist, or Public Information Manager) and work within realistic teams modelled after the New Zealand Civil Defence and Emergency Management organisational protocols and structures. These are the Science Advisory Group (SAG) which provides science advice, and the Civil Defence and Emergency Management (CDEM) team which manages the crisis. Participants experience several authentic crisis communication tasks: town-hall meetings, developing an information pamphlet, media releases, radio bulletins, a press conference, a panel discussion and a debrief. Results from phase 1 showed that the final SBRP was a robust and flexible tool to meet a variety of learning goals. Using the SPCC, we found that students from the US had statistically higher pre-scores than NZ students (78% versus 69%, unpaired t-test, t=2.39, p=0.03). This indicates that a student's background may influence their communication confidence. Overall (on average) experience resulted in positive changes with most students achieving positive changes with a mean change of 2.6 ± 4.3. A paired t-test of pre- and post-SPCC scores resulted in statistically significant differences (t=-3.00, p=0.006) indicating that our SBRP is successful at positive changes in communication confidence. These changes were independent of pre-score, meaning that the SBRP is effective in changing confidence levels regardless of previous levels of confidence. The largest positive shifts are observed in the public speaking, meeting, and stranger (i.e., unknown member of the public) categories of the instrument, which is encouraging as these dimensions are explicitly emphasised in the SBRP. Using the PCC, we compared participants' perceptions of crisis communication to those of experts (i.e., academics, emergency managers, and science communicators). Participants showed statistically significant positive shifts (i.e. more agreement with expert perceptions; paired t-test comparing pre- and post-scores; t=-7.76, p<0.001, Cohen's d=-1.00). In addition, one group achieved higher changes than others (iteration 4 participants mean change =10.7 ± 6.0; iteration 6 participants mean change = 5.7± 3.4; unpaired t-test, t=2.38, p=0.03; Cohen's d=1.02). Several factors appeared to influence the amount of changes achieved, such as nationality, their year of degree programme, and the team (i.e., CDEM vs. SAG) the participants were in during the SBRP. Analysis of the individual statements on the PCC (49 in total) showed that there were items in which most student groups agreed with experts ('high perceptions') and others which they disagreed with experts ('low perceptions'). More importantly there were several topics which experts struggled with (i.e., resulted in predominantly 'neutral' responses, but with distributions leaning more towards agree or disagree) that also resulted in mixed and low perceptions from the student participants. Notably, the topics of: comprehensiveness, showing the scientist's emotions, political influence/agenda, use of formal language, and use of graphs and plots. There were also statements which resulted in emergency management professionals disagreeing with the student groups: the 'why' of the crisis, discussing past crisis scenarios (i.e., context), and the communication of probabilities. To investigate any relationships between the communication proxies, we compared the scores of the communication experience (CE), confidence (SPCC), and perceptions (PCC) to one another. Though there were no statistically significant associations between pre- or post-scores within the instruments, but we did find a positive relationship between the changes achieved in confidence and perceptions, indicating that students who experience positive shifts in confidence, also experienced positive shifts in perceptions. This means that for some participants, the SBRP was duly effective in both dimensions resulting in an overall, challenging but highly beneficial learning experience. Lessons learned from this project include: 1) the buy-in from instructors of courses is crucial for a successful integration in the curricula; 2) the amount of flexibility in the design of the SBRP is not as large as we thought it would be; and 3) the value of having a full-time postdoctoral fellow working on the project, rather than multiple part-time employees. In the near future, we plan to collaborate with various stakeholders to bring the SBRP to professional development opportunities for practicing emergency managers in New Zealand. Future research will include a more detailed characterisation of the phase 2 pre and post qualitative data to more clearly link the communication proxies to the experiences in the SBRP and attempt to make causal inferences of the proxies to the communication performance of participants.
Nafta je imala značajni utjecaj na razvoj svjetskog pa tako i hrvatskog gospodarstva. Dinamičan rast proizvodnje, prerade i potrošnje nafte, posebno 1970. tih i 1980. tih godina bio je praćen i utjecao je na znatno veće stope rasta bruto domaćeg proizvoda nego su one posljednjih godina. Velike nafte kompanije bile su nositelji gospodarskog razvoja na svjetskoj razini, a na lokalnoj razini to su manje nacionalne kompanije, kao što su INA d.d. i JANAF d.d. u Hrvatskoj. Naftno gospodarstvo razvijalo se u turbuletnim uvjetima naftnog tržišta uz stalne oscilacije cijena nafte, prilagođavajući se izazovima provedbe novih energetskih politika i mjera u vezi klimatskih promjena, političkim krizama, i dr. Posljednjih godina proizvodnja i potrošnja nafte stagniraju na svjetskoj razini (4,2 -4,3 milijarde tona), pri čemu se u razvijenim državama bilježi pad, a veće stope rasta u Kini, Indiji i rastućim ekonomijama Azije. Počeci nafte (istraživanje i proizvodnja) u Hrvatskoj bili su u prvoj polovici 19. stoljeća, odnosno krajem 19. i početkom 20. stoljeća (rafinerije). Procvat naftnog gospodarstva Hrvatske u 1970. tim i 1980. tim godinama obilježili su rekordna proizvodnja nafte od 3,1 mil. tona (1981.) prema današnjih 613 tisuća tona (2015.) i rekordna prerada od 9,2 mil. tona (1979.) prema današnjih 3,5 mil. tona. Hrvatska sudjeluje s 0,145 promila u svjetskoj proizvodnji nafte i s 0,862 promila u svjetskoj potrošnji nafte. Daljnji razvoj i globalizacija naftnog sektora može se desiti intenziviranjem istraživanja i proizvodnje nafte kako u Hrvatskoj tako i u inozemstvu, ali i uz modernizaciju rafinerija i povećanje udjela na domaćem i inozemnim tržištima. Transport nafte pratio je razvoj prerade nafte na domaćem tržištu, ali posebno na inozemnim tržištima država jugoistočne i srednje Europe, pa je tako najveći transport od 9,7 mil. tona ostvaren u 1990. prema 6,2 mil. tona u 2015. s trendom rasta zbog povećanja transporta za inozemne rafinerije i njihove diverzifikacije uvoza nafte iz pravca Omišlja. Strategija diverzifikacije prema skladištenju nafte i naftnih derivata podržava i dalje rast kako naftnih kompanija tako i hrvatske ekonomije. Naftno gospodarstvo Hrvatske biti će i dalje pod utjecajem promjenjivog naftnog tržišta kojeg obilježava: promjenjivost cijena, globalni trend smanjenja potrošnje derivata, stroža regulativa i standardi kvalitete, politika i mjere za povećanjem sigurnosti opskrbe, rast troškova i investicija uz pritiske smanjenja cijena, trend rasta uvoza i konkurentnosti derivata, diverzifikacija izvora i pravaca opskrbe, i dr. Zbog toga su nužne kontinuirane prilagodbe, brzi odgovori na izazove i razvoj novih strategija diverzifikacije i rasta. ; Crude oil had a significant influence on the development of both global and Croatian economies. The dynamic growth of production, refining and consumption of crude oil, especially in the 1970s and 1980s was followed by and influenced the significantly higher growth rates of the gross domestic product than those occurred during the last years. Major oil companies were the leaders of the economic development on the global level, while at the local level such leaders are smaller national companies, such as INA Plc. and JANAF Plc. in Croatia. Oil economy developed in turbulent conditions of crude oil market with constant oscillations of crude oil prices, through adjustments to the challenges of implementing new energy policies and measures with regard to climate changes, political crises, and others. Over the last years, a stagnation in crude oil production and consumption has been observed on the global level (4,2 -4,3 billion tons), with a decline being recorded in the developed countries, while higher growth rates have been noticed in China, India and the emerging Asian economies. The beginnings of crude oil (exploration and production) in Croatia dated back to the first half of the 19th century and the end of the 19th century and the beginning of the 20th century (refineries) respectively. The bloom of the Croatian oil economy during the 1970s and 1980s was marked by the crude oil production hitting a record high of 3,1 mil. tons (in 1981) in comparison with the present 613 thousand tons (in 2015) and refining of an all-time high amounting to 9,2 mil. tons (in 1979) as compared to the present 3,5 mil. tons. Croatia contributes with 0,145 pro mille in the global oil production and with 0,862 pro mille in the global oil consumption. Further development and globalisation of oil sector may occur through intensifying the activities on crude oil exploration and production both in Croatia and abroad, but also along with the refineries modernization and increase of share on both domestic and foreign markets. Crude oil transport followed the development of crude oil refining on the domestic market, and especially on the foreign markets of the countries of South-Eastern and Central Europe, with the highest transport of 9,7 mil. tons being achieved in 1990, as compared to 6,2 mil. tons in 2015, with the growth trend being observed owing to increase in transport for foreign refineries and their diversification of crude oil imports from the Omišalj direction. The diversification strategy directed towards storage of crude oil and petroleum products further supports the growth of oil companies and Croatian economy as well. The Croatian oil economy will still remain under the influence of volatile oil market characterised by: price volatility, global trend of reducing the petroleum products consumption, stricter regulations and quality standards, policies and measures for enhancing the security of supply, growing costs and investments together with pressures of reducing prices, growth trend of imports and competitiveness of petroleum products, diversification of supply sources and routes and other. Therefore, continuous adjustments are necessary, as well as prompt responses to challenges and development of new strategies for diversification and growth.
In the article the methodological bases for the new criteria of goods and services efficiency and standards in a new cyber environment, and also the reasons and consequences of the robotic goods and services demands' transformation are defined. The newest era of the mass cyber development and hybridization as the following robotization stage is predicted, the analysis of the new mass commercialization challenges and threats of its breakthrough researches is carried out. The global environment influence on the level of corporate robotization and replacement of a non-hybrid environment by the totally hybrid environment are given on the example of the countries pioneers of the forced technological development (Japan, the USA, South Korea, and Germany). The definitions and the existing robots' classifications of three generations are revealed, taking into the account its main criteria robots' so called self-training ability.The methodological criteria and requirements to the leading countries' competitiveness in a new cyber environment in "the sixth technological shift era", including the military, social, political and economic stability, the defensive potential in the new hybrid and contactless cyber wars, are described.The comparative analysis of the well-known forecasts is conducted, including 'The Future of Employment is carried out: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerization" by Karl Frey and Michael Osborn, 'The Future of Jobs, 2025: Working Side-By-Side with Robots" from "Forrester Research" the forecast of the World Economic Forum (WEF) of'The Future of Jobs" from 2016 and "Robotic Nation" of Marshall Brian, for the period till 2025 about the mass robotization effects, including the influence of robotization on the global employment.The target approach analysis is carried out, as well as the progressive methodological approaches on the governmental and corporate levels are described. The value of the efficient implementation criteria of the Revolutions of Robots Program in Japan is defined (key quantitative planned targets till 2020, and the five areas for the scientific researches concentration). The analyzed best experience is expedient to be applied in the Russian Federation, including the strategic robotic development plan in Japan, aimed at the transformation of the non-robotic systems into the fully robotic systems and the forced mass robotization.The complex analysis of the cross-disciplinary links, valued for the scientific breaks through, which define the global technological development, is given.The analytical list of the revealed robotization challenges and threats to governments, business, safety, health, private life, freedom of consciousness and the person al will is provided. The new business purposes, roles and tasks in the robotization an era and the governmental functions are revealed, and the global needs' and demands' transformation forecast is given.It is supposed that a robot's competitiveness will depend on its existing in-building technological ability level and/or the new technological environmental level for the following generation of the robotic line embedding, taking into an account the field robotic efficiency criteria. The importance of rationalization and multifunctional, dual purpose robotic abilities is emphasized.The conditions of the new hybrid environment connected with robotization are revealed: The quantitative analysis of the main global androids projects is provided. The author's innovations in the article are meaningful for the decisions making persons in the field of robotization. ; В статье определены методологические основы для новых критериев эффективности и стандартов товаров и услуг в новой киберсреде, а также причины и последствия трансформации спроса на роботизированные товары и услуги. Прогнозируется новейшая эра массовой киборгизации и гибридизации как следующий этап роботизации, проведен анализ новых вызовов и угроз массовой коммерциализации прорывных исследований. Выявлено влияние глобальной среды на мезо-уровень роботизации и замещение негибридной среды тотальной гибридной средой на примере стран-пионеров форсированного развития технологических укладов (Японии, США, Южной Кореи, Германии). Даны определения и существующие классификации роботов трех поколений, с учетом основного критерия способности роботов быть самообучаемыми.Описаны методологические критерии и требования к конкурентоспособности стран-лидеров в новой киберсреде в эпоху «шестого техноуклада», включая военную, социальную, политическую и экономическую стабильность, оборонный потенциал в новых гибридных, бесконтактных кибервойнах.Проведен сравнительный анализ известных прогнозов, включая «The Future of Employment: How SusceptibleAre Jobs to Computerization» Карла Фрея и Майкла Осборна, «The Future of Jobs, 2025: Working Side-By-Side with Robots» от «Forrester Research», прогноза Всемирного экономического форума (ВЭФ) «The Future of Jobs» от 18.02.2016 г. и «Robotic Nation» Маршалла Брайна, на период до 2025 года об эффектах массовой роботизации, в том числе о влиянии роботизации на занятость населения мира. Проведен анализ целевого подхода, описаны прогрессивные методологические подходы на государственном и корпоративном уровнях, определено значение критериев эффективности реализации Программы «Революции роботов» в Японии (ключевые количественные плановые показатели до 2020 года, пять областей для концентрации научных исследований), лучший опыт которой целесообразно применить в РФ, включая стратегический план развития роботов в Японии по превращению нероботизированных систем в роботизированные системы и форсированную массовую роботизацию.Дан комплексный анализ междисциплинарных связей, на стыке которых возможны научные прорывы, определяющие глобальное технологическое развитие. Приведен аналитический список выявленных вызовов и угроз роботизации правительствам, бизнесу, безопасности, здоровью, личной жизни и свободе сознания и воли человека. Выявлены новые цели, роли и задачи бизнеса в эпоху роботизации, функции правительств, дан прогноз о степени трансформации потребностей человечества в новом укладе. Предполагается, что конкурентоспособность роботов будет зависеть от степени их способности встраиваться в существующую технологическую линию и /или создавать собственную новую технологическую среду (линию) для встраивания линейки следующих роботов с учетом критериев эффективности роботов для каждой отрасли. Подчеркнута важность рационализации и многофункциональности роботов двойного назначения. Выявлены условия новой гибридной среды, связанные с роботизацией: Приведен количественный анализ основных проектов по созданию андроидов в мире. Разработки автора статьи актуальны для лиц, принимающих решения в области роботизации.
Die Dissertation enthält Abhandlungen des Autors zur Entwicklungspolitik und Solidarität in der DDR im Zeitraum von 1968 bis 1990 bzw. 1994. Im Rahmen analytischer Rekonstruktionen werden die entwicklungsbezogene Bildungsarbeit der unabhängigen Dritte-Welt-Gruppen und die staatliche Entwicklungszusammenarbeit untersucht. Wichtige Grundlagen für die Abhandlungen sind bisher zur wissenschaftlichen und theoretischen Fundierung des Verständnisses von Entwicklungspolitik und Solidarität in der DDR nur in geringem Maße herangezogene Archivmaterialien der ehemaligen Staats- und Parteiapparate sowie aus kirchlichen Beständen. Die entwicklungsbezogene Bildung der unabhängigen Dritte-Welt-Gruppen wird auf ihre Korrespondenzen mit internationalen Entwicklungen seit 1968 und den staatlichen Rahmen in der DDR analysiert. Aufgezeigt wird, dass die unabhängigen Gruppen seit 1968 mit internationalen emanzipatorischen Bestrebungen in Kontakt standen und von den ökumenischen Verbindungen der Kirchen partizipierten. Konzepte der evangelischen Kirchen der 1970er Jahre von einem "verbesserlichen Sozialismus" (Heino Falcke) und der "Kirche als Lerngemeinschaft" unterstützten frühzeitig substantiell die politische Bildungsarbeit der Gruppen unter den repressiven Verhältnissen der DDR und förderten eigenständiges und selbstorganisiertes Engagement. Impulse aus der westeuropäischen Erwachsenenbildung (Ernst Lange) und der "Pädagogik der Unterdrückten" (Paulo Freire) lassen sich nachweisen. In den 1980er Jahren kam es zu einem Wechsel von einer auf kirchliche Strukturen ausgerichteten Arbeit hin zu einer politischen Arbeit, die auf Veränderungen in der Gesellschaft der DDR abzielte. Der Ansatz der entwicklungsbezogenen Bildung, durch Informations- und Bewusstseinsarbeit Verständnis für Veränderungen im Nord-Süd-Verhältnis, wie in der eigenen Gesellschaft zu fördern, erwies sich auch unter den Verhältnissen der DDR als motivierend. Rekonstruiert wird die Entstehung und Arbeitsweise des ostdeutschen entwicklungspolischen Netzwerkes INKOTA. Ihm wird eine intermediäre Funktion zwischen verschiedenen Akteuren zugeschrieben, die den gemäßigt widerständigen Charakter der Dritte-Welt-Gruppen in der Oppositionsbewegung der DDR mit prägte. In den Gruppen fand vielfältiges informelles Lernen und selbstorganisierter Kompetenzerwerb statt. Herausgearbeitet wird, dass diese Lernprozesse im zentralistischen System der DDR für die unabhängigen Gruppen einen hohen Stellenwert aufwiesen. Den in den Gruppen erworbenen Fähigkeiten kam in der friedlichen Wende 1989/1990 eine herausragende Bedeutung zu. Mit der politischen Einheit Deutschlands verloren diese Fähigkeiten schnell an Wirksamkeit. Die weit verstreut und halboffiziell in Kleinstauflagen erschienenen kirchlichen Veröffentlichen zur entwicklungsbezogenen Bildung werden erstmals in einer Bibliografie nach den Herausgebern zusammengefasst und systematisch geordnet. Damit wird eine Grundlage zur weiteren Erforschung entwicklungsbezogener bzw. politischer Bildungsarbeit im Rahmen der Oppositionsforschung der DDR gegeben. An den Beziehungen der DDR zu Mosambik und Äthiopien wird untersucht, wie zu ausgewählten Entwicklungsländern auf Grundlage der marxistisch-leninistischen Theorie der Außenpolitik bzw. der Außenhandelspolitik und wirtschaftlicher Engpässe die praktische Solidarität gestaltet wurden. Aufgezeigt wird, dass die eigenen ökonomischen Interessen teilweise in erheblichem Maße zum Schaden der befreundeten Entwicklungsländer durchsetzt wurden. Dieser Widerspruch sollte unter anderem durch eine hohe Geheimhaltung verdeckt werden. Die staatliche Informationspolitik zu entwicklungspolitischen Fragen erfolgte aus diesem Grund besonders restriktiv. An Hand von exemplarischen Analysen (Äthiopien: Unterstützung des Machtwechsels 1977, Kaffeeimport; Mosambik: Steinkohlebergbau, landwirtschaftliche Großprojekte, Vertragsarbeiter, Außenhandelsschulden, Solidaritätsleistungen) werden Entscheidungsprozesse des Partei- und Staatsapparates aufgezeigt. Die Ergebnisse entsprachen meist nicht den eigenen Ansprüchen wie den Kriterien solidarischer Entwicklungszusammenarbeit. Gedruckte Version im Verlag erschienen: Döring, Hans-Joachim: Es geht um unsere Existenz. Die Politik der DDR gegenüber der Dritten Welt am Beispiel von Mosambik und Äthiopien. - 2. Aufl. - Berlin: Links, 2001. - 353 S. - ISBN 978-3-86153-185-2 ; The dissertation contains discourses by the author on development policies and solidarity in the GDR from 1968-1990 and 1994 respectively. The development-related education of independent, Third World groups and the state development cooperation will be examined in the framework of analytic reconstructions. Up till now, important fundamentals for the discourse have been the scientific and theoretical foundations of the understanding of development polities and solidarity in the GDR. These were put together from scarce archive materials of the former state and party machine as well as from church documents. The development-related education of the independent Third World groups will be analyzed by their correspondences with international developments since 1968 and the state framework of the GDR. It shows that the independent groups were in contact with international emancipation attempts since 1968 and participated in the ecumenical connections of the church. Concepts of the evangelical churches in the 1970s of an "improvable socialism" (Heino Falcke) and the "church as a learning community" earlier substantially supported the political education of the groups under the repressive conditions of the GDR and demanded independent and self-organized commitments. Impetus from Western European adult education (Ernst Lange) and the "pedagogy of the repressed" (Paulo Freire) demonstrate this. In the 1980s there was a change from a work aimed at a ecclesiastical structure to a political work that targeted a change in the society of the GDR. The basic approach of education, which was development-related, promoted understanding through information and consciousness work for changes in the North-South relationship as one would do in his own society. This proved to be motivating even under the atmosphere of the GDR. The creation and the operating principles of the East German developmental policy network INKOTA was reconstructed. It was assigned an intermediary function between the different players that helped form the moderate resistive nature of the Third World groups in the counter movement of the GDR. A complex informal learning and self-organized acquisition of expertise took place in the groups. It was defined that the independent groups in the centralized system of the GDR highly valued this learning process. The abilities acquired in the group took on a prominent importance during the peaceful revolution between 1989/1990. However, with the political unity of Germany these accomplishments quickly lost their effectiveness. The widely dispersed and half-official ecclesiastic publications, which were printed in small runs on the development education were systematically organized into a bibliography and categorized according to their publisher. This laid the basis for further research on development related and political education in the framework of the opposition research given in the GRD. The relationship of the GDR to Mozambique and Ethiopia is being examined to see how they designed their solidarity to certain developing countries, which were chosen according to their foundations of Marxist-Lenin theory of foreign policies, foreign trade policies and economic bottle-necks. What was discovered was that their own economical interests were asserted usually at the expense of the developing countries they had befriended. This contradiction was kept hidden as a strict secret. The state information policies on questions involving development policies which followed as a result were especially restricted. By means of example analysis (In Ethiopia: supporting the change of power in 1977, coffee import; In Mozambique: anthracite, large agricultural projects, contract workers, trade schools, solidarity achievements) the decision-making processes of the party and state administrations were identified. The results did not correspond most of the time with their own demands, like with the solidarity of development cooperation criteria. Printed version available: Döring, Hans-Joachim: Es geht um unsere Existenz. Die Politik der DDR gegenüber der Dritten Welt am Beispiel von Mosambik und Äthiopien. - 2. Aufl. - Berlin: Links, 2001. - 353 S. - ISBN 978-3-86153-185-2
The widespread loss and degradation of habitat constitutes the largest threat to biodiversity in North America. While regulatory programs such as the Endangered Species Act of 1973 and wetland permitting under the Clean Water Act have addressed acute assaults on critical habitat, large areas of unprotected uplands have been lost. Urban development, particularly the advent of lower density suburban and rural sprawl, has greatly diminished the extent of contiguous patches of forest habitat and introduced a host of other undesirable effects on ecosystem function. This study sought to evaluate the extent of urban sprawl and its effects on ecological integrity in Florida using Landsat-derived land cover data collected by the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission (FWC) circa 1987 and 2003. Chapter 1 described a novel GIS technique for correcting the systematic errors in the FWC 1987 and 2003 land cover data and converting those data to a common classification system so that they could be used in any ad hoc land cover change analysis. Comparison to ground-truth observations demonstrated a significant improvement in the accuracy of the land cover data following the Land Cover Correction Process (LCCP). Change detection between 1987 and 2003 using the correct land cover revealed trends in land cover conversion that were very different from previously published results derived from the original FWC land cover data. Conversion to urban uses in the corrected data was 47,293 ha lower, and conversion to agricultural uses was reduced by 196,773 ha, resulting in 244,067 ha less anthropogenic land conversion than had been previously estimated. Although the corrected land cover data showed that overall land conversion of natural areas was lower compared to the earlier estimate, the corrected data showed proportionally greater habitat losses for four important habitat types: Pinelands (-10.08% in the corrected land cover as compared to -5.90% in the original FWC data); upland forest (-9.46% versus 6.37%); sandhill (-13.90% versus 11.18%); and scrub (-15.52% versus -9.83%). Given the relatively small areal extent of some of these habitats, the larger percent loss estimates over the study period revealed by the corrected land cover data are cause for even greater concern by conservation planners and policymakers. Now that its utility has been demonstrated, the LCCP technique can be applied to any pair of roughly similar land cover mapping datasets provided that their original classification systems can be composed by a cross-walk into a single scheme, and that one or more ancillary data sets are available to serve in the tie-breaker role performed here by the land use data from Florida's Water Management Districts. The Soil Survey Geographic (SSURGO) and State Soil Geographic (STATSGO) soils data of the National Resource Conservation Service, the National Land Cover Dataset (NLCD) or the statewide habitat mapping of the USGS GAP Analysis Program could be adapted to provide the ancillary tie-breaker data required by the LCCP to conduct change detection between disparate land cover data sources heretofore considered too incompatible for that purpose.In Chapter 2, measures of urban sprawl, habitat loss and fragmentation in Florida were estimated using the corrected land cover data for 1987 and 2003. The Northwest and North regions of the state exhibited significantly higher indices of urban sprawl, habitat loss and habitat fragmentation via application of the Moran's I statistic. Reducing urban sprawl and habitat fragmentation spatial metrics to simple ordination variables through the use of non-metric multidimensional scaling produced new measures of urban sprawl and habitat fragmentation that correlated strongly with the original FRAGSTATS metrics, but could be more easily mapped and interpreted. Urban and Habitat ordination metrics were each spatially autocorrelated (Local Moran's I and K-means grouping analyses) but not correlated to each other using the Procrustes analysis PROTEST statistic (m2 = 0.952, p = 0.061). In contrast, individual urban sprawl metrics (CA, NP, LPI, ED, SHAPE_AM and DCAD) correlated with habitat fragmentation. NP and DCAD appeared to be particularly useful in predicting fragmentation, and county governments should take measures to reduce establishment of new urban patches to minimize NP and DCAD.Chapter 3 explored the relationship between environmental outcomes in habitat loss and fragmentation and the quality of county local government comprehensive plans. The use of NMS analysis provided a powerful technique for capturing the intrinsic variability of the Local Government Comprehensive Plan (LGCP) plan scoring systems of Brody (2003) and Pannozzo (2013) into a pair of variables each that could be used to explore associations with metrics of urban sprawl, habitat fragmentation and other county characteristics that influence urban growth and development. The geographic distribution of LGCP plan quality favored coastal counties with higher quality plans over inland counties, and there was some evidence that plans in Central and South regions of Peninsular Florida were superior to those in the North and Northwest Panhandle regions. Key factors in plan quality, specifically Coordination and Management, were strongly associated with urban sprawl or habitat fragmentation outcomes. The resources available to counties in the form of tax revenues, whether the county possessed a rural or urban economy, and the county's political makeup also appeared related to LGCP plan quality, urban sprawl or habitat fragmentation outcomes. More research will be needed to elucidate the specific causal mechanisms behind the implementation of local government planning that resulted in the observed environmental outcomes. ; 2014-12-01 ; Ph.D. ; Sciences, Biology ; Doctoral ; This record was generated from author submitted information.
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Israel's war in Gaza – and Washington's support for it -- is inflicting serious damage on U.S. standing across the Arab world, according to a representative poll of 16 Arab countries released Thursday by the Arab Center Washington DC.An aggregate average of 82% of respondents across the region described the U.S. response to the war as "very bad," while another 12% described it as "bad." And an aggregate of 72% of respondents said that U.S. policy toward the war in Gaza will harm Washington's "image" in the region either "somewhat" (22%) or "very much" (50%). Similar percentages said it will harm U.S. "interests" in the region as well. An aggregate of 76% said their views on U.S. policy in the Arab world had "become more negative" since the war began.An aggregate average of more than half of respondents (51%) also said they regard the United States as constituting "the biggest threat to the peace and stability of the region" – up from the 39% who named the U.S. as the greatest threat in an Arab Center poll in 2022. One in four respondents (26%) described Israel as the region's greatest threat.The poll, which queried 8,000 respondents across the 16 countries that together account for 95% of the Arab region's total population, was conducted by telephone between December 12 and January 5; that is, during the third month of Israel's campaign in Gaza. The countries included Saudi Arabia, Oman, Kuwait, Yemen, and Qatar in the Persian Gulf sub-region; Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, and the Palestinian West Bank across the Levant and Mesopotamia; and Mauritania, Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, and Sudan in North Africa. Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, and Syria were not included.The aggregate regional opinions were calculated as an average of the results of the 16 surveyed countries, with each country given the same weight in order to ensure that the opinions of respondents in the most populous countries did not dominate the survey's findings.The results of the poll, which was carried out in cooperation with the Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies in Doha, Qatar, should cause some alarm in Washington, according to Shibley Telhami, a professor at the University of Maryland. "This is a historic moment in some very important ways," Telhami said at an event presenting the survey findings at the National Press Club on Thursday. "The scale of what we have seen and the role the U.S. has played in this deeply painful crisis has been so large and been perceived to be so large that it's going to leave an imprint on the consciousness of a generation in the region that is going to outlast this administration and outlast this crisis."Respondents believed Washington to be the key component enabling Israel to carry out its war on Gaza, in which more than 27,000 people, mostly women and children, have reportedly been killed to date. Exactly half of the Arab public named "U.S. military and political support" as the most important factor, with an additional 15% saying it was the second most important. The "lack of decisive action" from Arab governments toward Israel, which was the second popular choice, was named by 14% of respondents as the most important factor and by 23% as the second most important. The poll also showed a notable increase of opposition in the Arab world for recognizing Israel in certain countries. An aggregate of 89% of respondents said they oppose recognition of Israel, while only four percent favored it, the lowest percentage since the question was first posed in 2011. Of particular note in that respect were responses from respondents in Saudi Arabia. Normalizing relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel has been a key goal of the Biden administration, which has been engaged in intensive negotiations with Riyadh over the terms for normalization, including Saudi demands for a ceasefire in Gaza. The poll found that the percentage of Saudi respondents who oppose the recognition of Israel has jumped from 38% the last time the question was asked (in 2022) to 68%, an increase apparently largely attributable to the Gaza war. (Twenty-nine percent of respondents in the kingdom declined to answer the question.) Opposition to normalization also rose by about ten percentage points over the year in Morocco and Sudan — both of which normalized relations with Israel in 2020 in what is known as the "Abraham Accords" — to 78% and 81%, respectively. In another blow to Biden's policy, which has repeatedly stressed its commitment to the creation of a Palestinian state alongside Israel since the Gaza War began, large majorities of respondents in each country said they did not consider Washington to be serious about following through. An aggregate average of 68% of respondents said Washington was "not at all serious" about the commitment, while another 13% said Washington was "somewhat unserious." Skepticism was particularly high in Jordan, Lebanon, and the West Bank which together house the greatest number of Palestinian refugees in the Arab world, but 77% of Saudi respondents said Washington was either "not at all serious" (62%) or "somewhat unserious" (11%). The poll also found that the Palestinian issue has resumed its place as a top priority for Arab publics as a whole. Asked whether they considered the Palestinian cause as "one for all Arabs and not the Palestinian people alone," an aggregate average of 92% of respondents chose the first option, 16 percentage points higher than when the same question was asked in 2022. In Saudi Arabia, the percentage agreeing with that view jumped from 69% to 95%. Similar large increases were found in Iraq, Egypt, and Morocco.As for views about the positions of key Arab countries toward the Gaza war, respondents were most critical of the UAE, with an aggregate average of 67% rating Abu Dhabi's position as either "very bad" (49%) or "bad" (18%). Saudi Arabia did not fare much better with an aggregate of 64% of respondents describing its position as "very bad" (44%) or "bad" (20%). Majorities also disapproved of the positions of Egypt and the Palestinian Authority.The war has also reduced the hope that there can be peace between Israel and Palestine. An aggregate of nearly 60% of respondents said that during the war they had "become certain that there will be no possibility for peace with Israel," while only 13% still believed in the possibility of peace. Ultimately, the test of whether the public's reaction to the war will be how governments in the Arab world respond, Telhami said at Thursday's event. The first evidence, he said, will be whether or not Saudi Arabia insists on the creation of a Palestinian state as part of any normalization agreement with Israel and doesn't settle for the promise of statehood at some point in the future,"That will be the real test for has this horrible crisis led to a public, so activated in the Arab world, including Saudi Arabia, that governments are just not going to do things that are gonna go against their feelings," he said.
Speeches Delivered In Other Languages. ; United Nations S/PV.8182 Security Council Seventy-third year 8182nd meeting Wednesday, 14 February 2018, 3 p.m. New York Provisional President: Mr. Alotaibi. . (Kuwait) Members: Bolivia (Plurinational State of). . Mr. Inchauste Jordán China. . Mr. Zhang Dianbin Côte d'Ivoire. . Mr. Tanoh-Boutchoue Equatorial Guinea. . Mr. Ndong Mba Ethiopia. . Ms. Guadey France. . Mrs. Gueguen Kazakhstan. . Mr. Umarov Netherlands. . Mrs. Gregoire Van Haaren Peru. . Mr. Meza-Cuadra Poland. . Ms. Wronecka Russian Federation. . Mr. Polyanskiy Sweden . Mr. Skoog United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland . Mr. Clay United States of America. . Ms. Tachco Agenda The situation in Guinea-Bissau Report of the Secretary-General on developments in Guinea-Bissau and the activities of the United Nations Integrated Peacebuilding Office in Guinea-Bissau (S/2018/110) This record contains the text of speeches delivered in English and of the translation of speeches delivered in other languages. The final text will be printed in the Official Records of the Security Council. Corrections should be submitted to the original languages only. They should be incorporated in a copy of the record and sent under the signature of a member of the delegation concerned to the Chief of the Verbatim Reporting Service, room U-0506 (verbatimrecords@un.org). Corrected records will be reissued electronically on the Official Document System of the United Nations (http://documents.un.org). 18-04195 (E) *1804195* S/PV.8182 The situation in Guinea-Bissau 14/02/2018 2/20 18-04195 The meeting was called to order at 3.10 p.m. Adoption of the agenda The agenda was adopted. The situation in Guinea-Bissau Report of the Secretary-General on developments in Guinea-Bissau and the activities of the United Nations Integrated Peacebuilding Office in Guinea-Bissau (S/2018/110) The President (spoke in Arabic): In accordance with rule 37 of the Council's provisional rules of procedure, I invite the representatives of Guinea-Bissau and Togo to participate in this meeting. In accordance with rule 39 of the Council's provisional rules of procedure, I invite the following briefers to participate in the meeting: Mr. Modibo Touré, Special Representative of the Secretary-General and Head of the United Nations Integrated Peacebuilding Office in Guinea-Bissau, and His Excellency Mr. Mauro Vieira, Permanent Representative of Brazil to the United Nations, in his capacity as Chair of the Guinea- Bissau configuration of the Peacebuilding Commission. Mr. Touré is joining the meeting via video-teleconference from Bissau. The Security Council will now begin its consideration of the item on its agenda. I wish to draw the attention of Council members to document S/2018/110, which contains the report of the Secretary-General on developments in Guinea-Bissau and the activities of the United Nations Integrated Peacebuilding Office in Guinea-Bissau. I now give the floor to Mr. Touré. Mr. Touré: I thank the Security Council for this opportunity to introduce the report of the Secretary- General (S/2018/110) on the situation in Guinea-Bissau and the activities of the United Nations Integrated Peacebuilding Office in Guinea-Bissau (UNIOGBIS). As the report already presents a detailed outline of recent events in Guinea-Bissau, my intervention will focus on updating the Council on political developments since its issuance, while analysing present challenges and making proposals for the way forward. This briefing takes place against the backdrop of a rapidly evolving political situation in Guinea-Bissau. Over the past several weeks, a series of key events have occurred with important ramifications. At the country level, President José Mário Vaz dismissed former Prime Minister Umaro Sissoco Embaló and replaced him with Mr. Artur Da Silva. The African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC) finally held its party congress despite attempts by national authorities to block it, and re-elected Domingos Simões Pereira as its leader. At the regional level, on 4 February, the Authority of Heads of State and Government of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), pursuant to its decision of 27 January, imposed targeted sanctions on 19 individuals deemed to be obstructing the implementation of the Conakry Agreement. Those individuals and their family members are subject to travel bans and assets freeze. They have also been suspended from ECOWAS activities. The ECOWAS Authority also requested the African Union (AU), the Community of Portuguese-speaking Countries, the European Union, the United Nations and other partners to support and facilitate the enforcement of the sanctions. Since the imposition of the sanctions, the reaction of national stakeholders has been mixed. Those upon whom the sanctions were imposed have described them as unsubstantiated and unjust, while those in favour of the sanctions have characterized them as a necessary measure to safeguard the country's democratic course. Meanwhile, national reactions to the appointment of Mr. Artur Da Silva as the new Prime Minister have been generally consistent. On 31 January, the PAIGC issued a statement denouncing Mr. Da Silva's appointment as not being in conformity with the Conakry Agreement. Last week, the Party for Social Renewal, the second largest party in Parliament, and the group of 15 dissident parliamentarians of the PAIGC also issued public statements stressing that they would participate only in a Government formed under a consensual Prime Minister, in strict compliance with the Conakry Agreement. Thus far, the Prime Minister's efforts to consult with political parties represented in the National Assembly on the formation of an inclusive Government have not borne fruit. Under my leadership, the group of five regional and international partners, comprised of representatives of the African Union, the Community of Portuguese-speaking Countries, ECOWAS, the European Union and the United Nations, has continued 14/02/2018 The situation in Guinea-Bissau S/PV.8182 18-04195 3/20 to harmonize efforts and messaging at opportune moments with the aim of creating a stable and enabling environment for dialogue among political leaders. So far this year, I have convened three meetings of the group. My efforts, together with those of the partners, have focused on engaging national authorities and key political stakeholders in Guinea-Bissau to defuse escalating tensions, encourage political dialogue in order to ease the political gridlock, call for the protection and respect for the human rights of Bissau-Guinean citizens, and urge all aggrieved stakeholders to pursue their grievances through legal and constitutional means. Furthermore, under my direction, UNIOGBIS continues to play a central role in supporting and facilitating the regional mediation efforts of ECOWAS by, inter alia, ensuring the participation of Bissau- Guinean stakeholders at the ECOWAS Summit in Abuja in December 2017, providing substantive and logistical support for the ECOWAS high-level delegations during their missions to Bissau and regularly sensitizing regional leaders to ongoing political developments within the country, while encouraging them to exert their influence on protagonists in order to reach compromises. The absence of a functioning and stable Government for more than three years has limited the ability of UNIOGBIS to effectively and sustainably implement some of its mandated tasks. As recommended by the strategic review mission headed by the Department of Political Affairs in 2016 and endorsed by the Council last year, I have streamlined the UNIOGBIS leadership and structure to promote better integration and complementarity with the United Nations country team and other international partners, while boosting the Mission's political capacities, which has enabled me to exercise my good offices more effectively at the national level. Those changes have also assisted the broader United Nations system in Guinea-Bissau in delivering more focused and integrated peacebuilding support to national authorities and civil society, including women and youth. In this regard, the support provided by the Peacebuilding Fund has been critical. Going forward, UNIOGBIS will need to focus its energies on supporting national leaders in their efforts to appoint an acceptable Prime Minister, establish an inclusive Government, organize and conduct timely elections, and implement the priority reforms outlined in the Conakry Agreement and the ECOWAS road map. Until the completion of the electoral cycle in 2019, Guinea-Bissau remains more than ever a country that requires a dedicated United Nations presence to prevent a further deterioration in the political and security situation at the national level and avoid any negative consequences in the subregion. In this context, my good offices, political facilitation, advocacy and mediation roles, alongside my efforts aimed at promoting respect for human rights and the rule of law and at carrying out integrated peacebuilding support, will continue to be critical. As the Secretary-General has indicated in his report, it is vital that the United Nations remain engaged in peacebuilding efforts in the country while supporting ECOWAS involvement in resolving the political crisis for at least one more year. The Secretary-General has expressed his intention to authorize an assessment of the current mission at the end of that period and to present options to the Security Council for a possible reconfiguration of United Nations presence in the country. It is my hope that the Council will give favourable consideration to this recommendation. The African Union Peace and Security Council (AUPSC), through its communiqué of 13 February, has fully endorsed the measures taken by ECOWAS on 4 February, including the application of sanctions against political obstructionists. It has also requested the African Union Commission to coordinate with the ECOWAS Commission to ensure the effective implementation of these measures. Moreover, it has requested that the Security Council endorse the AUPSC communiqué that endorsed the ECOWAS decision. At this critical juncture, it would be important for the Security Council to continue to reaffirm the centrality of the Conakry Agreement and reiterate its full support for ECOWAS in its mediation efforts and for the measures that it has taken against political stakeholders deemed to be obstructing the resolution of the political crisis. I would further seek the Council's support in underscoring the importance of urgently organizing and holding legislative elections within the constitutionally mandated timeline. Lastly, throughout the past year, the presence of the ECOWAS Mission in Guinea-Bissau (ECOMIB) has consistently acted as a stabilizing factor in the country. I would therefore call on members of the Council and international donors to support the continued presence of ECOMIB through to the holding of a presidential election in 2019, including by advocating for the renewal S/PV.8182 The situation in Guinea-Bissau 14/02/2018 4/20 18-04195 of its mandate and the provision of the financial support needed to maintain its deployment. I would like to express my gratitude to the Council for its continued interest in promoting peace and stability in Guinea-Bissau. I would also like to commend ECOWAS and its current Chair, President Faure Gnassingbé of Togo, and the ECOWAS Mediator for Guinea-Bissau, President Alpha Condé of Guinea, for their tireless mediation efforts. Finally, I would like to express appreciation to all multilateral and bilateral partners, especially to the AU, the Community of Portuguese-speaking Countries and the European Union for their commitment to promoting peace and prosperity in Guinea-Bissau. After several years of long-term investment in the stability of Guinea- Bissau, it is time to consolidate and reap the dividends of our concerted efforts. It is vital that we accompany this process to its completion. The President (spoke in Arabic): I thank Mr. Touré for his briefing. I now give the floor to Mr. Vieira. Mr. Vieira (Brazil): I would like to thank you, Mr. President, for the invitation to address the Security Council in my capacity as Chair of the Guinea-Bissau configuration of the Peacebuilding Commission (PBC). Since my last briefing to the Security Council, on 24 August last year (see S/PV.8031), there have been several important developments in the country. The situation in Guinea-Bissau is rapidly evolving, and the PBC is following it closely. At the most recent Summit of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), held in Abuja on 16 December, the Heads of State and Government gave a 30-day deadline for political actors of Guinea-Bissau to implement the Conakry Agreement. The situation was discussed again by the Assembly of Heads of State and Government of the African Union, held in Addis Ababa on 27 January, in the context of its thirtieth ordinary session. After 15 months as Head of Government, Prime Minister Umaro Sissoco Embaló tendered his resignation to President José Mário Vaz, who accepted it on 16 January. On 31 January, Artur Da Silva took office as the new Prime Minister. The Minister of Foreign Affairs of Togo, Robert Dussey, led two ECOWAS missions to Bissau this year. On 1 February, the ECOWAS mission issued a final communiqué stating that the nomination of a Prime Minister by consensus, as determined by the Conakry Agreement, had not taken place and that the ECOWAS Commission would start applying sanctions against those who create obstacles to a political solution. On 4 February, ECOWAS issued a decision listing 19 names that will be subject to sanctions, consisting of the exclusion from the activities of the community, a travel ban, and the freezing of assets of the sanctioned persons and their families. The Guinea-Bissau configuration is actively engaged in following the situation in Guinea-Bissau and in providing support for the country through different initiatives. I am also in permanent contact with the Brazilian Ambassador in Bissau, who maintains excellent relations with national authorities, political actors and United Nations representatives. I would remind Council members that Brazil was one of the first countries to recognize Guinea-Bissau in 1974. In that same year we opened an embassy in Bissau. In 2017, I organized a working breakfast with the members of the PBC and four ambassador-level meetings of the Guinea-Bissau configuration. We issued three press statements last year on the situation in the country. I also briefed the Security Council on two occasions, on 14 February (see S/PV. 7883) and on 24 August. Between 25 and 28 July 2017, I conducted my first visit to Bissau in my capacity as Chair of the Guinea-Bissau configuration. I met many political actors, including President José Mário Vaz, then-Prime Minister Sissoco, a number of ministers, members of all parties in the Parliament, and representatives of the United Nations. On my return, I stopped in Lisbon, where I met with the Executive Secretary of the Community of Portuguese-speaking Countries, Ms. Maria do Carmo Silveira. On 15 December 2017, the Peacebuilding Fund (PBF) approved six new projects for Guinea-Bissau, totalling $7 million, to be implemented between January 2018 and June 2019. These projects are designed to help stabilize the country by providing support to the media and the justice sector, as well as support for national reconciliation efforts and the participation of young people and women in peacebuilding and in politics. The Guinea-Bissau configuration of the PBC discussed and 14/02/2018 The situation in Guinea-Bissau S/PV.8182 18-04195 5/20 supported these projects in a meeting held in November last year. The PBC will continue to support Guinea-Bissau not only through the PBF, but also through consultations with different partners, including the World Bank and other international financial institutions. In this context, I am planning a visit to Washington in the coming weeks in order to talk to representatives of the World Bank about possibilities for cooperation with Guinea-Bissau. On Monday, 12 February, I convened a meeting of the Guinea-Bissau configuration of the PBC to discuss the most recent developments in the country. On that occasion, we heard a briefing from the Under- Secretary-General for Political Affairs and Head of the Department of Political Affairs, Mr. Jeffrey Feltman. I would like to thank Under-Secretary-General Feltman for his presence there. It was a positive sign of engagement and trust in the role of the PBC. It also showed his commitment to contributing to a solution to the current impasse in Guinea-Bissau. During that meeting, the participants had the opportunity to discuss the recent developments in the country, including the decision of ECOWAS to impose sanctions. They underlined the need for dialogue and mentioned the role of the region, including the importance of the implementation of the Conakry Agreement. Member States also commended the work of the PBF in Guinea-Bissau. Many participants stressed the relevance of respecting the constitutional framework in organizing elections. Member States welcomed the non-involvement of the armed forces in the political crisis. Many delegations mentioned the positive presence of the ECOWAS Mission in Guinea- Bissau (ECOMIB). Delegations also supported the renewal of the mandate of the United Nations Integrated Peacebuilding Office in Guinea-Bissau (UNIOGBIS), which is expected to happen by the end of this month, and underlined the importance of the good offices of the Special Representative of the Secretary-General, Mr. Modibo Touré. Finally, I also would like to inform the Council that it is my intention to visit Guinea-Bissau in the coming months to consult with a broad range of stakeholders on how the PBC can support peacebuilding efforts in the country and help the political actors find a solution to the current impasse. The exact date of the visit will depend on developments on the ground and will be scheduled in consultation with local authorities. I would like to recall that Brazil is currently the Chair of the Community of Portuguese-speaking Countries (CPLP). As was done when I previously briefed the Council, the CPLP has endorsed my remarks. I would like to conclude my statement by reaffirming that the PBC will continue to make every effort to support Guinea-Bissau and I would like to outline the following recommendations in that regard. I reiterate the support of the configuration for the Bissau six-point road map and the Conakry Agreement as the framework for the resolution of the crisis. I call upon the authorities of Guinea-Bissau and key political actors to show leadership and determination by engaging in actions that would lead to the implementation of those agreements. I take note of the efforts of the region to resolve the political impasse in the country. I stress the importance of holding free and fair elections, in accordance with the Constitution of Guinea- Bissau, and call upon the international community to support that process. I underline the importance of renewing the mandate of UNIOGBIS for another year, as recommended by the Secretary-General. I also recognize the effective, preventive and deterrent role of ECOMIB. Finally, I would like to commend the Special Representative of the Secretary-General, Mr. Modibo Touré, for his efforts to help ensure an enabling political environment in the country. The President (spoke in Arabic): I thank Ambassador Vieira for his briefing. I now give the floor to those Council members who wish to make statements. Mr. Tanoh-Boutchoue (Côte d'Ivoire) (spoke in French): I would like to begin my statement by thanking the Special Representative of the Secretary- General, Mr. Modibo Touré, for his insightful briefing on the situation in Guinea-Bissau and the activities of the United Nations Integrated Peacebuilding Office in Guinea-Bissau. I will focus my statement on two main points: the implementation of the Conakry Agreement by the Guinea-Bissau signatories and the activities of the United Nations Integrated Peacebuilding Office in Guinea-Bissau. S/PV.8182 The situation in Guinea-Bissau 14/02/2018 6/20 18-04195 Guinea-Bissau is going through a new phase in the serious and deep political and institutional crisis of recent years. My country and West Africa are concerned about this situation, which is characterized by a political impasse and requires the Council to act with greater firmness alongside the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and the African Union to bring the political actors of Guinea-Bissau to honour their commitments. Indeed, despite the signing on 14 October 2016 of the Conakry Agreement, which was supposed to favour the appointment of a consensus Prime Minister and the establishment of an inclusive Government, the country is again without a Government and confronted by a blockage of Parliament and a deep lack of trust between the President of the Republic and his party, the African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde. The stalemate heightens raises concerns not only of a detrimental delay in the electoral calendar, which calls for the holding of legislative elections in May 2018 and presidential elections in 2019, but also of the exacerbation of political tensions and the growth of the criminal economy linked to drug trafficking. My country welcomes the ongoing efforts of ECOWAS to definitively resolve the crisis in Guinea-Bissau, in strict compliance with the communal arrangements and constitutional framework of the country. The current deadlock in Guinea-Bissau is the culmination of a prolonged deterioration of the political situation and the manifest lack of will on the part of the political actors to commit themselves to a consensual settlement of the crisis, despite the appeals and efforts of ECOWAS. Côte d'Ivoire calls on the parties to implement the Conakry Agreement in good faith and without delay. My delegation once again commends ECOWAS for its leadership and the ongoing commitment of its leaders, the Chairperson of the ECOWAS Authority, President Faure Gnassingbé of Togo, and the ECOWAS Mediator for Guinea-Bissau, President Alpha Condé of Guinea, in the quest for a solution to the political impasse in Guinea-Bissau. Côte d'Ivoire also commends the ECOWAS Mission in Guinea-Bissau for its invaluable contribution to stability in the country. ECOWAS, after a lengthy process of futile warnings, decided to adopt individual sanctions against 19 persons considered to be hostile to the process of ending the crisis in Guinea-Bissau. The sanctions are a strong signal of the resolve of ECOWAS to bring the country out of a crisis that has persisted too long. Those measures — which specifically involve the suspension of the participation in the activities of ECOWAS of all persons concerned, a travel ban on travel, the denial of visas to them and their families, and the freezing of their financial assets — must be applied with utmost rigour. The sanctions, I recall, are based on the Supplementary Act of 17 February 2012, which imposes sanctions on Member States that fail to honour their obligations vis-à-vis ECOWAS, and article 45 of the Protocol on Democracy and Good Governance. My country congratulates ECOWAS on taking those courageous measures, which will serve as a wake-up call to the Guinea-Bissau political class, and looks forward to their effective endorsement by the African Union. Côte d'Ivoire invites the Council to fully support ECOWAS in the interests of peace and national cohesion in Guinea-Bissau. To that end, my country calls on the Security Council to adopt by consensus the draft resolution on the renewal of the mandate of the United Nations Integrated Peacebuilding Office in Guinea-Bissau, which also requires the endorsement of those sanctions. Furthermore, my delegation urges the Community of Portuguese-speaking Countries (CPLP), the European Union and the United Nations to also support the efforts of ECOWAS to effectively implement measures that seek to ensure that the Conakry Agreement be upheld. Institutional and political stability, peace and security in Guinea-Bissau depend primarily on the people of Guinea-Bissau themselves. To achieve that, we call on them to take ownership of the Conakry Agreement. Without the involvement of the parties themselves, the prospects for finding a solution to the crisis and for restoring lasting peace to Guinea-Bissau will remain illusory. With regard to the activities of the United Nations Integrated Peacebuilding Office in Guinea-Bissau, my delegation welcomes the various initiatives to support the political dialogue and the national reconciliation process. Furthermore, we encourage ongoing consultations in order to make progress on security sector reform and to meet the needs of the peacebuilding mechanism under way in Guinea-Bissau. My delegation thanks the Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Guinea-Bissau for his efforts in mediation, promoting the rule of law and building the capacity of the Guinea-Bissau institutions. Côte d'Ivoire encourages its international partners, in 14/02/2018 The situation in Guinea-Bissau S/PV.8182 18-04195 7/20 particular the United Nations, the African Union, the European Union, the CPLP and ECOWAS, to cooperate more closely with regard to their work on the ground to ensure greater effectiveness. My country also welcomes the strong involvement of Guinea-Bissau women in the political process, and in particular their role in facilitating dialogue between the parties. With regard to the renewal of the mandate of the United Nations Integrated Peacebuilding Office in Guinea-Bissau, I would like to inform the members of the Council that Côte d'Ivoire will soon submit a draft resolution for adoption on that issue. At the same time, if it is acceptable to all members of the Council, a draft press statement will also be submitted for adoption. My country reiterates its appeal to all stakeholders in the crisis in Guinea-Bissau to participate fully in the efforts of the international community, in particular of ECOWAS, to promote the comprehensive implementation of the Conakry Agreement, which guarantees a way out of the political impasse that the country has long suffered. I would like to finish by thanking Ambassador Mauro Vieira of Brazil, Chair of the Guinea-Bissau configuration of the Peacebuilding Commission, for all the information that he has kindly provided to the Council. Ms. Tachco (United States of America): I wish to thank Mr. Touré, Special Representative of the Secretary-General, for his briefing and Ambassador Vieira not only for his briefing but also for his leadership of the Guinea-Bissau configuration of the Peacebuilding Commission. Recently, the Security Council has witnessed significant success in West Africa in places that have experienced years or even decades of violence and tragedy. Such success includes the first democratic transfer of power in Liberia in more than 70 years and the continued consolidation of democracy in The Gambia, as well as strong economic growth in countries across the region. However, there remain many serious and profound challenges, such as the terrorist threat posed by Boko Haram and the Islamic State in West Africa, elections and reform challenges facing countries with upcoming democratic transition, and humanitarian crises and displacement, all of which merit the continued attention of the Security Council. Given the urgency and magnitude of such problems, the United States believes that a self-inflicted 30-month political impasse, such as that in Guinea-Bissau, is unacceptable. For too long we have gathered to hear updates on fits and starts of political progress that eventually fade to obstruction and obfuscation from the country's leadership. The United States is profoundly disappointed by the decision of President Vaz to ignore the Conakry Agreement by failing to appoint a consensus Prime Minister and to create an inclusive Government. President Vaz must take urgent steps towards a unity Government that will pave the way for peaceful legislative elections in May. The people of Guinea-Bissau are understandably frustrated at the failure of their Government to make progress on the implementation of the Agreement. They deserve better. Time is running out. We have witnessed rising tension. Political gatherings in Bissau have provoked clashes as the people of Guinea- Bissau publicly express their frustration at the skeletal political process. Those clashes led to a crackdown by the Guinea-Bissau leadership. The Government must respect the people's right to peaceful expression and protect that right. On 4 February, the Economic Community of West African States took the ambitious step of sanctioning 19 spoilers of the Conakry Agreement, including their family members. The United States applauds such efforts to hold those in power accountable and to compel them towards finally doing what is right for the people of Guinea-Bissau. We also applaud the renewal of the mandate of the ECOWAS Mission in Guinea- Bissau and encourage the Guinea-Bissau military to continue its political non-interference, while playing its constitutional role. For years, the international community and the United Nations have put resources into Guinea-Bissau to do important things for the benefit of its people. However, with a Government at an impasse, important issues such as security sector reform and combating transnational organized crime, narcotics and human trafficking cannot be adequately addressed. That is unacceptable. As Ambassador Haley noted in the peacekeeping context, the United Nations cannot operate effectively in environments with uncooperative Governments. That also applies to political missions such as the United Nations Integrated Peacebuilding Office in Guinea- S/PV.8182 The situation in Guinea-Bissau 14/02/2018 8/20 18-04195 Bissau (UNIOGBIS). For UNIOGBIS to continue on that path would not be the continuation of a partnership with a willing Government but would simply enable its obstruction. Elections must take place on time and will require support. However, first, the Government must first end the impasse to convince its partners that international support will build on established political progress and a willingness to overcome differences to enable the Government to function again. In conclusion, we once again draw attention to the ordinary people of Guinea-Bissau who, for the better part of their lives, have not known the stability of sustainable democratic governance. The Security Council must keep them in mind as we take steps to put pressure on leaders to abandon their self-serving wilfulness and to take action to better the lives of their people. They should know that our patience has now run out. Ms. Guadey (Ethiopia): I wish to thank Mr. Modibo Touré, Special Representative of the Secretary- General, for his briefing on the latest developments in Guinea-Bissau and the activities of the United Nations Integrated Peacebuilding Office in Guinea-Bissau (UNIOGBIS). I would also like to express appreciation to Ambassador Mauro Vieira in his capacity as Chair of the Guinea-Bissau configuration of the Peacebuilding Commission (PBC) for his remarks. The continued political stand-off and institutional paralysis in Guinea-Bissau remain a source of serious concern. The consequent socioeconomic difficulties over the past two years have impacted the people of Guinea-Bissau and will eventually undermine the peace and stability of the country. We appreciate the important role of the PBC and welcome the approval of useful projects to be financed under the Immediate Response Facility of the Peacebuilding Fund to the amount of $7.3 million. Such projects will certainly contribute to easing the socioeconomic difficulties of women and young people, as well as to promoting stability. The centrality of the Conakry Agreement to sustaining peace, security and development in Guinea- Bissau cannot be overemphasized. We reiterate our call for all stakeholders in Guinea-Bissau to respect and to comply with the Agreement in addressing their differences and the challenges facing their country. We urge them to create conditions for the holding of legislative and presidential elections in 2018 and 2019, respectively. All parties should also refrain from actions or statements that could escalate tensions and incite violence. It is indeed vital that the security and armed forces of Guinea-Bissau continue to uphold the country's Constitution and desist from interfering in the political and institutional crisis. Those who continue to obstruct the implementation of the agreement must be given clear signals that their actions will not be tolerated. In that regard, we commend the role of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and the high-level delegation it dispatched to Guinea-Bissau two weeks ago. We support its decision on restoring democratic governance and ensuring respect for the rule of law in Guinea Bissau, as endorsed by the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council communiqué issued today. The Council should reinforce the decision by ECOWAS and the African Union and convey a clear and united message to all the parties in this regard. We believe the concerted efforts by ECOWAS, the African Union, the United Nations and other relevant partners continues to be indispensable to finding a durable solution to the political crisis in Guinea-Bissau. We express our support to UNIOGBIS for its continued provision of necessary support to Guinea- Bissau, with the objective of resolving the current political impasse and creating an environment for of dialogue among all of the country's actors. Accordingly, we fully agree with the recommendation of the Secretary General that the current UNIOGBIS mandate be extended for another year, until 28 February 2019. Finally, we echo the appeal of the AU Peace and Security Council for financial support towards the continuation of the mandate of the ECOWAS Mission in Guinea-Bissau — whose mandate has been extended to 31 March — until the necessary training of the national security forces of Guinea-Bissau is completed. I wish to conclude by supporting the draft press statement proposed by Côte d'Ivoire, and express our readiness to work closely on the draft resolution that will renew the UNIOGBIS mandate. Mrs. Gueguen (France) (spoke in French): I thank Mr. Modibo Touré, Special Representative of the Secretary-General and Head of the United Nations Integrated Peacebuilding Office in Guinea-Bissau, for his clear and precise briefing, which reminds us of just how critical this point is for Guinea-Bissau. I also thank Ambassador Mauro Vieira for his efforts as Chair of the Guinea-Bissau configuration of the Peacebuilding 14/02/2018 The situation in Guinea-Bissau S/PV.8182 18-04195 9/20 Commission and for his insistent appeal for support to regional initiatives and for respect for the electoral cycle in Guinea-Bissau. France is concerned about the non-implementation of the Conakry Agreement since October 2016. The Agreement, which provides for the appointment of a consensus Prime Minister, has remained a dead letter, even though it provides a plan to resolve the conflict. This political impasse has consequences on the ground. There have been several clashes between the police and opposition political parties. Respect for human rights is also not assured in Guinea-Bissau. The latest developments on the ground show that the authorities of Guinea-Bissau no longer hesitate to limit the freedom of assembly and the right to protest. The establishment of a robust compliance framework with regard to respect for public freedoms is an essential precondition to the resolution of the crisis in Guinea-Bissau. We therefore call upon the international community to be particularly vigilant in that regard. Due to the risk of a deterioration in the political and security situation, it is high time for all parties to honour their commitments to reach national consensus, all the more so because the window of opportunity is narrowing, as legislative elections are slated for this spring. In that regard, it is particularly important to ensure that the legislative and presidential time table is adhered to. I would like to emphasize three essential points with regard to the renewal at the end of the month of the madate of the United Nations Integrated Peacebuilding Office in Guinea-Bissau (UNIOGBIS). First, we must increase our support for regional initiatives. In that regard, France welcomes the ongoing efforts of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), especially the work of the ECOWAS Mission in Guinea-Bissau and the recent adoption of the sanctions list of people obstructing the implementation of the Conakry Agreement. That is an important step forward and a clear sign to the relevant local actors. We are convinced that the solution to the conflict will require consultation among local actors and the international community. In that connection, the group of five international partners based in Guinea-Bissau, which comprises the African Union, the European Union, the United Nations, ECOWAS and the Community of Portuguese-speaking Countries, provides a special coordination platform that ought to be supported. Secondly, it is crucial for the Security Council to fully assume its role in resolving the current political impasse in Guinea-Bissau. The Council should increase pressure on local actors, particularly President Vaz, and should direct the parties in Guinea-Bissau to shoulder their responsibilities. Sanctions were adopted in 2012 through resolution 2048 (2012), and additional measures could be taken in conjunction with those taken by ECOWAS. Thirdly, it is essential to renew the mandate of UNIOGBIS, which ends 28 February, and thereby signal the commitment of the United Nations to continuing to participate in the process of resolving the conflict. We should also contemplate restructuring UNIOGBIS following an assessment of the impact of its activities on the ground. It is time for the parties in Guinea-Bissau to move from words to action. Their commitments must now give way to concrete action. Mr. Meza-Cuadra (Peru) (spoke in Spanish): My delegation welcomes the holding of this meeting and thanks Mr. Modibo Touré, Special Representative of the Secretary-General and Head of the United Nations Integrated Peacebuilding Office in Guinea- Bissau, for his briefing. We also thank Ambassador Mauro Vieira for his commitment and leadership as Chair of the Guinea-Bissau configuration of the Peacebuilding Commission. Peru is monitoring with concern the situation in Guinea-Bissau. Despite efforts by the international community and regional organizations to reach a solution to the political crisis, little progress has been made in the implementation of the Conakry Agreement, concluded in October 2016. We would like to make three main points. First, Peru deems the successful holding of 2018 and 2019 elections to be crucial to achieving sustainable peace. In that regard, we are concerned about the nomination of a Prime Minister who does not enjoy consensus among all parties, as called for in the Conakry Agreement. That undermines the credibility of the Government. Additionally, four of the members of the National Electoral Commission, including its President, could not be nominated for the National Assembly, which has not convened since S/PV.8182 The situation in Guinea-Bissau 14/02/2018 10/20 18-04195 January 2016. Such conditions complicate the holding of legislative elections slated for May. That is why we believe it is necessary and urgent for all parties to resume inclusive dialogue with a view to implementing the commitments undertaken. We welcome the efforts of the Economic Community of West African States, which include imposing sanctions on those who obstruct the implementation of the Conakry Agreement, in line with regional rules and regulations. We believe that it is important to increase the participation of women and youth in the necessary dialogue and subsequent elections. That is why we highlight the efforts of the Women's Facilitation Group, which seeks to increase the participation of women in the country's political processes. Secondly, we are concerned that, despite the current relative stability, a stalled political process could lead to renewed violence and rampant crime, especially considering that the country is vulnerable to threats such as terrorism, organized crime and human trafficking. In that connection, we highlight the launching of the Network of National Human Rights Defenders. As the Secretary-General noted in his report (S/2018/110), reform is needed in this area, including strengthening the armed forces and the professionalization of the police. Similarly, we call for full respect for the fundamental right to freedom of expression in Guinea-Bissau. Thirdly, with regard to socioeconomic development, we would like to highlight the fact that, although the World Bank has reported economic growth of 5 per cent over the past year, it should be borne in mind that such growth is primarily attributed to the country's main exports being sold at a higher price on the international market. Nonetheless, a country whose poverty rate is approximately 70 per cent is socially and economically vulnerable. That is why we believe that peacekeeping and peacebuilding require greater investment in social development, and in particular in Peacebuilding Fund projects aimed at empowering women and young people, promoting national reconciliation and strengthening the judiciary. We underscore the importance of ensuring the predictability and stability of the Fund's financing. We also believe that it is important that the activities promoted by the Peacebuilding Fund be coordinated with the United Nations Integrated Peacebuilding Office in Guinea-Bissau (UNIOGBIS) and the United Nations country team. In conclusion, we support the renewal of the UNIOGBIS mandate for an additional year, in line with the recommendation of the Secretary-General. We thank the Economic Community of West African States, the African Union, the Community of Portuguese-speaking Countries, the European Union and other international actors committed to assisting Guinea-Bissau for their valuable efforts. Mr. Ndong Mba (Equatorial Guinea) (spoke in Spanish): At the outset, on behalf of the Republic of Equatorial Guinea, let me thank the Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Guinea- Bissau and Head of Mission for the United Nations Integrated Peacebuilding Office in Guinea-Bissau (UNOGBIS), Mr. Modibo Touré, and his team for the detailed and important briefing on the situation in Guinea-Bissau. We also thank Mr. Mauro Vieira, Permanent Representative of Brazil to the United Nations, in his capacity as Chair of the Guinea-Bissau configuration of the Peacebuilding Commission, for his briefing, in which he underscored the configuration's commitment to the various initiatives in Guinea-Bissau. The Republic of Equatorial Guinea has followed very closely and with great interest the developments in the political and institutional crisis in Guinea-Bissau. It has paid even closer attention since the country joined the Community of Portuguese-speaking Countries (CPLP) in 2014, and now that Equatorial Guinea chairs the Committee established pursuant to resolution 2048 (2012), concerning Guinea-Bissau. In my capacity as Chair of the 2048 Committee, I would like to voice our concern about the deadlock in the peace process in Guinea-Bissau, which is hindering the country's national reform programme, thereby threatening to undermine progress in the country since constitutional order was restored in 2014. Equatorial Guinea lauds the commitment and considerable effort made, as well as the human and financial resources made available by international multilateral partners, in particular the Guinea- Bissau group of five, comprising the African Union, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), the CPLP, the European Union and the United Nations. Undoubtedly, the synergy among international actors with regard to the issue in Guinea-Bissau attests to the desire and willingness of the international community to find a peaceful and 14/02/2018 The situation in Guinea-Bissau S/PV.8182 18-04195 11/20 consensus-based solution in the interests of Guinea- Bissau. The Conakry Agreement must continue to be the fundamental reference for national political actors. The Agreement not only outlines the appointment of a Prime Minister who is trusted by the President of the Republic, but whose appointment is the result of consensus among all national stakeholders. The Republic of Equatorial Guinea has taken note of the rejection of the appointment of Mr. Augusto Antonio Artur Da Silva by ECOWAS and the main political actors in Guinea-Bissau, in particular of the two main political parties — the Partido Africano da Independência da Guiné e Cabo Verde and the Partido para a Renovação Social. Given the lack of consensus surrounding the appointment of the Prime Minister, the Republic of Equatorial Guinea calls upon all political actors in the Republic of Guinea-Bissau, including the President of the Republic, as well as the leaders of the two main political parties, to work together to form an inclusive Government that would create the right conditions ahead of upcoming legislative elections to be held later this year, and presidential elections in 2019. The Republic of Equatorial Guinea supports the electoral calendar as outlined in the country's Constitution. That is why the Republic of Equatorial Guinea believes that an international support mechanism for the electoral process should be put in place for the purpose of updating the electoral rolls and assisting the Independent National Electoral Commission to effectively shoulder its responsibility, and with all other preparations that would allow for the holding of transparent, democratic elections whose results would put a definitive end to the political maze the country has had to navigate over the past few years. The extension of the mandate of UNIOGBIS is a key element in resolving the crisis. As announced, ECOWAS has decided to extend the mandate of the ECOWAS Mission in Guinea-Bissau until 31 March. The actions of the United Nations must be part of that undertaking. The Security Council's vote, scheduled for 27 February, must allow the Mission to be extended for a year or more, until presidential elections are held in 2019. The Republic of Equatorial Guinea believes that international partners should continue to focus primarily on mediation, good offices, dialogue and direct negotiations as the only viable paths to breaking the current political and institutional deadlock. The most recent report of the Secretary-General on the situation in Guinea-Bissau and the activities of the United Nations Integrated Peacebuilding Office in Guinea-Bissau (S/2018/110) concludes that the population's latent frustration with an uncertain political environment could foster instability and crime. Equatorial Guinea reiterates its gratitude to the defence and security forces that have chosen to adopt a neutral, republican position. Therefore, we urge all political actors in Guinea-Bissau to put the interests of the country and its people, love of State and their responsibility above all other considerations so as to create the right conditions for the holding of free, fair and transparent elections. Stability in the country must not be disassociated from economic recovery. In that regard, we welcome the support of the Guinea-Bissau configuration of the Peacebuilding Commission, through the Peacebuilding Fund, in financing various multisectoral projects. The Republic of Equatorial Guinea will take part in good offices and negotiations. Equatorial Guinea, as a member of the CPLP and Chair of the Committee established pursuant to resolution 2048 (2012), concerning Guinea- Bissau, will support and take initiatives that it believes are necessary to assist in efforts under way to find a solution to the situation in the brotherly country of Guinea-Bissau. Mr. Skoog (Sweden): I would like to begin by thanking the Special Representative of the Secretary- General, Mr. Modibo Touré, for his briefing. I commend him and his team for the valuable work being undertaken in support of the people of Guinea-Bissau. Let me also extend my thanks to the Permanent Representative of Brazil, Ambassador Mauro Vieira, in his capacity as Chair of the Guinea-Bissau configuration of the Peacebuilding Commission. As Ambassador Vieira mentioned his country's long-standing relations with Guinea-Bissau, I thought that I would take this opportunity to point out that Sweden recognized Guinea-Bissau in 1974, and we began supporting General Assembly resolution 2911 (XXVII), concerning its self-rule, in 1968. In the 1970s and 1980s, Guinea-Bissau was one of our largest development partner countries. There is therefore a deep and historic friendship between Sweden and the people of Guinea-Bissau, and it is in that spirit of friendship that we are engaging in support for Guinea- Bissau in meeting its current complex challenges. S/PV.8182 The situation in Guinea-Bissau 14/02/2018 12/20 18-04195 Moreover, we welcome the opportunity to draw upon the strategic advice of the Peacebuilding Commission and its longer-term perspective, which are essential for sustaining peace in Guinea-Bissau. The activities financed by the Peacebuilding Fund to that end are also important. An integrated approach from the United Nations family in Guinea-Bissau can contribute positively to overcoming peacebuilding challenges. Accordingly, we welcome the efforts outlined in the report of the Secretary-General (S/2018/110). We are concerned by the ongoing and increasingly protracted political crisis in Guinea-Bissau. A lack of progress in resolving the stalemate undermines peacebuilding efforts and is holding the country's social and economic development hostage. Resolving the crisis is therefore a prerequisite for the consolidation of peace in the country. The six-point Bissau road map and the Conakry Agreement remain the only legitimate way forward, and must be implemented. The appointment of a consensus Prime Minister, as stipulated in the Agreement, is essential. National leaders must live up to their commitments and meet their responsibilities. We strongly commend the efforts of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) to mediate among the parties to find a solution to the political crisis. ECOWAS is playing an essential role on behalf of the region, and we welcome its continued efforts to reach a consensual implementation of the road map and Conakry Agreement. We welcome the ECOWAS decision to impose sanctions on those impeding the Agreement's implementation. It is important that the international community fully support regional efforts in a concerted and coherent manner. In that regard, we welcome the statement issued yesterday by the African Union in support of ECOWAS, including regarding sanctions. Long-term peace and security in Guinea-Bissau will be achieved only when the root causes of the conflict are addressed. Constitutional reform, reconciliation and political dialogue, strengthening the rule of law through strong and inclusive institutions, and ensuring equal access to economic opportunities are all critical in that regard. It is also essential that all parts of society have their voices heard. In particular, ensuring the full and effective participation of women is crucial. We agree with the Secretary-General that the promotion of, and respect for, human rights is fundamental to sustaining peace and ensuring long-term stability and development in Guinea-Bissau. We echo the Secretary- General's call on national authorities to respect human rights and fundamental freedoms and to refrain from any further acts that undermine the rule of law. Let me also take a moment to welcome the military's neutrality and its posture of non-interference in the political process. Concerning the role of the United Nations Integrated Peacebuilding Office in Guinea-Bissau (UNIOGBIS), it has a crucial role to play in coordinating international efforts to support Guinea-Bissau, not least of which is supporting preparations for the holding of elections. There is a need to immediately refocus the Office's resources where they can be used most effectively, particularly with regard to resolving the political deadlock and supporting the electoral process so that it moves forward. We strongly support the Office's work to strengthen women's participation as active peacemakers in resolving the political crisis, including by encouraging women's mediation efforts. We welcome in particular that the integration of gender-sensitive perspectives into the work of UNIOGBIS and the United Nations country team has been accorded the highest priority by the United Nations in Guinea- Bissau. We look forward to hearing more about how that process is being taken forward. During the Peacebuilding Commission's meeting on Guinea-Bissau on Monday this week, all key actors, including Guinea-Bissau, expressed the view that the Secretary-General's recommendation for a one-year extension of the UNIOGBIS mandate should be authorized. A one-year extension would allow for longer-term planning and more effective support for the implementation of the Conakry Agreement and the holding of elections. The political crisis in Guinea-Bissau has gone on for far too long. It is now time to move forward with the full implementation of the Conakry Agreement and preparations for the holding of inclusive elections. The international community, together with the region, must stand ready to support the country on its path towards long-term peace and development. Mr. Clay (United Kingdom): I thank Special Representative of the Secretary-General Touré and Ambassador Vieira for their informative briefings. The situation in Guinea-Bissau is concerning. It is not the first country in the world to experience a political impasse, but it is a country that continues to emerge from the serious instability and violence 14/02/2018 The situation in Guinea-Bissau S/PV.8182 18-04195 13/20 of its recent past. The political impasse has prevented progress on reforms that are critical to addressing key conflict risks in Guinea-Bissau. The situation is only likely to become more volatile as we move towards elections. We have already seen violent confrontations between demonstrators and police, and witnessed worrying efforts to curb political freedoms. Economic growth is at risk, and a serious deterioration in stability would be deeply damaging for development and human rights. The illicit economy and transnational organized crime risk becoming further entrenched, with global implications. More broadly, instability in Guinea- Bissau would affect the wider region, which over the past year has been, for the most part, the site of positive political progress. The United Kingdom welcomes the leadership shown by the West African region, particularly through the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). It has shown persistence and patience. This is a crisis that began in 2015. It brokered the Conakry Agreement 15 months ago. It has agreed to countless communiqués and published innumerable statements. It has sent numerous high-level delegations to Guinea- Bissau, including three over the past six months alone. But those most responsible for Guinea-Bissau's crisis have responded with stubborn refusal to give ground and find compromise. Therefore, it is understandable that the region's patience has worn thin. ECOWAS has now been driven to impose sanctions against individuals deemed responsible for impeding the implementation of the Conakry Agreement. The African Union Peace and Security Council has endorsed that move. The United Kingdom supports the ECOWAS decision, and we urge the Security Council and the entire international community to remain united in support of ECOWAS efforts. We also believe that it is important to recognize the bold efforts of civil society in Guinea-Bissau to resolve the crisis. In particular, the mediation efforts launched by the Women's Facilitation Group were an encouraging initiative, and we welcome the support given to them by the United Nations. As set out in resolution 2343 (2017), political support for efforts towards the implementation of the Conakry Agreement should be a priority for the United Nations Integrated Peacebuilding Office in Guinea- Bissau. The key next step remains the appointment of a consensus Prime Minister so that preparations can proceed for legislative elections in 2018, as per the country's Constitution. As we open discussions on its renewal, the United Kingdom will focus on ensuring that the Mission's mandate responds to today's political reality on the ground, that it is realistic and that it is focused on the highest priority needs. Guinea-Bissau's people watched the country emerge from a period of instability but then found their hopes for democracy obstructed by a political knot that their own leaders tied. Support from the region and the international community to prevent the country from backsliding further will not succeed until those who tied the knot untangle it. We hope that good sense, compromise and the commitment to Guinea-Bissau's future will prevail. Ms. Wronecka (Poland): First of all, I thank Special Representative of the Secretary-General Modibo Touré and Ambassador Mauro Vieira, Permanent Representative of Brazil to the United Nations, in his capacity as Chair of the Guinea-Bissau configuration of the Peacebuilding Commission, for their useful briefings. Poland is following with growing concern the current situation in Guinea-Bissau. We support the efforts of the international community aimed at peacefully resolving the political crisis in the country. We therefore call on all political and civil society actors, regardless of their personal differences and ambitions, to engage in dialogue in a spirit of compromise. In that context, we take note that the army is not interfering in the political process. The implementation of the 2016 road map and the Conakry Agreement is crucial to maintaining peace and stability in the country. We appeal to the Guinea- Bissau authorities to complete their implementation and carry out the parliamentary elections scheduled for May in a peaceful atmosphere that guarantees political pluralism and impartiality. We think that women and young people should be included in all decision-making structures related to security sector reform, the national reconciliation process and institution-building. In this regard, we urge the Guinea-Bissau authorities to ensure the protection of human rights and fundamental freedoms, including the freedom of speech and information. Poland commends the important role of the Peacebuilding Commission in Guinea-Bissau in promoting good governance, political dialogue and national reconciliation. We also welcome the significant S/PV.8182 The situation in Guinea-Bissau 14/02/2018 14/20 18-04195 financial support of the Peacebuilding Fund (PBF) under the PBF Immediate Response Facility. Since the PBF began its activities, Poland has provided financial support to the Fund. Poland also supports the efforts of the Economic Community of West African States Mission in Guinea- Bissau (ECOMIB) as it is an important factor in reaching consensus solutions and cooperation. The decision of the ECOWAS Heads of State and Government, published on 4 February, imposing sanctions on those responsible for non-implementation of the Conakry Agreement is a step towards holding responsible those who are impeding a peaceful, consensus solution to the crisis. Due to the fragile security situation in the country, the presence of ECOMIB is most important. In this regard, we welcome the decision to extend ECOMIB's mandate until the end of March. Its role is essential, especially in view of the upcoming legislative elections. The mandate of the United Nations Integrated Peacebuilding Office in Guinea-Bissau (UNIOGBIS) expires at the end of this month. The United Nations should remain engaged in efforts towards peace in the country and support ECOWAS efforts to resolve the political crisis. In conclusion, Poland encourages all the parties in Guinea-Bissau to engage in dialogue. We also express our full support for the Special Representative of the Secretary-General, Mr. Modibo Touré. We look forward to the upcoming UNIOGBIS mandate renewal. Mr. Umarov (Kazakhstan): We commend Special Representative of the Secretary-General Modibo Touré and Ambassador Mauro Vieira for their comprehensive briefings on the situation in Guinea-Bissau, and extend our full support for their commitment to facilitating a political solution to the crisis. Kazakhstan is deeply concerned by the protracted political stalemate in the country. We join others in calling on all stakeholders to engage in an inclusive political dialogue and immediately implement the Conakry Agreement and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) road map to end the deadlock and restore institutional viability. It is therefore necessary to avoid differing interpretations of the Agreement. We commend the mediation efforts of ECOWAS, under the leadership of Presidents Faure Gnassingbé of Togo and Alpha Condé of Guinea, as well as by the other members of the group of international partner organizations on Guinea-Bissau. We have taken note of the decision of ECOWAS to impose targeted sanctions on those obstructing the implementation of the Conakry Agreement. We express hope that this decision will contribute to finding a solution to the crisis and strengthen democratic institutions and capacity-building for State organs. We welcome the extension until April of the mandate of ECOWAS Mission in Guinea-Bissau (ECOMIB), which plays a crucial role in ensuring stability in Guinea-Bissau, and urge international partners to continue supporting ECOMIB. The importance of peacebuilding, good offices and coordination efforts of the United Nations Integrated Peacebuilding Office in Guinea-Bissau cannot be underestimated. We therefore support the Secretary-General's recommendation to renew the mission's mandate for one more year. We also agree with his proposal to assess the mission, should the political impasse continue. We note the importance of holding legislative and presidential elections according to the constitutional time frame, and call on international partners to provide the necessary technical, logistical and financial support for the electoral process. The current political crisis may further fuel transnational organized crime, drug trafficking and terrorist activities. Therefore, increased national engagement and international support are critical to enhancing and extending reforms in the security, judicial and law enforcement sectors. In addition, the most effective measures must be sought to ensure the country's stability and resilience by increasing support for the education and health sectors, as well as the existing development plans, including Terra Ranka and the United Nations peacebuilding plan. In conclusion, we welcome the active engagement of the Women's Facilitation Group, and impress upon the national authorities the importance of ensuring the participation of women and young people in the political process at every stage and at all levels. Mrs. Gregoire Van Haaren (Netherlands): I would like first of all to thank the Special Representative of the Secretary-General, Mr. Modibo Touré, and the Permanent Representative of Brazil, Mr. Mauro Vieira, who spoke in his capacity as Chair of the Guinea- Bissau country configuration of the Peacebuilding Commission (PBC), for their briefings. 14/02/2018 The situation in Guinea-Bissau S/PV.8182 18-04195 15/20 For years now, Guinea-Bissau has been marked by a protracted political crisis. In a region characterized by increasing attention to and respect for the rule of law, human rights and democracy, Guinea-Bissau continues to be out of step, as indicated once again in the latest report of the Secretary-General (S/2018/110). In the light of this, the Kingdom of the Netherlands wishes to underscore the following three points with regard to the situation in Guinea-Bissau. First, the Conakry Agreement of 2016 and the six-point road map should remain the basis for a political solution in Guinea-Bissau, and its provisions should honoured. Secondly, the diplomatic and political efforts of the region through the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) deserve the steadfast support of the United Nations, and particularly the Security Council. Thirdly, the role of the United Nations Integrated Peacebuilding Office in Guinea-Bissau (UNIOGBIS) in the country at this critical juncture, with elections around the corner, is as important as ever. It is therefore imperative that its mandate be extended. First, with respect to the Conakry Agreement, almost a year and half has passed since the Agreement was concluded. The Kingdom of the Netherlands reiterates the centrality of the Agreement in peacefully resolving the current crisis, and urges the parties to abide by its contents. It is clear that an important roadblock with regard to its implementation is the appointment of a consensus Prime Minister. The need for this appointment has become increasingly urgent. With parliamentary elections on the horizon, it is imperative that these elections be held in a timely, transparent and inclusive manner. Secondly, with regard to support for ECOWAS, while the past six months were mainly characterized by the same intransigence as in previous reporting periods, concerted action and increased pressure on the part of the region, and ECOWAS in particular, could actually lead, when given the necessary support, to tangible progress in resolving the Bissau-Guinean crisis. Yesterday's decision of the African Union Peace and Security Council to support the efforts of ECOWAS is a case in point. The Secretary-General rightly observes in his report that the continuing efforts of ECOWAS to resolve the crisis are commendable. The Kingdom of the Netherlands would like to clearly point out that it supports and endorses ECOWAS mediation efforts and its imposition of sanctions. We welcome the ECOWAS unified action and believe that the presence of the ECOWAS Mission in Guinea-Bissau is vital to the stability of Guinea-Bissau. ECOWAS has shown before that, when united, it has the ability to act as the region's power broker, for example as it did in The Gambia. Like it did then, the Council should firmly support ECOWAS in taking up this role and responsibility, as it should in the case of any other regional organization in Africa that takes the lead in maintaining peace and security in the region. My third point is that ECOWAS cannot do this alone. We commend the African Union and the Community of Portuguese-speaking Countries for their collaboration with the European Union and for the support they have brought and the constructive role they play. From the report of the Secretary General, it is evident that UNIOGBIS plays a vital role in Guinea- Bissau. With legislative elections scheduled for 2018 and presidential elections in 2019, the role of UNIOGBIS is more crucial than ever. We therefore call for a renewal of its mandate for no less than one year, in addition to allowing for longer-term planning, including setting more concrete priorities for the mission and making adaptations to meet specific needs. UNIOGBIS's convening power in Bissau remains essential, as will be its role in ensuring peaceful, free and democratic elections in Guinea-Bissau, as well as a smooth post-election process. Renewing the mandate for less than 12 months would send the wrong signal. In conclusion, sustained pressure to implement the Conakry Agreement, the maximum possible support to ECOWAS's ongoing efforts and measures and UNIOGBIS's continued support to the political process will be crucial factors in ending the deadlock in Guinea- Bissau, particularly in the light of the constitutionally mandated elections. Mr. Inchauste Jordán (Plurinational State of Bolivia) (spoke in Spanish): We appreciate the report of the Secretary-General (S/2018/110) presented by Mr. Modibo Touré, Special Representative of the Secretary-General and Head of the United Nations Integrated Peacebuilding Office in Guinea-Bissau (UNIOGBIS), and the briefing by Ambassador Mauro Vieira of Brazil in his capacity as Chair of the Guinea- Bissau configuration of the Peacebuilding Commission. There has been no significant progress or visible improvement in the situation in Guinea-Bissau, where the general instability seems almost impervious to S/PV.8182 The situation in Guinea-Bissau 14/02/2018 16/20 18-04195 change, thereby jeopardizing the full implementation of the Conakry Agreement, which is unquestionably the fundamental framework for a peaceful solution to the crisis and for achieving sustainable and lasting peace there. In our view, the negative effects are likely to exacerbate matters if the parties cannot definitively condemn sectarian interests and contribute effectively to the mediation efforts and good offices of the relevant international, regional and subregional organizations. Bolivia firmly repudiates any action that could destabilize or jeopardize the ongoing dialogue and reconciliation process that has been established with the participation of all the parties concerned. We urge that the agreements be definitively consolidated in line with the inclusive national dialogue, which would enable Government members, the political parties represented in the National Assembly and every sector of civil society to arrive at a consensus and implement the agreements constructively through a legitimate commitment to achieving a lasting political and social solution whose sole aim is benefiting the people of Guinea-Bissau, in strict respect for their sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity. We acknowledge the active participation of the African Union, the Economic Community of West African States and its Mission in Guinea- Bissau, the European Union, the Community of Portuguese-speaking Countries and UNIOGBIS, through its Special Representative, and their ongoing efforts to achieve a rapprochement between the conflicting parties. We believe that UNIOGBIS's work, focused on initiatives aimed at creating opportunities for dialogue and facilitating cooperation in the security and political sectors with the goal of forming an inclusive Government, must be reinforced. It will be crucial to increase the Office's capacity to use peaceful means to deal with the crisis if it is to have more effective and efficient results. We therefore support the recommendation in the Secretary-General's report that the mission's mandate be renewed for another year. We also commend the work being done by the Guinea-Bissau configuration of the Peacebuilding Commission, appropriately chaired by Brazil, and we emphasize the importance of strengthening its coordination, information exchange and active collaboration with the Security Council, in accordance with the relevant General Assembly and Security Council resolutions. We continue to encourage the initiative of the Women's Forum for Peace. The efforts of women in Guinea-Bissau to achieve a political solution shows that a gender perspective and female participation in mediation and dialogue at all levels are essential. In conclusion, we would like to reiterate once again that in a time of political, institutional and social crisis, ensuring the welfare of the population and especially its most vulnerable sectors should be the overriding interest guiding Guinea-Bissau on a path to permanent stability. Mr. Zhang Dianbin (China) (spoke in Chinese): China would like to thank Special Representative Touré and Ambassador Vieira, Chair of the Guinea-Bissau configuration of the Peacebuilding Commission, for their briefings. The situation in Guinea-Bissau has been generally stable in recent months, but it will still require all the parties to work together to meet each other halfway if they are to resolve the political impasse peacefully and as soon as possible. China hopes that the parties in Guinea-Bissau will consider the country's interests, intensify their dialogue and communication in order to bridge differences quickly, implement the Conakry Agreement as soon as possible, form an inclusive Government and resume nation-building efforts. Meanwhile, the international community should continue to follow the situation in Guinea-Bissau. China will continue to support the United Nations Integrated Peacebuilding Office in Guinea-Bissau in exercising its good offices and conducting mediation efforts under Mr. Touré's leadership, with the aim of coordinating international support for Guinea-Bissau, promoting political dialogue and advancing the country's economic and social development. The international community should continue to support regional and subregional organizations such as the African Union, the Economic Community of West African States and the Community of Portuguese-speaking Countries in their role as mediators, while maintaining respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Guinea-Bissau and supporting the countries of the region in settling African issues through African means. Mr. Polyanskiy (Russian Federation) (spoke in Russian): We thank Mr. Modibo Touré, Special Representative of the Secretary-General, for his briefing on the evolving political situation in Guinea- Bissau. We take note of the report of the Secretary- 14/02/2018 The situation in Guinea-Bissau S/PV.8182 18-04195 17/20 General (S/2018/110) and the briefing by Mr. Mauro Vieira, Permanent Representative of Brazil and Chair of the Guinea-Bissau configuration of the Peacebuilding Commission. Russia supports the efforts of the United Nations, the African Union, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and the Community of Portuguese-speaking Countries to normalize the situation in Guinea-Bissau, which is undergoing a prolonged political, social and economic domestic crisis. We are concerned about the lack of tangible progress in implementing the Conakry Agreement. We want to emphasize how crucial the Agreement is to mitigating the political hostility and reducing Guinea- Bissau's potential for conflict. We urge the country's executive and legislative representatives to focus on forming an inclusive Government, introducing reforms, especially in the security sector and the Constitution, and increasing their joint efforts to prepare for parliamentary and presidential elections. It will be vital to strengthen the constitutional order and the rule of law and resolve the accumulating socioeconomic issues. We are pleased that the country's political forces continue to act with regard for the law and that the military has remained neutral. We have taken note of the ECOWAS communiqué of 4 February on imposing targeted sanctions on 19 members of Guinea-Bissau's political elite. Regarding the possibility of imposing similar measures based on the provisions of Security Council resolution 2048 (2012), we would like to point out that the resolution's main aim was restoring constitutional order, which in practical terms was achieved several years ago now. The result is that the resolution's sanctions measures are very outdated. In our opinion its listing criteria have little to do with Guinea-Bissau's current political situation, and in any case would not be usable against participants in the political process who are acting within the law. We are compelled to conclude that the opinions of the Secretary-General's report on the security sector situation give the impression that things have been left unsaid. It would have been more logical to discuss how the United Nations Integrated Peacebuilding Office in Guinea-Bissau (UNIOGBIS) is implementing the provisions of its mandate with regard to building Guinea-Bissau's capacity to combat transnational crime and drug trafficking, after describing the actual state of affairs in those areas. In general, given the overall situation in Guinea- Bissau, we are willing to consider the Secretary- General's proposal to extend UNIOGBIS's mandate. However, we believe that the Special Representative should focus not only on helping the people of Guinea-Bissau emerge from their political deadlock and preparing for the parliamentary elections in May but also on effectively addressing the root causes of the problems in Guinea-Bissau, which lie in its Constitution's structural contradictions. If the work of constitutional reform is not completed by the start of the next electoral cycle, the country risks encountering the same problems with the new parliament and President. The President (spoke in Arabic): I shall now make a statement in my capacity as representative of Kuwait. At the outset, I join other Council members in thanking the Special Representative of the Secretary- General, Mr. Modibo Touré, for his valuable briefing. I would also like to express my appreciation to Ambassador Mauro Vieira for his briefing as the chief of Guinea-Bissau Configuration of the Peacebuilding Commission. We commend their efforts to support security, stability and socioeconomic development in Guinea-Bissau. We have been following the recent political developments there and regret the fact that none of the provisions of the Conakry Agreement have been implemented since signing it in October 2016. It is unacceptable that there has so far been no appointment of Prime Minister who enjoys consensus by the relevant two parties, which is critical to implementing other items of the Agreement. The situation in Guinea-Bissau differs from other cases before the Security Council in having no security aspects. Unfortunately, however, the impasse has lasted more than a year, and it is the people of Guinea-Bissau who are suffering the consequences. In that regard, we commend the steps that the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has taken to advance the political process, including measures for the imposition of sanctions on those obstructing the implementation of the Conakry Agreement, as well as the decision to extend the mandate of its Mission in Guinea-Bissau until the end of March. We want to emphasize the relevance of the role of such regional organizations in resolving regional issues. The efforts of the United Nations Integrated Peacebuilding Office in Guinea-Bissau (UNIOGBIS) S/PV.8182 The situation in Guinea-Bissau 14/02/2018 18/20 18-04195 deserve support, since it is dealing with a difficult and complicated political situation. However, we hope that it will be able to make progress during the coming period with respect to conducting legislative elections this year and presidential elections next. The legislative and presidential elections, to be held in 2018 and 2019 respectively, must take place within the specific time frame. We therefore call on the United Nations Integrated Peacebuilding Office in Guinea-Bissau, along with all stakeholders in Guinea- Bissau, such as the European Union, the African Union, ECOWAS and the Community of Portuguese-speaking Countries, to spare no efforts towards that end. We also call on the Government of Guinea-Bissau to ensure its citizens' full participation in the elections, as well as security and freedom of expression and assembly for all. The cooperation between UNIOGBIS and civil-society organizations in promoting and developing the role of women in Guinea-Bissau is very positive. We hope that UNIOGBIS will make a greater effort to guarantee the full participation of all components of the society, especially women and young people, in the next political process and will continue to promote other aspects of its mandate until the current impasse is resolved. In conclusion, we reiterate the importance of the Conakry Agreement as the basic reference for resolving this political crisis in Guinea-Bissau, and the efforts of ECOWAS and President Alpha Condé of Guinea to advance the political process in order to maintain the security and stability of Guinea-Bissau and the region. We stand ready to cooperate with Côte d'Ivoire in preparing a draft resolution for the extension of the UNIOGBIS mandate, in response to a request by the Secretary-General. We also support the issuance of a Press Statement to clarify the unified position of the Council regarding the situation in Guinea-Bissau. I now resume my functions as President of the Council. I give the floor to the representative of Guinea-Bissau. Mr. Delfim da Silva (Guinea-Bissau) (spoke in French): I thank you, Mr. President, for inviting my delegation to the Security Council table and for giving me the floor. I would like to take this opportunity to congratulate your country, Kuwait, on its assumption of the presidency of the Security Council for the month of February. We wish you success in your work. I would like to thank Mr. Modibó Touré, Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Guinea- Bissau, for his presentation today of the report of the Secretary-General (S/2018/110). I would also like to thank Ambassador Mauro Vieira of Brazil once again for his constructive statement on behalf of peacebuilding and constitutional and democratic order in Guinea-Bissau. And I would like to express our gratitude to all the Ambassadors of States members of the Security Council for their attention to my country, Guinea-Bissau. The political crisis in Guinea-Bissau did not begin with the signing of the Conakry Agreement in October 2016, but much earlier. The Conakry Agreement represents a step in the right direction for resolving the crisis by consensus. In the past 15 months, the two main parties — the African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC) and the Party for Social Renewal (PRS) — have repeatedly and publicly expressed their disagreement on a crucial point of the Agreement, which is having consensus on choosing a candidate for the post of Prime Minister. If a consensus was reached, the agreed candidate would then be appointed by the President of the Republic, in line with the Constitution. The PAIGC states that there was such a consensus in Conakry. The PRS, for its part, affirms that there was not. Fifteen months later, the lack of consensus has prevented the appointment of a Prime Minister, which must be consensus-based. How can the President appoint a consensus Prime Minister without, at the very least, the prior agreement of the two largest political parties? In short, the crisis over the consensus is really what has paralysed the Conakry Agreement and is prolonging the stalemate in the 15-month political crisis in Guinea-Bissau. The question is how to overcome the crisis concerning the consensus. Some believe that the imposition of sanctions will be conducive to it. We are not sure of that. Sanctions are unlikely to defuse a crisis and can even be counterproductive. It is important to bear in mind that while it is easy to adopt sanctions, it is much more difficult to impose a consensus. In any case, continuing to seek a solution to the crisis is clearly the most important thing that we must do. We need a compromise solution, a credible name, a person whose academic, political and professional 14/02/2018 The situation in Guinea-Bissau S/PV.8182 18-04195 19/20 background can bring about such a compromise. We need someone who, without being the favourite candidate of the PAIGC or the PRS, has a background that would enable him to bring the parties together and thereby reach a compromise. The recent appointment to the post of Prime Minister of a PAIGC leader, the engineer Artur Silva, a former Minister of four Government departments — Fisheries, Defence, Education and Foreign Affairs — suggests that he is the right person to help bring about such a compromise. Moreover, after his appointment, Silva was re-elected to the higher bodies of the PAIGC, its Central Committee and Political Bureau — at the party's most recent congress, which ended a few days ago, proving that he has earned the political confidence of the party's most important bodies. Prime Minister Silva has already held working meetings in Bissau, which I would say are encouraging, with all the parties to the Conakry Agreement — the Ambassadors of Nigeria, Senegal, China, the Gambia and the representative of the Economic Community of West African States in Guinea-Bissau. Finally, through the appointment of a senior PAIGC leader, justice can be done to the party that won the last legislative elections. But above all, there will be no losers, since the PRS will be guaranteed strong representation in a Government of inclusion. This is not a zero-sum game. Under this principle of compromise, which allows a certain degree of flexibility regarding the principle of consensus, there will undoubtedly be a winner — my country, Guinea-Bissau. In conclusion, I reiterate our thanks to the members and want to assure the Council that Guinea-Bissau will continue to count on their support in these difficult times for the sake of civil peace, political stability and solidarity. The President (spoke in Arabic): I now give the floor to the representative of Togo. Mr. Kpayedo (Togo) (spoke in French): I would first like to thank you, Mr. President, for the opportunity to address the Council once again on the situation in Guinea-Bissau, in my capacity as Coordinator of the Ambassadors of the member countries of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) that are accredited to the United Nations. I also want to thank the Secretary-General of the United Nations for his report on the situation in Guinea- Bissau (S/2018/110), presented today by Mr. Modibo Touré, his Special Representative, whom we welcome here, along with his team, and whose briefing has provided us with a thorough picture of the situation in that country. Lastly, I would like to thank Mr. Mauro Vieira for his commitment and efforts in his capacity as Chair of the Guinea-Bissau configuration of the Peacebuilding Commission. Since it began, the crisis in Guinea-Bissau has continued to be a source of great concern for the Heads of State of West Africa, who are therefore sparing no effort to arrive at a favourable and lasting outcome. This issue has been on the agenda of every recent meeting of our subregional organization's Summit. In my last statement to the Council in August (see S/PV.8031), I discussed the trampling of the implementation of the Conakry Agreement, which led to the possibility of having recourse to the ECOWAS sanctions. Since then, the impasse is still there, despite the proposal for a new road map by President José Mário Vaz at the conclusion of the fifty-second Ordinary Session of Authority of Heads of State and Government of ECOWAS, held in Abuja on 16 and 17 December 2017, and reaffirmed in Addis Ababa at the ECOWAS Extraordinary Session held on 27 January, on the margins of the 30th Ordinary Session of the African Union Assembly. In that regard, the President-in-Office of ECOWAS, Mr. Faure Essozimna Gnassingbé, in consultation with his peers, dispatched a mission of the ministerial sanctions committee to Guinea-Bissau on 31 January and 1 February 2018, led by Mr. Robert Dussey, Togo's Minister for Foreign Affairs, Cooperation and African Integration. Its purpose was to assess the progress made by the parties to the crisis in implementing the Agreement and to report to the ECOWAS Heads of State on the potential consequences if the stalemate persisted. Following that report, the Heads of State and Government of ECOWAS, in view of the fact that no significant progress has been seen in the implementation of the Conakry Agreement despite ongoing mediation and calling on all of Guinea-Bissau's political leaders to show their sense of responsibility and respect for their country's Constitution through a frank and inclusive dialogue, decided to activate the sanctions mechanisms against individuals and organizations that are hindering a settlement of the crisis, with the aim of promoting the restoration of democratic governance and respect for the rule of law in Guinea-Bissau. As a result, 19 political figures have been subject to sanctions since 4 February, in accordance with our S/PV.8182 The situation in Guinea-Bissau 14/02/2018 20/20 18-04195 decision 01/2018, on individual sanctions designed to promote the restoration of democratic governance and respect for the rule of law in Guinea-Bissau. The list is not exhaustive,and the monitoring committee for the implementation of sanctions — composed of Togo, Guinea and the ECOWAS Commission — therefore reserves the right to revise it as the situation on the ground changes. Here I should point out, as the representative of Côte d'Ivoire noted earlier, that these sanctions were established through ECOWAS's Supplementary Act of 17 February 2012 concerning sanctions regimes against Member States that do not honour their obligations to the Community, and are based on article 45 of the ECOWAS Protocol on Democracy and Good Governance. They include suspended participation in Community activities, and a travel ban and financial assets freeze for those listed and their families, wherever they may be. The sanctions cannot be effectively implemented without the assistance of the United Nations and other multilateral and regional organizations. In that regard, I would like to take this opportunity to call for multifaceted support to ECOWAS in implementing these measures, which we hope will help to create an atmosphere conducive to the restoration of dialogue among the people of Guinea-Bissau, with a view to resolving this political and institutional impasse, which has lasted too long. In conclusion, I would once again like to invite all the parties to the Guinea-Bissau crisis to show a spirit of compromise, responsibility and openness to a peaceful, negotiated and lasting solution to this dispute, which hampers development efforts in the country and therefore in the entire subregion, which is still dealing with persistent security challenges. The meeting rose at 5 p.m.
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In the future, maybe this week's action by the Louisiana State Senate to send SB 276 to Republican Gov. Jeff Landry's desk will help out the political prospects of Democrats bitterly opposed to it.
That bill makes the pair of drugs used for chemical abortions available by prescription only in Louisiana, as part of an effort that creates the crime of coerced abortion. By making these prescription-based, this makes more difficult obtaining these to induce nefariously ingestion by an unknowing pregnant female, as well as throws up a roadblock to those aiding and abetting in induction of abortions in Louisiana, which by law almost always is illegal.
Democrats raised all sorts of essentially phony objections to this, which marginally would change the ability to obtain these drugs, even to have an illegal abortion performed, and wouldn't materially alter the ability and alacrity in using these for other purposes. As GOP state Sen. Jay Morris noted during debate, the real but hidden objection was it could prevent a portion of these illegal abortions in the state that runs contrary to the abortion-on-demand philosophy of the political left.
Yet this becoming law, which Democrats may see as a defeat now, actually may reap them future political gains in Louisiana. Not anytime soon, but perhaps a generation away, despite themselves.
This is because of natality patterns in the aggregate globally, in the U.S., and among the states. For decades, fertility has fallen everywhere, where the global replacement rate has been 2.1 per female. It last reached that in the U.S. in 2007 and by the latest estimates is now close to 1.6, mirroring other economically-developed countries although it is higher than most, and even the entire global rate is estimated to have fallen to replacement rate.
That means at the current rate the planet's population will start shrinking in about four decades. Large-scale immigration, whether legally, into the U.S. may keep its population expanding but eventually that lack of domestic reproduction would catch up, and has negative consequences in various ways, such as solvency of pension funds like Social Security, inputs to continued economic growth, and dislocation in industries like education and construction.
Apparently, the culprit is a shift in attitudes towards more individualistic goals that deemphasize present enjoyment of raising children and future enjoyment of interacting with succeeding generations, But, it's not all uniform; indeed, within America the states show wide variation. The most fertile state, South Dakota, has a rate about 50 percent higher than the lowest, Vermont.
However, there's a very telling pattern in all of that. Of the 13 highest states – with Louisiana ranked fifth – all are "red" states. They reliably have voted Republican in the past few presidential elections, they all have GOP senators, and only one has a governor (Kansas; Nebraska officially is nonpartisan but clearly hews to the right in national voting behavior) not a Republican while all have both chambers of the legislatures in GOP hands, often by supermajorities.
By contrast, of the 13 lowest states, all but New Hampshire is a "blue" state where besides it all having just Democrats as senators (as does New Hampshire), only one governor not a Democrat (Nevada), and all legislatures controlled by Democrats. This shouldn't surprise given the different conceptualizations behind conservatism and liberalism: liberals see the world more atomistically and in zero-sum terms and place emphasis on symbolic policy representation that in objective terms tends to command and control of others that relieves them of greater responsibility for positive interactions into the lives of others, a selfishness that translates into reduced desire to have families.
There are disparate allied factors as well related to these different ideologies. Conservatives are more likely culturally desirous of children and larger families, often for religious reasons, as opposed to liberals. For their part, liberals are more likely caught up in fringe behaviors such as the cult of catastrophic anthropogenic global warming that acts as a disincentive to want children.
And then there's abortion. There's perhaps no more demonstrative act that a female could perform than killing her unborn child in the womb that affects the fertility rate, part of the cultural mosaic that so strongly affects that rate. Add to that the long-confirmed data point in political science that family political attitudes are the single most important factor in shaping a person's own political attitudes – partisanship strongly, specific issue preferences well, ideological identification somewhat – and that means as conservatives are much less likely than liberals to support abortion, then conservatives' values are passed along through child-rearing in a disproportionately-higher fashion by the numbers.
Or to put it more crassly, conservatives are replicating holders of their issue preferences into superior voting numbers while liberals are aborting their own into minority status, the data trend reveals. Perhaps this is one reason why the left, whose leaders must sense this coming, increasingly support policies that promote subservience and dependence, as a method to break this demography as destiny
So, when conservatives rightfully attack the moral evil of abortion and the attendant disrespect of life it encourages, they fight the good fight but ironically make matters more difficult for themselves politically in the future. SB 276 will save lives, both of pregnant females and the unborn, but then many of those children will become socialized into environments the values of which disrespect life and a responsible individualism which enhances it. That only reinforces something conservatives already know: life is a series of choices that demands prudence in decision-making for which the individual must take responsibility without exporting their consequences to others, and in this instance preservation and valuation of life is the most important goal.
La economía ecuatoriana a lo largo de los años ha atravesado un escenario negativo de eventos y acontecimientos que han originado el ascenso del riesgo-país. El objetivo de esta investigación es demostrar el impacto que genera el índice riesgo país en los flujos de inversión directa de la balanza de pagos del Ecuador. El diseño metodológico evidenció un enfoque cuantitativo-predictivo de alcance correlacional, puesto que, se analizó una base de datos con información recabada del Banco Central del Ecuador mediante el software estadístico R-Studio. Se evidenciaron resultados que indican la reducción de inversión extranjera frente a eventuales incrementos en los puntos básicos del índice riesgo-país. En conclusión, la inversión extranjera directa se muestra con una alta sensibilidad ante los eventuales sucesos políticos, macroeconómicos y de inestabilidad social que provoca la alta calificación en los puntos básicos del indicador. Palabras Clave: inversión extranjera, riesgo-país, balanza de pagos. Referencias [1]Banco Central del Ecuador, «Notas metodológicas de la balanza de pagos del Ecuador,» BCE, Quito, 2018. [2]J. Armijos, «Efecto de la inversión extranjera directa en el crecimiento económico en Ecuador,» Revista Económica, vol. 2, nº 1, pp. 31-38, 2017. [3]J. López y J. Laverde, «Inversión Extranjera Directa y carga tributaria en Ecuador, periodo 2004-2016,» Valor Agregado, vol. 5, nº 7, pp. 50-53, 2017. [4]G. Rodriguez y D. Forero, «Factores determinantes de la inversión extranjera directa,,» Universidad Tecnológica de Bolivar, vol. 2, pp. 119-134, 2016. [5]S. Cárdenas y J. Behr, «La inversión extranjera y el riesgo país en el Ecuador, Periodo 2007-2013,» Revista Observatorio de la Economía Latinoamericana,Ecuador, 2016. [6]Banco Central del Ecuador, «Análisis trimestral de labalanza de pagos,» BCE, Quito, 2019. [7]D. Rosillo, Análisis de la inversión extranjera directa en el ecuador, la afectación del índice riesgo país en la captación de inversiones y su incidencia en la economía de las empresas en el período 2007-2010, Quito, 2011. [8]A. Espín y A. Villalva, Análisis de la inversión extranjera directa y sus determinantes en el Ecuador, período 2007-2015, Quito, 2017. [9]O. Cedeño y Á. Mendoza, «Impacto del índice riesgo país en la inversión extranjera directa de Ecuador periodo 2016-2018,» Polo de Conocimiento, vol. 5, nº 03, pp. 619-639, 2020. [10]J. Mogrovejo, «Factores determinantes de la inversión extranjera directa en algunos países de Latinoamérica, » Latinoamericana de Desarrollo Económico, vol. 5, pp. 51-82, 2005. [11]C. Silvia, Impacto del riesgo país en la inversión extranjera directa en el Ecuador en el período 2005-2015, Cuenca, 2018. [12]Organización de las Naciones Unidas ONU, «Análisis de las políticas de inversión Ecuador,» de Conferencia de las Naciones Unidas Sobre Comercio y Desarrollo, Nueva York y Ginebra, 2012. [13]J. Espín, A. Córdova, y G. López r,» Retos- Revista de Ciencias de la Administración y Economia, vol. 6, nº 12, p. 215, 2016. [14]J. Soliz, La inversión extranjera directa en el Ecuador y su incidencia en la economía, periodo 2008–2013, Quito, 2015. [15]E. Zurita, G. González, y E. Borja «Análisis de la dolarización y sus efectos sobre la inversión extranjera directa en Ecuador. Periodo 2000 - 2016,» Bolentín de Coyuntura, vol. 1, p. 4, 2017. [16]OXFAM, «Ecuador 2016 Respuesta al terremoto,» Ecuador, 2017. [17]A. Acosta, El otro riesgo país, Quito-Ecuador: Ediciones Abya-Yala, 2005. [18]L. Domenech y J. Diaz, Análisis de la evolución del riesgo país en la inversión extranjera directa ecuatoriana.período 2003 -2007, Guayaquil, 2008. [19]J. Erazo y K. Lindao Riesgo Pais Ecuador: "Principales determinantes y su incidencia", Guayaquil, 2004, pp. 1–77, 2004. [20]C. Larrea, «Crisis, dolarización y pobreza en Ecuador, » Retos para la integración social de los pobres en América Latina, vol. 1, pp. 217-227, 2005. [21]E. G. Montenegro Cueva, «Análisis de riesgo de las acciones de las empresas más representativas que estructuran el mercado de valores del Ecuador,» Quito, 2014. [22]J. M. Wooldridge, Introducción a la econometría. Un enfoque moderno, Michigan : South-Western, 2010. [23]Banco Central del Ecuador, «Información estadística monetarias y financieras mensuales,» 31 03 2020. [En línea]. Disponible en: https://contenido.bce.fin.ec/home1/estadisticas/bolmensual/IEMensual.jsp. [Último acceso: 15 07 2020]. [24]J. Galán, «Equilibrios y conjeturas,» Cuadernos del Seminario de Credibilidad Macroeconómica, vol. 1, p.1, 2014. [25]J. S. Santana, «El arte de programar en R,» Instituto Mexicano de Tecnologia del Agua, vol. 1, 2014. [26]L. Mahadeva, «Prueba de raíz unitaria para ayudar a la construcción de un modelo,» Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 1, p. 54, 2009. [27]H. Catalán, «Econometría y análisis de políticas fiscales, » University of Minnesota, vol. 48. [28]A. Novales, «Modelos vectoriales autoregresivos,» Universidad Complutense, vol. 1, 2017. [29]T. Calagua, «La Metodología del Vector Autorregresivo: Presentación y Algunas Aplicaciones,» Ciencias Empresariales, vol. 2, pp. 103-108, 2010. ; The Ecuadorian economy over the years has gone through a negative scenario of events and events that have caused the rise in country risk. The objective of this research is to demonstrate the impact that the country risk index generates on direct investment flows in Ecuador's balance of payments. The methodological design evidenced a quantitative-predictive approach of correlational scope, since a database with information collected from the Central Bank of Ecuador was analyzed using the statistical software R-Studio. Results were evidenced that indicate the reduction of foreign investment in the face of eventual increases in the basic points of the country risk index. In conclusion, foreign direct investment is highly sensitive to eventual political, macroeconomic and social instability events caused by the high rating in the basic points of the indicator. Keywords: foreign investment, country-risk, balance of payments. References [1]Banco Central del Ecuador, «Notas metodológicas de la balanza de pagos del Ecuador,» BCE, Quito, 2018. [2]J. Armijos, «Efecto de la inversión extranjera directa en el crecimiento económico en Ecuador,» Revista Económica, vol. 2, nº 1, pp. 31-38, 2017. [3]J. López and J. Laverde, «Inversión Extranjera Directa y carga tributaria en Ecuador, periodo 2004-2016,» Valor Agregado, vol. 5, nº 7, pp. 50-53, 2017. [4]G. Rodriguez and D. Forero, «Factores determinantes de la inversión extranjera directa,,» Universidad Tecnológica de Bolivar, vol. 2, pp. 119-134, 2016. [5]S. Cárdenas and J. Behr, «La inversión extranjera y el riesgo país en el Ecuador, Periodo 2007-2013,» Revista Observatorio de la Economía Latinoamericana,Ecuador, 2016. [6]Banco Central del Ecuador, «Análisis trimestral de labalanza de pagos,» BCE, Quito, 2019. [7]D. Rosillo, Análisis de la inversión extranjera directa en el ecuador, la afectación del índice riesgo país en la captación de inversiones y su incidencia en la economía de las empresas en el período 2007-2010, Quito, 2011. [8]A. Espín and A. Villalva, Análisis de la inversión extranjera directa y sus determinantes en el Ecuador, período 2007-2015, Quito, 2017. [9]O. Cedeño and Á. Mendoza, «Impacto del índice riesgo país en la inversión extranjera directa de Ecuador periodo 2016-2018,» Polo de Conocimiento, vol. 5, nº 03, pp. 619-639, 2020. [10]J. Mogrovejo, «Factores determinantes de la inversión extranjera directa en algunos países de Latinoamérica, » Latinoamericana de Desarrollo Económico, vol. 5, pp. 51-82, 2005. [11]C. Silvia, Impacto del riesgo país en la inversión extranjera directa en el Ecuador en el período 2005-2015, Cuenca, 2018. [12]Organización de las Naciones Unidas ONU, «Análisis de las políticas de inversión Ecuador,» de Conferencia de las Naciones Unidas Sobre Comercio y Desarrollo, Nueva York y Ginebra, 2012. [13]J. Espín, A. Córdova, and G. López r,» Retos- Revista de Ciencias de la Administración y Economia, vol. 6, nº 12, p. 215, 2016. [14]J. Soliz, La inversión extranjera directa en el Ecuador y su incidencia en la economía, periodo 2008–2013, Quito, 2015. [15]E. Zurita, G. González, and E. Borja «Análisis de la dolarización y sus efectos sobre la inversión extranjera directa en Ecuador. Periodo 2000 - 2016,» Bolentín de Coyuntura, vol. 1, p. 4, 2017. [16]OXFAM, «Ecuador 2016 Respuesta al terremoto,» Ecuador, 2017. [17]A. Acosta, El otro riesgo país, Quito-Ecuador: Ediciones Abya-Yala, 2005. [18]L. Domenech and J. Diaz, Análisis de la evolución del riesgo país en la inversión extranjera directa ecuatoriana.período 2003 -2007, Guayaquil, 2008. [19]J. Erazo and K. Lindao Riesgo Pais Ecuador: "Principales determinantes y su incidencia", Guayaquil, 2004, pp. 1–77, 2004. [20]C. Larrea, «Crisis, dolarización y pobreza en Ecuador, » Retos para la integración social de los pobres en América Latina, vol. 1, pp. 217-227, 2005. [21]E. G. Montenegro Cueva, «Análisis de riesgo de las acciones de las empresas más representativas que estructuran el mercado de valores del Ecuador,» Quito, 2014. [22]J. M. Wooldridge, Introducción a la econometría. Un enfoque moderno, Michigan : South-Western, 2010. [23]Banco Central del Ecuador, «Información estadística monetarias y financieras mensuales,» 31 03 2020. [Online]. Available: https://contenido.bce.fin.ec/home1/estadisticas/bolmensual/IEMensual.jsp. [Last access: July 15, 2020]. [24]J. Galán, «Equilibrios y conjeturas,» Cuadernos del Seminario de Credibilidad Macroeconómica, vol. 1, p.1, 2014. [25]J. S. Santana, «El arte de programar en R,» Instituto Mexicano de Tecnologia del Agua, vol. 1, 2014. [26]L. Mahadeva, «Prueba de raíz unitaria para ayudar a la construcción de un modelo,» Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 1, p. 54, 2009. [27]H. Catalán, «Econometría y análisis de políticas fiscales, » University of Minnesota, vol. 48. [28]A. Novales, «Modelos vectoriales autoregresivos,» Universidad Complutense, vol. 1, 2017. [29]T. Calagua, «La Metodología del Vector Autorregresivo: Presentación y Algunas Aplicaciones,» Ciencias Empresariales, vol. 2, pp. 103-108, 2010.
[ENG] The present "Study of resources of industrial minerals and rocks for social economic inclusion and development in the Cusco region: Southern Sector" consists of four chapters and fifteen maps, which has been prepared with information from official and private sources, both national and international, also with information collected during field work. The objective of the study is the identification of industrial minerals and rocks (RMI) that have economic possibilities for their use as raw materials that could contribute to the improvement and / or replacement of materials currently scarcely used in the region and therefore generate new sources to work and improve the economy and welfare of the population. Chapter I presents background information, objectives, basic concepts of industrial minerals and rocks, economic development, sustainable development, incidence of poverty, economic and social inclusion, poverty and extreme poverty. It includes the work methodology of the study, location and accessibility of the region, its political division, area, population and climate. In chapter II, a description is given of the geological framework of the Cusco region, which dates from the Neoproterozoic to the recent Quaternary and that includes metamorphic, sedimentary and igneous rocks. In chapter III the situation of the 58 RMI in the region is touched, a definition is made of the only ones that occur, such as: gypsum (19), aggregates (18), limestones (10), volcanic tuff (sillar) (4), salt (3), travertine (2), volcanic flagstone (1) and common clay (1). All of them with economic extraction possibilities. It also presents the evaluation and interpretation of the results of the laboratory analysis of the samples of industrial rocks and minerals identified and selected based on the requirements and technical specifications required for their use in different industries. Chapter IV analyzes the economic and social situation of the region, based on the main macroeconomic indicators. The GDP of the Cusco region in the last ten years has experienced an average annual growth of 9.9%. According to data from INEI, the poverty index registered in the year 2009 was 63.5% and for the year 2012, it was between 21.9% and 30.6%. In 2009, the provinces with the highest poverty index were Canas and Chumbivilcas, with 83.5% and 85.7%, respectively; while the province with the best social status it wasthe Cusco, with 24.7%. The province with the highest estimated population in 2017 is Cusco and the one with the lowest population is Acomayo. The indicators of housing and basic services indicate that 76.60% of the houses are built of adobe and mud, 4.82% of wood and 4.16% of stone with mud, consequently they represent a risk before any geological event. The houses with availability of electric lighting by public network represent 64.37% of the total, 30.73% have no electricity and water. ; [ESP] El presente "Estudio de recursos de rocas y minerales industriales para la inclusión económica social y desarrollo en la región Cusco: Sector Meridional" consta de cuatro capítulos y quince mapas, el cual ha sido elaborado con información de fuentes oficiales y privadas, tanto nacionales como internacionales; además con información recolectada durante los trabajos de campo. El estudio tiene como objetivo la identificación de rocas y minerales industriales (RMI) que tengan posibilidades económicas para su aprovechamiento como materias primas que podrían contribuir al mejoramiento y/o reemplazo de los materiales actualmente usados escasamente en la región y, por consiguiente, generar nuevas fuentes de trabajo y mejorar la economía y bienestar de la población. En el capítulo I se presenta información sobre los antecedentes, objetivos, conceptos básicos de rocas y minerales industriales, desarrollo económico, desarrollo sostenible, incidencia de pobreza, inclusión económica y social, pobreza y pobreza extrema. Se incluye la metodología de trabajo del estudio, ubicación y accesibilidad de la región, su división política, superficie, población y clima. En el capítulo II se hace una descripción del marco geológico de la región Cusco, que data desde el Neoproterozoico hasta el Cuaternario reciente y que comprende rocas metamórficas, sedimentarias e ígneas. En el capítulo III se toca la situación de las 58 RMI en la región, se realiza una definición de las únicas que ocurren, como son: yeso (19), agregados o áridos (18), calizas (10), toba volcánica (sillar) (4), sal (3), travertino (2), piedra laja volcánica (1) y arcilla común (1). Todas con posibilidades económicas de extracción. También se presenta la evaluación e interpretación de los resultados de los análisis de laboratorio de las muestras de rocas y minerales industriales identificadas y seleccionadas a partir de los requerimientos y especificaciones técnicas requeridas para su uso en diferentes industrias. En el capítulo IV se analiza la situación económica y social de la región a partir de los principales indicadores macroeconómicos. El PBI de la región Cusco en los diez últimos años ha experimentado un crecimiento promedio anual de 9.9 %. Según datos de INEI, el índice de pobreza registrado en el año 2009 fue de 63.5 % y para el año 2012 fue entre 21.9 % y 30.6 %. En el año 2009 las provincias con mayor índice de pobreza fueron Canas y Chumbivilcas, con 83.5 % y 85.7 %, respectivamente; mientras que la provincia con mejor estatus social fue el Cusco, con 24.7 %. La provincia con mayor población estimada, al año 2017, es la del Cusco y la de menor población es la de Acomayo. Los indicadores de vivienda y servicios básicos señalan que el 76.60 % de las viviendas están construidas de adobe y tapia, el 4.82 % de madera y el 4.16 % de piedra con barro, en consecuencia representan un riesgo ante cualquier evento geológico. Las viviendas con disponibilidad de alumbrado eléctrico por red pública representan el 64.37 % del total, el 30.73 % no dispone de luz ni agua.
• Tobacco use is the leading preventable cause of death in Virginia, taking more than 9,200 lives each year. Tobacco-induced healthcare costs are $1.92 billion annually, including $369 million in Medicaid payments. • The growth of tobacco, and its importance to the economy of Virginia, has declined significantly. In 2008, tobacco was only the fifth most harvested and valuable crop, behind hay, corn, soybeans, and wheat, and constituted only 2.3% of the value of all Virginia agricultural products sold. • Virginia is becoming increasingly urban and its citizens are less concerned with Virginia's tobacco heritage. Significant majorities of Virginians support stronger clean indoor air laws and higher cigarette taxes. In 2009, 75% polled supported strong clean indoor air laws. • The tobacco industry has a significant presence in Virginia: Philip Morris has a large manufacturing and corporate presence in the Richmond area. • The tobacco industry's lobbying expenditures have significantly exceeded spending by tobacco control advocates. The industry also built strong ties to hospitality groups, trade associations, and tobacco growers to oppose tobacco control measures. • Republican legislators are significantly more supportive of the tobacco industry control than Democrats, who are more supportive of public health. • The tobacco industry gave about twice as much money to Republicans than Democrats. Controlling for party and legislative house, greater tobacco industry campaign contributions are statistically significantly associated with more pro-tobacco industry policy behavior. • Between 1970 and 2008, 70 cities and two counties imposed local cigarette excise taxes, an attractive and politically nonvolatile source of revenue. The tobacco industry has not been able to counter this activity. • Prior to 1990, many localities enacted local clean indoor air ordinances. Despite strong support among Virginians for clean indoor air laws and a growing movement among localities for local tobacco control, these measures were blocked in 1990 by the passage of the weak preemptive statewide Virginia Indoor Clean Air Act (VICAA). • Virginia was selected by the National Cancer Institute in 1990 to participate in the 17-state American Stop Smoking Intervention Study (ASSIST). ASSIST established a network of local tobacco control coalitions through Virginia Department of Health. Organizational issues and strong industry interference prevented ASSIST from accomplishing its mission of reducing smoking through policy change. • Virginia was awarded a Robert Wood Johnson Foundation SmokeLess States (SLS) grant in 1994 to support lasting statewide coalitions to reduce tobacco use; the effort failed in Virginia. • Virginia SmokeLess States was involved with the successful Southern Communities Tobacco Project to bring tobacco farmers together with tobacco control advocates; this effort accomplished little substantive change in tobacco control policy in Virginia. • In 1998, Virginia was part of the Master Settlement Agreement (MSA) between 46 states and the tobacco industry and will to receive about $4 billion from the settlement over 25 years. Virginia committed 10% of the proceeds to a youth-only tobacco control program; 40% was directed at financially supporting tobacco-growing communities negatively affected by declining growth of tobacco in the state, and the rest went to the General Fund. • Virginia Tobacco Settlement Foundation (VTSF)was founded in 1999 with the 10% of MSA funds. VTSF mounted a youth multimedia campaign, but little data are available on the effectiveness of VTSF programming. • In 2009, the General Assembly expanded VTSF's mission to include youth obesity prevention and changed its name to Virginia Foundation for Healthy Youth without any additional funding. The consequences for tobacco control programming are not known, but are likely to be negative if resources are diverted from tobacco control. • Virginia had the lowest cigarette tax in the nation from 1993-2004. The 2004 "2.5 Cents to Common Sense" campaign run by Virginians for a Healthy Future (VFHF), comprised of the Virginia chapters of AHA, ALA, and ACS, successfully used polling data to show popular support for an increase, targeted key legislators, and ran an effective media campaign. This effort resulted in a tax increase of 30 cents per pack in 2004. None of the increased tax went to fund tobacco control. • In 2006, with encouragement from VFHF, Governor Tim Kaine (D) issued Executive Order 41, prohibiting smoking in most executive branch buildings and state-owned vehicles. • In 2007, VFHF worked closely with Gov. Kaine and Sen. Brandon Bell (R) to introduce SB 1161, a strong expansion of the VCIAA to extend make most public places, including restaurants, smokefree. This effort failed. • The City of Norfolk decided to pass an ordinance prohibiting smoking in restaurants in 2007, arguing that it not preempted by the VCIAA because of the city's inherent police powers. The ordinance was rescinded before it went into effect because of complaints by local restaurateurs and the likelihood of a statewide law passing. Statewide public health advocates did not effectively support this effort to test state preemption. • In 2009 VFHF focused an intense "district campaign" on Assembly Speaker William Howell's (R) home district of Fredericksburg, forcing Howell to stop blocking all clean indoor air legislation. Instead of supporting 100% smokefree legislation, he proposed a weak amendment to the VCIAA that created exemptions for smoking rooms in restaurants. The member organizations of VFHF split in 2009 over support for the Kaine-Howell compromise legislation. After securing an agreement with Gov. Kaine in a back-room meeting, the Kaine-Howell bill passed and was signed into law by Kaine. The law prohibited most smoking in restaurants and bars but allowed separately vented smoking rooms. • Given strong support from Virginians for stronger clean indoor air laws, Virginia tobacco control advocates should reexamine their strategies. VFHF and its member organizations should provide financial and political resources to expand their successful 2009 Fredericksburg district campaign to repeal preemption. They should also consider identifying and supporting local efforts to enact stronger laws using the Norfolk model.
El surgimiento de una nueva forma de hacer agricultura respetando al medio ambiente y vinculada con la producción de alimentos sanos y orientados al mercado de exportación, ha venido ganando importancia en la agricultura mundial durante las ultimas tres décadas. Esta nueva forma de agricultura es conocida como Agricultura Ecológica. En la presente Tesis Doctoral se hace un análisis de la agricultura ecológica y de los productos que esta genera en Europa y de manera particular en España, desde los antecedentes hasta la situación actual, pasando por los beneficios, la legislación, el consumo, la calidad, la certificación, las estrategias de identificación (etiquetas), entre otras, como punto de partida para la implantación de este sector ecológico al agro mexicano. Se realiza un diagnostico desde el punto de vista ecológico y muestra la oportunidad que se presenta para un país como México, de incorporar este tipo de agricultura, tanto para la mejora del medio ambiente, como para un mejor desarrollo socioeconómico, sin perder de vista las raíces culturales. México, es un país con vocación agrícola, con climas favorables y territorios disponibles para este tipo de explotaciones, y esta Tesis demuestra su viabilidad, a través del rescate de tecnologías tradicionales y la incorporación de métodos de certificación y sistemas de comercialización, contribuyendo para la mejora de la calidad de vida de la sociedad actual (indígenas, campesinos, productores, comerciantes, consumidores, etc.), mostrando cambios en la demanda de los alimentos, criterios para la salud y nuevas exigencias ambientales. Se hace un análisis del marco jurídico que marcan las leyes mexicanas, en cuanto a aspectos de regulación ambiental, equilibrio ecológico y contaminación del suelo, se estudian la importancia social y económica, así como la normativa y los procesos de certificación, etiquetado y comercialización. Como parte prioritaria se analizan casos prácticos de organizaciones que ya trabajan la agricultura ecológica en México, y que han sido reconocidas a nivel Nacional como Internacional, como el caso de la Unión de Comunidades Indígenas de la Región del Istmo (UCIRI), principales productores de café ecológico en México, de los Productores Orgánicos del Cabo de Baja California Sur y de la Red de Alternativas Sustentables Agropecuarias (RASA), con sede en Guadalajara, Jalisco., ejemplos a seguir para la implementación de la agricultura respetuosa del medio ambiente a nuevas comunidades agrícolas del país, fortaleciendo su identidad cultural y la conservación de los recursos naturales. El producto principal de esta Tesis Doctoral, es la generación de una propuesta de un sistema de garantías de calidad en los procesos productivos y de comunicación, para el impulso de la agroecología en México, propuesta que se orienta hacia el aprovechamiento del potencial de la agroecología como eje impulsor del desarrollo local, manteniendo a la población activa en el medio rural. "Queda mucho por construir pero, tal como se ha visualizado a lo largo de la investigación, las posibilidades de desarrollo local apuntan optimistas siempre y cuando se conjunten las voluntades y los esfuerzos hacia un bien comun." Mario A. Orozco ; The emergence of a new form of making agriculture giving respect to the environment linked to the production of healthy foods oriented to export markets has gained importance in world agriculture in the last three decades. This new form of agriculture is known as Ecological Agriculture. This Philosophy Doctor thesis analyses ecological agriculture and the products that it generates in Europe, Spain in particular, from its roots until the present situation, reviewing its benefits, legislation, consumption, quality, certification, the identification strategies (labels), among others, as the starting point for the implementation of this ecological sector in Mexican agriculture. A diagnosis is being made from the ecological point of view showing the opportunity of introducing this type of agriculture to a country like Mexico, for environmental improvement as well as for a better socioeconomic development without loosing cultural roots. Mexico is a country with agricultural inclination, with advantageous climate and available territories for this type of exploitaion, and this thesis demonstrates its viability through the recovery of traditional technologies and the introduction of certification methods and marketing systems, contributing for the improvement of society's quality of life (indigenous groups, farmers, producers, merchants, consumers, etc.), showing changes in food demand, health criterion and new environmental demands. An analysis of the legal frame determined by Mexican laws is being made, in terms of environmental regulation, ecologic equilibrium and soil pollution; economic and social importances are being studied as well as standardization and certification processes, labeling and marketing. As a priority, practical cases of nationaly and internationaly recognized organizations that work with ecological agriculture in Mexico are being analysed, such as Unión de Comunidades Indígenas de la Región del Istmo, UCIRI (Indigenous Communities Union of the Isthmus Region), leading producers of ecological coffee in Mexico, Productores Orgánicos del Cabo de Baja California Sur (Cape Organic Producers of South Baja California) and Agricultural Sustainable Alternative Network, headquartered in Guadalajara, all of these as examples to be followed for the implementation of environmentally respectful agriculture in new rural communities in the country, reinforcing their cultural identity and the conservation of natural resources. The main product of this Ph. D. thesis is the generation of a proposal of a quality guarantees system in the productive processes and communication for the impulse of agroecology in Mexico, oriented to take advantage of the potential of agroecology as an impulse force of local development, keeping the rural population active. "There is a lot to be built but, just as it has been visualized through the research, the possibilities of development seem optimistic only if efforts and wills are joined to a common welfare." Mario A. Orozco ; Postprint (published version)
El surgimiento de una nueva forma de hacer agricultura respetando al medio ambiente y vinculada con la producción de alimentos sanos y orientados al mercado de exportación, ha venido ganando importancia en la agricultura mundial durante las ultimas tres décadas. Esta nueva forma de agricultura es conocida como Agricultura Ecológica. En la presente Tesis Doctoral se hace un análisis de la agricultura ecológica y de los productos que esta genera en Europa y de manera particular en España, desde los antecedentes hasta la situación actual, pasando por los beneficios, la legislación, el consumo, la calidad, la certificación, las estrategias de identificación (etiquetas), entre otras, como punto de partida para la implantación de este sector ecológico al agro mexicano. Se realiza un diagnostico desde el punto de vista ecológico y muestra la oportunidad que se presenta para un país como México, de incorporar este tipo de agricultura, tanto para la mejora del medio ambiente, como para un mejor desarrollo socioeconómico, sin perder de vista las raíces culturales. México, es un país con vocación agrícola, con climas favorables y territorios disponibles para este tipo de explotaciones, y esta Tesis demuestra su viabilidad, a través del rescate de tecnologías tradicionales y la incorporación de métodos de certificación y sistemas de comercialización, contribuyendo para la mejora de la calidad de vida de la sociedad actual (indígenas, campesinos, productores, comerciantes, consumidores, etc.), mostrando cambios en la demanda de los alimentos, criterios para la salud y nuevas exigencias ambientales. Se hace un análisis del marco jurídico que marcan las leyes mexicanas, en cuanto a aspectos de regulación ambiental, equilibrio ecológico y contaminación del suelo, se estudian la importancia social y económica, así como la normativa y los procesos de certificación, etiquetado y comercialización. Como parte prioritaria se analizan casos prácticos de organizaciones que ya trabajan la agricultura ecológica en México, y que han sido reconocidas a nivel Nacional como Internacional, como el caso de la Unión de Comunidades Indígenas de la Región del Istmo (UCIRI), principales productores de café ecológico en México, de los Productores Orgánicos del Cabo de Baja California Sur y de la Red de Alternativas Sustentables Agropecuarias (RASA), con sede en Guadalajara, Jalisco., ejemplos a seguir para la implementación de la agricultura respetuosa del medio ambiente a nuevas comunidades agrícolas del país, fortaleciendo su identidad cultural y la conservación de los recursos naturales. El producto principal de esta Tesis Doctoral, es la generación de una propuesta de un sistema de garantías de calidad en los procesos productivos y de comunicación, para el impulso de la agroecología en México, propuesta que se orienta hacia el aprovechamiento del potencial de la agroecología como eje impulsor del desarrollo local, manteniendo a la población activa en el medio rural. "Queda mucho por construir pero, tal como se ha visualizado a lo largo de la investigación, las posibilidades de desarrollo local apuntan optimistas siempre y cuando se conjunten las voluntades y los esfuerzos hacia un bien comun." Mario A. Orozco ; The emergence of a new form of making agriculture giving respect to the environment linked to the production of healthy foods oriented to export markets has gained importance in world agriculture in the last three decades. This new form of agriculture is known as Ecological Agriculture. This Philosophy Doctor thesis analyses ecological agriculture and the products that it generates in Europe, Spain in particular, from its roots until the present situation, reviewing its benefits, legislation, consumption, quality, certification, the identification strategies (labels), among others, as the starting point for the implementation of this ecological sector in Mexican agriculture. A diagnosis is being made from the ecological point of view showing the opportunity of introducing this type of agriculture to a country like Mexico, for environmental improvement as well as for a better socioeconomic development without loosing cultural roots. Mexico is a country with agricultural inclination, with advantageous climate and available territories for this type of exploitaion, and this thesis demonstrates its viability through the recovery of traditional technologies and the introduction of certification methods and marketing systems, contributing for the improvement of society's quality of life (indigenous groups, farmers, producers, merchants, consumers, etc.), showing changes in food demand, health criterion and new environmental demands. An analysis of the legal frame determined by Mexican laws is being made, in terms of environmental regulation, ecologic equilibrium and soil pollution; economic and social importances are being studied as well as standardization and certification processes, labeling and marketing. As a priority, practical cases of nationaly and internationaly recognized organizations that work with ecological agriculture in Mexico are being analysed, such as Unión de Comunidades Indígenas de la Región del Istmo, UCIRI (Indigenous Communities Union of the Isthmus Region), leading producers of ecological coffee in Mexico, Productores Orgánicos del Cabo de Baja California Sur (Cape Organic Producers of South Baja California) and Agricultural Sustainable Alternative Network, headquartered in Guadalajara, all of these as examples to be followed for the implementation of environmentally respectful agriculture in new rural communities in the country, reinforcing their cultural identity and the conservation of natural resources. The main product of this Ph. D. thesis is the generation of a proposal of a quality guarantees system in the productive processes and communication for the impulse of agroecology in Mexico, oriented to take advantage of the potential of agroecology as an impulse force of local development, keeping the rural population active. "There is a lot to be built but, just as it has been visualized through the research, the possibilities of development seem optimistic only if efforts and wills are joined to a common welfare." Mario A. Orozco ; Postprint (published version)
