The struggle to belong Dealing with diversity in 21st century urban settings. Amsterdam, 7-9 July 2011 Eye contact, clientele alignment & laissez-faire: the production of public space and neighbourhood in Phnom Penh, Cambodia Thomas Kolnberger(*) Paper presented at the International RC21 conference 2011 Session: Nr. 12 – Belonging, exclusion, public and quasi-public space (*) Université du Luxembourg, Luxembourg, Research Unit IPSE (Identité, Politiques, Sociètes, Espace) Universität Passau, BR Deutschland Southeast Asian Studies thomas.kolnberger@uni.lu Overview Private, public or quasi-public spaces are terms that seem particularly difficult to apply to non-Western societies: as in the 'West', their boundaries are fluid and routinely transgressed, but in ways that are distinctive to the local situation and history. This paper is arguing that these concepts retain practical descriptive power, particularly for the city of Phnom Penh, a case study of demographic extremes, as nearly all her inhabitants could be classified as immigrants. In deed, the Khmer Rouge had forcefully evicted the ca. two million people-strong population of the capital in 1975, virtually erasing all 'bourgeois urbanity' during Pol Pot's Cambodian 'auto-genocide'. After the fall of the regime, the new socialist government slowly repopulated the deserted metropolis with new urban dwellers. Their social and spatial belonging needed to be set up from scratch. "Who belongs to whom" (in terms of political clientelism and patronage), "who is doing what" (regarding face-to-face control and eye contact investigation), and "who owns what" (concerning redistribution and also new original accumulation of capital) were the essential questions in this 'struggle to belong'. In this urban setting, people have been employing a mixed set of strategies for implementing 'belonging' ever since. Based on empirical surveys (mapping & interviews) and research in Cambodian and French colonial archives, this paper presents the constant negotiations of private and public space in a changing economic environment from three angles: - streets, squares, and parks as spaces of interaction: the spatial inheritance of the French colonialism in a new context - the emergence of different types of gated communities since 1975: at first by spatial inclusion strategies generating patronage networks, then by urban planning separating rich from poor - the economy of espionage and imitation of Phnom Penh's retail trade: the neighbours' curious gaze Methodology - The city of Phnom Penh in Cambodia is a case study for a `rush economic evolution´ - This paper aims in one part to highlight the role and influence of place and space for a specific process: the spatial location of business sites in a unique window of opportunity as a self-organizing process `from below´. By applying spatial analysis (GPS mapping), a specific pattern of retail agglomeration and dispersion of this `atomistic´ metropolis could be identified. The analysis is based on fieldwork investigating the use of the city's space for economic ends. 1,000 kilometres of built frontage (`streetscapes´) with 14,647 cases of land use features (e.g. shops, `pavement economy´ etc.) have been surveyed and mapped. Subsequent to this quantitative part, 100 semi-structured interviews and numerous ad hoc conversations were conducted including a dozen of expert interviews (city administration, NGO, city planners). Results and Thesis - The city of Phnom Penh in Cambodia is a case study for a `subsistence urbanization´ - Much economic geography research has focused on the importance of the social context for various transactions. 'Face-to-face contact remains central to coordination of the economy, despite the remarkable reductions in transport costs and the astonishing rise in the complexity and variety of information – verbal, visual and symbolic – which can be communicated near instantly' (Storper and Venables, 2003, p. 43 ). Visual proximity and eye-contact are particularly important in environments of imperfect information, like in Cambodia after Pol Pot. Information was scarce at this time and communication hardware rare. Thus, in Phnom Penh's initial retail business formation, an 'economy of espionage and imitation' provided the necessary information for deal-making, decisions concerning the assortments of goods, prize, and trends. The first merchants and producers were heavily dependent on visual contact 'around the corner' and close contact also proved to be beneficial to customers. This specific knowledge and information externality (an externality or transaction spillover is a cost or benefit, not transmitted through prices) could only be reaped by spatial agglomerations. While screening and socialization of network members and potential partners were essential for the build-up of Cambodia's original clientele-system during the gradual resettlement, visual contact became the decisive steering mechanism for the original distribution of business agglomeration or its dispersion. For a `subsistence urbanization´, the public and quasi-public space are the most important `common-pool resource´. The influx of the population into the city produced a `non-rivalrous´ and `non-excludable´ economic good by the neighbours' curious gaze. - The city of Phnom Penh in Cambodia is a case study for a `spatial club´ - From a New Institutionalism's point of view 'City's neighbourhoods – residential, industrial and commercial clusters – are like firms, nexuses of agreements and understandings about entitlements to share and pooled resources. They differ from firms in that they are spatial clusterings and in that they cluster around resources that remain to varying extents in the public domain. They are like spatial clubs. Members co-operate by various forms of informal and formal rules and agreements in order to ensure the continued supply and enhancement of shared public domain goods. Municipal government is itself a type of club, delivering collectively consumed infrastructure and regulations from a tax on its citizens, firms and visitors. Communities, in the social sense, are also clubs – delivering collectively consumed benefits such as a sense of belonging, security and culture' (Webster and Lai 2003, p. 58). This spontaneous `neighbouring´ as 'rational herding' (Banerjee 1992; Hung and Plott 2001) helped to reduce transaction costs during the initial resettlement process (and beyond). It can be described as a continuous act of self agglomeration of business, creating bazaar-type streets over the whole of the city, which specialise in specific goods and services forming thus, from a bird's view perspective, a `mental retail map´ for the inhabitants. This is one side of building neighbourhoods in Phnom Penh. The base for this laissez-faire et laissez passer behaviorism of the government in (micro)economy was the redistribution of Phnom Penh's real estate amongst trustworthy followers. A `New property Deal´ of first in, first served allocated the built environment piecemeal. In this political economy, two steps are discernable. First, a community-building process regarding the public administration. Each ministry was assigned to a certain area of the city and in a top-down process, starting from the top echelons to the simple civil servants and officials, distributed land and housing. Initially, each responsible could pick `his´ followers and could reward him/her with the allocation of living space, a social structure, which represents a spatially bond replica of the traditional clientelism and patronage-network in Cambodia. These 'strings' (ksae) formed the first neighbourhoods as a kind of `original´ gated community because each administrative unit was planned to be self-sufficient. Each 'cité' (Carrier 2007) was thus clearly demarcated. Its decisions were autonomous, too. In certain areas of Phnom Penh, remnants of this socio-politically gathered community can be found. In a second step, and with increasing immigration, secondary ksae (the mother's cousin, the friend of a friend) proliferated and the city was being `filled up´. Today, the pattern of co-residence in technically secluded areas of Phnom Penh resembles the typical economical founded example of gated communities as neighbourhoods around the world: the rich and the better off separate from the rest. The once moral economy of the civil war and initial post-conflict years is dissolving. Regulation, commodification and the government's efforts to demarcate public and private space is replacing/reducing the common good 'public space'.
Breast cancer (BC) risk for BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers varies by genetic and familial factors. About 50 common variants have been shown to modify BC risk for mutation carriers. All but three, were identified in general population studies. Other mutation carrier-specific susceptibility variants may exist but studies of mutation carriers have so far been underpowered. We conduct a novel case-only genome-wide association study comparing genotype frequencies between 60,212 general population BC cases and 13,007 cases with BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutations. We identify robust novel associations for 2 variants with BC for BRCA1 and 3 for BRCA2 mutation carriers, P < 10-8, at 5 loci, which are not associated with risk in the general population. They include rs60882887 at 11p11.2 where MADD, SP11 and EIF1, genes previously implicated in BC biology, are predicted as potential targets. These findings will contribute towards customising BC polygenic risk scores for BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers. ; BCAC acknowledgements. We thank all the individuals who took part in these studies and all the researchers, clinicians, technicians and administrative staff who have enabled this work to be carried out. ABCFS thank Maggie Angelakos, Judi Maskiell, Gillian Dite. ABCS thanks the Blood bank Sanquin, The Netherlands. ABCTB Investigators: Christine Clarke, Deborah Marsh, Rodney Scott, Robert Baxter, Desmond Yip, Jane Carpenter, Alison Davis, Nirmala Pathmanathan, Peter Simpson, J. Dinny Graham, Mythily Sachchithananthan. Samples are made available to researchers on a non-exclusive basis. BBCS thanks Eileen Williams, Elaine Ryder-Mills, Kara Sargus. BCEES thanks Allyson Thomson, Christobel Saunders, Terry Slevin, BreastScreen Western Australia, Elizabeth Wylie, Rachel Lloyd. The BCINIS study would not have been possible without the contributions of Dr. K. Landsman, Dr. N. Gronich, Dr. A. Flugelman, Dr. W. Saliba, Dr. E. Liani, Dr. I. Cohen, Dr. S. Kalet, Dr. V. Friedman, Dr. O. Barnet of the NICCC in Haifa, and all the contributing family medicine, surgery, pathology and oncology teams in all medical institutes in Northern Israel. The BREOGAN study would not have been possible without the contributions of the following: Manuela Gago-Dominguez, Jose Esteban Castelao, Angel Carracedo, Victor Munoz Garzon, Alejandro Novo Dominguez, Maria Elena Martinez, Sara Miranda Ponte, Carmen Redondo Marey, Maite Pena Fernandez, Manuel Enguix Castelo, Maria Torres, Manuel Calaza (BREOGAN), Jose Antunez, Maximo Fraga and the staff of the Department of Pathology and Biobank of the University Hospital Complex of Santiago-CHUS, Instituto de Investigacion Sanitaria de Santiago, IDIS, Xerencia de Xestion Integrada de Santiago-SERGAS; Joaquin Gonzalez-Carrero and the staff of the Department of Pathology and Biobank of University Hospital Complex of Vigo, Instituto de Investigacion Biomedica Galicia Sur, SERGAS, Vigo, Spain. BSUCH thanks Peter Bugert, Medical Faculty Mannheim. CBCS thanks study participants, co-investigators, collaborators and staff of the Canadian Breast Cancer Study, and project coordinators Agnes Lai and Celine Morissette. CCGP thanks Styliani Apostolaki, Anna Margiolaki, Georgios Nintos, Maria Perraki, Georgia Saloustrou, Georgia Sevastaki, Konstantinos Pompodakis. CGPS thanks staff and participants of the Copenhagen General Population Study. For the excellent technical assistance: Dorthe Uldall Andersen, Maria Birna Arnadottir, Anne Bank, Dorthe Kjeldgard Hansen. The Danish Cancer Biobank is acknowledged for providing infrastructure for the collection of blood samples for the cases. CNIO-BCS thanks Guillermo Pita, Charo Alonso, Nuria alvarez, Pilar Zamora, Primitiva Menendez, the Human Genotyping-CEGEN Unit (CNIO). The CTS Steering Committee includes Leslie Bernstein, Susan Neuhausen, James Lacey, Sophia Wang, Huiyan Ma, and Jessica Clague DeHart at the Beckman Research Institute of City of Hope, Dennis Deapen, Rich Pinder, and Eunjung Lee at the University of Southern California, Pam Horn-Ross, Peggy Reynolds, Christina Clarke Dur and David Nelson at the Cancer Prevention Institute of California, Hoda Anton-Culver, Argyrios Ziogas, and Hannah Park at the University of California Irvine, and Fred Schumacher at Case Western University. DIETCOMPLYF thanks the patients, nurses and clinical staff involved in the study. The DietCompLyf study was funded by the charity Against Breast Cancer (Registered Charity Number 1121258) and the NCRN. We thank the participants and the investigators of EPIC (European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition). ESTHER thanks Hartwig Ziegler, Sonja Wolf, Volker Hermann, Christa Stegmaier, Katja Butterbach. GC-HBOC thanks Stefanie Engert, Heide Hellebrand, Sandra Krober and LIFE - Leipzig Research Centre for Civilization Diseases (Markus Loeffler, Joachim Thiery, Matthias Nuchter, Ronny Baber). The GENICA Network: Dr. Margarete Fischer-Bosch-Institute of Clinical Pharmacology, Stuttgart, and University of Tubingen, Germany [HB, Wing-Yee Lo], German Cancer Consortium (DKTK) and German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ) Partner Site Tubingen [[HB], gefordert durch die Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) im Rahmen der Exzellenzstrategie des Bundes und der Lander - EXC 2180 - 390900677 [HB], Department of Internal Medicine, Evangelische Kliniken Bonn gGmbH, Johanniter Krankenhaus, Bonn, Germany [YDK, Christian Baisch], Institute of Pathology, University of Bonn, Germany [Hans-Peter Fischer], Molecular Genetics of Breast Cancer, Deutsches Krebsforschungszentrum (DKFZ), Heidelberg, Germany [Ute Hamann], Institute for Prevention and Occupational Medicine of the German Social Accident Insurance, Institute of the Ruhr University Bochum (IPA), Bochum, Germany [Thomas Bruning, Beate Pesch, Sylvia Rabstein, Anne Lotz]; and Institute of Occupational Medicine and Maritime Medicine, University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf, Germany [Volker Harth]. HABCS thanks Michael Bremer. HEBCS thanks Kirsimari Aaltonen, Irja Erkkila. HUBCS thanks Shamil Gantsev. KARMA and SASBAC thank the Swedish Medical Research Counsel. KBCP thanks Eija Myohanen, Helena Kemilainen. kConFab/AOCS wish to thank Heather Thorne, Eveline Niedermayr, all the kConFab research nurses and staff, the heads and staff of the Family Cancer Clinics, and the Clinical Follow-Up Study (which has received funding from the NHMRC, the National Breast Cancer Foundation, Cancer Australia, and the National Institute of Health (USA)) for their contributions to this resource, and the many families who contribute to kConFab. LMBC thanks Gilian Peuteman, Thomas Van Brussel, EvyVanderheyden and Kathleen Corthouts. MARIE thanks Petra Seibold, Dieter Flesch-Janys, Judith Heinz, Nadia Obi, Alina Vrieling, Sabine Behrens, Ursula Eilber, Muhabbet Celik, Til Olchers and Stefan Nickels. MBCSG (Milan Breast Cancer Study Group): Mariarosaria Calvello, Davide Bondavalli, Aliana Guerrieri Gonzaga, Monica Marabelli, Irene Feroce, and the personnel of the Cogentech Cancer Genetic Test Laboratory. The MCCS was made possible by the contribution of many people, including the original investigators, the teams that recruited the participants and continue working on follow-up, and the many thousands of Melbourne residents who continue to participate in the study. We thank the coordinators, the research staff and especially the MMHS participants for their continued collaboration on research studies in breast cancer. MSKCC thanks Marina Corines, Lauren Jacobs. MTLGEBCS would like to thank Martine Tranchant (CHU de Quebec - Universite Laval Research Center), Marie-France Valois, Annie Turgeon and Lea Heguy (McGill University Health Center, Royal Victoria Hospital; McGill University) for DNA extraction, sample management and skilful technical assistance. J.S. is Chair holder of the Canada Research Chair in Oncogenetics. NBHS and SBCGS thank study participants and research staff for their contributions and commitment to the studies. For NHS and NHS2 the study protocol was approved by the institutional review boards of the Brigham and Women's Hospital and Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, and those of participating registries as required. We would like to thank the participants and staff of the NHS and NHS2 for their valuable contributions as well as the following state cancer registries for their help: A.L., A.Z., A.R., C.A., C.O., C.T., D.E., F.L., G.A., I.D., I.L., I.N., I.A., K.Y., L.A., M.E., M.D., M.A., M.I., N.E., N.H., N.J., N.Y., N.C., N.D., O.H., O.K., O.R., P.A., R.I., S.C., T.N., T.X., V.A., W.A., and W.Y. The authors assume full responsibility for analyses and interpretation of these data. OFBCR thanks Teresa Selander, Nayana Weerasooriya. ORIGO thanks E. Krol-Warmerdam, and J. Blom for patient accrual, administering questionnaires, and managing clinical information. PBCS thanks Louise Brinton, Mark Sherman, Neonila Szeszenia-Dabrowska, Beata Peplonska, Witold Zatonski, Pei Chao, Michael Stagner. The ethical approval for the POSH study is MREC /00/6/69, UKCRN ID: 1137. We thank staff in the Experimental Cancer Medicine Centre (ECMC) supported Faculty of Medicine Tissue Bank and the Faculty of Medicine DNA Banking resource. RBCS thanks Jannet Blom, Saskia Pelders, Annette Heemskerk and the Erasmus MC Family Cancer Clinic. We thank the SEARCH and EPIC teams. SKKDKFZS thanks all study participants, clinicians, family doctors, researchers and technicians for their contributions and commitment to this study. SZBCS thanks Ewa Putresza. UCIBCS thanks Irene Masunaka. UKBGS thanks Breast Cancer Now and the Institute of Cancer Research for support and funding of the Breakthrough Generations Study, and the study participants, study staff, and the doctors, nurses and other health care providers and health information sources who have contributed to the study. We acknowledge NHS funding to the Royal Marsden/ICR NIHR Biomedical Research Centre. We acknowledge funding to the Manchester NIHR Biomedical Research Centre (IS-BRC-1215-20007). The authors thank the WHI investigators and staff for their dedication and the study participants for making the program possible. CIMBA acknowledgments. All the families and clinicians who contribute to the studies; Catherine M. Phelan for her contribution to CIMBA until she passed away on 22 September 2017; Sue Healey, in particular taking on the task of mutation classification with the late Olga Sinilnikova; Maggie Angelakos, Judi Maskiell, Gillian Dite, Helen Tsimiklis; members and participants in the New York site of the Breast Cancer Family Registry; members and participants in the Ontario Familial Breast Cancer Registry; Vilius Rudaitis and Laimonas Grikeviius; Drs Janis Eglitis, Anna Krilova and Aivars Stengrevics; Yuan Chun Ding and Linda Steele for their work in participant enrollment and biospecimen and data management; Bent Ejlertsen and Anne-Marie Gerdes for the recruitment and genetic counseling of participants; Alicia Barroso, Rosario Alonso and Guillermo Pita; all the individuals and the researchers who took part in CONSIT TEAM (Consorzio Italiano Tumori Ereditari Alla Mammella), in particular: Bernard Peissel, Dario Zimbalatti, Daniela Zaffaroni, Alessandra Viel, Giuseppe Giannini Liliana Varesco, Viviana Gismondi, Maria Grazia Tibiletti, Daniela Furlan, Antonella Savarese, Aline Martayan, Stefania Tommasi, Brunella Pilato and the personnel of the Cogentech Cancer Genetic Test Laboratory, Milan, Italy. Ms. JoEllen Weaver and Dr. Betsy Bove; FPGMX: members of the Cancer Genetics group (IDIS): Marta Santamarina, Miguel Aguado and Olivia Rios; IFE - Leipzig Research Centre for Civilization Diseases (Markus Loeffler, Joachim Thiery, Matthias Nuchter, Ronny Baber); We thank all participants, clinicians, family doctors, researchers, and technicians for their contributions and commitment to the DKFZ study and the collaborating groups in Lahore, Pakistan (Noor Muhammad, Sidra Gull, Seerat Bajwa, Faiz Ali Khan, Humaira Naeemi, Saima Faisal, Asif Loya, Mohammed Aasim Yusuf) and Bogota, Colombia (Ignacio Briceno, Fabian Gil). Genetic Modifiers of Cancer Risk in BRCA1/2 Mutation Carriers (GEMO) study is a study from the National Cancer Genetics Network UNICANCER Genetic Group, France. We wish to pay a tribute to Olga M. Sinilnikova, who with Dominique Stoppa-Lyonnet initiated and coordinated GEMO until she sadly passed away on the 30th June 2014. The team in Lyon (Olga Sinilnikova, Melanie Leone, Laure Barjhoux, Carole Verny-Pierre, Sylvie Mazoyer, Francesca Damiola, Valerie Sornin) managed the GEMO samples until the biological resource centre was transferred to Paris in December 2015 (Noura Mebirouk, Fabienne Lesueur, Dominique Stoppa-Lyonnet). We want to thank all the GEMO collaborating groups for their contribution to this study: Coordinating Centre, Service de Genetique, Institut Curie, Paris, France: Muriel Belotti, Ophelie Bertrand, Anne-Marie Birot, Bruno Buecher, Sandrine Caputo, Anais Dupre, Emmanuelle Fourme, Marion Gauthier-Villars, Lisa Golmard, Claude Houdayer, Marine Le Mentec, Virginie Moncoutier, Antoine de Pauw, Claire Saule, Dominique Stoppa-Lyonnet, and Inserm U900, Institut Curie, Paris, France: Fabienne Lesueur, Noura Mebirouk. Contributing Centres: Unite Mixte de Genetique Constitutionnelle des Cancers Frequents, Hospices Civils de Lyon - Centre Leon Berard, Lyon, France: Nadia Boutry-Kryza, Alain Calender, Sophie Giraud, Melanie Leone. Institut Gustave Roussy, Villejuif, France: Brigitte Bressac-de-Paillerets, Olivier Caron, Marine Guillaud-Bataille. Centre Jean Perrin, Clermont-Ferrand, France: Yves-Jean Bignon, Nancy Uhrhammer. Centre Leon Berard, Lyon, France: Valerie Bonadona, Christine Lasset. Centre Francois Baclesse, Caen, France: Pascaline Berthet, Laurent Castera, Dominique Vaur. Institut Paoli Calmettes, Marseille, France: Violaine Bourdon, Catherine Nogues, Tetsuro Noguchi, Cornel Popovici, Audrey Remenieras, Hagay Sobol. CHU Arnaud-de-Villeneuve, Montpellier, France: Isabelle Coupier, Pascal Pujol. Centre Oscar Lambret, Lille, France: Claude Adenis, Aurelie Dumont, Francoise Revillion. Centre Paul Strauss, Strasbourg, France: Daniele Muller. Institut Bergonie, Bordeaux, France: Emmanuelle Barouk-Simonet, Francoise Bonnet, Virginie Bubien, Michel Longy, Nicolas Sevenet, Institut Claudius Regaud, Toulouse, France: Laurence Gladieff, Rosine Guimbaud, Viviane Feillel, Christine Toulas. CHU Grenoble, France: Helene Dreyfus, Christine Dominique Leroux, Magalie Peysselon, Rebischung. CHU Dijon, France: Amandine Baurand, Geoffrey Bertolone, Fanny Coron, Laurence Faivre, Caroline Jacquot, Sarab Lizard. CHU St-Etienne, France: Caroline Kientz, Marine Lebrun, Fabienne Prieur. Hotel Dieu Centre Hospitalier, Chambery, France: Sandra Fert Ferrer. Centre Antoine Lacassagne, Nice, France: Veronique Mari. CHU Limoges, France: Laurence Venat-Bouvet. CHU Nantes, France: Stephane Bezieau, Capucine Delnatte. CHU Bretonneau, Tours and Centre Hospitalier de Bourges France: Isabelle Mortemousque. Groupe Hospitalier Pitie-Salpetriere, Paris, France: Chrystelle Colas, Florence Coulet, Florent Soubrier, Mathilde Warcoin. CHU Vandoeuvre-les-Nancy, France: Myriam Bronner, Johanna Sokolowska. CHU Besancon, France: Marie-Agnes Collonge-Rame, Alexandre Damette. CHU Poitiers, Centre Hospitalier d'Angouleme and Centre Hospitalier de Niort, France: Paul Gesta. Centre Hospitalier de La Rochelle: Hakima Lallaoui. CHU Nimes Caremeau, France: Jean Chiesa. CHI Poissy, France: Denise Molina-Gomes. CHU Angers, France: Olivier Ingster; Ilse Coene en Brecht Crombez; Ilse Coene and Brecht Crombez; Alicia Tosar and Paula Diaque; Drs.Sofia Khan, Taru A. Muranen, Carl Blomqvist, Irja Erkkila and Virpi Palola; The Hereditary Breast and Ovarian Cancer Research Group Netherlands (HEBON) consists of the following Collaborating Centers: Coordinating center: Netherlands Cancer Institute, Amsterdam, NL: M.A. Rookus, F.B.L. Hogervorst, F.E. van Leeuwen, S. Verhoef, M.K. Schmidt, N.S. Russell, D.J. Jenner; Erasmus Medical Center, Rotterdam, NL: J.M. Collee, A.M.W. van den Ouweland, M.J. Hooning, C. Seynaeve, C.H.M. van Deurzen, I.M. Obdeijn; Leiden University Medical Center, NL: C.J. van Asperen, J.T. Wijnen, R.A.E.M. Tollenaar, P. Devilee, T.C.T.E.F. van Cronenburg; Radboud University Nijmegen Medical Center, NL: C.M. Kets, A.R. Mensenkamp; University Medical Center Utrecht, NL: M.G.E.M. Ausems, R.B. van der Luijt, C.C. van der Pol; Amsterdam Medical Center, NL: C.M. Aalfs, T.A.M. van Os; VU University Medical Center, Amsterdam, NL: J.J.P. Gille, Q. Waisfisz, H.E.J. Meijers-Heijboer; University Hospital Maastricht, NL: E.B. Gomez-Garcia, M.J. Blok; University Medical Center Groningen, NL: J.C. Oosterwijk, A.H. van der Hout, M.J. Mourits, G.H. de Bock; The Netherlands Foundation for the detection of hereditary tumours, Leiden, NL: H.F. Vasen; The Netherlands Comprehensive Cancer Organization (IKNL): S. Siesling, J.Verloop; the ICO Hereditary Cancer Program team led by Dr. Gabriel Capella; the ICO Hereditary Cancer Program team led by Dr. Gabriel Capella; Dr Martine Dumont for sample management and skillful assistance; Ana Peixoto, Catarina Santos and Pedro Pinto; members of the Center of Molecular Diagnosis, Oncogenetics Department and Molecular Oncology Research Center of Barretos Cancer Hospital; Heather Thorne, Eveline Niedermayr, all the kConFab research nurses and staff, the heads and staff of the Family Cancer Clinics, and the Clinical Follow-Up Study (which has received funding from the NHMRC, the National Breast Cancer Foundation, Cancer Australia, and the National Institute of Health (USA)) for their contributions to this resource, and the many families who contribute to kConFab; the investigators of the Australia New Zealand NRG Oncology group; members and participants in the Ontario Cancer Genetics Network; Leigha Senter, Kevin Sweet, Caroline Craven, Julia Cooper, Amber Aielts, and Michelle O'Conor; HVH: acknowledgments to the Cellex Foundation for providing research facilities and equipment. Dr Juliette Coignard was supported by a fellowship of INCa Institut National du Cancer N degrees 2015-181, la Ligue Nationale contre le Cancer IP/SC-15229 and Olga Sinilnikova's fellowship (2016). BCAC Funding. BCAC is funded by Cancer Research UK [C1287/A16563, C1287/A10118], the European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme (grant numbers 634935 and 633784 for BRIDGES and B-CAST respectively), and by the European Communitys Seventh Framework Programme under grant agreement number 223175 (grant number HEALTH-F2-2009-223175) (COGS). The EU Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme funding source had no role in study design, data collection, data analysis, data interpretation or writing of the report. Genotyping of the OncoArray was funded by the NIH Grant U19 CA148065, and Cancer UK Grant C1287/A16563 and the PERSPECTIVE project supported by the Government of Canada through Genome Canada and the Canadian Institutes of Health Research (grant GPH-129344) and, the Ministere de l'Economie, Science et Innovation du Quebec through Genome Quebec and the PSRSIIRI-701 grant, and the Quebec Breast Cancer Foundation. The Australian Breast Cancer Family Study (ABCFS) was supported by grant UM1 CA164920 from the National Cancer Institute (USA). The content of this manuscript does not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the National Cancer Institute or any of the collaborating centers in the Breast Cancer Family Registry (BCFR), nor does mention of trade names, commercial products, or organizations imply endorsement by the USA Government or the BCFR. The ABCFS was also supported by the National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia, the New South Wales Cancer Council, the Victorian Health Promotion Foundation (Australia) and the Victorian Breast Cancer Research Consortium. J.L.H. is a National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Senior Principal Research Fellow. M.C.S. is a NHMRC Senior Research Fellow. The ABCS study was supported by the Dutch Cancer Society [grants NKI 2007-3839; 2009 4363]. The Australian Breast Cancer Tissue Bank (ABCTB) was supported by the National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia, The Cancer Institute NSW and the National Breast Cancer Foundation. The work of the BBCC was partly funded by ELAN-Fond of the University Hospital of Erlangen. The BBCS is funded by Cancer Research UK and Breast Cancer Now and acknowledges NHS funding to the NIHR Biomedical Research Centre, and the National Cancer Research Network (NCRN). The BCEES was funded by the National Health and Medical Research Council, Australia and the Cancer Council Western Australia and acknowledges funding from the National Breast Cancer Foundation (JS). For the BCFR-NY, BCFR-PA, BCFR-UT this work was supported by grant UM1 CA164920 from the National Cancer Institute. The content of this manuscript does not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the National Cancer Institute or any of the collaborating centers in the Breast Cancer Family Registry (BCFR), nor does mention of trade names, commercial products, or organizations imply endorsement by the US Government or the BCFR. The BREast Oncology GAlician Network (BREOGAN) is funded by Accion Estrategica de Salud del Instituto de Salud Carlos III FIS PI12/02125/Cofinanciado FEDER; Accion Estrategica de Salud del Instituto de Salud Carlos III FIS Intrasalud (PI13/01136); Programa Grupos Emergentes, Cancer Genetics Unit, Instituto de Investigacion Biomedica Galicia Sur. Xerencia de Xestion Integrada de Vigo-SERGAS, Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Spain; Grant 10CSA012E, Conselleria de Industria Programa Sectorial de Investigacion Aplicada, PEME I + D e I + D Suma del Plan Gallego de Investigacion, Desarrollo e Innovacion Tecnologica de la Conselleria de Industria de la Xunta de Galicia, Spain; Grant EC11-192. Fomento de la Investigacion Clinica Independiente, Ministerio de Sanidad, Servicios Sociales e Igualdad, Spain; and Grant FEDER-Innterconecta. Ministerio de Economia y Competitividad, Xunta de Galicia, Spain. The BSUCH study was supported by the Dietmar-Hopp Foundation, the Helmholtz Society and the German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ). CBCS is funded by the Canadian Cancer Society (grant # 313404) and the Canadian Institutes of Health Research. CCGP is supported by funding from the University of Crete. The CECILE study was supported by Fondation de France, Institut National du Cancer (INCa), Ligue Nationale contre le Cancer, Agence Nationale de Securite Sanitaire, de l'Alimentation, de l'Environnement et du Travail (ANSES), Agence Nationale de la Recherche (ANR). The CGPS was supported by the Chief Physician Johan Boserup and Lise Boserup Fund, the Danish Medical Research Council, and Herlev and Gentofte Hospital. The CNIO-BCS was supported by the Instituto de Salud Carlos III, the Red Tematica de Investigacion Cooperativa en Cancer and grants from the Asociacion Espanola Contra el Cancer and the Fondo de Investigacion Sanitario (PI11/00923 and PI12/00070). The CTS was initially supported by the California Breast Cancer Act of 1993 and the California Breast Cancer Research Fund (contract 97-10500) and is currently funded through the National Institutes of Health (R01 CA77398, UM1 CA164917, and U01 CA199277). Collection of cancer incidence data was supported by the California Department of Public Health as part of the statewide cancer reporting program mandated by California Health and Safety Code Section 103885. The University of Westminster curates the DietCompLyf database funded by Against Breast Cancer Registered Charity No. 1121258 and the NCRN. The coordination of EPIC is financially supported by the European Commission (DG-SANCO) and the International Agency for Research on Cancer. The national cohorts are supported by: Ligue Contre le Cancer, Institut Gustave Roussy, Mutuelle Generale de l'Education Nationale, Institut National de la Sante et de la Recherche Medicale (INSERM) (France); German Cancer Aid, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) (Germany); the Hellenic Health Foundation, the Stavros Niarchos Foundation (Greece); Associazione Italiana per la Ricerca sul Cancro-AIRC-Italy and National Research Council (Italy); Dutch Ministry of Public Health, Welfare and Sports (VWS), Netherlands Cancer Registry (NKR), LK Research Funds, Dutch Prevention Funds, Dutch ZON (Zorg Onderzoek Nederland), World Cancer Research Fund (WCRF), Statistics Netherlands (The Netherlands); Health Research Fund (FIS), PI13/00061 to Granada, PI13/01162 to EPIC-Murcia, Regional Governments of Andalucia, Asturias, Basque Country, Murcia and Navarra, ISCIII RETIC (RD06/0020) (Spain); Cancer Research UK (14136 to EPIC-Norfolk; C570/A16491 and C8221/A19170 to EPIC-Oxford), Medical Research Council (1000143 to EPIC-Norfolk, MR/M012190/1 to EPIC-Oxford) (United Kingdom). The ESTHER study was supported by a grant from the Baden Wurttemberg Ministry of Science, Research and Arts. Additional cases were recruited in the context of the VERDI study, which was supported by a grant from the German Cancer Aid (Deutsche Krebshilfe). The GC-HBOC (German Consortium of Hereditary Breast and Ovarian Cancer) is supported by the German Cancer Aid (grant no 110837, coordinator: Rita K. Schmutzler, Cologne). This work was also funded by the European Regional Development Fund and Free State of Saxony, Germany (LIFE - Leipzig Research Centre for Civilization Diseases, project numbers 713-241202, 713-241202, 14505/2470, 14575/2470). The GENICA was funded by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) Germany grants 01KW9975/5, 01KW9976/8, 01KW9977/0 and 01KW0114, the Robert Bosch Foundation, Stuttgart, Deutsches Krebsforschungszentrum (DKFZ), Heidelberg, the Institute for Prevention and Occupational Medicine of the German Social Accident Insurance, Institute of the Ruhr University Bochum (IPA), Bochum, as well as the Department of Internal Medicine, Evangelische Kliniken Bonn gGmbH, Johanniter Krankenhaus, Bonn, Germany. The GESBC was supported by the Deutsche Krebshilfe e. V. [70492] and the German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ). The HABCS study was supported by the Claudia von Schilling Foundation for Breast Cancer Research, by the Lower Saxonian Cancer Society, and by the Rudolf Bartling Foundation. The HEBCS was financially supported by the Helsinki UniversityHospital Research Fund, the Finnish Cancer Society, and the Sigrid Juselius Foundation. The HUBCS was supported by a grant from the German Federal Ministry of Research and Education (RUS08/017), and by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research and the Federal Agency for Scientific Organizations for support the Bioresource collections and RFBR grants 14-04-97088, 17-29-06014 and 17-44-020498. Financial support for KARBAC was provided through the regional agreement on medical training and clinical research (ALF) between Stockholm County Council and Karolinska Institutet, the Swedish Cancer Society, The Gustav V Jubilee foundation and Bert von Kantzows foundation. The KARMA study was supported by Marit and Hans Rausings Initiative Against Breast Cancer. The KBCP was financially supported by the special Government Funding (EVO) of Kuopio University Hospital grants, Cancer Fund of North Savo, the Finnish Cancer Organizations, and by the strategic funding of the University of Eastern Finland. kConFab is supported by a grant from the National Breast Cancer Foundation, and previously by the National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC), the Queensland Cancer Fund, the Cancer Councils of New South Wales, Victoria, Tasmania and South Australia, and the Cancer Foundation of Western Australia. Financial support for the AOCS was provided by the United States Army Medical Research and Materiel Command [DAMD17-01-1-0729], Cancer Council Victoria, Queensland Cancer Fund, Cancer Council New South Wales, Cancer Council South Australia, The Cancer Foundation of Western Australia, Cancer Council Tasmania and the National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia (NHMRC; 400413, 400281, 199600). G.C.T. and P.W. are supported by the NHMRC. RB was a Cancer Institute NSW Clinical Research Fellow. LMBC is supported by the 'Stichting tegen Kanker'. The MARIE study was supported by the Deutsche Krebshilfe e.V. [70-2892-BR I, 106332, 108253, 108419, 110826, 110828], the Hamburg Cancer Society, the German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ) and the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) Germany [01KH0402]. MBCSG is supported by grants from the Italian Association for Cancer Research (AIRC; IG2014 no.15547) to P. Radice. The MCBCS was supported by the NIH grants CA192393, CA116167, CA176785 an NIH Specialized Program of Research Excellence (SPORE) in Breast Cancer [CA116201], and the Breast Cancer Research Foundation and a generous gift from the David F. and Margaret T. Grohne Family Foundation. The Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study (MCCS) cohort recruitment was funded by VicHealth and Cancer Council Victoria. The MCCS was further augmented by Australian National Health and Medical Research Council grants 209057, 396414 and 1074383 and by infrastructure provided by Cancer Council Victoria. Cases and their vital status were ascertained through the Victorian Cancer Registry and the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, including the National Death Index and the Australian Cancer Database. The MEC was support by NIH grants CA63464, CA54281, CA098758, CA132839 and CA164973. The MISS study is supported by funding from ERC-2011-294576 Advanced grant, Swedish Cancer Society, Swedish Research Council, Local hospital funds, Berta Kamprad Foundation, Gunnar Nilsson. The MMHS study was supported by NIH grants CA97396, CA128931, CA116201, CA140286 and CA177150. MSKCC is supported by grants from the Breast Cancer Research Foundation and Robert and Kate Niehaus Clinical Cancer Genetics Initiative. The work of MTLGEBCS was supported by the Quebec Breast Cancer Foundation, the Canadian Institutes of Health Research for the CIHR Team in Familial Risks of Breast Cancer program - grant # CRN-87521 and the Ministry of Economic Development, Innovation and Export Trade - grant # PSR-SIIRI-701. The NBHS was supported by NIH grant R01CA100374. Biological sample preparation was conducted the Survey and Biospecimen Shared Resource, which is supported by P30 CA68485. The Northern California Breast Cancer Family Registry (NC-BCFR) and Ontario Familial Breast Cancer Registry (OFBCR) were supported by grant UM1 CA164920 from the National Cancer Institute (USA). The content of this manuscript does not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the National Cancer Institute or any of the collaborating centers in the Breast Cancer Family Registry (BCFR), nor does mention of trade names, commercial products, or organizations imply endorsement by the USA Government or the BCFR. The Carolina Breast Cancer Study was funded by Komen Foundation, the National Cancer Institute (P50 CA058223, U54 CA156733, U01 CA179715), and the North Carolina University Cancer Research Fund. The NHS was supported by NIH grants P01 CA87969, UM1 CA186107, and U19 CA148065. The NHS2 was supported by NIH grants UM1 CA176726 and U19 CA148065. The ORIGO study was supported by the Dutch Cancer Society (RUL 1997-1505) and the Biobanking and Biomolecular Resources Research Infrastructure (BBMRI-NL CP16). The PBCS was funded by Intramural Research Funds of the National Cancer Institute, Department of Health and Human Services, USA. Genotyping for PLCO was supported by the Intramural Research Program of the National Institutes of Health, NCI, Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics. The PLCO is supported by the Intramural Research Program of the Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics and supported by contracts from the Division of Cancer Prevention, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health. The POSH study is funded by Cancer Research UK (grants C1275/A11699, C1275/C22524, C1275/A19187, C1275/A15956 and Breast Cancer Campaign 2010PR62, 2013PR044. The RBCS was funded by the Dutch Cancer Society (DDHK 2004-3124, DDHK 2009-4318. SEARCH is funded by Cancer Research UK [C490/A10124, C490/A16561] and supported by the UK National Institute for Health Research Biomedical Research Centre at the University of Cambridge. The University of Cambridge has received salary support for PDPP from the NHS in the East of England through the Clinical Academic Reserve. The Sister Study (SISTER) is supported by the Intramural Research Program of the NIH, National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (Z01-ES044005 and Z01-ES049033). The Two Sister Study (2SISTER) was supported by the Intramural Research Program of the NIH, National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (Z01-ES044005 and Z01-ES102245), and, also by a grant from Susan G. Komen for the Cure, grant FAS0703856. SKKDKFZS is supported by the DKFZ. The SMC is funded by the Swedish Cancer Foundation and the Swedish Research Council (VR 2017-00644) grant for the Swedish Infrastructure for Medical Population-based Life-course Environmental Research (SIMPLER). The SZBCS and IHCC were supported by Grant PBZ_KBN_122/P05/2004 and the program of the Minister of Science and Higher Education under the name Regional Initiative of Excellence in 2019-2022 project number 002/RID/2018/19 amount of financing 12 000 000 PLN. The TNBCC was supported by: a Specialized Program of Research Excellence (SPORE) in Breast Cancer (CA116201), a grant from the Breast Cancer Research Foundation, a generous gift from the David F. and Margaret T. Grohne Family Foundation. The UCIBCS component of this research was supported by the NIH [CA58860, CA92044] and the Lon V Smith Foundation [LVS39420]. The UKBGS is funded by Breast Cancer Now and the Institute of Cancer Research (ICR), London. The UKOPS study was funded by The Eve Appeal (The Oak Foundation) and supported by the National Institute for Health Research University College London Hospitals Biomedical Research Centre. CIMBA Funding. CIMBA: The CIMBA data management and data analysis were supported by Cancer Research - UK grants C12292/A20861, C12292/A11174. GCT and ABS are NHMRC Research Fellows. iCOGS: the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme under grant agreement no 223175 (HEALTH-F2-2009-223175) (COGS), Cancer Research UK (C1287/A10118, C1287/A 10710, C12292/A11174, C1281/A12014, C5047/A8384, C5047/A15007, C5047/A10692, C8197/A16565), the National Institutes of Health (CA128978) and Post-Cancer GWAS initiative (1U19 CA148537, 1U19 CA148065 and 1U19 CA148112 - the GAME-ON initiative), the Department of Defence (W81XWH-10-1-0341), the Canadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR) for the CIHR Team in Familial Risks of Breast Cancer (CRN-87521), and the Ministry of Economic Development, Innovation and Export Trade (PSR-SIIRI-701), Komen Foundation for the Cure, the Breast Cancer Research Foundation, and the Ovarian Cancer Research Fund. The PERSPECTIVE project was supported by the Government of Canada through Genome Canada and the Canadian Institutes of Health Research, the Ministry of Economy, Science and Innovation through Genome Quebec, and The Quebec Breast Cancer Foundation. BCFR: UM1 CA164920 from the National Cancer Institute. The content of this manuscript does not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the National Cancer Institute or any of the collaborating centers in the Breast Cancer Family Registry (BCFR), nor does mention of trade names, commercial products, or organizations imply endorsement by the US Government or the BCFR. BIDMC: Breast Cancer Research Foundation. CNIO: Spanish Ministry of Health PI16/00440 supported by FEDER funds, the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (MINECO) SAF2014-57680-R and the Spanish Research Network on Rare diseases (CIBERER). COH-CCGCRN: Research reported in this publication was supported by the National Cancer Institute of the National Institutes of Health under grant number R25CA112486, and RC4CA153828 (PI: J. Weitzel) from the National Cancer Institute and the Office of the Director, National Institutes of Health. The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of the National Institutes of Health. CONSIT TEAM: Funds from Italian citizens who allocated the 5x1000 share of their tax payment in support of the Fondazione IRCCS Istituto Nazionale Tumori, according to Italian laws (INT-Institutional strategic projects '5x1000') to S. Manoukian. Associazione Italiana Ricerca sul Cancro (AIRC; IG2015 no.16732) to P. Peterlongo. DEMOKRITOS: European Union (European Social Fund - ESF) and Greek national funds through the Operational Program Education and Lifelong Learning of the National Strategic Reference Framework (NSRF) - Research Funding Program of the General Secretariat for Research & Technology: SYN11_10_19 NBCA. Investing in knowledge society through the European Social Fund. DKFZ: German Cancer Research Center. EMBRACE: Cancer Research UK Grants C1287/A10118 and C1287/A11990. D. Gareth Evans and Fiona Lalloo are supported by an NIHR grant to the Biomedical Research Centre, Manchester. The Investigators at The Institute of Cancer Research and The Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust are supported by an NIHR grant to the Biomedical Research Centre at The Institute of Cancer Research and The Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust. Ros Eeles and Elizabeth Bancroft are supported by Cancer Research UK Grant C5047/A8385. Ros Eeles is also supported by NIHR support to the Biomedical Research Centre at The Institute of Cancer Research and The Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust. FCCC: A.K.G. was in part funded by the NCI (R01 CA214545), The University of Kansas Cancer Center Support Grant (P30 CA168524), The Kansas Institute for Precision Medicine (P20 GM130423), and the Kansas Bioscience Authority Eminent Scholar Program. A.K.G. is the Chancellors Distinguished Chair in Biomedical Sciences Professorship. A.Vega is supported by the Spanish Health Research Foundation, Instituto de Salud Carlos III (ISCIII), partially supported by FEDER funds through Research Activity Intensification Program (contract grant numbers: INT15/00070, INT16/00154, INT17/00133), and through Centro de Investigacion Biomedica en Red de Enferemdades Raras CIBERER (ACCI 2016: ER17P1AC7112/2018); Autonomous Government of Galicia (Consolidation and structuring program: IN607B), and by the Fundacion Mutua Madrilena (call 2018). GC-HBOC: German Cancer Aid (grant no 110837, Rita K. Schmutzler) and the European Regional Development Fund and Free State of Saxony, Germany (LIFE - Leipzig Research Centre for Civilization Diseases, project numbers 713-241202, 713-241202, 14505/2470, 14575/2470). GEMO: Ligue Nationale Contre le Cancer; the Association Le cancer du sein, parlons-en! Award, the Canadian Institutes of Health Research for the CIHR Team in Familial Risks of Breast Cancer program and the French National Institute of Cancer (INCa grants 2013-1-BCB-01-ICH-1 and SHS-E-SP 18-015). GEORGETOWN: the Non-Therapeutic Subject Registry Shared Resource at Georgetown University (NIH/NCI grant P30-CA051008), the Fisher Center for Hereditary Cancer and Clinical Genomics Research, and Swing Fore the Cure. G-FAST: Bruce Poppe is a senior clinical investigator of FWO. Mattias Van Heetvelde obtained funding from IWT. HCSC: Spanish Ministry of Health PI15/00059, PI16/01292, and CB-161200301 CIBERONC from ISCIII (Spain), partially supported by European Regional Development FEDER funds. HEBCS: Helsinki University Hospital Research Fund, the Finnish Cancer Society and the Sigrid Juselius Foundation. HEBON: the Dutch Cancer Society grants NKI1998-1854, NKI2004-3088, NKI2007-3756, the Netherlands Organization of Scientific Research grant NWO 91109024, the Pink Ribbon grants 110005 and 2014-187.WO76, the BBMRI grant NWO 184.021.007/CP46 and the Transcan grant JTC 2012 Cancer 12-054. HEBON thanks the registration teams of Dutch Cancer Registry (IKNL; S. Siesling, J. Verloop) and the Dutch Pathology database (PALGA; L. Overbeek) for part of the data collection. ICO: The authors would like to particularly acknowledge the support of the Asociacion Espanola Contra el Cancer (AECC), the Instituto de Salud Carlos III (organismo adscrito al Ministerio de Economia y Competitividad) and Fondo Europeo de Desarrollo Regional (FEDER), una manera de hacer Europa (PI10/01422, PI13/00285, PIE13/00022, PI15/00854, PI16/00563 and CIBERONC) and the Institut Catala de la Salut and Autonomous Government of Catalonia (2009SGR290, 2014SGR338 and PERIS Project MedPerCan). INHERIT: Canadian Institutes of Health Research for the CIHR Team in Familial Risks of Breast Cancer program - grant # CRN-87521 and the Ministry of Economic Development, Innovation and Export Trade - grant # PSR-SIIRI-701. IOVHBOCS: Ministero della Salute and 5x1000 Istituto Oncologico Veneto grant. kConFab: The National Breast Cancer Foundation, and previously by the National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC), the Queensland Cancer Fund, the Cancer Councils of New South Wales, Victoria, Tasmania and South Australia, and the Cancer Foundation of Western Australia. MAYO: NIH grants CA116167, CA192393 and CA176785, an NCI Specialized Program of Research Excellence (SPORE) in Breast Cancer (CA116201),and a grant from the Breast Cancer Research Foundation. MCGILL: Jewish General Hospital Weekend to End Breast Cancer, Quebec Ministry of Economic Development, Innovation and Export Trade. Marc Tischkowitz is supported by the funded by the European Union Seventh Framework Program (2007Y2013)/European Research Council (Grant No. 310018). MSKCC: the Breast Cancer Research Foundation, the Robert and Kate Niehaus Clinical Cancer Genetics Initiative, the Andrew Sabin Research Fund and a Cancer Center Support Grant/Core Grant (P30 CA008748). NCI: the Intramural Research Program of the US National Cancer Institute, NIH, and by support services contracts NO2-CP-11019-50, N02-CP-21013-63 and N02-CP-65504 with Westat, Inc, Rockville, MD. NNPIO: the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (grants 17-00-00171, 18-515-45012 and 19-515-25001). NRG Oncology: U10 CA180868, NRG SDMC grant U10 CA180822, NRG Administrative Office and the NRG Tissue Bank (CA 27469), the NRG Statistical and Data Center (CA 37517) and the Intramural Research Program, NCI. OSUCCG: Ohio State University Comprehensive Cancer Center. PBCS: Italian Association of Cancer Research (AIRC) [IG 2013 N.14477] and Tuscany Institute for Tumours (ITT) grant 2014-2015-2016. SMC: the Israeli Cancer Association. SWE-BRCA: the Swedish Cancer Society. UCHICAGO: NCI Specialized Program of Research Excellence (SPORE) in Breast Cancer (CA125183), R01 CA142996, 1U01CA161032 and by the Ralph and Marion Falk Medical Research Trust, the Entertainment Industry Fund National Women's Cancer Research Alliance and the Breast Cancer research Foundation. UCSF: UCSF Cancer Risk Program and Helen Diller Family Comprehensive Cancer Center. UPENN: Breast Cancer Research Foundation; Susan G. Komen Foundation for the cure, Basser Research Center for BRCA. UPITT/MWH: Hackers for Hope Pittsburgh. VFCTG: Victorian Cancer Agency, Cancer Australia, National Breast Cancer Foundation. WCP: Dr Karlan is funded by the American Cancer Society Early Detection Professorship (SIOP-06-258-01-COUN) and the National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences (NCATS), Grant UL1TR000124. HVH: Supported by the Carlos III National Health Institute funded by FEDER funds - a way to build Europe - PI16/11363. MT Parsons is supported by a grant from Newcastle University. Kelly-Anne Phillips is an Australian National Breast Cancer Foundation Fellow. ; Sí
HAY, 1906 1T0L. XIT. HO. 3 GETTYSBURG COLLEGE GETTYSBURG, PA. i »»^wiiw»ir^Ww>BffwwuWiii>ii come; and there too we become subject to the great discipline of suffering from which we learn how to meet the real prob-lems of life. Some time ago a contractor of New York City, advertised for twenty five laborers at two dollars a day. Within a (ew hours scores of applicancs thronged his office, until it became almost an angry mob. Each one attempted to make applica-tion before his competitors, and in that way increase his chances lor appointment. This contractor at the same time advertised for a high class specialist to manage a branch of the work, wages twenty-five dollars a day. Days passed and not one man made application. The difference between the re-quirements of the two positions was largely a difference of ex-perience. What the polishing is to the beauty of a diamond discipline and experience are to the usefulness of a life. The experience of nations again and again have shown that an army is of value in active service only to the extent that it is well equipped and trained So the life of an individual is of true value to the world in so far as the powers of that life are cultivated to perform such service as will contribute to the bet-terment of mankind. The man made wise by experience endeavors to judge cor-rectly of the things which come under his observation, and form the thoughts of his daily life. " What we call common sense is for the most part, but the result of common experience wisely improved." The whole of life may be regarded as a great school of experience in which men and women are the pupils. The world today sends forth the cry for men and women of experience, men who are trained and equipped for action. The apprenticeship of difficulty is one which the greatest of men have to serve. It is a good stimulus and discipline of THE MERCURV. 73 character. It often brings forth powers that without it would have remained dormant. Just as an electric current passing through a wire requires resistance in order to produce light and heat, so men are often caused to shine brightly in some chosen profession or work because of the resistance they en-counter. It seems as if in the lives of some, the sharp and sudden blow of adversity is required to bring out the divine spark. There are natures that blossom and ripen amidst trial that would only wither and decay in an atmosphere of ease, and comfort Some men only require a great difficulty set in theif way to exhibit the force of their character and genius ; and that diffi-culty once conquered becomes the greatest incentive to their future progress. When a boy fourteen years of age Joseph Lancaster after reading " Clarkson on the Slave Trade " formed the resolution of leaving his home and going to the West In-dies to teach the poor Blacks to read the Bible. He set out with a Bible and " Pilgrims Progress " in his valise, and a few shillings in his purse. The difficulties he encountered were al-most beyond conception, yet they were only a means of strengthening his courage. Soon one thousand pupils were under his instructions. Above the door of his school room were written the words—" If people will not send their chil-dren to school here and have them educated free they may pay for it." Thus Joseph Lancaster was one of the precursors of our present system of National Education. Men do not always succeed through success; they much oftener succeed through failure. Many have to make up their minds to encounter failure again and again before they succeed. Talma the great actor was hissed off the stage when he first appeared. Montalembert said of his first public appearance in the church of St. Roch, " I failed completely," and coming out every one said, " Though he be a man of talent he will never be a preacher." He made one attempt after another until he succeeded; and two years after was preaching to large audiences. Each mind makes its own little world. The cheerful mind makes it pleasant, the discontented mind makes it miserable. n JLiiiiiiiMiL i Z 1 74 THE MERCURY. " My mind to me a kingdom is " applies the same to the peas-ant as to the monarch. Life is for the most part but the mirror of our own individual selves; and he who regards it as a sphere of useful efforts of working for others good as well as his own will find this earthly existence joyful, hopeful, and blessed. AN HITHERTO UNPUBLISHED SCENE FROM ROMEO AND JULIET. S. E. SMITH, '07. SCENE—A Street in Venice. Enter Benvolio and Mercutio. Ben. The sun now sinks and ends the rule of day, And night her sable mantle spreads abroad, Save where the moon doth rend her dark'ning folds, And stars like moths do pierce her sombre woof. Mer. .Through my blue veins a sultry flood doth pour Encouraged by the blazing orb of day And should old Capulet and his fell fiends Approach, my swora should feed his hungry point. Marry ! I would give them what ardent Sol Doth thrust into my blood, a poison rank. Ben. Kind sir, forget our deadly strife this eve When springs a breeze from out the deep blue sea, That has the kiss of Venus for its mesh And tangles hearts of men in stouter folds Than ever fisher wove to snare the fish Which sport in wanton glee in cool sea caves. Mer. Then come, let's hasten from the street to where The moonbeams chase each other through the leaves And while the calm and sleepless night is young By music's charms invite old Morpheus To come to nurse our minds till dawn returns. But look ! young Romeo, with head adroop Comes slowly down the street like one whose friends Have faithless proved. Dost thou surmise the cause THE MERCURY. 75 Which drives the heir of Montague To sulk ? Enter Romeo. Ben. To what fair maiden's bower now My Romeo do you your mind address ? Rom. Zounds ! Thy thoughts are ever far from truth, Ben. Now hear ! Mer. Behold the youthful champion of truth ! This night, my honor e'en will vouch for it, I saw him stand beneath a linden tree And rail against the fate that prompted him To look at Luna's silver bow across That shoulder which foretells ill luck 'tis said ; His calf like love was shocked at thought of this And now he pines lest Rosaline should spurn His ardent love. Rom. False babbler hold thy tongue Your wisdom keep for dumber men than I. Exeunt Benvolia and Mercutio Romeo 'goes toward villa of Rosaline. Rom. It is beyond my comprehension quite Why Rosaline doth so indif'rent prove, In spite of all my growing burning love She seems as cold as snow on mountain tops, Or can it be my heart has hid its fire And kept from her its fierce enkindling flame. Well should that be ; tonight I'll leave no spot In her fair heart unscorched by foul desire. Come Orpheus and lend thy mellow art That I may touch and melt her hardened heart. He sings under her window. Sea waves gleam with a tint of blue, The heavens vault is azure too, Yet their hues so rich and rare With thy soft eyes cannot compare, Cho. Come love come and hear my pleading Come and kiss me and caress me Or my heart will pine away. . J 76 THE MERCURY. The lily blooms so sweet and fair The violet gently drugs the air Yet all their beauty and perfume If thou art nigh, are forgotten soon, Cho. Come love, etc., etc. Rosaline appears at the window aboi'e. Ros. Who comes at this quiet hour of night And rends the air with woeful songs of love; It is not love but passion's fiery breath That desecrates the holy calm of eve; This passion is a treach'rOus, murd'rous fiend Who steals abroad beneath the name of love And poisons minds of maids with that unrest Which blights the budding flowers of virgin minds. Rom. Oh Rosaline be not unkind I pray But come and sit with me beneath the moon ; Enjoy the evening cool mid sighing trees While I declare to thee my heartfelt love Which bounds and struggles till it tears my breast. Ros. Oh youth entrapped by Venus give good heed To what I say, and do not come again To haunt the garden of my father's house, Thy passion fierce does not arouse my heart To join with thee in amorous delights, Minerva, chaste my patron goddess is And follow her I will through all my years, For she preserves the happiness of life While Venus blights the ones who trust in her. Romeo goes away. Rom. What pity that such wondrous charms should be Untouched by love's divine consuming fire For from such burning would arise anew Fair forms of beauty which would bless the world. Now sadly to my couch I take my way With unrequited love to pine away; m THE MERCURY. 77 WHAT IS THE RIGHT USE OF BOOKS? E. G. HESS '06. TO those who are students and scholars books are of in-calculable value. By properly using them their minds become vastly enriched, filled with noble and graceful images and guided to profound truths. They are their masters in-structing them in history, philosophy, literature and art. By them the entire line of one's mental horizon is sometimes changed. In the lonely hours of solitude books are one's cheer-ful companions. In deep heart-rending sorrow they have the power to console effectually. When one is confronted by trials and temptations, they beeome a firm and unbending shield. Deep inspiration and renewed life may be found directly back of the print. A library of choice books, therefore, is more precious than great wealth without them. When the imagi-nation constructs its gorgeous and fantastic forms or builds its magnificent air castles, the library is a veritable fairyland. Your handsomely illustrated geographies and well worded geologies speak of the earth with its beautiful mountains, whose gentle slopes with red roofed huts scattered among green groves of pine and hemlock, with here and there an open heath, arch gracefully upward until their majestic snow-capped summits pierce the very vault of heaven, or of clear swiftly flowing streams, rushing over beds of solid rock, suddenly breaking over a perpendicular ledge, then falling, mantled with fleecy clouds of spray, over which hover the brilliant colors of the rainbow, and dashing its hissing torrents into the raging foam-ing gulf below while the eternal roar of the water echoes along the stupendous gorge. Others give knowledge of plant life, from the tender mosses and the tiny delicate flowers to the gigantic trees of the forest. And, yet, has anyone ever obtained the pleasing, refreshing odors of the most fragrant blossoms from reading books, or have the leafy boughs shaded and protected him from the scorching rays of the noon day sun? Can one, while read-ing, hear the ceaseless roaring waters or see the grandeur of the fall ? Hume says : " The poet using the most glowing colors I .:*)*. .11 _ » i',> I 1 Hi f 78 THE MERCURY. of his art cannot depict a scene in such a way that his de-scription might be mistaken for the real landscope." Our histories speak concerning the great men of the past and their remarkable achievements. They tell us of Napoleon, Caesar, Alexander and hosts of others. These interesting his-toric recitals thrill and inspire us, yet we who know only American life frequently fail to think ourselves into those far away lands, and that distant past, into the very conditions un-der which these people lived, thought and fought. They and their deeds belong to the dark dominion of the past, and no book,however well written, can perfectly reflect the past. They, thus, generally appear to us as mere names upon the printed page rather than actual living historic characters who had bodies of flesh and blood very similar to our own. What then do we have in books more than signs for thoughts ? Can real knowledge and actual thoughts be found in books? Can knowledge be found elsewhere than in some one's consciousness ? Truth may exist independent of our minds. But the alphabet, Latin, Greek or Hebrew, the Cunei-form system of the ancient Persians and Assyrians, the Egypt-ian Hieroglyphics are only symbols for ideas and thoughts. The benefit derived from the printed page is wholly a matter of interpretation. Let one hold in his hand a Chinese book, there is a world of truth printed upon its pages, but, unless he understands the language he is unable to interpret it, thus the book conveys no thought. Let him stand before Cleopatra's Needle in New York and unless he be versed in Egyptology, the golden key of interpre-tation is wanting and those curious hieroglyphics are meaning-less. Let two men read a page of English, there is a differ-ence in interpretation proportionate to the difference in capa-city and development. There is also a vast difference in the mental experiences of the same person when he gets his con-ception of an object, or event from the pages ot a printed book or has it indelibly stamped upon his memory by actual personal experience. In the former case, because of the asso-ciation of ideas the words have for him a certain coloring which they had not for the author, and his imagnation working THE MERCURY. 79 over the ideas produces a picture unlike that which was in the author's mind. We hear much about impure drugs and adulterated food. We want our Rio coffee of the same quality and value as when it departed from the port of Brazil. But in our acquisition of knowledge we do not apply these same strict business princi-ples but permit ourselves to be satisfied with second-hand experiences. Some have read books on travel, perhaps the very guide books which are indespensible to a man treading his way amid the cloud-hidden heights or appalling depths of an Alpine glazier. A fatal step may be saved by the book. But no one would read these books and say he has had actual experiences of travel. Thus, when one is struggling with the grave prob-lems of life earnestly striving toward the highest development, a good book may save him much effort, perhaps a disas-trous mistake. But we would not conclude that we gain ex-periences of actual life by reading these (so-called) life books. Only in our imagination can we follow the experiences of great men, leaving an infinite gulf between the experiences gained by reading and those gained from actual life. Let books, therefore, serve us as a pair of eye glasses, as a microscope or telescope. Let them help us to see through the eyes of the authors what otherwise we should not see. Dur-ing leisure hours, let them inspire us, but whenever we can see directly, let us waste neither time nor effort in studying other men's records of what they saw. Emerson says: " Meek young men grow up in libraries, believing it their duty to accept the views which Cicero, which Locke, which Bacon, have given; forgetful that Cicero, Locke and Bacon were only young men in libraries when they wrote these books." Thus as scholars we look toward the future and see unwritten books waiting to chronicle our own original investigations. 8o THE MERCURY. SHOULD THE VOTING MACHINE BE INTRO-DUCED INTO PENNSYLVANIA? FRANK W. MOSER, '07. THERE is an old saying that the Yankee will do nothing by hand that he can invent a machine to do for him. He maintains the astonishing record of patenting twenty-three thousand new mechanisms every year and a study of all the complications almost overwhelms one. Outside of the realm of electricity no invention has met the need of the hour so thoroughly and efficiently as the voting machine. This state-ment can be proved by the citing of several facts and its special application to Pennsylvania can then be inferred from general conditions. In the first place voting machines have worked well wher-ever they have been tried. This fact alone is exceedingly sig-nificant when we consider the conditions of turmoil in politics and labor that have marked the last few years. A trial under such circumstances is a trial indeed and the fact that it has proved thoroughly satisfactory is splendid evidence of its value to any state. Considering the rapidity with which the Aus-tralian ballot came into use, we can almost predict that, after the complications in the larger cities, especially in Philadelphia, voting by machine would spring into the front all over the land. Buffalo has voted by machine for several years and seems more than satisfied with the result. This satisfaction is splendid evidence of its worth among the recent inventions tending toward the bettering of conditions in the state. Secondly, when voting is carried on by machines, none of the troubles of a recount can arise. The machine is run some-what on the principle of the cash register and records unerr-ingly and promptly. In tabulating the results, the viewers make numerous errors both by accident and even sometimes it may be with intention and in the press of a hard fight the er-rors are unnoticed and the result, if close, may not embody the will of the people. The automatic action of the machine makes such mistakes an impossibility. The importance of this point can hardly be overestimated since the charges of fraud THE MERCURY. 8l In voting and criminality in the recounts have been spread so broadcast in the daily papers. There is only one immediate and final remedy for this; only one thing that will make such action impossible ; only one thing that can prevent libelous in-dictments from flying on every daily sheet; and that one thing is the voting machine. Thirdly, the result is ready as soon as the voting ceases- There are no long hours of waiting for the results to be an-nounced nor of wearisome labor by the officers. Immediately upon the closing of the polls the machine is ready to hand out its tabulated account arranged in neat and systematic order. Like many other.things in the world the voting machine is shunned because the people are not used to it. There has hardly been an invention in the history of the world's progress, but the people were wary of it, called it a hoax and its inventor a lunatic, and applied a multitude of like foolish accusations, and it is often only after long and severe test that they can be urged to take up with it. The voting machine is simple, very simple, when once it is understood. There is no red tape about the machine nor any patent levers nor anything else of the kind to confuse or annoy the voter. It is as simple as the cash register, a touch and your vote is cast. That these facts are especially applicable to Pennsylvania cannot be doubted by any sound-minded person. Whenever in state or city the power falls into the hands of corrupt and reckless men, pessimism cries out that popular government is a failure. The crisis through which Pennsylvania has just passed, the smoke of the conflict still lingering over the battle-field, ought to be an object lesson at once forceful and abiding. Were the power of corruption in machine and gang entirely dead, then we might settle down to our newspapers and maga-zines with some degree of security, but the lightening that ever and anon illuminates the edge of the cloud shows that there is still dormant energy behind the apparent calm, which may break into a storm at any minute. Superficial remedies, advocated by would-be reform societies, are worse than useless. The reform must come from within and be deep and perma-nent to achieve the best results, and the introduction of the 82 THE MERCURY. voting machine would be a big step toward preventing any such conditions from becoming prevalent in the future. Penn-sylvania needs the voting machine because, having just passed through a stormy period, she is still hanging in suspense to-await future events ; she needs the machine because the ma-chine would give a reasonable guarantee of fairness at the polls; she needs the machine because she is the keystone of the union and should be solidly for the right, a position it would assist her to maintain ; she ought to have the machine because her citizens are ever broad-minded enough to put away prejudice against the new and fall into line on any improvement in state government. To repeat, the machine ought to be introduced into Pennsyl-vania because it has met with decided success wherever it has been tried; because none of the troubles of a recount can arise; because the result is ready as soon as the voting ceases ; because Pennsylvania is now in such condition as to render the introduction of the voting machine not only advantageous but imperative. It is not growing like a tree In bulk, doth make man better be ; Or standing long an oak, three hundred year To fall a log at last, dry, bald and sear : A lily of a day Is fairer far in May, Although it fall and die that night, It was the plant and flower of light. In small proportions we just beauties see ; And in short measures life may perfect be. —Ben Jonson. mmwwm**— • THE MERCURY. 83 IN THE SHELTER OF A ROCK. E. A. CHAMBERLIN, '08. WILLIAM BLODGETT always was an enthusiastic pho-tographer. Although only an amateur, yet some of his battlefield views rivaled even those of the professionals, Mumper and Tipton. His mountain views, water scenes, and views of historic spots, had won a name for him among his numerous college friends and outside admirers. Scarcely did a publication of the " Amateur Photographer," appear without the use of one of Blodgctt's reproductions as an illustration. One afternoon, after he had puzzled his brain over Prof. Nixon's cycloids and hypocycloids, he strapped his camera over his shoulder, placed his tripod beneath his arm, and strolled forth in the direction of Culp's Hill in quest of speci-mens for his botanical collection, and for further purpose of adding to his already numerous supply of battlefield views. After walking about a mile, finding only a few flowers, he came upon a scene which made the heart of the young photographer leap for joy. He had often seen it before but it was never so inviting as now. The avenue had been built in the side of the hill, and, as he halted upon its white surface to feast his eyes upon this garden spot of nature, he beheld stretched below him in a small valley, masses of rock, one upon the other, between which flowed Rock Creek now flooded to its banks by early spring rains. One mass of rock in particular showed the results of the hor-rible struggle which had taken place at this point nearly forty years before. Even now upon the rock could be seen the marks of many bullets, and streaks of white lead oxidized by the rains of many years. The trees here thick and tall were beginning to bud, while in the background loomed up a wooded hill, the only sentinel which had withstood the victorious charge of O'Neal's men. An excursion from Baltimore was upon the field but, as luck would have it, all seemed to be elsewhere sightseeing. So with no one to disturb him he planted his tripod and arranged his camera for a view which in his opinion would far surpass a similar scene, taken by a Princeton student, which had been 84 THE MERCURY. published a few weeks before. Not a breeze disturbed the leaves in the tree-tops—not a creature could be seen, with the exception of a distant buzzard sailing over the ground once made fruitful, in his aviarian mind, by the inhuman struggles of two contending armies. With a last look upon the scene he turned, removed the cover from the plateholder and gently pressed the bulb. That night after he had worked for two hours upon his Latin, he went to his dark room and proceeded to develop his treasure. How carefully he measured the powders and liquids, how gently he removed the plate from its holder and placed it in the tray. The image arose upon the plate resplendent in the ruby light. Yet Blodgett's heart sank within him as he looked upon it, for, in the very centre of the picture, just above the rock, appeared a small black spot which would render the negative practically' worthless. Tired, disgusted and discouraged, he finished the process and went to bed. As the first rays of the morning sun shone in his window he jumped out of bed to take a better look in the daylight at the defective spot. Imagine his surprise when upon holding it to the window he discovered that the black spot was caused by no other object than the head of a beautiful girl, made even more beautiful by its surroundings. She had undoubtedly been concealed and, at the very moment in which he had pressed the bulb had looked over the moss covered edge of the rock. The face was one of exceptional beauty. During the day, and those which followed, Blodgett often looked at the small features, the dark waving hair and the eyes which he knew, from their expression, must be of the deepest blue. He had never seen the young lady in question, and, make inquiry as he would, no information upon the subject could he gain. He searched the spot sheltered by the rock for some clew; this was also in vain. He found nothing save a few dainty foot prints upon the mossy bank. The months and years flew past. Blodgett graduated from college and entered a school in Baltimore, where it was his pur-pose to make a special study of photography, his great hobby ; yet he never forgot the face which had appeared from behind ,.-. --- r—i THE MERCUKY. 85 the sheltering rock, and never failed to look for it even in the busy city in which he now lived. One day while passing through Druid Hill Park he was struck by an automobile and lay seemingly lifeless upon the speedway. A burly policeman lifted him tenderly, placed him gently upon a grassy bank and after noting the number of the machine sent in a hurry call for an ambulance. Blodgett thought himself in a deep pit while ever and anon there would appear above him in bold outline against the outer light, a face the same which had in his college days appeared in like manner from behind the rock. At last the pit vanished and there bending over him was the face with a small nurse's cap surmounting it. The face although now slightly older was nevertheless the same. His air castles had materalized. He had been injured internally, and it was several months before he was able to leave his cot. In the meantime he had told the owner of the face, a certain Miss Hartman, about the photograph of the rock and had received her side of the story. At the end of a week they were fast friends, and, as the weeks lengthened into months their friendship changed to something even deeper. He is now one of the leading photographers in Baltimore while she although her name is changed yet her face is the same as on that day when it so suddenly appeared and then as quickly vanished behind the shelter of the rock. THE ]\|ERCURY Entered at the Postoffi.ee at Gettysburg as second-class Matter VOL. XIV GETTYSBURG, PA., MAY, 1906 No. 3 Editor-in-chief WARD B. S. RICE, '07 Exchange Editor . THOS. E. SHEARER, '07 Business Manager THOMAS A. FAUST, '07 Ass'l Bus. Managers. HENRY M. BOWER, '08 H. WATSON DAVISON, '08 Associate Editors GEO. W. KESSLER, '08 J. K. ROBB, '08 EDMUND L. MANGES, '08 . Advisory Board PROF. J. A. HIMES, LITT.TX PROF. G. D. STAHLEY, M.D. PROF. J. W. RICHARD, D.D. Published each month, from October to June inclusive, by the joint literary societies of Pennsylvania (Gettysburg) College. Subscription price, one dollar a year in advance; single copies 15 cents. Notice to discontinue sending the MERCURY to any address must be accompanied by all arrearages. Students, Professors and Alumni are cordially invited to contribute. All subscriptions and business matter should be addressed to the Busi-ness Manager. Articles for publication should be addressed to the Editor. Address THE MERCURY, GETTYSBURG, PA. EDITORIALS. Every young GOLDEN MOMENTS. man ^Q ;«. about to enter an institution of learning has to a certain extent made plans which when he makes them does it in all sin-cerity and fully intends to carry them through. The majority realize that they are entering into a course of training which when completed will have changed them and made them entirely new persons. There is such a Pt».H»^f| THE MERCURY. 87 diversity in men's lives that no two men will receive the same amount of benefits. Some who have laid extensive plans and are ambitious may not accomplish as much as a man whose intentions are not so extensive but has the natural faculty of making use of his time. Spare moments have well been called the gold dust of time. At this time of the year when nature has taken on her •summer clothing it is especially easy to waste our precious moments in which we should be carrying out our plans. We are now nearing the close of another school year and for this very reason we should not even let nature or any other factor •waylay us or take advantage of us, but we should do as the runner who on the home stretch puts forth his best efforts and finishes his race in an admirable manner. It is a hard thing to go to one's room and work when one could enjoy the beauti-ful evenings on the campus. But when time has been idled away there is always a feeling of discontent while on the other hand when time is well spent there comes a feeling of content. There is a question now being agitated A PERSONAL QUESTION. wh, i•ch, i• s ofc vi.tal, i.mportance to every Gettysburg student, those who may oppose it as well as those who may favor it. It is that of a compulsory athletic fee, pro-viding that each student shall be required to pay a yearly athletic fee, and that there shall be free admission to all games, also carrying with it the provision that the student will not be required to assist financially except as above stated. Every-one acquainted with the present system of meeting the athletic debts must confess that it is faulty and is largely chance, and that the only results of its workings have been debt and dissatisfaction. Of course this reform, like all others, has ob-jections raised against it, but we believe that the merits of the system proposed will high override all objections. But before we come to a conclusion, let us look at some of the benefits to be derived as set over against the objections. In the first place the present system is working to the de-triment of the college. It does not provide the funds neces-sary for the best results. This is a serious drawback because 88 THE MERCURY. the the athletic success of a college plays an important part in influencing prospective students. Especially students of means-will consider this point, and they are generally most influential for the college. It may be well to state that we are not depre-ciating our success along atheletic lines, but believe that with a good coach for each branch of our athletics, which we would have under the system proposed, we would surprise some of our old rivals. Take for example the last football season. Again since there would be free admission to all games, the student body would make a better showing, and the teams would re-ceive better support. In the next place, the burden would not fall so heavily upon those who are willing to contribute, but the responsibility would fall equally upon all, and each could claim an equal share in the success. In connection with the forego-ing reason, an objection arises, and we may say the only one which can be brought up. That is, that it would not be fair to-those of limited means. We have all respect for students of that kind, but we are of the opinion that a reasonable fee would not inconvenience them any more than some necessity which may present itself. There may be a few-exceptions, but they would-be provided for with ease in comparison with what would have to be overcome if the present system continues. If the college is to be conducted for those of very limited means, then abolish athletics and show true colors. On the other hand if we are go-ing to support this branch, let up us adopt a system, such as-the one proposed, that will be beneficial to the student body and the college, instead of pursuing one which is unsatisfactory and unbusinesslike for the sake of a difficulty which can be easily provided for. With regard to next month's issue we would urge the hearty cooperation of all. Although, this is the busiest season of the school year, the Seniors have ing their class exercises, the Juniors having the oratorical con-test, and the Sophomores orations to deliver, let us have this-issue measure up to the standard, if not surpass it. At this-time we are apt to say that we are too busy, but we hope that LEST WE FORGET. THE MERCURY. 89 you will consider it well before you declare yourself in such a strait. Let everybody get to work, we must have a good selec-tion. Begin to write immediately and hand it in on time as the number will have to be published before commencement. EXCHANGES. As the Commencement season draws near, the attention of the college world is directed toward oratory, commencement speeches and class oratorical contests. This is plainly shown in the exchanges of the past month. The March number of the Maniton Messenger is an Oratori-cal Number, containing the orations of St. Olaf's representa-tives in an Inter-collegiate Contest. The orations are good of their kind, but as a comment upon them we, will quote from an editorial in the April number of the same journal which has just come to hand. The editor says : " The tendency of current college oratory seems to be in favor of character sketches- Instead of whetting his intellect on intricate present day prob-lems, our college orator turns to the musty records of past ages, and from the mouldering bones of ancient heroes draws a pencil sketch of the man who was. The warrior, the states-man, the orator, and the reformer each has his turn. We are told of the life they lived, the work they did, and the death they died. That is all. The grand passions that filled their hearts and swayed their minds we never feel because the prob-lems that shook the foundations of society in their time no longer exist. * * * * Our sympathies are in the present. The great orators of the past became great because the subjects of their orations were the problems of the time in which they lived. They were themselves fired with the theme and could therefore kindle the fire in others." "The Mob Mind in Social Life," in the Augustana Observer, is, without doubt, the best article of a serious nature that we have seen in that paper in many issues. The writer defines a mob as " a number of individuals under the absolute influence of a common idea or sentiment, temporarily void of individuals, personality, and ruled by unconscious or sub-conscious forces!' Under this definition he works out the psychology of the 9o THE MERCURY. mob mind to the conclusion that direct legislation providing for the punishment of individuals of the mob must be useless in controlling, or guiding its forces, but that ' thetonly ulti-mate ' solution of the mob problem is to fill the ' sub-con-sciousness of mankind with noble ideas.' " And this," he says, " is the task of unnumbered centuries." Some of the other articles that we would like to commend are : " An Idyll of the Grove," a story, in The Haverfordian ; " Ruskin on War," in The Albright Bulletin; " Insurance or No Insurance," a parody on Hamlet's soliloquy, in The Moun-taineer; "Child Labor Problem " in Dickinsonian ; " The Man Who Spent His Father's Money," a story in The Red and Blue ; " The Flower Maiden," a poem, in The Philomathean Monthly; and " Undine," as a product of the German Romantic School," in The Forum. In searching the month's exchanges we were surprised at the scarcity of good editorials. Only one or two contained any of any length and merit. This is something unusual. Heretofore they have proved to be good reading, but this month they are weak. Are the editors so busy reading copy that they have no time to* write, or are they out among the students hunting up copy ? It is very likely perhaps that the new staffs are not yet in good working order and that this de-fect will be remedied in the next issue. There seems to be an inclination in some of the college papers to place in their " Locals " so very many nonsensical items. Although we realize that an exchange editor is hardly in a position to make mention of local items, yet we cannot refrain from doing so when this practice mentioned above is carried to such an extent that it lowers our opinion of the paper and incidentally of the school. For example, we have in mind the " Class Items " in The College Folio ; " Locals " in The Midland; " Local Items " in The Grove City Collegian ; and " Things Said and Done " in The Drury Mirror. These papers usually contain but two contributed articles—some-times three, if short—which is a small number for a monthly publication. Now we do not mean that any news item should be suppressed, but if a page or so of these personal jokes and foolish puns were replaced by a good essay or story, we feel sure that the general tone of the papers would be heightened. PATRONIZE OUR ADVERTISER'S I FURNITURE Mattresses, Bed Springs, Iron Beds, Picture Frames. Repair Work done promptly. Under-taking a specialty. * Telephone No. 97. H. B. ^erLcLer 37 Baltimore St., Gettysburg, Pa. The Windsor Hotel 1217=2 Filbert St., Philadelphia. Headquarters for Students. Thoroughly Renovated, Refurnished and Remodeled FRANK M. SCHEIBLEY, Manager. Graduate of Lafayette College 1898. A. G. Spalding & Bros. Largest Manufacturers in the World of Official Athletic Supplies Base Ball Lawn Ten is Foot Ball Archery Roque Quoits Cricket Lacrosse Golf Implements for al Sports Spalding's Official Base Ba.ll Guide for 1906. Edited by Henry Chadwick. The most complete and up-to-date book ever published on the subject. Fully illustrated. Price 10 Cents. For over a quarter of a century Spalding's Trade-Mark on Base Ball implements has marked the advancement in this particular sport. Spalding's O&cial League Ball is the adopted ball ol the National League, and must he used in all match games. Every requisite for Lawn ten-nis and Golf. Spalding's Trade Mark. on our Athletic Implement gives you an advantage over the other player as you have a better article, lasts longer, gives more satisfaction. Every Base Ball Manager should send at once/or a copy of Spalding's Spring and Sum-mer Catalogue—FREE. A. G. SPALDING
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The two wars that have engulfed much of the second half of Joe Biden's presidency are at risk of escalating. Ukraine has taken the war into Russia in recent weeks, and Washington continues to gradually lift its restrictions on how Kyiv can use American weapons. Meanwhile, the efforts to achieve a ceasefire in Gaza appear to be stuck, and the risks of a wider regional war remain acute. Against this backdrop, Swedish diplomat Hans Blix published a book, "A Farewell to Wars: The Growing Restraints on the Interstate Use of Force," that argues that a number of factors, including fear of nuclear war, growing public aversion to armed conflict, and increased economic interdependence, greatly decrease the possibility of large interstate wars in the future. Blix gained international fame as the head of U.N. inspection mission in Iraq (UNMOVIC) from late November 2002 until just before the U.S. invasion of the country on March 20, 2003.Hundreds of U.N. inspections that scoured the country found no evidence to support U.S. claims that Iraq had possession of or was developing weapons of mass destruction. Last month, RS interviewed Blix, now 96, about how he developed the book's thesis and whether the events in Eastern Europe and the Middle East in the months since its publication have affected his analysis in any way. The full conversation is below: RS: Considering years of brutal and devastating war in Ukraine, the Hamas attack on Israel, and Israel's destruction of Gaza, is it not provocative to write "a farewell to wars?" BLIX: I am not, of course, closing my eyes before these bloody wars, nor to the large gruesome chapter of civil wars that is outside my field of inquiry. The Russian invasions of Ukraine are crude violations of the rules that Russia herself and all other states of the world have committed to by accepting the U.N. Charter. I support the continued large- scale assistance that is given to Ukraine. I do so not because of any fear of Russian designs against Europe, but because we need to help end or minimize the intrusion that violates the common legal order established in the U.N. Charter. Yet, having taken a long-term view and identified growing restraints against interstate war, I do not see the Russian action as ending this evolution but as a disastrous aberration and deviation from it. What was intended, I believe, was not a war but a quick intervention to achieve regime change through a limited "special military operation," a Crimea 2. It failed, as it was based on erroneous intelligence and lack of understanding that the overwhelming majority of Ukrainians wanted independence and continued emancipation from Russia and the Russian economic and political system. RS: Are you confident that there will not be other "aberrations?" BLIX: The cases of the 2003 Iraq war and 2022 Ukraine invasion should be warnings against future uncritical action on the basis of intelligence. Injured pride on the one hand and hubris on the other may be incentives to the use of force, but, as I show, strong factors of restraint have developed and give hope even at this dark period. Despite hot lines and fast communication, there remain risks that misunderstandings might spark major fires. RS: Which are the factors and hopeful long-term trends against interstate use of armed force that you see? BLIX: First, I see over time a great evolution in the public mind regarding war and violence. Historically, war and the conquest of land used to be viewed as glorious enterprises. The evolution, though heterogenous and not an organized movement, has gone toward less violence and more humane attitudes. Public opinion helped to abolish slavery. Humanitarian movements generated the Geneva conventions. The death penalty has been abolished in most countries and duels prohibited. There were only 20 years between the First and the Second World War, but we have had no big wars between great powers for some 80 years. And while we are aware of the limitations of the United Nations, it has remained a vital common mechanism for the handling of conflicts and for global cooperation. Second, while competition is inherent in the relations between states as between individuals (no "farewell"), the nuclear weapons that have become available to the major powers for possible first and second strikes lead them to the well-known conclusion that a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought. Since 1945, no nuclear weapon has been used and what is equally important: despite this quasi-taboo, the fear of use has made the great powers wary of starting or engaging in actions that risk escalation. Fear of escalation to space and A.I. warfare may have a similar effect. Third, fear of escalation to a nuclear war leads governments to limit themselves to threats and to non-kinetic means of pressure, such as cyber actions, economic and financial warfare and subversion. RS: Do you actually see nuclear weapons as a guarantee for peace? BLIX: I think the number of nuclear weapons can — and should — be drastically reduced, and they will retain their restraining effect as long as a second-strike capacity remains. A world getting down to zero nuclear weapons will have developed other means of restraining itself. RS: I wanted to ask you specifically about two potential "aberrations" to your thesis that seem to be on many people's minds. 1) The possibility of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan (which you mention in your book); and 2) The potential for the Israel-Gaza war expanding into a wider regional conflagration in the Middle East (which took place after the book was published). How do you think these two sources of tension fit into long-term trends against interstate war identified in your book? Do you believe that either one of these has a significant risk of breaking out into a larger interstate war? BLIX: Beijing's demand for Taiwan's integration into mainland China has its main roots in pride. China will not, like Denmark after World War II, accept the emancipation of a big island [Iceland]. Rather, Taiwan's separate position is felt as part of the humiliation that China long suffered at the hands of the West. This is a powerful incentive to bring about reunification. Although China will insist that an action vis-à-vis Taiwan is not "interstate," there are strong disincentives to the use of armed force. China cannot, like Putin, believe that reunion could be achieved through a limited "special military operation." As in the case of Ukraine, it would be a matter of occupation rather than liberation. Above all, having witnessed the disastrous costs of the Russian "aberration" in Ukraine, China will hardly take the risk of an armed action that could escalate to wider war and devastation. What lies in the future? Hopefully continued restraint by all and time during which China has continued fruitful economic relations with Taiwan and feels increasingly respected as one of the world's great powers without any need to be glued to past humiliations. Could the Gaza conflict, through some "aberration," explode into a wide conflagration? The mix of contradictory strivings in the region is certainly explosive, but, without major powers directly participating and clashing, a major conflagration is unlikely. In the civil war in Syria, we saw how the U.S. and Russia took great care to avoid any direct clashing in the air. During the Gaza war, it has been remarkable that all three major powers — indeed the whole world except Israel – seem to have rediscovered the two-state solution. Although Netanyahu may wish to highlight the tensions with Iran and prevent any easing of U.S. economic sanctions and other pressures on Iran, he may not want to provoke a full and direct war. The U.S. -under Biden has been actively seeking to prevent such a war, and both China and Russia would be likely to exert influence to prevent its eruption. One of several big questions looming, however, is how to make the broadly supported two-state solution operative with huge numbers of Israeli settlements on occupied Palestinian land. RS: Your book makes a compelling case for the importance of diplomacy and detente in addition to military deterrence as a restraint in the use of global force? How do you assess the state of diplomacy between great powers, namely the U.S., Russia, and China today? BLIX: In the current tense situation between the U.S. and the West on the one hand and Russia and China on the other, communication seems to be regrettably and dangerously sparse and to take place to a large extent through public channels (newspapers, TV). This mode of communication carries the risk of accentuating differences. Even worse is when diplomatic, cultural and scientific contacts are limited or shut off. Much nuanced understanding and opportunities for openings to mutual accommodation are lost. In my view, the three governments should make more use of diplomats and special emissaries with keen hearing and the capability of communicating and detecting openings for accommodation. Most differences between states are solved routinely between competent civilian authorities, including foreign offices and diplomatic missions. To forestall potential armed conflicts, states use diplomacy aiming at détente, but shows of military force – deterrence -- are generally regarded as the most important way of averting war and hostile attacks. At present, accelerated arms races, military maneuvers and annual global military costs exceeding two trillion dollars testify to states' – in particular China's, Russia's and the U.S.' -- heavy reliance on deterrence and readiness to run the risk of sparks and fires. We do not know how much low-visibility diplomacy is actually going on and we realize that there may be issues on which there is no room for diplomacy. But we must note that not so few long-lasting and gruesome armed conflicts end in negotiations and diplomacy with the sorry postscript that they had no military solution. This makes us wonder if diplomacy could not have been used earlier. In my view, diplomacy is dangerously underused today, and efforts to seek accommodation and détente seem often unfairly scorned. We should be more aware of the costs and risks of military deterrence and properly weigh them against costs and risks of restraint and accommodation. Even staunch advocates of red lines and deterrence sometimes favor limiting the role of weapons by accepting specific areas as demilitarized or free from nuclear weapons or from the stationing of foreign forces. Indeed, the nuclear weapons-free zones that cover the larger parts of the world are measures of restraint preferred to measures of deterrence. Until recently, my own country, Sweden, sought to help reduce tensions in the Baltic area by not hosting foreign forces and not joining NATO. It was only after its hope of détente had been shattered by the Russian aggression in Ukraine that Sweden came to prefer being inside NATO's red lines and join a common system of defense. Deterrence may thereby have been strengthened -- at the cost of higher tension in the Baltic region. A last thought — outside the box: In national legal systems, a process of attempted conciliation may be compulsory for couples requesting divorce. We know that the efforts to promote the peaceful settlement of international disputes by inducing states to accept the compulsory jurisdiction of the International Court of Justice have had limited success. And compulsory processes of conciliation between conflicting states is an unlikely proposition. But could – besides the Secretary-General's quiet diplomacy — a UN mediation mechanism be established for use when requested by parties, by the General Assembly, the Security Council or the Secretary General? Mediators can with less difficulty than parties to disputes explore what steps of accommodation or conciliation may be plausible to help prevent or stop a conflict . Blix is an international lawyer with a Ph.D. from Cambridge (UK) and an Ll.D. from Stockholm. He represented Sweden at some 20 sessions of the U.N. General Assembly. He helped to bring about the 1970 unanimous declaration on the interpretation of key parts of the U.N. Charter. For several years in the 1960s he assisted Alva Myrdal at the Geneva Disarmament Conference and he was one of the key negotiators at the 1972 conference that updated the Geneva conventions and adopted a convention against particularly inhumane weapons. He was Swedish Foreign Minister in 1978 and Director-General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, 1981-1997. After the Iraq war 2003, he wrote "Disarming Iraq."
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I am currently in the most wonderful Helsinki airport, waiting to go back to Berlin. I have been in Helsinki to study the Finnish case for the Phil/Ora/Steve book on Defense Agencies. It has been a great albeit cold and mostly wet week. Definitely glad we have this case in the book, and, yes, it is making it imperative to go to Sweden to see how NATO membership is a common process with perhaps not entirely common politics.First, the joy of Helsinki before I discuss what I have learned for the book project. It is on the Baltics, so when the wind blows, brrrrr. Yes, we got some snow here last night, deep into April. Makes me feel like I am back in Canada, except Ottawa has more sun and not as much cold winds. This is only my second time here, and the first one hardly counts as it was a brief layover between Leningrad (that tells you how long ago it was) and NY. I got used to tramming around town, never using the metro as everyone was very well located in the center except a couple of interviews--one requiring a bus ride to beyond Helsinki and one or two requiring cab rides. Two parliament buildingsand funky sculpture One of my fave new experiences for interviewing was that they had a conference center where folks could hold meetings with far less security and inconvenience than going out to the ministries. I still did manage to go to the Ministry of Interior, which was not far away, and to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs that was a 20 minute walk or 15 minute tram ride. The Parliament buildings were not just huge (everyone kept reminding me this is a small country with a small population, but their parliament buildings suggest otherwise), but also had more security than any other legislative building I can recall. Sure, everyone has a front entrance with thick windows, x-ray scanners, etc, but to get from point a to b inside, my escort had to badge the doors every five or ten steps. And, yeah, my escort in was the counsel to the defense committee, and on the way out ... a parliamentarian who was recently the chief of defense! They don't have much of a history, by the way, of senior ex mil leaders serving in parliament but Ukraine changed that. More on that below.reindeer on potatoI am not a huge fan of fish, so I tended to look for non-Finnish food (not all Finnish food is fish, to be clear), so I had Chinese, Italian, Mideast, and Georgian. Pretty sure that was my first time having Georgian food, but the waitress didn't understand my order, so I didn't get the classic big bread thing dish, so I will have to try that in Berlin (I found a Georgian place near my apartment). The people were very friendly, even though I have no Finnish. They all understand that no one speaks Finnish besides Finns, so they all speak Swedish (there is a sizable Swedish minority and the Swedes used to run the place), and English. Some folks remarked that the kids these days are less interested in learning Russian. So much for Russia's soft power....Yes, Russia loomed large here, as the Finns have a strong memory of the trauma of the Winter War--their fight with the Russians during World War II. Apparently, the Ukraine war hit the old folks very hard. I did wonder where the bunkers are, as I had heard that civil defense is a big thing here. I didn't recognize the signs apparently, as I was told that pretty much all of Helsinki has underground facilities. The difference between old US bomb shelters and Finnish bunkers--the latter are used on a daily basis--parking lots, swimming pools, gyms, etc that are underground. This keeps them fresh, their air good, and also, most importantly, has the Finns comfy with going to these places. The economy is not doing well, and it may or may not have much to do with the fact that the Finns have pretty much cut off most trade with Russia. The whole of government thing Canadians and others have a problem doing? Finland has whole of society, comprehensive security. In its history, it has always been alone until ... the last year. So, they are ready to mobilize the entire society if the Russians attack. This means a draft (just for men [all young men including one NBA player], women can join the military but their conscription is voluntary [holy oxymoron]), an extensive reservist system so that the small army can swell to 280,000 and then 900,000, coordination of all parts of society to respond to an attack. The drafted are paid about 5 Euros a day.... which does not go far in super expensive Helsinki. Decorations inside Parl buildingThe military has been running a month-long defense course 4x/year for a long, long time, where they create cohorts of 50 people, elites from across society, to learn about the military and the rest of comprehensive security. This is a hell of a public diplomacy effort--it is not cheap although some companies provide the food and booze and such for free. Companies apparently don't have a big problem with losing an employee for a month. To provide a comparison, the army exercise I did in 2019 was one day. This experience is really important as it came up in almost all of the interviews and mostly without my prompting.In ye old comparative politics, the phrase is war made the state. While not entirely true, the idea is that societies developed more and more extensive political institutions in order to fight and win or survive in international relations. It may be the case that NATO membership has the same but smaller impact. That joining NATO has caused Finland has to dramatically enlarge and perhaps empower its very small Ministry of Defense. NATO requires meetings, document vetting, preparation, the sending of personnel to NATO hq's in Brussels, Mons, and elsewhere. AND most NATO policy is made by civilians even though NATO is far more an organization about military stuff than civilian stuff (hence why much of the effort to build an Afghan government was run by separate national governments (foreign affairs, development agencies) rather than by NATO. The relevance of this is that it gives the MoD a greater role in making defense policy than in the past. That is, the Finnish defense forces made much of the policies but that may be changing now. Oh, and it was the first EU country I have been in where the NATO flags easily outnumber the EU ones.In terms of the project, Finland is an interesting case with a largely autonomous military, that their number two in the MoD is always a retired senior military officer, their MoD is tiny (150 now, swelling recently thanks to NATO), their President is commander in chief which means the military can try to sideline the MoD and the PM by insisting that the President is the one who oversees them, the President and PM have tiny foreign/security offices, and that conscription deeply shapes everything. Sweden will be a fun case to compare since the Swedes had a draft, dropped it, and have recently started it again while also joining NATO recently. Random things I heard along the way:five different Baltic pipelines have had "accidents" since the war in Ukraine started!Finland has reached 2% of GDP on defense because it frontloaded the cost of buying the F35s, which means that when that goes through the system, Finland may have a hard time procuring enough to keep at 2%. Womb chairs! Multiple waiting rooms in govt buildings reminded me of Oberlin's library way back in the day. I do love my job even if it requires me to transcribe my interview notes. I have many more countries to visit and I still have to do some work to figure out the German case as well as write up the Finish case. All I know is that comparative civ-mil relations has been mighty good to me.Next week, Mrs. Spew hits Europe, so we drive through Germany and then fly to Italy. So, a very different bit of fieldwork ahead. Much more focused on comparative cuisine.
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Prior to the war in Ukraine, Russian and Ukrainian interests had already been deadlocked in a heated battle. But this clash wasn't being waged on the streets of Kyiv, it was being fought on K Street in Washington D.C. The combatants donned suits, not camouflage. Their targets weren't hardened military units, they were U.S. policymakers in Congress and the executive branch. Their goal wasn't total victory, it was to win hearts, minds, and, above all, votes for their cause. This was the lobbying battle before the Ukraine war. As I documented in a Quincy Institute brief, this David vs. Goliath style battle between a small, relatively low-funded, but remarkably zealous Ukrainian lobby had largely been thwarted by a multi-million dollar lobbying and PR campaign by Russian interests. But when Russian President Vladimir Putin made the disastrous decision to invade Ukraine two years ago, this Russian influence advantage in D.C. quickly evaporated. Within a week of the war's onset, U.S. sanctions effectively decimated Russia's influence in Washington, forcing a number of top lobbying and public relations firms to sever ties with their Russian clients. Since then the Ukraine lobby has been largely unopposed in its efforts to steer U.S. foreign policies related to the war. The Ukraine lobby has helped pave the way for more than $100 billion in U.S. assistance to Ukraine and meticulously crafted the media narrative to maintain U.S. public support for Ukraine's war effort.The Ukraine Lobby Since the War BeganIn the two years since the war in Ukraine began, 46 different firms or individuals have been registered under FARA to represent Ukrainian interests. This includes lobbying heavyweights like BGR Government Affairs, Hogan Lovells, and Hill & Knowlton, as well as international public relations firms like Qorvis Communications. In total, these firms have received nearly $10.92 million from Ukrainian clients since 2022, according to FARA data compiled by OpenSecrets. Just as in the year before the war — when FARA registrants reported conducting 13,541 political activities on behalf of their Ukrainian clients — the Ukraine lobby has been working feverishly since the war began. A Quincy Institute analysis of FARA records found that, since the war began, Ukrainian interests have reported doing more than 12,000 political activities on behalf of Ukrainian interests, primarily contacting Congress, the executive branch, and media outlets. By far the busiest firm working on behalf of Ukrainian interests has been Yorktown Solutions, which has represented the Federation of Employers of the Oil and Gas Industry of Ukraine, the Civil Movement For a Just Ukraine, and the Primary Trade Union Organization of State Enterprise National Nuclear Energy Generating Company, better known as "Energoatom."For just one of these clients — the Federation of Employers of the Oil and Gas Industry — Yorktown has reported doing 8,296 political activities since the war began. To put that remarkable workload in perspective, it equates to an average of more than 11 emails, phone calls, and meetings completed every day on behalf of just one client. No other foreign client registered under FARA has had more work done on their behalf in the past two years, according to a Quincy Institute analysis of FARA records.Since the war began, Yorktown hasn't hidden the fact that one of the primary objectives behind all this work is to increase U.S. military assistance to Ukraine. "We've gone from energy security to security," Daniel Vajdich, President of Yorktown Solutions, told Politico less than a month after the war began, explaining the firm's shift away from lobbying related to the Nordstream 2 pipeline and towards acquiring U.S. military assistance for Ukraine. Vajdich added that, "It is 24 hours, even when we're sleeping the phone is on, and the phone is going off, and there are phone calls from Kyiv, and there are phone calls from others here in Washington both in and out of government … We speak to the administration. We speak to Capitol Hill. We certainly speak to media as well."In addition to its Ukrainian clients, Yorktown has also been working feverishly for the Centre for a European Future, reporting more than 4,000 political activities on behalf of the Belgium based non-profit whose objectives revolve heavily around Ukraine and include, "rebuilding Ukraine," "joining NATO," and "securing compensation for the war."The Pro-Bono Push for UkraineAt just under $11 million in reported FARA spending by Ukrainian clients since the war began, the Ukraine lobby isn't funded at the level of perennial influence powerhouses in Washington, like Saudi Arabia, whose lobbying and public relations firms have received more than $70 million from the Kingdom since 2022, according to OpenSecrets. But, the actual dollar amount of spending on lobbying, public relations and the other influence efforts done on behalf of Ukrainian interests is deceptive, as many individuals, and even some of the most prominent lobbying firms in D.C., have been working for Ukraine pro-bono. In fact, of the 46 different firms and individuals that have been registered under FARA to represent Ukrainian clients, 29 have done the work for free.Working for Ukraine pro-bono became somewhat trendy in the Washington influence industry shortly after the war began. Many of the firms registered under FARA to represent Ukrainian interests for free, however, appear to have done little work on behalf of Ukrainian interests. Some reported just a handful of contacts with congressional offices on behalf of Ukraine. Another reported a "one day pro bono effort" for a Ukrainian Parliamentary Delegation to the U.S. In one infamous case, a firm registered under FARA claiming to be working pro-bono for the Ukrainian ambassador to the United Nations, only to deregister just days later after the ambassador publicly explained that he was not actually working with the firm. On the other hand, a number of lobbying and PR firms have done a considerable amount of work for Ukrainian interests at no charge to their clients. A Quincy Institute analysis of FARA records found that Plus Communications tops this list with nearly 3,000 political activities reported in its pro-bono work for the Ukrainian PR Army, a non-profit organization that purports to help, "global media tell the accurate story of this war through the perspectives of Ukrainian experts, authorities, and witnesses." Plus Communications' work involved pitching interviews with prominent Ukrainian officials to seemingly every mainstream U.S. media outlet, including Fox News, The Washington Post, and NPR. Another major pro-bono endeavor is being run on behalf of the Ministry of Culture and Informational Policy of Ukraine, specifically in relation to the ministry's "Advantage Ukraine Initiative," which seeks to attract international investment in Ukrainian industries, with the top choice being the defense industry. Several firms are registered under FARA to support this pro-bono initiative, including Hill & Knowlton Strategies, Ogilvy Group, and Group M. The latter has reported nearly 300 emails to major media outlets, most of which were in reference to "ad materials" for Advantage Ukraine. The firm's FARA filings show these ads include slogans like, "Davos is over. The opportunities in Ukraine have just begun," and "Imagine an investment where you get applauded by shareholders AND the public?"Group M's collaborator on the Advantage Ukraine Initiative, Ogilvy Group, is also one of several firms that have been working pro-bono for Ukraine while taking money from firms that are profiting from the Ukraine war. As Eli Clifton and I previously reported for Responsible Statecraft, Hogan Lovells, BGR Government Affairs, Mercury Public Affairs, Navigators Global, and Ogilvy Group have all done pro-bono work for Ukraine interests while also lobbying on behalf of weapons makers that could profit from the war.The Ukraine Lobby TodayWhile the size of the Ukraine lobby has decreased since the early months of the war, 18 firms are still registered under FARA to represent Ukrainian interests. Most of them are still doing the work pro-bono, and many of them remain intent on shaping U.S. foreign policy to Ukraine's favor. More so than at any time since the war began though, they're having to fend off an American public which increasingly believes the U.S. is providing too much aid to Ukraine. How this tension pans out remains to be seen, but there is little doubt that the Ukraine lobby has all the ammunition it needs to continue winning the lobbying battle in Washington.
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From WSJ "Many Americans who want to move are trapped in their homes—locked in by low interest rates they can't afford to give up. These "golden handcuffs" are keeping the supply of homes for sale unusually low and making the market more competitive and pricey than some forecasters expected. The reluctance of homeowners to sell differentiates the current housing market from past downturns and could keep home prices from falling significantly on a national basis, economists say."What's going on? US 15 or 30 year fixed-rate mortgages have a catch -- you can't take it with you. If interest rates go up, and you want to move, you can't take the old mortgage with you. You have to refinance at the higher interest rate. It's curiously asymmetric, as if interest rates go down you have the right to refinance at a lower rate. As a result, yes, people stay in houses they would rather sell in order to keep the low interest rate on their fixed rate mortgage. They then don't free up houses that someone else would really rather buy. (In California, the right to keep paying low property taxes, which reset if you buy a new house also keeps some people where they are. And everywhere, transfer taxes add a small disincentive to move.) This is a curious contract structure. Why can't you take a mortgage with you, and use it to pay for a new house? Sure, mortgages with that right would cost more; the rate would be a bit higher initially. But fixed rate mortgages already cost more than variable rate mortgages, and people seem willing to pay for insurance against rising rates. I can imagine that plenty of people might want to buy that insurance to make sure they can live in a house of given cost, though not necessarily this house. Conversely, fixed-rate mortgages that did not give the right to refinance, where you have to pay a penalty to get out of the contract if rates go down, would also be cheaper up front, yet people aren't screaming for those. Even the right to refinance at a lower rate is weird. A straightforward mortgage would have a 30 year fixed rate, but automatically lower that rate as other interest rates go down. Instead, you have to go through the formalities of refinancing, which adds a lot of fixed costs to the decision. I know a lot of very sophisticated finance people. Not one has ever reported that they've really solved the complex option pricing problem, when is it optimal to refinance a conventional mortgage?The 15 and 30 year fixed rate mortgage, with right to refinance, is peculiar to the US. You can't make a psychological argument for it. Most of Europe has variable rate mortgages. And a lot less interest rate risk on bank balance sheets! So why are we here, and given that we are here why does this strange contract seem so resistant to innovation. I think the answer is simple: 15 and 30 year fixed rate mortgages were a creation of the federal government during the Great Depression. And today the vast majority of mortgages are securitized via Fannie Mae, Freddy Mac, VA etc, along with a generous government guarantee. Those have to conform to specific contract structures. You can't innovate better contracts and then pass the loan on via government agencies. (Commenters, correct me if I'm wrong. My recollection of the history is foggy here.) This all points to an interesting and usually unsung problem with extensive government intervention in the mortgage market: It freezes contract terms. Contracts that might be very popular -- such as the right to transfer the mortgage to a new house, or the right to settle up in both directions, marking the mortgage to market so you can pay a new higher rate -- don't get innovated. Updates:The is not, of course, a particularly original thought. Alexei Alexandrov, Laurie Goodman, and Ted Tozer at Urban Institute have a nice article advocating streamlined refinancing. They also point out the Fed should care, as it wants interest rates faced by borrowers to adjust more quickly. Ted Tozer points out that you can leave it behind -- a new buyer can assume an existing mortgage. However this feature doesn't often get used. I once was at the Swedish central bank talking about monetary policy. They were worried about raising interest rates. I presumed they were worried that too big to fail banks would have trouble. No, they said. In Sweden practically all mortgages are floating rate. And you can't just mail in the keys and default on mortgages. If you default, they take all your assets and garnish your wages. (So much for soft hearted socialist Scandinavia. They are actually quite attuned to incentives.) The banks were going to be fine. They were worried that if they raised interest rates, people would do anything to pay their higher mortgage rates, and this would tank consumption. Talk about effective monetary policy! At the time however they were worried about house prices, and didn't want effective monetary policy. Long story short, mortgage contracts matter. (Martin Flodén, Matilda Kilström, Jósef Sigurdsson and Roine Vestman document this "cashflow channel" in the Economic Journal. It's on the back of my mind also in the search for better mechanisms to understand whether and how higher interest rates lower inflation.) Roger Baris writes: I thought you might want to know a bit about the Danish mortgage market, which basically has the features both you and the Urban Institute mention.1. A very old securitization market. Created in the early 19th century to help rebuild Copenhagen after the Brits shelled it when Denmark complied with Napoleon's "Continental System" which blockaded trade with England. I guess the Brits really hated being cut off from all that fine Danish butter and bacon.2. At the initiation of the mortage, the borrower basically swaps his commitment to pay a 30-yr, fixed rate mortgage for bonds in a large, largely homogeneous (with respect to maturity and interest rate) bond issuance. The bonds are then sold at the prevailing market price, with the proceeds providing the financing for the house buyer.3. The loan is prepayable at any time. Like the UI proposal, the originating bank (which continues to service the loan) actually prompts borrowers with high interest rates to prepay (since the bank earns some fees in the process and therefore has an economic motivation). There is no re-underwriting of the loan at this point so long as the amount of the loan does not increase. This is a very quick and very cheap process. This is used if interest rates fall (in which case, the borrower's new loan is instantly securitized into a new bond issuance with uniform characteristics, with an equivalent amount of the old bond being prepaid) or if the borrower wants to prepay the loan for a house move. (If I remember correctly, the loan may be also be "portable" to a new house but in this case, the value of the new house has to be re-underwritten.)4. Note that the servicer in a US mortage is contractually forbidden to prompt prepayments in this manner, although enforcement of this provision is sometimes difficult, as you can imagine.5. If interest rates rise, conversely, the borrower has the option (if he/she wants to prepay the loan for any reason, especially a house move) of going into the bond market (which is highly liquid with large, uniform pools) and buying an equivalent face amount of bonds (at a discount because rates have risen) and then delivering these bonds to extinguish his/her mortgage liability.6. In practice, all the bond market activity (both at issuance and extinguishing) is handled for the borrower by a mortgage bank. The net effect of all of this - the loan prepayment right, the "portability" and the option to deliver bonds to extinguish a loan - is to make the embedded interest rate option in a Danish fixed-rate mortgage more optimal than the same option in a US mortgage. This means that, as you would expect, the borrower pays a higher "spread" on the loan from the beginning in return for the greater optionality.PS. The Danish mortgage system also has some interesting characteristics in terms of mutualizing risk; these characteristics also interact with the interest rate option.
Since the mid-twentieth century, the modern-colonial capitalist system has been consolidated by a Eurocentric logic that has aggravated the North-South gap. Thus the international economic relations that imposed the generation and racialization of labour were forged. In this sense, the assurance of the socio-economic rights of the working class of the Global North was the product of a process imbricated by the factors of modernity, (neo)colonialism and development. Therefore, the urgency of deconstructing the current ecocide and genocidal economic system is presented, for this new world order has profited from the overexploitation and death of thousands of women. This investigation implements a theoretical-methodological intersectional approach, that is to say, to understand the subordination of women there is a need to do so from a set of co-constitutional variables (gender, race, sexuality, spirituality, etc.) and from "situated knowledges" as Donna Haraway puts it. This perspective allows us to go beyond gender oppression, for which it will be essential to actively listen to the experiences of other women who have been marginalized and excluded by hegemonic and Eurocentric feminisms, only considered as objects of study never as political subjects. This work is implicated in the will to study and move towards an alternative reading of international relations. For this purpose, it is my proposal to begin in the feminist margins of decolonial feminisms, from the ideas of thinkers who are characterized by not seeking a consensus but a conversation from difference. Regarding the structure, the first part of the article will present a critique of mainstream international relations discourse from a decolonial perspective. Thus, the aim is to prove through a critique of the hegemonic paradigm that international relations serves the interests of the Global North as a consequence of Eurocentric thinking. Subsequently, the relegation of reproductive work to women linked to the colonial process will be studied. Furthermore, it will seek to demonstrate the effects of the international economic system on the subalternized, racialized, and colonized lives of workers, refugees, or migrants. In relation to this issue, the study and review of historical factors is fundamental because international relations cannot be understood without studying history; that is, the creation of the current international economic system as a consequence of the construction of the international and sexual division of labour and the processes of colonization and racialization. In turn, the above study has as an objective to demonstrate that the care economy is the backbone of the functioning of the international economic system. In other words, if women - traditionally responsible for maintaining lives - went on general strike, the world economy would come to a standstill. Likewise, the violence caused by the modern/colonial capitalist system on the bodies of the subalternized will be analyzed. In this sense, the epistemologies of the South become essential for the study of the neocolonial North-South economic relations where violence against women plays a key role. Examples of this are free-trade zones, extractivism, or in the worst of the cases: wars. Finally, a dialogue between decolonial feminisms and the feminist economy is presented to rethink and justify welfare as a path towards the protection of planetary life. In short, the global context is a system that has ceded the baton to a model that makes it impossible to guarantee the care of lives as a consequence of a nature that is Eurocentric, racist, colonial, heteropatriarchal, ecocidal and so forth. The proposal to urge an alternative is justified through a crisis of a systemic nature which, despite attempts to blur its permanence, is still present through political and socio-economic conflicts. Thus, the Global North is suffering from a process leading to areas that were once part of the centre are now peripheral - as a consequence of the globalised crisis and increased by austerity policies. This consolidates a political, economic, ecological and ethical crisis, which forces us to question the direction in which we are navigating and how we will manage this process, even if this seems inevitable with respect to environmental degradation and being immersed in a context of social hyper-segmentation, where growing inequalities seem to be naturalized and at the same time legitimized. For this reason, this article aims to establish a dialogue between descolonial feminisms and feminist economics to seek a consensus for the creation of a feminist, subversive and common agenda. For this sort of reflection and questioning the presence of international relations becomes indispensable. From the beginning, this discipline should go hand in hand with the transition phase aimed at replacing capital with the care economy and sustainability of life as the epicentre of the system. This research seeks to outline the nonconformity of accepting that history has already been written against those who prevent us from dreaming of the change we want and believe in. But why now? The present moment is decisive. In the face of the threat to planetary life from a destructive economic system, it is more necessary than ever to participate in the creation of another paradigm of international relations through other knowledges. Undoubtedly, the image of the Amazon in flames is further proof of the urgency of initiating a transformation of the global political and socio-economic system. From where and for what purpose is knowledge produced? What role does the economy play within international relations? Who benefits and who is harmed by the globalized capitalist model? Where do women stand within the economic system? Which lives are worth living? Is it possible to initiate an alternative to capitalism from Europe? These questions are not posed with the aim of giving a definitive answer, but with the intention of provoking dialogue and reflection. That is to say, against the logic of the ethics of war, it is manifested to promote the transition of the current international economic system towards a new model for which it will be essential to initiate an analysis of international relations from feminist genealogies and from decolonial thought. ; A partir de la mitad del siglo XX se consolidó el sistema capitalista moderno/colonial, por medio de la lógica eurocéntrica que agravó la brecha Norte-Sur. Así se forjaron las relaciones económicas internacionales que impusieron la engeneración y la racialización del trabajo. En este sentido, la garantía de los derechos socioeconómicos de la clase trabajadora de una parte del planeta (Norte), fue el producto de un proceso imbricado por los factores de modernidad, (neo)colonialismo y desarrollo. De este modo, se presenta la urgencia de deconstruir el sistema económico actual ecologicida y genocida, que ha sido el creador de este nuevo orden mundial que ha rentabilizado la sobreexplotación y la muerte de miles de mujeres. Así, esta investigación bebe de la aplicación de un enfoque teórico-metodológico interseccional, es decir, es necesario entender la subordinación de las mujeres a partir del conjunto de variables co-constitutivas (género, raza, sexualidad, espiritualidad, etcétera) y desde los conocimientos situados de Donna Haraway. Respecto a la estructura, en la primera parte del artículo se presentará una crítica al discurso mainstream de las Relaciones Internacionales desde la perspectiva descolonial. Posteriormente, se estudiará la relegación del trabajo reproductivo a las mujeres vinculada al proceso colonial, además, se pretenderá demostrar los efectos del sistema económico internacional en las vidas de las subalternizadas, sobre las mujeres trabajadoras, las racializadas, las colonizadas, las refugiadas, las trans o las migrantes. En último término, se presenta un diálogo entre los feminismos descoloniales y la economía feminista para repensar y justificar el bienestar como camino hacia la protección de la vida planetaria. En definitiva, el contexto global es un sistema que le ha cedido la batuta a un modelo que imposibilita garantizar el cuidado de las vidas como consecuencia de su naturaleza eurocéntrica, racista, colonial, heteropatriarcal, ecologicida y un largo etcétera. Por esta razón, este artículo abre una puerta al diálogo entre los feminismos descoloniales y la economía feminista para tratar de encontrar consensos que permitan crear una agenda feminista, subversiva y común. Para este camino de reflexión y cuestionamiento la presencia de las Relaciones Internacionales se vuelve indispensable. Esta disciplina debe acompañar, desde el inicio, la fase de transición que consiga desplazar el capital para situar en el epicentro del sistema los cuidados y la sostenibilidad de la vida.
In this thesis, insights of the law and economics literature were collected in order to develop the features of an optimal group litigation concerning the deterrence of European Competition Law violation and these were then compared to the proposals of the European Commission in the White Paper on damages actions. Chapter 1 and 2 provide the basis for the analysis conducted in remainder of this thesis. Chapter 1 provides an overview of the enforcement of European Competition law including the rationale of European Competition Law, the debate about private versus public enforcement in general, and the discussed legal changes to enhance private enforcement. Chapter 2 provides the economic and legal framework used to analyse the efficiency of group litigation mechanisms with regard to deterrence of competition law infringements. This structure is mainly based on economic insights and knowledge developed in the Law and Economics literature. Such an economics based approach entails a choice as to the goal to be pursued by private enforcement to be that of deterrence of unlawful conduct, in this specific case, the (inefficient) breach of competition law and the focus on total welfare. Therefore the insights of the theories on optimal deterrence are applied to the setting of private enforcement of competition law. Using the economic framework laid out in Chapters 1 and 2, in Chapter 3 turns to two necessarily slightly abstract forms of existing group litigation mechanisms, i.e. collective actions and representative actions. These different actions were analysed with regard to their potential to achieve deterrence. Outcomes resulting from an initial analysis showed that the optimal group litigation mechanisms from the point of view of society at large (total welfare approach), would be a stand-alone action brought in the form of a mandatory group litigation, including all losses caused to society at large. The main arguments for that outcome are that to reach optimal deterrence, the penalty imposed on the infringer, in the form of damages to be paid, should be based on total harm caused to society, and therefore include all losses caused to all different members of society. This leads to the conclusion that the optimal group litigation should incorporate all individual losses in one proceeding, to be (cost-) efficient. Therefore, and because free riding problems can be eliminated, the optimal system would be a mandatory one, rather than opt-in or opt-out mechanism. It is shown that stand alone actions are to be preferred over follow-on actions from an efficient deterrence perspective, as only the former increase the rate of detection. This is important as it is increased detection that decreases the amount of the optimal sanction, which otherwise may be prohibitively large, and also when the availability bias leads to a greater value of the risk of detection compared to an increase in the damage awards, i.e. the imposed monetary penalties. Follow-on actions merely contribute to the amount of sanction faced by the infringer when public fines are too low to deter. However, it would be more (cost) efficient in such cases, where the public fine is too low, that the public fine be instead raised sufficiently. Therefore, the analysis continued focusing on mandatory stand-alone group actions. In the analysis of the two abstract forms of existing group litigation systems of collective and representative actions, problems and obstacles to private litigation for damages specific to certain types of breaches of European Competition Law were taken into account. The analysis suggests that neither collective nor representative actions will be the optimal group litigation mechanism in the sense of the best group litigation to reach the goal of efficient deterrence, unless the existing systems were to be substantially altered. Problems specific to collective actions, such as the necessity of one of the victims (lead plaintiff) to become active on behalf of himself and other victims of the infringement, render that particular system of bundling similar claims into one procedure less efficient. This is especially so in those cases where the information asymmetry on the side of the victims is large. One way to reduce such problems would be to motivate the lawyer representing the group of victims to become the actual driving force and the active party. However, as the analysis shows, problems and large inefficiencies occur when the collective action is not adequately and explicitly designed to have a lead lawyer, rather than a lead plaintiff. Similar outcomes result in the analysis of representative actions brought by associations on behalf of the victims. One particular necessity crystallised out of this analysis: the incentives given to the acting agent need to be adequately taken into account and designed in any form of group litigation. In cases where typically individual victims (such as end consumers) will not be the acting agent themselves, this insight has large implications for other goals which one may pursue, such as complete compensation of individual losses of these victims. This important insight is the corner stone of the idea of a market based approach to private enforcement, where agents compete with each other for detection and litigation of competition law infringements. As has been shown, such a market may heal many of the problems and inefficiencies that would remain in the two stylised forms of existing mechanisms described before. Such a market with competing enforcement agents would, however, face similar problems as those unearthed in the discussion of the economic analysis of competition in research and development. Both are characterised by large upfront investments that are necessary in order to gain profits that are highly uncertain. Therefore, under a first-come, first-served mechanism, there will be many resources wasted in the competitive process. Solutions to these market failures presented included the use of auctions for the right to litigate after detection of a certain infringement has taken place. This solution would not only increase the efficiency of the market idea in general, but also those of other systems of collective actions or representative actions when characterised by strong competition and races to the courts. After the features of the theoretical optimal system of group litigation with regard to deterrence were determined, the insights gained are used in Chapter 4 to compare and discuss the efficiency of the Commission's proposal against this benchmark. The analysis shows that the proposed mechanisms do not reach the potential efficiency of the theoretical optimal solution developed in the previous Chapter. This result was no surprise, as the starting point or goal to be achieved though private enforcement in the Commission's point of view, is presumably not deterrence - at least not the dominating one. Moreover, while the theoretical analysis in Chapter 3 focuses on stand-alone actions, the Commission wants to encourage follow-on actions in addition to stand-alone actions. The examination nevertheless highlights the inefficiencies, necessary trade-offs, and some of the costs imposed on society should those particular mechanisms suggested by the Commission be chosen. These considerations are also relevant for follow-on actions and for achieving other goals. A discussion of the goals other than deterrence also shows that even these goals may not be achieved to the highest degree possible. After all, the choices made by the Commission can be interpreted to stem from compromises made in the issues (e.g. the goals) themselves and in the political arena (e.g. taking harmonisation and implementation costs into account). The fifth Chapter illustrates the basic features of three selected legal systems, i.e., the group litigation mechanisms as developed in the US, UK and Germany. These are then compared to the features of the theoretical optimal solution developed in Chapter 3. As these existing mechanisms deviate substantially from the theoretical benchmark, they are unlikely to achieve the optimal deterrence results the optimal group litigation mechanisms are argued to achieve. However, the stark differences between the developed systems and their experienced effectiveness and difficulties provide some partial support to the insights gained in the theoretical part of Chapter 3. In very broad terms, it seems that less attention was paid to the question of who would actually have incentives to become active under the current systems, and which problems might occur and what possible regulative remedies to these might be enacted, the less effective the systems turned out to be. This outcome would also hold, if the goal to be achieved would be anything other than deterrence, for example corrective justice as compensation of individual victims. If the incentives structures that the economic analysis highlights are neglected neither deterrence not compensation can be achieved in any efficient or even just effective way.
"Opportunities multiply as they are seized."Sun TzuOn the eve of the one hundredth day of his Presidency, Barack Obama received a wonderful gift: Senator Arlen Specter, Republican of Pennsylvania, announced he was leaving the Republican Party to become a Democrat. This puts the number of Senate Republicans at 40, the lowest level in over 30 years, and gives the Democrats, at least on paper, the special majority of 60 votes needed for them to override a filibuster of legislation by the opposition. Besides the obvious advantages for Democrats, Specter's pivotal decision has other important implications, not only for Republicans but also for Democrats.First, it highlights the sad state of the Republican Party: Specter explained that he felt compelled to leave the party because he knew that, as a moderate, he could not win another Republican primary election. The Republican Party under G.W Bush employed the electoral tactic of consolidating the white, Southern, right -wing Christian base, rather than reaching out to the middle. This helped them win two presidential elections and gave credence to the claim that they were the "party of the permanent majority". That was only four years ago. But Bush's disastrous second term had the effect of alienating two major constituencies: the realist establishment in foreign policy who were dismayed by his stated goals of bringing democracy to Iraq and Afghanistan, and the fiscal conservatives who saw the federal budget surplus rapidly turn into deficit. The party then entered a downward spiral of contraction. It lost ground with centrist voters, at a time when the center of the political spectrum was expanding. It suffered from a leadership void that left it at times voiceless, while at other times it spoke in a cacophony of inchoate opinions. During these 100 days, no articulate Republican counter-case was made to Obama's proposals. The "big tent" party has become so narrow in its geographical and ideological base that it is as irrelevant today as the Whigs were in the 1850s.Second, Arlen Specter's switch is also significant in that it may have a moderating force on the Obama agenda, forcing him to accommodate it toward the center instead of pushing ahead at full steam. This could be a timely correction, since some fiscally conservative Democrats (so-called Blue Dog Democrats) are increasingly voicing their concern, not only about the frenetic pace of reforms but also about the ambitious scale of the spending: the request for $ 800 billion in the form of a fiscal stimulus will be followed by another $ 600 billion for health care and $ 500 billion for infrastructure. This will add two trillion dollars to the national debt, and would represent the biggest expansion in the role of the Federal Government since Lyndon B. Johnson's Great Society program. According to Niall Ferguson, economic historian at Harvard, the federal debt which is now around a still-healthy 70% of GDP, will balloon to 180% of GDP, similar to Japan's. These are serious concerns that may come back to haunt the administration further down the line, if the economy does not pull ahead in a year or two.The first one hundred days is by most measures an inconclusive, artificial period of time in which to evaluate a President's success. In all likelihood the next one hundred days will be more determinative, once the legislative agenda moves forward. But we can still use this early stage as a barometer of public support and as a measure of how much Obama has worked to fulfill his campaign promises. In many ways, this period only writes the afterword of the 2008 presidential election. The President has been given an extended period of grace by the American people, in the understanding that he inherited the worst economic crisis since 1930. In the face of tumultuous times and unprecedented unease over the economy, he has maintained his calm and collected demeanor and continued to communicate, explain, and give hope. Thus he was able to avoid a flare- up of populist rage at the excesses of Wall Street, and focus with calm persistence on fixing the economic mess at home and the frayed international ties abroad. His ability to recognize US missteps and open up to the world reaching out to Iran and Cuba has already changed the entire tone of US foreign policy. This new moderation and sensitivity about how others perceive the United States was welcomed around the world and even has not borne fruit yet, it bodes well for future exchanges.The main criticism that has been raised is that the Obama team is embarking on too many different tasks and that this "frenzied flurry" of activity will not allow it to focus on solving the two main problems it faces: the economy and the fight against terrorism. Both are labor intensive and complicated and demand full-time attention and concentration. There is some value in these criticisms, but there are two main reasons why the White House has chosen this approach. First, the President has a vision that ties all his initiatives together, and he so far deserves praise for pursuing it without neglecting any of the major problems he faces. For Obama, fixing the economy alone is not feasible without changing the country's energy base, reforming its health care and education systems. His vision encompasses a technological, knowledge- based economy where the new jobs will be in the green energy sector and in bio-technology and robotics. To meet the job demands of these two revolutions in technology and energy, a third revolution will have to take place in the educational field, with a renewed stress on mathematics and science, as well as a restructuring of curriculums and developing inter-disciplinary skills for problem-solving. At the same time, these revolutions would also transform the international landscape in many ways, some predictable (the demise of oil-based economies would certainly solve a problem or two in the Middle East), others not so. But the United States is clearly at a crossroads in its history and must choose between continuity and demise, or change and a renewed claim to leadership in the XXI century.Second, blessed by a prolonged period of grace granted to them by the American people and the media, and with no opposition in the horizon, the administration has adopted this frenetic pace to make the most of this enlarged window of opportunity. Propelled forward by a vision but at the same time imbued of a healthy pragmatism, Obama has not kept every single promise to every constituency, and has preferred instead to pick his battles. For example, he did not re-open NAFTA in the realization that economic recovery will require free trade. Similarly, he has postponed a fight over making permanent a ban on the sale of assault weapons. He also gave up on pushing for a reduction of farm subsidies when it was clear that Congress Democrats would not yield on that issue. Instead, he has focused on a set of non-negotiable priorities, trying to do as much as he can and knowing that only a few will bear fruit in the long run. Obama is now at the peak of his power but has not lost sense of the ephemeral nature of politics, and he knows that the seeds of the downfall are often sowed at the highest point of power. A student of history, he is well aware that presidents inevitably become reactive, as unforeseen events beyond their control begin to shape their tenures and their place in history. If a year or two from now the economy has not recovered and promises made in the first hundred days remain unfulfilled, disillusionment will set in and his power will wane accordingly. His outsized expansion of the federal government would then be harshly criticized and cost him the support of moderates. His strong repudiation of all of Bush's national security policies, including the publishing of the torture memos, could also become a huge liability in the case of another major terrorist attack. Ultimately, the strongest moment for a president is also the riskiest, since there is a temptation to overreach. Senior Lecturer, Department of Political Science and Geography Director, ODU Model United Nations Program Old Dominion University, Norfolk, Virginia
Inhaltsangabe:Abstract: "Macroeconomic stability and rapid export growth were the two key elements in starting the virtuous circles of high rates of accumulation, efficient allocation, and strong productive growth that formed the basis for East Asia's success." (World Bank, 1993). Public perception of the Asian economies could hardly have shifted more since that time. Currency depreciation, rising corporate bankruptcy, bank failures, and sovereign bonds downgraded to junk bond status ended the euphoria in Asian "emerging markets". Almost overnight, the reputation of the Newly Industrialized Countries (NICs) in East and South East Asia deteriorated from a model of efficient development to an example of worst "crony capitalism". Politicians, rating agencies, and investors were caught off guard by the development of the Asian financial crisis. During the meeting of the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation forum (APEC) in November 1997, U.S. President Bill Clinton referred to the financial crisis in Asia as merely "a few small glitches in the road". Moody's and Standard and Poor's had upgraded the Philippines' long term debt rating a few months earlier and downgraded the affected economies only when the crisis persisted for more than three months. Com-paring Thailand's situation to Mexico's economy prior to the peso crisis 1994-1995, the Morgan Stanley star analyst Barton Biggs wrote in January 1997:"Thailand's problems are cyclical, not secular. Thailand is not Mexico in late1994. [..]On the numbers, Thailand qualifies for the euro and is healthier than Germany". The optimism seemed warranted by a history of high growth in the Asian countries. Before the outbreak of the crisis, Malaysia, Indonesia, Korea, and Thailand had experienced uninterrupted growth of more that 5 percent of GDP per year for almost two decades. The economic profession also experienced its Waterloo in Asia. Economists not only failed to predict the crisis; they also failed to recognize the vulnerability of the region. Paul Krugman (1994) in his now famous article in "Foreign Affairs" was the only well-known economist to doubt the sustainability of rapid growth in East and Southeast Asia. Nevertheless, even he did not predict this kind of collapse, but rather a gradual economic slowdown of growth. Despite the initial confusion among economists, academic discussion about the Asian financial crisis quickly crystallized around two different explanations of the crisis. One explanation of the Asian financial crisis states that the affected countries suffered from constantly deteriorating fundamentals, such as worsening cur-rent account deficits, growing dependence on short-term loans, slowing export growth, and a rising share of non-performing loans. This made a crisis inevitable. Proponents of this explanation believe the Asian countries were ruled by "crony capitalism". Implicit and explicit government guarantees of loans led to over-investment and to investment in non-tradable and risky sectors, such as real estate and the stock market. This created an asset bubble, which eventually burst and dragged the over-leveraged financial intermediaries down with it. The situation was aggravated by the fact that borrowed funds were largely de-nominated in U.S. dollars. The run on the currency and the subsequent abandon of the exchange rate peg gave rise to a skyrocketing debt burden in terms of domestic currency and caused a further spread of bankruptcies.6 Although the proponents of the crony capitalism explanation acknowledge that market might have overreacted, they argue that the exchange rate crisis was fully warranted by fundamentals and not entirely caused by market irrationality. The second explanation blames the outbreak and the spread of the financial crisis in Asia on the intrinsic instability of international lending. According to this explanation, the Asian economies suffered from a state of international illiquidity when the crisis struck. This means that short-term foreign currency obligations exceeded available assets. The countries were therefore vulnerable to runs by their international creditors. Each creditor withdrawing their funds acted ration-ally, as he knew he would incur losses if he failed to withdraw his funds in the case of a financial panic. The change in investors' sentiments succeeded in devastating the Asian economies because they had recently opened the domestic financial markets. Countries with worse banking problems and a higher degree of corruption, like China, Vietnam, and Pakistan, could shield themselves from the crisis because their capital account had not been liberalized prior to the crisis. Jeffrey Sachs and Steven Radelet refer to the Asian financial crisis as a "crisis of success" where international investors' exuberance first led to a lending boom. Once the vulnerability of Asian economies to external shocks was discovered, exuberance turned into panic and investors withdrew their funds leaving the affected economies ravaged. According to this reasoning, the behaviour led to a fundamentally unnecessary crisis. As proponents of the financial panic hypothesis insist, Asian economies showed all signs of following a sustainable path of economic development. This paper analyzes these two competing explanations for the five most affected countries of the Asian crisis: Korea, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Thailand. It is motivated by the systemic implications of the Asian crisis for the stability and regulation of the world financial system. The moral hazard hypothesis implies that financial markets were effective, though belated, messengers of economic ills. This would mean that more liberalization and more transparency would help avoid future crises. The financial panic explanation, by contrast, calls for capital controls as long as an international lender of last resort does not exist. Bhagwati is one of the most prominent opponents of capital account liberalization. He argues that the gains of capital account liberalization are small4compared to the additional risk that the countries incur. If the financial panic hypothesis proved to be true, this would force the economics profession to reconsider the cherished virtues of free capital markets. This paper takes a moderate position and argues that economic development across the affected "Asian Tigers" was uneven and pre-existing weaknesses were so different that generalizations on the causes of the meltdown are not warranted. In the words of Barry Eichengreen, we argue that "not all tigers have the same stripes". The paper is organized as follows. Chapter 2 reconstructs the most important developments leading to the Asian financial crisis and briefly describes the un-folding of the crisis in Thailand and the subsequent spread to other countries in the region. Chapter 3 presents two models of the Asian financial crisis according to the two different sets of explanation. The first model explains the Asian melt-down with moral hazard-induced over-investment, while the second model likens the Asian crisis to a financial panic caused by a loss of investors' confidence. In last section of chapter 3, we evaluate the different models. We find that the moral hazard explanation accurately describes the cases of Thailand and Korea, but does not conform to data for Malaysia, Indonesia, and the Philippines. The missing evidence for the moral hazard model, however, does not prove the existence of an irrational financial panic, but suggests the crisis in Thailand may have precipitated a deterioration of economic fundamentals in neighbouring countries. Chapter 4 focuses specifically on these dynamic effects of the crisis. We consider two channels through which the crisis in Thailand could have induced crises in other developing countries: competitive pressure through third county trade linkages and pure contagion. We find evidence that the devaluation of the baht exerted competitive pressures on the economies of the region. At the same time, there is mixed evidence at best for the existence of herding behaviour of the financial markets. In summary, the paper demonstrates that for Thailand and Korea, the moral hazard model is supported by the evidence. The other countries were on a relatively sustainable path of economic development until the devaluation of the Thai baht raised the cost of maintaining a fixed exchange rate. This result supports calls for an effective international lender of last resort. Einleitung: Die Finanz- und Währungskrise, die 1997 in Asien ausbrach, überraschte die meisten Beobachter. In den 80er und 90er Jahren galten die asiatischen "Tiger" als Vorbilder effizienter wirtschaftlicher Entwicklung. Noch im Frühjahr 1997 nahmen große amerikanische Rating-Agenturen einige der betroffenen Länder in eine bessere Risikoklasse auf und Morgan Stanleys Star-Analyst Barton Biggs schrieb noch im Januar 1997: "Thailand's problem's are cyclical, not secular. [..] On the numbers, Thailand qualifies for the Euro and is healthier than Germany." Diese Sichtweise änderte sich jedoch radikal während der zweiten Hälfte 1997. Die asiatische Länder, die zuvor gelobt worden waren, galten plötzlich als Hort schlimmster Vetternwirtschaft und Ineffizienz. Die Diplomarbeit "The Asian Financial Crisis: Facts and Explanations" nimmt eine Analyse der Finanzkrise in Asien vor und erklärt, wie es zu diesem radikalen Stimmungsumschwung kommen konnte. Mit Hilfe umfangreichen Datenmaterials wird zunächst eine Bestandsaufnahme der Krise vorgenommen. Als nächster Schritt werden zwei konkurrierende Modelle einer Finanzkrise vorgestellt: Ein Modell erklärt die Krise als eine klassische Überinvestitionskrise, die durch "moral hazard" auf Seiten der Unternehmen und der asiatischen Banken hervorgerufen bzw. verstärkt wurde. Das andere Modell sieht die Krise als eine Panikreaktion der Finanzmärkte, die prinzipiell gesunde Unternehmen und Banken in die Insolvenz trieb. Beide Theorien werden anhand von Länderstatistiken und Finanzmarktdaten auf ihre Plausibilität überprüft. Außerdem werden auf Möglichkeiten, durch institutionelle Neuerungen zukünftige Krisen zu vermeiden, hingewiesen. Diese Diplomarbeit ist für alle diejenigen Unternehmen relevant, die trotz der Finanzkrise weiter im asiatischen Wirtschaftsraum aktiv sein wollen. Für sie sind eine fundierte Kenntnis der Ursachen der Krise unerlässlich, um die gegenwärtige Situation und die wirtschaftliche Aussichten in den betroffenen Ländern besser beurteilen zu können.
The results of the individual chapters are summarized below, starting with chapter 2. The first chapter is the introduction. Finally, the main research question is answered. Chapter 2: Limitations and Definitions Definitions for CI and OI were developed from which the variants of the innovation methods were derived. Definitions of CI and OI: Closed Innovation (CI) CI is an innovation method for creating an innovation for an organization, wherein only internal inventors and only this organization is involved in the innovation method. Open Innovation (OI) OI is an innovation method for creating an innovation for an organization, wherein at least one step of the innovation method is outside this organization. Four variants of innovation methods were derived from the definitions of OI and CI, that have the following characteristics: Closed Innovation (CI) One organization and internal inventors Variant 1 of Open Innovation (OI with-an-external-inventor) One organization and at least one external inventor Variant 2 of Open Innovation (firm-to-firm OI (Hagedoorn and Zobel, 2015, p. 1050)) Two or more organizations and internal inventors Variant 3 of Open Innovation (firm-to-firm OI with-an-external-inventor) Two or more organizations and at least one external inventor Inventors are those participants in an innovation process who make a creative contribution in terms of patent law to the resulting innovation. Chapter 3: State of the Scientific Research Evaluation of the state of scientific research has shown that there are very few studies on the interaction between patent law and OI on the low-level of concrete provisions of the patent law. Chapter 4: Coexistence of OI and Patent Law In the scientific community, it has been argued that patent law and OI are contradictory concepts. It was stated that patent law would hinder or even prevent OI. Therefore, it was concluded that patent law should be abolished in order to fully exploit the benefits of the OI concept.(von Hippel and von Krogh, 2006; Wilson, 2009; Baldwin and von Hippel, 2011) Many interfaces between patent law and OI have been found to refute these conclusions. Instead, in some areas patent law even helps to implement the OI concept.(Murray and Stern, 2007; de Jong et al., 2008, pp. 39–40; Hagedoorn and Zobel, 2015) At least, it can be stated that patent law and OI are not fundamentally mutually exclusive. Chapter 5: Touchpoints between OI and Patent Law It has been pointed out that one link between patent law and an OI project is the interface between invention and innovation. The invention is assigned to the subject area of patent law and innovation is assigned to the subject area of OI.(Drucker, 1986, p. 62; Keukenschrijver, 2016b Rdn. 6-10; Moufang, 2017a Rdn. 15) An innovation can be created by an OI project. If this innovation fulfils the requirements of an invention, patent law is relevant. In this case, it can be checked whether the innovation of the OI project can lead to a patent.(Kraßer and Ann, 2016, §25) Furthermore, there are effects on the innovation by the innovation method used such as OI through the prohibition rights of patent law and the legal instrument of unlawful extraction.(Keukenschrijver, 2016o, 2016c, 2016n; Kraßer and Ann, 2016, §§31 and 32; Moufang, 2017n; Rinken, 2017f, 2017a) Therefore there are three points of contact between patent law and OI, namely because OI can result in inventions in terms of patent law, because of the prohibition rights of patent law and because of the legal instrument of unlawful removal. Chapter 6: Properties of an Invention The characteristics of an invention due to patent law were determined, wherein those characteristics, which have to be fulfilled that there is an invention at all, were disregarded. These characteristics must be fulfilled anyway, so that the patent law is relevant at all. An invention according to patent law has the following characteristics: • being in the right language (Schäfers, 2015e; Stauder, 2016a; Moufang, 2017e; Visser, 2017, pp. 18–25), • feasibility (Moufang, 2017c Rdn. 349-362), • susceptible of industrial applicability (Moufang, 2017j; Visser, 2017, pp. 126–127), • being a state secret (Schäfers, 2015i), • mentioning the inventor (Teschemacher, 2016b; Moufang, 2017f), • property in the invention (Keukenschrijver, 2016l; Moufang, 2017l), • novelty (Keukenschrijver, 2016g; Moufang, 2017b) and • inventive activity (Keukenschrijver, 2016j; Moufang, 2017g). Chapter 7: Relevant Properties of an Invention It was found that four properties of an invention are indeed influenced by the innovation method chosen, namely mention of the inventor, property in the invention, novelty and inventive activity. Therefore, these properties have an effect on the way patent law works with respect to the innovation method chosen. The effects of these properties are as follows: • Patent law requires that the inventors will be mentioned.(Teschemacher, 2016b; Moufang, 2017f) Therefore, the inventors must be identified. • In addition, the invention leads directly to a claim to ownership of the invention for the inventor.(Keukenschrijver, 2016l; Moufang, 2017l) Such a claim can, for example, stand in opposition to the wish of an initiator of a crowdsourcing project. Naturally, the initiator strives for ownership of an resulting invention of the crowdsourcing project.(Geschka and Meitinger, 2016) • Due to the open character of OI, there is a danger that an invention will become known and is therefore no longer new and inventive.(Keukenschrijver, 2016g, 2016j, Moufang, 2017b, 2017g) In this case, it is not possible to patent the invention.(Kraßer and Ann, 2016, §25) The following table 44 shows all possible properties of an invention, namely those which are a requirement for being an invention at all, all possible properties in terms of patent law and those properties, which have an effect on the way patent law is working depending on the innovation method chosen. Table 44 shows all properties of an invention. In the first column of the table (requirement of an invention), the properties that are a prerequisite for an invention are determined as "yes". These properties are used in section 5.3.3 of chapter 5 to determine whether an innovation by OI can be an invention under patent law at all. The second column (directing patent law) of the table 44 lists the characteristics of an invention with "yes" that influence the way patent law is working. For example, only a new and inventive invention can become a patent. These properties are determined in chapter 6. Inventorship comprises the characteristics of mention of the inventor and property of the invention. The third column determines those properties of an invention which not only control patent law but are additionally influenced by the type of innovation method chosen. These properties are determined in chapter 7. Chapter 8: Groups of Innovation Methods Four variants of innovation methods before the background of patent law were found, namely: • Closed innovation, • variant 1 of OI: OI with-an-external-inventor, • variant 2 of OI: firm-to-firm OI and • variant 3 of OI: firm-to-firm OI with-an-external-inventor. Closed Innovation (CI) is characterized by the fact that all steps of the innovation process are within one organization. An OI with-an-external-inventor (variant 1 of OI) is an innovation method that is characterized by the participation of at least one external inventor. This inventor is not a member of the organization. The variant 2 of OI is called a firm-to-firm OI (Hagedoorn and Zobel, 2015, p. 1050) which is an OI innovation method wherein at least two organizations, such as companies or universities, are involved in the development of the innovation. Further, all the inventors are internal inventors, which means that every inventor belongs to one of the companies involved in the innovation process. The variant 3 of OI is called a firm-to-firm OI with-an-external-inventor. This variant is characterized by the fact that it is a sequence of the variants 1 and 2 of OI. It does not matter which part of the sequence starts first and which part is succeeding. A grouping of the innovation methods has been carried out. From the viewpoint of patent law, CI and firm-to-firm OI constitute a first group and OI with-an- external-inventor and firm-to-firm OI with-an-external-inventor form a second group: • Group 1 (not critical with regard to patent law): o CI and o firm-to-firm OI • Group 2 (critical with regard to patent law): o OI with-an-external-inventor and o firm-to-firm OI with-an-external-inventor. CI and firm-to-firm OI are to be assessed as not critical before the background of patent law. On the other hand, OI with-an-external-inventor and firm-to-firm OI with-an-external-inventor are critical with regard to all four relevant properties of an invention. Therefore, the characteristic of "having at least one external inventor" means that an innovation method must be regarded as critical. If you add to CI an external inventor you get OI with-an-external-inventor. If you add to firm-to-firm OI an external inventor, you arrive at firm-to-firm OI with-an-external-inventor. CI and OI with-an-external-inventor as well as firm- to-firm OI and firm-to-firm OI with-an-external-inventor therefore represent contradictory pairings from the point of view of patent law, whereby the members of group 1 are uncritical and the innovation methods of group 2 are to be regarded as critical from the viewpoint of patent law. Chapter 9: OI and Prohibition Rights The variants of innovation methods have been categorised on the basis of the possibilities of having the innovations of the innovation methods granted as patents. This resulted in two groups, namely a group 1, which comprises CI and firm-to-firm OI, and as a second group OI with-an-external-inventor and firm- to-firm OI with-an-external-inventor. A further effect on the innovation methods and the resultant innovations may come from the prohibition rights under patent law. The prohibition rights enable a patent holder to prohibit the use of a protected invention.(Keukenschrijver, 2016o, 2016c, Rinken, 2017f, 2017a) The question arose whether a different grouping of the innovation methods results in the light of the prohibition rights due to patent law. However, it was found that the grouping of the innovation methods already determined is also relevant before the background of the prohibition rights. Chapter 10: OI and Unlawful Removal The grouping of innovation methods found was examined in the light of the legal instrument of unlawful removal due to patent law. An invention is deemed to have been withdrawn unlawfully if a person who is not entitled files a patent application for this invention with the patent office.(Keukenschrijver, 2016n; Moufang, 2017n) It was found that the same grouping as in the previous two chapters is valid before the background of the legal instrument of unlawful removal. Chapter 11: Empirical Studies It has been found that CI is dominant in innovations, which result in patent applications. Therefore the importance of OI for patents was questioned.(Meitinger, 2017b, 2017c) The empirical studies of the thesis have confirmed with a more comprehensive examination, that indeed OI, in comparison to CI, plays little role in patent applications. Therefore, at the moment it can be stated, that "Thus, there will likely remain a certain level of ´closed-ness´…".(Keupp and Gassmann, 2009, p. 338) The empirical studies show that there are very few patent applications due to firm-to-firm OI, although firm-to-firm OI is compatible with patent law. However, it must be borne in mind that firm-to-firm OIs can be critical under antitrust law.(Besen and Slobodenjuk, 2011, pp. 300–301; Fuchs, 2012 Rdn. 2-9) It can therefore be assumed that at least some firm-to-firm OI innovation projects might be prevented due to concerns because of antitrust law. On the other hand, innovation methods with an external inventor lead to fewer patent applications compared to the corresponding innovation methods without an external inventor. This result was attributed to the fact that the corresponding innovations are not compatible with patent law. In principle, it would be conceivable that it is not the existence of the external inventor that is responsible for the filing or waiving of a patent application, but in particular the specificity of the organization concerned. For this reason, organizations carrying out innovation methods with external inventors were roughly compared with those organizations carrying out innovation methods without external inventors. No obvious differences in criteria such as company size, industrial sector, etc. were found. Summarizing the empirical studies, CI is dominant with respect to OI with-an- external-inventor and firm-to-firm OI dominates in comparison to firm-to-firm OI with-an-external-inventor. Further, the group 1 is dominant compared to group 2. Therefore, the theoretical findings of the thesis could not be falsified by the empirical studies. Chapter 12: Proposals to amend Patent Law Several suggestions have been developed in this thesis in order to better adapt patent law to OI. A change in the inventor's principle has been proposed to allow organizations to acquire ownership of an invention that they have initiated. Such an amendment is particularly advantageous with regard to OI with-an-external-inventor and firm-to-firm OI with-an-external-inventor, for example as crowdsourcing.(Meitinger, 2017d) A comparison was made between the employer-employee relationship and the relationship of a crowdsourcer to a crowd member. It has been found that there are similarities, suggesting that a similar law to the GEIA for the needs of crowdsourcing should be drawn up.(Meitinger, 2016) Such a special law would be also an adequate response by the legislature to the development of the labor market, with ever more flexible forms of work.(Deinert, 2014; Uffmann, 2016) The 18 months period of secrecy due to §32(2) sentence 1 PatG in conjunction with §31(2) No. 2 PatG prevents the search for current state-of-the-art documents.(Rudloff-Schäffer, 2017a Rdn. 33) This increases legal uncertainty about the patentability of inventions. In particular, inventions of OI projects are affected by this, as their open character increases the likelihood that similar patent applications will be filed. It was proposed to abolish this time period in order to be able to search the relevant prior art as early as possible. This would make it easier to ascertain whether an invention by an external inventor is patentable or whether it infringes third party intellectual property rights.(Meitinger, 2017a) Chapter 13: Miscellaneous Approaches There is an incentive theory as justification for patent law that says that the possibility of patenting an invention would spur technological development, which promotes the economy of the country concerned.(Rogge and Melullis, 2015 Rdn. 3; Keukenschrijver, 2016q Rdn. 68) However, patent law is evaluated by other scholars as disadvantageous because of macroeconomic concerns.(Mansfield, 1986, p. 180; Chu, 2009, p. 75; Lerner, 2009, p. 347) Therefore, patent law is seen controversial.(Encaoua and Hollander, 2002, p. 63; Shapiro, 2002, p. 70) The abolition of patent law was recommended. Alternatively, it is recommended a case law which favors OI, as OI is generally considered to be worthy of protection.(Wiebe, 2004; Boyle, 2006) However, this cannot be taken across the board, as OI is also used to monopolize markets. This can be done by the introduction of products to the markets being available for free. This ensures a high market penetration, wherein complements of these products are not accessible for free. These complements are needed for full functionality and will be made accessible only after sale.(West and Gallagher, 2006, pp. 325–327) For this reason, the jurisprudence should not be based on the assumption of consistently positive OI projects. A further possibility to improve harmonization of OI and patent law can result from the use of the technology of smart contracts. Smart contracts could manage innovations of OI projects in such a way, that their patentability is not infringed. Additionally an disadvantageous influence, which occurs through the prohibition rights of patent law or through the legal instrument of unlawful extraction could be prevented.(Meitinger, 2017f) In addition, a smart contract could design the ownership rights to an invention in such a way that they are more suitable for OI. Chapter 14: Recommendations for Users of OI Suggestions for OI users have been developed before the background of the current patent law. One suggestion is to document all contributions of the inventors with their date and origin. This makes it possible to meet the legal requirements of patent law after mention the inventors. In addition, it is recommended to enter into appropriate transfer agreements with each inventor so that ownership of the invention can be acquired.(Geschka and Meitinger, 2016, p. 33) It is recommendable to file the resulting invention with a patent office as early as possible. In this case, an early filing date protects against third party patents.(Keukenschrijver, 2016i Rdn. 3-4; Kraßer and Ann, 2016, §25 Rdn. 6; Teschemacher, 2016a Rdn. 1; Moufang, 2017d Rdn. 11-15). ; Administración y Dirección de Empresas
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Russia's war against Ukraine has brought back to the spotlight the question of China's (officially the People's Republic of China, PRC) potential attack on Taiwan (officially the Republic of China, ROC). Beijing claims that the island is one of its provinces, whereas the current Taiwanese government maintains that it is already an independent country. A conflict over Taiwan – or even a Chinese blockade of the island – would have immediate economic and political implications for Europe which will likely impose sanctions on the PRC, the EU's second-largest trading partner.[1] The EU is not a security actor in East Asia, but has some formidable – and unique – soft power assets that could be leveraged to promote dialogue and understanding between China and Taiwan, with the objective of reducing tensions in the area and maintaining the status quo.In search of a thaw in Cross-Strait relations Cross-Strait relations – the relations between the PRC and ROC – have worsened in recent years.[2] Official lines of communication have been interrupted. Travel links between the two countries were frequent before the Covid-19 pandemic era – but no longer. Many Taiwanese are now avoiding the mainland, though they can still enter there by showing their identity card (the Taiwanese passport is not recognised by the PRC), while for many Chinese citizens it is almost impossible to travel to Taiwan for work, study or even tourism. A wall has been erected between the two sides, and each blames the other for this situation. On 20 May 2024, Lai Ching-te, also known as William Lai, who won the presidential election in January, will inaugurate his Presidency. As a member of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and vice-president under Tsai Ing-wen – the first female president of the country in power from 2016 to 2024 – Lai is known for his pro-independence stance. No wonder that his election has been met with uneasiness by Chinese leaders who were betting on the victory of the Kuomintang (KMT – or Guomindang, the Chinese Nationalist Party), a conservative party whose origin goes back to the establishment of the ROC and that traditionally seeks to promote dialogue and reconciliation with the mainland. In the last parliamentary elections also held in January, the KMT won 52 seats, making it the largest single party in the Legislative Yuan (Taiwan's Parliament). The DPP, having won 51 seats, declined to the second largest party while the Taiwan People's Party (TPP) – a recently created centre-left political force – ranked third with eight seats. In other words, while DPP candidate William Lai won the presidential race, his party failed to obtain the majority in a Parliament now controlled by the opposition. Thus, many analysts have suggested that while the Taiwanese continue to support the DPP pro-independence position, they also want to de-escalate tensions with China – hence the slight majority given to the KMT.[3] On the other side of the Strait, the PRC's leadership seems to recognise that it can no longer use economics to bring about unification and that the so-called 'one country, two systems' approach, after its failure in Hong Kong and the clear hostility toward it in Taiwan, no longer works. Although the possibility of an invasion of the island remains, it entails serious risks for the Chinese leadership, as the US and its allies would likely impose harsh sanctions on China. An economic downturn would undermine the legitimacy of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), particularly among the urban middle classes: having enjoyed rising standards of living in recent decades, the latter have then become the staunchest supporters of the Chinese regime – but they have much to lose from a war. The survival of the party is the top priority in Beijing, thus reunification with Taiwan by force can wait for the moment. In the meantime, President Xi Jinping has allegedly tasked Wang Huning, a member of the powerful CCP Politburo Standing Committee and the CCP's 'chief ideologue' as well as China's most senior official in charge of Taiwan's policy, to come up with a new framework for unification.[4] A new CCP approach to Taiwan seems to be emerging, one that emphasises "shared roots" – as seen during the meeting between Xi and former Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou on 10 April 2024. On that occasion, Xi declared that "nobody can stop family reunion" with Taiwan, highlighting the importance of common history and culture between the two sides.[5] A similar tone was used at the end of April, when a delegation of 17 KMT lawmakers went to Beijing to meet Wang Huning in what was called an "ice breaker trip".[6] Yet, during the discussions between the two sides, more than 30 People's Liberation Army military aircraft were detected near Taiwan – one of the highest daily incursions in 2024, signalling that Beijing, while wanting to reset ties with Taiwan, continues however to maintain pressure over the island. In the current tense situation, it is not only the KMT which seeks dialogue with Beijing. President Lai has also repeatedly expressed his hope to re-establish communication with Beijing, based on equality and mutual respect. During the electoral campaign, Lai even said he hoped to meet with Xi Jinping over beef noodles and bubble tea.[7] As both China and Taiwan seek a thaw in their bilateral relations, it could be a perfect time for the EU to step up its involvement in Cross-Strait affairs to see whether dialogue and understanding can be increased, and tensions defused. The EU is not perceived as a threatening force and its image in East Asia is that of, mainly, a civilian and soft power actor. The EU could thus act as a facilitator of dialogue in a way that other major players cannot.Think trilateral: China-EU-Taiwan European governments continue to officially abide by the "One China" policy – that is, the acknowledgement of Beijing's position that there is only one Chinese government. Under this policy, the EU and its member states recognise and have formal ties with the PRC rather than Taiwan. In practice, however, EU institutions and European governments are treating Taiwan as a "de facto" independent state with which they are entitled to entertain economic and political relations.[8] The European Parliament is leading efforts aimed at upgrading relations with Taiwan. In December 2023, EU lawmakers unanimously passed a resolution on promoting EU-Taiwan trade and investment ties, calling for peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait and oppose any unilateral changes to the status quo by force.[9] European lawmakers – both at the national and EU levels – continue to travel to the island to show support for Taiwan. Many EU member states regularly send government delegations notwithstanding criticism from Beijing. The Europeans, however, tend to avoid being confrontational vis-à-vis Beijing when it comes to Taiwan, contrary to the United States which does not shy away from openly provoking China. The EU has little real leverage on both Beijing and Washington regarding Cross-Strait relations. While the maintenance of the status-quo is in the long-term interest of the EU, the defence of the island from an attack – or blockade – from the mainland is left to the care of the US and its Asian allies. What the EU can instead do is to leverage its soft power assets in the region. The Jean Monnet Centres of Excellence scattered in many countries, including in China and Taiwan, are an asset that Brussels could use to promote dialogue and understanding between the two sides of the Strait. These centres are focal points of competence and knowledge on EU issues.[10] Managed by the European Commission, but with close links with the EU Delegation in the host country, they aim to promote knowledge of the EU, its policies and values, through academic research, partnerships and programmes of public activities. Until last year, Chinese and Taiwanese scholars working at the Jean Monnet Centres of Excellence in their respective countries regularly met to discuss – using the Chinese language – issues related to the EU, its history of reconciliation and the process of European integration. This year, due to heightened tensions, no such meeting is planned. It would be in the strategic interest of the EU to step in and facilitate such a meeting among EU experts located on the two sides of the Taiwan Strait. And should such meeting be impossible to be held in either China or Taiwan for political reasons, the EU should offer to host it in Singapore, where there is a very active EU Centre. It would not be the first time that the EU Centres would be leveraged by the EU to promote the reasons of dialogue and mutual understanding in the region. For instance, the EU delegation in Seoul has consistently backed the Trilateral Cooperation process, a consultative mechanism which involves China-Japan-South Korea, by supporting, both politically and financially, various workshops and initiatives organised for young students with the aim of promoting mutual understanding and the sense of friendship among future leaders of the three countries. These activities are often supported by – and held at – the Jean Monnet Centres of Excellence located in the three North-East Asian nations. Recent developments inside China and Taiwan should thus invite the EU to consider doing something similar in the context of Cross-Strait relations. The EU should seriously start thinking 'trilateral': China-EU-Taiwan, finding ways to facilitate dialogue between Chinese and Taiwanese experts of the EU. A concrete step in this direction could be the establishment of a Think Tank Forum on China-EU-Taiwan relations. By keeping it at the level of scholars and by focusing on EU studies (avoiding, at least officially, sensitive issues) it may overcome resistance from various quarters. By doing that, the EU would make strategic use of some of its soft power capabilities. With little investment in terms of time and resources, it may contribute to dialogue and understanding in a region where, should tensions spiral out of control, the result could be very damaging not only for the EU, but for the entire world.Nicola Casarini is Associate Fellow at the Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI) and Taiwan Fellowship Program Visiting Scholar at the EU Centre, National Taiwan University, Taipei.[1] Niklas Swanström, Agust Börjesson and Yi-Chieh Chen (eds), "Why Taiwan Matters to Europe", in ISDP Special Papers, May 2024, https://www.isdp.eu/publication/why-taiwan-matters-to-europe.[2] Lindsay Maizland, "Why China-Taiwan Relations Are So Tense", in CFR Backgrounders, 8 February 2024, https://www.cfr.org/node/227980.[3] Brian Hart et al., "Taiwan's 2024 Elections: Results and Implications", in CSIS Critical Questions, 19 January 2024, https://www.csis.org/node/108968.[4] John Dotson, "Wang Huning's First Year Supervising the United Front System: Taiwan Policy and Discourse", in Global Taiwan Brief, Vol. 9, No. 1 (January 2024), p. 8-11, https://globaltaiwan.org/?p=25078.[5] "China's Xi Says Nobody Can Stop 'Family Reunion' with Taiwan", in Reuters, 10 April 2024, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/chinese-president-xi-meets-former-taiwan-president-ma-beijing-2024-04-10.[6] "KMT Lawmakers' Trip to China Receives Mixed Responses in Taiwan", in Focus Taiwan, 29 April 2024, https://focustaiwan.tw/politics/202404290022.[7] Courtney Donovan Smith, "Could China Employ an Insidious Boiled Frog Approach to Improve Taiwan Ties?", in Taipei Times, 14 May 2024, https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/feat/archives/2024/05/14/2003817824.[8] Nicola Casarini, "Brussels–Taipei: Changing the Game?", in IAI Commentaries, No. 22|43 (September 2022), p. 1, https://www.iai.it/en/node/16049.[9] European Parliament, Resolution of 13 December 2023 on EU-Taiwan Trade and Investment Relations, https://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/TA-9-2023-0472_EN.html.[10] For more information see the Erasmus+ website: Jean Monnet Centres of Excellence, https://erasmus-plus.ec.europa.eu/node/515.
Using a new and representative data set of Chinese household finance, this paper documents household access to and costs of finance, along with their correlates. As in most developing countries, informal finance is a crucial element of household finance, and wealth tends to be associated with better access to formal and informal finance. Better financial knowledge shifts loan portfolios toward formal sources relative to informal ones. Connections to the Communist Party are associated with significantly better access to finance in rural areas but not in urban areas. A larger social network is positively associated with access to informal finance. Controlling for household characteristics, rural residents pay interest rates on loans similar to urban residents. Younger residents pay higher rates, while households on firmer economic footing face lower rates. Taking financial classes and college education is associated with higher interest rates for urban residents, suggesting perhaps that financial knowledge coincides with greater demand for credit in areas with more economic opportunity. Overall, the findings suggest that Chinese residents face dual credit markets, with the poor, young, those with poor financial knowledge, and those with larger family sizes relying much more on informal finance, while others are better able to access formal finance.
The literature on the economics of happiness in developed economies finds discrepancies between reported measures of well-being and income measures. One is the so-called Easterlin paradox: that average happiness levels do not increase as countries grow wealthier. This article explores how that paradox and survey research on reported wellbeing in general can provide insights into the gaps between standard measures of economic development and individual assessments of welfare. Analysis of research on reported wellbeing in Latin America and Russia finds notable discrepancies between respondent assessments of their own wellbeing and income or expenditure based measures. Accepting a wide margin for error in both types of measures, the article posits that taking such discrepancies into account may improve the understanding of development outcomes by providing a broader view on wellbeing than do income or expenditure based measures alone. It suggests particular areas where research on reported well-being has the most potential to contribute. Yet the article also notes that some interpretations of happiness research psychologist set point theory, in particular may be quite limited in their application to development questions and cautions against the direct translation of results of happiness surveys into policy recommendations.