The Malacca Dilemma: a critical analysis of Chinese positions
In: http://hdl.handle.net/1885/14013
The emergence of the so-called 'Malacca Dilemma', espoused by Chinese President Hu Jintao in 2003, has sparked a wave of interest from Western and Chinese scholars about China's energy security policy direction. It has been understood by various scholars to represent a shift in China' s security discourse, challenging the notion that China wishes to promote 'harmonious development' as it rises as a world power. This is due to the fact that economic growth is one of the fundamental pillars that upholds the legitimacy of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and underpins a stable China. The position within areas of Chinese scholarship and officialdom holds that China's oil, of which 80% passes through the Malacca Straits, could be disrupted by hostile powers therefore represents a direct challenge to China's rise. The argument thus follows that if China is to ensure its oil security, it needs to develop a powerful navy, but this may induce suspicion of a more aggressive, militarized China by other nations. This last point represents the core of the Malacca Dilemma. While there is suspicion of the development of the Chinese navy (PLAN) in recent years and legitimate links to protecting its oil security emanating from much of the Western scholarly discourse on China's energy security, such suspicion is often based on narrow gee-strategic frameworks and analysis of capabilities alone that ignore how Chinese scholars and officials posit the Malacca Dilemma. However, China's understanding of the Malacca Dilemma, as evaluated through its scholarly writings, suggests that the threat of a malevolent rising China is unwarranted . An evaluation of the Malacca Dilemma discourse within China reveals that arguments have shifted from advocating an aggressive naval development policy, to seeking greater cooperation with China's Southeast and South Asian littoral nations as a means to resolve the Malacca Dilemma. More importantly, the debate has also shifted to Chinese scholars criticizing whether there is a dilemma at all, and the more militant, aggressive naval policies have been marginalized within the discourse. Secondly, the Malacca Dilemma discourse itself has remained a side -note to broader energy security discourses within China. The key debates concerning the Malacca Dilemma have had little affect on Beijing's decision-making process, as the discourse has not accorded with China's 'strategic guiding thoughts' that promote 'harmonious development'. These guidelines provide the superstructure and guiding ideology in which security polices must accord with, and since the more militant Malacca Dilemma arguments have failed to do this, they have remained within the recesses of scholarly thought. Moreover, with the emergence of 'Tianxia' theory (a theory that bolsters the promotion of China's harmonious development) and its enthusiastic reception within Chinas' intellectual and official circles since 2005, the more militant aspects of the Malacca Dilemma debate have been further marginalized. Lastly, it should be recognized that the Malacca Dilemma emerged from a reaction to empirical developments and was bolstered by a perception within China that the United States (US) and other key parties were trying to disrupt and hinder China's rise . In part, this was a result of narrow gee-strategic discourses that failed to understand how China views the world, and posited China's rise as threatening. As such, this position was self-fulfilling as Chinese officials and scholars responded to this perception of a hostile US, which resulted in a more aggressive militant aspect of China's security discourse emerging. To hinder the emergence and re-emergence of such issues like the Malacca Dilemma, there needs to be a greater mutual understanding between the United States and China of various security and international relations positions. Secondly, there ne eds to be critical analysis of how discourses are appropriated and shift through time, as this may affect how one views a foreign power. This report aims to illustrate how Chinese intellectuals and officials posit the Malacca Dilemma. This report, however, is only a narrow case study, but the methodologies adopted within the report can easily be broadened to other areas of security and international relations studies. This will help mitigate the occurrence of issues like the Malacca Dilemma, which in hindsight raise mutual suspicions of a hostile power because their importance within security studies is over-emphasized, thus producing a skewed understanding of how these issues resonate in one's home country.