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Expert judgments expressed as subjective probability distributions provide an appropriate means of incorporating technical uncertainty in some quantitative policy studies. Judgments and distributions obtained from several experts allow one to explore the extent to which the conclusions reached in such a study depend on which expert one talks to. For the case of sulfur air pollution from coal‐fired power plants, estimates of sulfur mass balance as a function of plume flight time are shown to vary little across the range of opinions of leading atmospheric scientists while estimates of possible health impacts are shown to vary widely across the range of opinions of leading scientists in air pollution health effects.

AbstractHydrogen refueling stations (HRSs) are among the most important infrastructures for fuel cell vehicles. However, the safety issue of HRSs has become a key constraint to the wide application and development of hydrogen energy. This article presents a quantitative risk assessment of the first liquid HRS (LHRS) in China and conducts a comprehensive assessment in terms of both individual (IR) and societal risks (SRs). The results showed that both the IRs and SRs related to the LHRS exceeded the risk acceptance criteria. The rupture of the flexible hose of the dispenser and the leak from the compressor are the main contributors to these risks. On the other hand, implementing appropriate mitigation measures on the level of the LHRS dispenser and compressor, including the addition of breakaway couplings in the flexible hose of the dispenser, the installation of hydrogen detection sensors, the arrangement of automatic and manual emergency shutdown buttons, and the elevation of the compressor, is capable of reducing the risk of the LHRS to be within the risk acceptance criteria.

Twenty-five years have passed since the collapse of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR), which led to the disruption of the regional check-and-balance system aimed at resolving national issues and political and socioeconomic contradictions. It also resulted in a number of armed conflicts, including those in the Chechen Republic, Nagorno-Karabakh, Transnistria, Tajikistan, Abkhazia, South Ossetia and later in the South-East of Ukraine. Immediately following the collapse of the USSR, key international actors paid special attention to the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) region while trying to secure own interests. This led to the further stratification of the CIS region. A "geopolitical pluralism" started to form there, marked by the fragmentation of nation-state sovereignty over the territory. The concept and policy of "geopolitical pluralism" as developed by Zbigniew Brzezinski meets the interests of the United States by making the CIS region more manageable, while at the same time making it more difficult for Russia to implement its own strategic tasks there. The key goal of Russia is the creation of an integrated economic and political union able to take a rightful place in the world. Only the development of deep and comprehensive integration with the CIS states can ensure the competitiveness of Russia's position in the world as well as the positions of its partners in the former Soviet space. The purpose of this article is to assess the level of geopolitical pluralism in the CIS space taking account of the membership of the CIS countries in international organizations and their voting on UN General Assembly resolutions. The study is based on the interconnection of quantitative and qualitative methods of analysis of international relations and world politics. During the past quarter century following the collapse of the Soviet Union, a regional system of international relations has formed in its place. Despite the fact that the CIS is a kind of linking element which unites most of the former Soviet republics, a certain competition between the new states has become the characteristic feature of the political relations in the region. The policy of the west (primarily the United States) became a kind of a branched, diversified strategy aimed at the phased development, transformation and fragmentation of the region. The diversity of foreign policy priorities among the CIS states and the presence of many actors in the region makes mutual understanding and good-neighbourliness between these countries difficult to achieve. To the contrary, this diversity seriously complicates and slows down the development of deep and comprehensive integration, making it more unstable and ineffective. © HSE, 1993-2018.

We show that Quantitative Easing (QE) stimulates investment via a corporate-bond lending channel. Fedâ s large-scale asset purchases of MBS and treasuries through QE creates a vacuum of safe assets, prompting safer firms to invest more by issuing relatively "safe" bonds. Using micro-data around QE, we find that QE increases firm-level investment by 7.4 percentage points for firms with bond market access. This growth is financed with senior bonds. We find no evidence of higher shareholdersâ payouts associated to QE. The robust findings are consistent with a model in which reducing the supply of government debt lowers "safe" corporate bond yields, stimulating investment.

Mestrado em Economia Monetária e Financeira ; O objectivo desta dissertação é apresentar os programas de Quantitative Easing levados a cabo nos Estados Unidos da América, Reino Unido, Zona Euro e no Japão durante a Crise Financeira de 2007-2009 e avaliar o seu impacto na variação das taxas de juro de longo prazo para títulos do Governo, usando dados mensais e trimestrais. A analise empírica consiste em quatro equações para cada frequência temporal usando um estimador OLS. No caso dos USA, foi encontrado suporte de que as politicas de QE diminuem a taxa de juro de longo prazo para títulos do Governo. A mesma relação foi encontrada para o Reino Unido, no entanto com menos assertividade. Os resultados para a Zona Euro e para o Japão foram ambíguos, não foi possível determinar o impacto das medidas de QE para estes países. ; The aim of this dissertation is to clarify the Quantitative Easing programmes employed by the United States of America, United Kingdom, Euro Area and Japan during the financial crisis of 2007-2009 and assess its impact into the variation of the long-term Government bond yield, using monthly and quarterly based data. The empirical analysis consisted in four equations for each timeframe using an OLS estimator. It was found evidence supporting that QE diminishes the variation of the long-term Government bond yield in the US. On the UK case, it was found evidence that QE measures reduces the explained variable but with modest strength. In the EA and in Japan the results were ambiguous and one cannot be assertive about the impact of QE policies for both economies. ; info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion

We introduce the rationale for a new peer-reviewed scholarly journal, theJournal of Quantitative Description: Digital Media. The journal is intendedto create a new venue for research on digital media and address severaldeficiencies in the current social science publishing landscape. First,descriptive research is undersupplied and undervalued. Second, researchquestions too often only reflect dominant theories and received wisdom.Third, journals are constrained by unnecessary boundaries defined bydiscipline, geography, and length. Fourth, peer review is inefficient andunnecessarily burdensome for both referees and authors. We outline thejournal's scope and structure, which is open access, fee-free and relies on aLetter of Inquiry (LOI) model. Quantitative description can appeal to socialscientists of all stripes and is a crucial methodology for understanding thecontinuing evolution of digital media and its relationship to importantquestions of interest to social scientists.

Cover -- Half Title -- Title Page -- Copyright Page -- Table of Contents -- List of illustrations -- About the author -- About the book -- 1. Introduction -- Criteria for statistical testing -- Types of data -- Data sets used as example studies -- Missing data -- 2. Statistical significance and contingency tables -- Statistical significance -- Contingency tables -- How to report contingency tables -- 3. Factor analysis: Exploratory -- Exploratory factor analysis -- Discovering latent factors -- Factor analysis for data reduction -- Calculating and using latent factors in future analysis -- Missing values -- How to report factor analysis -- 4. Correlation and linear regression -- Scatter diagram -- Correlation -- Spearman's rank correlation coefficient (Spearman's rho) -- Kendall's Tau correlation (τ) -- Correlations between two variables of different scales -- How to report correlations -- Calculating correlation with Stata and SPSS -- Linear regression -- Multicollinearity -- Multivariate linear regression -- Linear regression sample size conditions -- How to report linear regression -- 5. Factor analysis: Confirmatory -- Constructing First Order CFA Models -- More complex CFA models -- Uncovering structures in questionnaires -- Longitudinal measurement invariance -- How to report confirmatory factor analysis -- 6. Regression: Logistic -- Simple logistic regression -- Multivariable analysis -- Complex multinomial models -- How to report logistic regression -- 7. Making choices: Discrete choice theory -- Stated and revealed preference -- A simple consumer choice model -- Multinomial logistic regression model with socio-economic factors -- Ordered logit choice model -- The range of discrete choice models -- How to calculate ordered and ordinal regression -- 8. Item response theory -- Item response model -- Differential item testing.

In contrast to hierarchical leadership within intra-organizational contexts, leaders of inter-organizational networks have to lead across organizational boundaries without hierarchical fiat or directive authority. The central research question of Susanne Ruckdaschel is how leadership behavior of network managers can influence network performance. Hereby, relational leadership in the form of empowering leadership is regarded as decisive criterion. Her study focuses on the interplay between network leaders and network companies. The perspectives of both the network managers and the network membe

An typischen und realitätsnahen Beispielen aus der Wirtschaftspraxis zeigt dieses ?Statistik-Praktikum?, wie man grundlegende statistische Analysen mit einem gängigen Werkzeug unterstützt. Dies mit dem Ziel, aus den zu dem Thema verfügbaren Daten Informationen zu gewinnen, die im Sach- bzw. Entscheidungszusammenhang sinn- und wertvoll sind. Dabei ist der numerische Veredelungsprozess durch statistische Analysen in der Praxis nur der Kern eines umfangreicheren Transferprozesses, der ergänzend noch Übersetzungen, Interpretationen und Bewertungen erfordert

New media is playing an important role in the financial world. Rapid growth in stock market message boards, chat rooms, and other electronic means for investors to share market information makes clear the ever-increasing demand for online stock trading. In addition to an increasing number of related sites and apps, growth in the number of investors participating has exploded. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the Federal Trade Commission are especially interested in tracking the activities on stock market message boards in order to protect market credibility.Stock Message Boards provides empirical data to reveal how online communication not only impacts stock returns, but also volatility, trading volume, and liquidity, as well as a firm's value and reputation. Zhang demonstrates the long-term value of stock market message boards by using simple mathematics and statistics to show readers how to measure message board activities. This work argues that online message boards are more effective for small capitalization stocks than large capitalization stocks, and more prominent for financially-distressed firms than financially-sound firms