Suchergebnisse

Consolidating their integration in NATO and in the European defence system, and likewise their position and standing in the international peacekeeping family, Spain's Armed Forces are presently also undergoing a substantial reorganisation and modernisation preocess. This process is being followed very closely and personally by HM King Juan Carlos I, who is the Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces according to the Constitution. (Military Technology/SWP)

Im Februar 2000 fand im Institut für USA- und Kanadastudien der Russischen Akademie der Wissenschaften ein internationales Seminar zum Thema: "Peacebuilding nach dem Ende des Kalten Kriegs" statt. Die Vorträge und Diskussionsbeiträge werden im Wortlaut wiedergegeben. Es werden sowohl generelle Probleme des Peacebuilding als auch die Politik Rußlands in diesem Bereich thematisiert. (BIOst-Mrk)

Globalization has brought about the collapse of the bipolar system of international relations, which was the foundation of the structure of global security based on the technological means of mass production, which predominated at that time. The change from the mass to the flexible way of production has made it necessary to build a new system of global security on the technological resources of flexible production and the political implications of globalization. There are many indications that it was just this new system of global security that began to take shape the day the first NATO bomb fell on Serbia, which means that it came into being: in South- Eastern Europe i.e. in the region that at the beginning of the 20th century ignited the fuse of the world wars and which would, if not for this intervention, still pose a threat. The intervention, a novelty in the postwar international relations, and which consequently brought up a plethora of questions, paved the way to the realization of the project Europe for the 21th century. That project, based on adjusting international relations to globalization, whose outlines are becoming visible in the region of South- Eastern Europe, is in Croatia's interest, and is the major guarantor of the preservation of its independence and sovereignty. (SOI : PM: S. 33)

In this paper, the author deals with some institutional and structural elements of the emerging European post-cold war security environment. In the early 1990s, at the level of institutionalization of European security, a plethora of institutions came into being whose purpose has been to gradually incorporate the former communist states into an integral security structure. Also, international security was formalized in international organizations covering Europe. Thus one of the key challenges to the European security system has been the need for melding its central components into a consistent system. The author also describes some current processes and developments within the European security setting that will shape the European security structure in the future as well. This setting has been and will undoubtedly be affected by various international (regional and global) and national factors in the European economic, political, and security space as well as by the joint efforts of European states (their leaders) and international security organizations to provide common security in Europe. The author concludes that the European international system today includes many organizations and institutions that, with an appropriate division of labour and cooperation, may help set up a common and integral European security system which would efficiently ensure the security of individual states as well as the security of entire Europe. (SOI : S. 55)

International peacebuilding can improve the prospects that a civil war will be resolved. Although peacebuilding strategies must be designed to address particular conflicts, broad parameters that fit most conflicts can be identified. Strategies should address the local roots of hostility, the local capacities for change, and the (net) specific degree of international commitment available to assist sustainable peace. One can conceive of these as the three dimensions of a triangle whose area is the "political space" - or effective capacity - for building peace. We test these propositions with an extensive data set of 124 post-World War II civil wars and find that multilateral, United Nations peace operations make a positive difference. UN peacekeeping is positively correlated with democratization processes after civil war, and multilateral enforcement operations are usually successful in ending the violence. Our study provides broad guidelines for designing the appropriate peacebuilding strategy, given the mix of hostility, local capacities, and international capacities. (American Political Science Review / FUB)

We use cluster analysis to develop a model of political change in the Levant as reflected in the World Event Interaction Survey coded event data generated from Reuters between 1979 and 1998. A new statistical algorithm that uses the correlation between dyadic behaviors at two times identifies clusters of political activity. The transition to a new cluster occurs when a point is closer in distance to subsequent points than to preceding ones. These clusters begin to "stretch" before breaking apart, which serves as an early warning indicator. The clusters correspond well with phases of political behavior identified a priori. A Monte Carlo analysis shows that the clustering and early warning measures are not random; they perform very differently in simulated data sets with similar statistical characteristics. Our study demonstrates that the statistical analysis of newswire reports can yield systematic early warning indicators, and it provides empirical support for the theoretical concept of distinct behavioral phases in political activity. (American Political Science Review / FUB)