The COVID-19 vaccination drive raises questions about the trajectory of the economic recovery and the pandemic's impact on consumers' longer-term behaviors. In this Commentary, we examine the evolution of consumers' expectations for their post-crisis spending on services that have been dramatically curtailed by the pandemic: visiting restaurants, bars, and hotels, using public transportation, and attending crowded events. We document a U-shaped pattern of expected future use of these services, with growing pessimism in summer 2020 that had largely reversed by fall 2020—for most groups. More recently, higher-income individuals have indicated that they expect to sharply increase their use of these services compared with their pre-pandemic behaviors, but there has been a notable scarring of expectations among older Americans.
In: Wasserwirtschaft: Hydrologie, Wasserbau, Boden, Ökologie ; Organ der Deutschen Vereinigung für Wasserwirtschaft, Abwasser und Abfall, Band 106, Heft 6, S. 82-85
Masks or cloth face coverings have the potential to help reduce the spread of COVID-19 without greatly disrupting economic activity if they are widely used. To assess the state of mask wearing, we surveyed US consumers about their recent and prospective mask-wearing behavior. We find that most respondents are wearing masks in public but that some respondents are less likely to follow social-distancing guidelines while doing so, indicating a potential tradeoff between two of the recommended methods that jointly reduce coronavirus transmission. While most respondents indicated that they were extremely likely to wear a mask if required by public authorities, the reported likelihood is strongly dependent on age and perceived mask efficacy.
To provide insights into the processes that drive inflationary dynamics, the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland holds an annual conference on the topic of inflation: "Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics." This Commentary summarizes the papers presented at the 2019 conference.
Die gegenwärtige im Kyoto-Protokoll festgelegte Klimapolitik versucht vorrangig, dem Klimawandel mit einer Strategie der Emissionsverminderung zu begegnen. Die dort festgelegten Reduktionsziele für den CO2-Ausstoß sind für viele Länder nicht mehr zu realisieren. Und einige Länder, die zu den größten Emittenten gehören, vor allem die USA, haben sich dem Kyoto-Protokoll nicht angeschlossen. Sollte die Klimapolitik in Zukunft weniger auf Emissionsvermeidung und eher auf eine Anpassung an die Erderwärmung zielen?
The Cleveland Fed's Center for Inflation Research sponsored a session on inflation dynamics at the 2020 CEBRA annual meeting. The presentations focused on inflation expectations and firms' price-setting behavior. This Economic Commentary summarizes the papers presented during the session.
Seit der Finanzkrise hat Kroatien negative Wachstumsraten. Der Brain Drain hochqualifizierter Arbeitskräfte nimmt stetig zu. Die Wirtschaft hat schon seit längerer Zeit starke Einbußen ihrer Wettbewerbsfähigkeit erfahren. Kroatien rangiert diesbezüglich am Ende der Skala der EU-Mitglieder. Das Land befindet sich in einem Reformstau, der überwunden werden muss, damit Kroatien wieder auf einen nachhaltigen Wachstumskurs gelangt. Dieser Sammelband beschreibt eine wirtschaftspolitische Reformagenda für Kroatien. Schwerpunkt der Analysen bilden die Reformfelder Auslandsdirektinvestitionen und Exporte, Wechselkurse, Arbeitsmärkte, private Verschuldung, öffentliche Haushalte, Regulierungen für Unternehmen, Sozialsysteme und Alterssicherung, Humankapital, Technologie und Innovation sowie Infrastruktur mit dem Schwerpunkt Energie. Die zu den einzelnen Bereichen verfassten Analysen wurden in mehreren Workshops unter Beteiligung kroatischer Wissenschaftler und Stakeholder diskutiert und abschließend zu einem integrierten schlüssigen Reformkonzept zusammengefasst.
The future response of the Antarctic ice sheet to rising temperatures remains highly uncertain. A useful period for assessing the sensitivity of Antarctica to warming is the Last Interglacial (LIG) (129 to 116 ky), which experienced warmer polar temperatures and higher global mean sea level (GMSL) (+6 to 9 m) relative to present day. LIG sea level cannot be fully explained by Greenland Ice Sheet melt (similar to 2 m), ocean thermal expansion, and melting mountain glaciers (similar to 1 m), suggesting substantial Antarctic mass loss was initiated by warming of Southern Ocean waters, resulting from a weakening Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in response to North Atlantic surface freshening. Here, we report a blue-ice record of ice sheet and environmental change from the Weddell Sea Embayment at the periphery of the marine-based West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), which is underlain by major methane hydrate reserves. Constrained by a widespread volcanic horizon and supported by ancient microbial DNA analyses, we provide evidence for substantial mass loss across the Weddell Sea Embayment during the LIG, most likely driven by ocean warming and associated with destabilization of subglacial hydrates. Ice sheet modeling supports this interpretation and suggests that millennial-scale warming of the Southern Ocean could have triggered a multimeter rise in global sea levels. Our data indicate that Antarctica is highly vulnerable to projected increases in ocean temperatures and may drive ice-climate feedbacks that further amplify warming. ; Australian Research Council Royal Society of New Zealand Linkage Partner Antarctic Logistics and Expeditions LP120200724 NERC Natural Environment Research Council NE/I027576/1 Coleg Cymraeg Cenedlaethol European Research Council (ERC) Fulbright Commission 259253 Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Japan (MEXT) Japan Society for the Promotion of Science Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Japan (MEXT) 15KK0027 17H06320 Australian Government
The modelling community has identified challenges for the integration and assessment of lake models due to the diversity of modelling approaches and lakes. In this study, we develop and assess a one-dimensional lake model and apply it to 32 lakes from a global observatory network. The data set included lakes over broad ranges in latitude, climatic zones, size, residence time, mixing regime and trophic level. Model performance was evaluated using several error assessment metrics, and a sensitivity analysis was conducted for nine parameters that governed the surface heat exchange and mixing efficiency. There was low correlation between input data uncertainty and model performance and predictions of temperature were less sensitive to model parameters than prediction of thermocline depth and Schmidt stability. The study provides guidance to where the general model approach and associated assumptions work, and cases where adjustments to model parameterisations and/or structure are required. (c) 2017 Published by Elsevier Ltd. ; Australian Research Council (ARC)Australian Research Council [DP130104078, LP130100756] ; GLM development and funding support for LCB, BDB, CB and MRH was provided by the Australian Research Council (ARC) (grants DP130104078 & LP130100756). Additional contributions from individuals and organisations as well as sources of data, provided from a variety of organisations are summarised in Appendix D. This study was made possible through the sharing of ideas, data and models across the AEMON and GLEON networks as well as discussions and working groups held during AEMON workshops and GLEON meetings. ; Public domain authored by a U.S. government employee
