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One of the most intractable debates in the field of world politics concerns the linkage of systemic structure to international conflict. The dialogue has focused on the relative merits of bipolar versus multipolar and, more recently, polycentric structures. Advocates of each System have their adherents and, for some time now, have agreed to disagree.
Most of the debate over structure and conflict thus far has been cast in terms that do not facilitate its resolution. The objective of this study is to work toward a more compelling empirical judgment of the competing claims. Specifically, that involves revision of the central concepts. Structure cannot be assessed only in terms of distribution of power; the concept also should incorporate the notion of autonomous decision centres. With respect to conflict, most commonly referred to as instability, war is held to be a less comprehensive measurement than international crisis.
Renewed testing focuses on the linkage of structure to conflict as so defined. Data from the International Crisis Behaviour Project on 280 cases from 1929 to 1979 provide the evidence to compare the phases of structure. The differences that emerge among multipolarity, bipolarity and polycentrism with respect to patterns of conflict are generally consistent with theoretical expectations.

Preliminary Material -- Introduction to the Regulation of International Shipping /Aldo Chircop , Norman Letalik , Ted L. McDorman and Susan J. Rolston -- Straits Used for International Navigation: Some Recent Developments /Tommy Koh -- Law, Economics and Politics: Trinidad and Tobago/Grenada Maritime Boundary Delimitation /Carlyle L. Mitchell -- Regulation of High Seas Fisheries in the Northwest Atlantic, 1976–2010 /A. William Moreira -- Reasonable Bond and the Jurisprudence of the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea: Some Brief Remarks /L. Dolliver M. Nelson -- Do We Need a New Convention on Piracy and Armed Robbery Against Ships? /Robert C. Beckman -- Piracy across Maritime Law: Is There a Problem of Definition? /Aref Fakhry -- A Commentary on the Great Arctic Melt and Its Potential Impact on Global Shipping Patterns /Brian Flemming -- Russia's Northern Sea Route – Much to Do /R. Douglas Brubaker and Claes Lykke Ragner -- The Polluter Pays Principle: Preventing Ship-Source Pollution in the Arctic /Kenneth A. MacInnis -- Regional Cooperation in the South China Sea and the Arctic: Lessons to Be Learned? /David L. VanderZwaag and Hai Dang Vu -- The Treaty-Making Work of the Legal Committee of the International Maritime Organization /Alfred Popp -- Will Insurance Cover That? A Review of the Challenges Faced by Coastal States Seeking to Recoup Costs for Removal of Wrecks under the Nairobi Wreck Removal Convention /Eric Machum and Frank Metcalf -- The Urgency of Reducing Air Pollution from Global Shipping /Sherry P. Broder and Jon M. Van Dyke -- Maritime Cabotage: International Market Issues in the Liberalization of Domestic Shipping /Mary R. Brooks -- Safer Ships and Cleaner Seas: The Insurer's Role /Kjetil Eivindstad and Christopher Petrie -- Economic Losses and Environmental Damage in the Law of Ship-Source Pollution /Proshanto K. Mukherjee -- Marine Oil and Gas Pollution Spills in Australian Waters /Vincent Cogliati-Bantz , Sarah Derrington , Craig Forrest , Nick Gaskell and Michael White -- Forging or Foregoing the 'Genuine Link'? A Reflection on the Maritime Labour Convention, 2006 and Other Approaches /Moira L. McConnell -- Perceptions and Attitudes of Seafarers Towards Maritime Regulations: An Historical Perspective /Alastair Couper -- The Continuing Criminalization of Seafarers: Where To Go From Here? /Sarah M. Kirby -- Seafarers' Welfare Development in Southeast Asia: A Commentary /Nien-Tsu Alfred Hu -- Reflections on a Changing Industry and the Seafaring Profession /Angus McDonald -- Future Sea Captains: Environmentally Responsible Global Citizens /Arthur J. Hanson -- Canada's Vessel Traffic Management Regime: An Overview in the Context of International Law /Ted L. McDorman -- Forum Shopping Comes to Canada: The Recognition of Foreign Maritime Liens /Norman Letalik -- The Continuing Evolution of Maritime Law Jurisdiction in Canada /Aldo Chircop -- "Change My Way of Thinking": Canadian Maritime Law and the Supreme Court of Canada, The Edgar Gold Years /Wylie Spicer -- Selected Publications of Edgar Gold -- Index.

This special issue is conceived out of the proposition that recent developments in quantum theory as well as innovations in quantum technology have profound implications for international relations, especially in the field of international security. Interaction with quantum theory outside the circle of physics has been limited; our goal is to catalyse an informed debate on the virtues of quantum theory for international relations. As new scientific discoveries and technological applications suggest large-scale quantum phenomena, near-simultaneous interconnectivity creates global entanglements, and ubiquitous media produce profound observer-effects, we wish to make of quantum theory a human science. With the arrival of quantum computing, communications and artificial intelligence, we can also expect to see significant transformations in the nature, production and distribution of power and knowledge. This special issue introduces quantum approaches that can help us better understand, anticipate and perhaps even ameliorate the most pressing global issues facing us today and in the near future.

This thesis contributes to three major fields in the international finance literature: forward premium anomaly, monetary policy and exchange rate determination, and measuring monetary policy expectations from asset prices. In the first chapter, I develop a production-based asset pricing model predicting that excess returns of currency carry trade compensate investors for the commodity price risk. Commodity producers differ in their exposure to the export price risk. Exchange rate-commodity price covariance, procyclical interest rates, negative price of exchange rate volatility, and countercyclical currency risk premium arise endogenously. Empirically, risk factors implied by the model explain up to 55% of time-series variation in carry trade returns across developed countries, and generate substantial risk- and transaction costs-adjusted returns as tradable strategies. In the second chapter (jointly with Igor Pozdeev), we document a drift in exchange rates before monetary policy changes across major economies. Currencies tend to depreciate by 0.8% over ten days before policy rate cuts and appreciate by 0.5% before policy rate increases. We show that available fixed income instruments allow to forecast monetary policy decisions and thus that the drift is exploitable by investors. Buying (selling) currencies ten days in advance of predicted target rate hikes (cuts) earns on average a statistically significant excess return of over 40 basis points per ten-day period after trading costs. We further demonstrate that this return is robust to the choice of holding horizon and monetary policy forecast rule. Our results thus pose a major challenge for the risk-based explanations of the exchange rate dynamics. In the third chapter (jointly with Igor Pozdeev), we document overnight index swaps (OIS) to be unbiased predictors of future short rates in developed economies, bearing no significant risk premium for maturities up to one year. We show that the OIS underlying overnight rates accurately reflect the target rates set by central banks. We extract the implied future target rates from the OIS prices to predict the outcome of monetary policy meetings around the world. In the US, a randomly selected triplet of a target rate hike, cut and no-change is correctly classified using the OIS-implied rates in 99.9 and 98% of cases five and ten days before a FOMC announcement respectively. We report similarly high prediction accuracy for other developed countries.

How can democracy best be pursued and promoted in the existing global system? In this article, I propose a novel suggestion: democratization should occur at the level of international regime complexity. Because each issue-area of world politics is distinct, we require tailor-made (as opposed to one-size-fits-all) responses to the global democratic deficit. I conceptualize global democracy as an ongoing process of democratization in which a set of core normative values are more or less satisfied. I explicate equal participation, accountability, and institutional revisability as those key standards. I argue that the democratization of regime complexes should occur across two distinct planes: (1) the realm of multilateral negotiations; and (2) institutional forms of democratic experimentalism between rule-makers and rule-takers. I evaluate and defend the potential of this argument by analyzing the intellectual property rights regime complex. Because intellectual property rights represent a 'tough case' for global democrats, we should be optimistic about the democratization of alternative regime complexes. [Reprinted by permission; copyright Sage Publications Ltd. & ECPR-European Consortium for Political Research.]

Unterhaltsvereinbarungen in Familienbeziehungen liegen an der Schnittstelle von Vertrags- und Familienrecht. Ausgehend von einem weiten Unterhaltsbegriff beleuchtet Carolin Scheuer, welche Arten von Unterhaltsvereinbarungen im deutschen Recht typischerweise in Erscheinung treten und welche materiell- und prozessrechtlichen Regeln auf sie anwendbar sind. Sodann untersucht sie die Anwendbarkeit der Europäischen Unterhaltsverordnung, der Brüssel Ia-Verordnung, des Haager Unterhaltsprotokolls und der Rom I-Verordnung auf Unterhaltsvereinbarungen. Sie zeigt auf, dass sämtliche Vereinbarungen der Europäischen Unterhaltsverordnung und dem Haager Unterhaltsprotokoll unterfallen, soweit sie Ansprüche aufgrund einer Familienbeziehung regeln, die der Bedarfsdeckung des Gläubigers dienen. Auf das Bestehen gesetzlicher Unterhaltspflichten kommt es für die Einordnung aus Gründen der Rechtssicherheit nicht an.InhaltsübersichtKapitel 1: Einleitung A. Anlass der ArbeitB. UntersuchungsgegenstandC. Ziel und Gang der Untersuchung Kapitel 2: Unterhaltsvereinbarungen im deutschen Sach- und Verfahrensrecht A. Gesetzliche UnterhaltsansprücheB. UnterhaltsbegriffC. Zwecke von UnterhaltsvereinbarungenD. Arten von Unterhaltsvereinbarungen und VertragstypenE. Zulässigkeit von UnterhaltsvereinbarungenF. Anpassung der Unterhaltsvereinbarung an veränderte UmständeG. Einordnung von Unterhaltsvereinbarungen im deutschen Verfahrensrecht Kapitel 3: Unterhaltsvereinbarungen im internationalen Privat- und Zivilverfahrensrecht A. ÜberblickB. Unterschiede in der Behandlung von Unterhaltsvereinbarungen in den europäischen Regelwerken zum IPR und IZVRC. Der sachliche Anwendungsbereich der EuUntVOD. Einordnung einzelner Arten von VereinbarungenE. Regelungsvorschlag Kapitel 4: Zusammenfassung der wesentlichen Ergebnisse

Rent-sharing between firm owners and workers is a robust empirical finding. If workers bargain with firms, information on the actual surplus is essential. When the firm can use profit shifting to create private information on the surplus, it can thereby reduce its wage bill. We study how rent sharing and this wage incentive for profit shifting affect the ability of governments to tax multinational companies in a standard model of international tax competition. We find that if firms only have a tax incentive for profit shifting, rent-sharing decreases the competitive pressure on the large country and leads to higher equilibrium tax rates. When we allow for the wage channel, this result can change. If the wage incentive is sufficiently strong, rent-sharing increases the competitive pressure on the large country, implying a lower equilibrium tax rate.

"International Relations as a Social Science" published on by Oxford University Press.

The effectiveness of migration policies has been widely contested in the face of their supposed failure to steer immigration and their hypothesized unintended, counter-productive effects. However, due to fundamental methodological and conceptual limitations, evidence has remained inconclusive. While the migration policy research is often descriptive and receiving-country biased, migration determinants research tends to be based on obsolete, theoretically void push-pull and gravity models which tend to omit crucial non-economic, sending-country and policy factors. More fundamentally, this state-of-the-art reveals a still limited understanding of the forces driving migration. Although there is consensus that macro-contextual economic and political factors and meso-level factors such as networks all play 'some' role, there is no agreement on their relative weight and mutual interaction. To start filling that gap, this paper outlines the contours of a conceptual framework for generating improved insights into the ways states and policies shape migration processes in their interaction with structural migration determinants in receiving and sending countries. First, it argues that the fragmented insights from different disciplinary theories can be integrated in one framework through conceptualizing virtually all forms of migration as a function of capabilities and aspirations. Second, to increase conceptual clarity it distinguishes the preponderant role of states in migration processes from the hypothetically more marginal role of specific immigration and emigration policies. Subsequently, it hypothesizes four different (spatial, categorical, inter-temporal, reverse flow) 'substitution effects' which can partly explain why polices fail to meet their objectives. This framework will serve as a conceptual guide for the DEMIG (The Determinants of International Migration) research project.