CAN EXTRINSIC UNCERTAINTY ("ANIMAL SPIRITS," "MARKET PSYCHOLOGY," "SUNSPOTS,"...) PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN RATIONAL EXPECTATIONS EQUILIBRIUM MODELS? WE ESTABLISH THAT EXTRINSIC UNCERTAINTY CANNOT MATTER IN THE STATIC ARROW-DEBREU ECONOMY WITH COMPLETE MARKETS. BUT WE ALSO ESTABLISH THAT EXTRINSIC UNCERTAINTY CAN MATTER IN THE OVERLAPPING-GENERATIONS ECONOMY WITH COMPLETE MARKETS BUT WHERE MARKET PARTICIPATION IS LIMITED TO THOSE CONSUMERS ALIVE WHEN THE MARKETS ARE OPEN. EQUILIBRIUM ALLOCATIONS IN WHICH EXTRINSIC UNCERTAINTY PLAYS NO ROLE ARE PARETO OPTIMAL IN THE TRADITIONAL SENSE. EQUILIBRIUM ALLOCATIONS IN WHICH EXTRINSIC UNCERTAINTY DOES PLAY A ROLE ARE PARETO OPTIMAL IN A (WEAKER) SENSE WHICH IS APPROPRIATE TO DYNAMIC ANALYSIS.
This book details the preparation of USAGE-TERM, a computable general equilibrium model that provides regional economic detail in the USA. The model can represent either congressional district or state level economic activity. The latter may include a top-down representation of county activity. Interest in USAGE-TERM is growing among government departments. It is a practical tool, which may enhance analysis of productivity growth and innovation, adverse events such as drought or civil disruption and the dynamic economic impacts of major projects. Economic analysts and policy makers care about regions. Some regions suffer growing pains, as supporting infrastructure and services struggle to cope with population growth. Soaring house prices and rentals may lower affordability for many. Other regions suffer ongoing decline due to structural change. Regional economic fluctuations are often far more dramatic than national fluctuations.
The research problem investigates the application of the concept of local urban centers (LUCs) in transforming post-industrial cities into sustainable cities. The subject of the study is Katowice, undergoing a transition towards modern services, while also grappling with an industrial legacy that results in an imbalance of development processes. The idea of LUCs, developed in relation to existing and new district train stations, based on the concept of the 15-minute city, was proposed by the authors within the Katowice development strategy and further tested within the Urban&Business Lab workshops. The research showed, that although in a model approach, service concentration points and public transport nodes should be closely linked, in the existing conditions of Katowice, they almost always deviate from the ideal model. Nevertheless, in each of the cases analyzed, elements of functions and spaces can be observed that have the potential which have the potential to foster LUCs.
The sovereign debt crisis originating in the eurozone immediately after the eruption of the global financial crash represents a significant challenge not only for the European but also for the world economy. Overcoming it will contribute to creating the conditions for sustained global economic recovery and also provide a testing ground for our capabilities to control the dangers surrounding the globalisation process which is unfolding over the recent decades. The integration of markets in products and finance, and less so in services, coupled with enormous technological progress in communications and transport diffused growth to regions and continents that, during the last centuries, had been left behind the dramatic rise in living standards witnessed in Europe, North America and Japan since the Industrial Revolution. The opening up of markets led to more efficient use of global resources allowing productivity to grow while billions of people transgressed poverty lines and joined the modern world. The downside of this process is that national control over economic policy has been significantly diminished, even vanished for small economies, while intricate problems emerged for international economic governance. These problems were brought to the fore during the recent crisis at the global and eurozone level. As markets integrate and systems converge, controlling imbalances in either the real economy or the financial sector becomes increasingly difficult since it requires much more advanced policy cooperation than allowed for in institutional set-ups corresponding to nation-centred economic models. The extent of the changes that are needed will become clearer as we review the origins of the present crisis. At the global level the huge current account imbalances that have been built up over the last decades produced an unusual pattern of savings flows. Poor countries, chiefly China, have been financing rich ones, such as the United States. This pattern reflects the fact that emerging countries have had large current account surpluses, whereas developed economies have accumulated sizeable deficits. The imbalances led capital to flow 'the wrong way' from the developing to the advanced economies, destabilising the financial system and thus creating the conditions for the economic crisis.
El estudio de la Economía de los países es interesante, pues contribuye al conocimiento del comportamiento de los fenómenos económicos y sociales y al impacto que tiene sus resultados en los diversos sectores de la economía de cualquier país. Esta investigación pretende hacer un estudio de la Economía de Cuba y Ecuador, dos países que son latinoamericanos pero que sus contextos han transitado de manera muy diferentes en la historia del pensamiento económico. Para el estudio, se ha empleado una metodología descriptiva-explicativa a partir del comportamiento de los fenómenos políticos-económicos de ambos países, sustentado en un análisis documental que corrobora cada uno de los aspectos tratados en la investigación. El enfoque de investigación en esencialmente cualitativo, pues profundiza en los análisis de los autores a través del análisis, percepción e interpretación de los fenómenos tratados. El objetivo general, se centra en Identificar los Modelos Económicos que han contribuido al desarrollo económico de Ecuador y Cuba. ; The study of the Economics of the countries is interesting, since it contributes to the knowledge of the behavior of economic and social phenomena and the impact that their results have on the various sectors of the economy of any country. This research intends to make a study of the Economy of Cuba and Ecuador, two countries that are Latin American but that their contexts have traveled of very different way in the history of the economic thought. For the study, a descriptive-explanatory methodology has been used based on the behavior of the political-economic phenomena of both countries, based on a documentary analysis that corroborates each one of the aspects treated in the research. The research focus is essentially qualitative, as it deepens the analysis of the authors through the analysis, perception and interpretation of the phenomena treated. The general objective is to identify the economic models that have contributed to the economic development of Ecuador and Cuba.
Авторы утверждают, что ныне происходит не обычный кризис, а крах мирового экономического порядка. Для маскировки этого процесса используются фальшивые измерители ВНП. Ликвидация «золотого стандарта» ведет не только к накачиванию взрывающихся «мыльных пузырей» банков, корпораций, фирм, но и в будущем -взрыву «мыльных пузырей» государств. ; The financial & economy crisis is a popular topic of modern economic studies, and although most economists argue the crisis is over, very authoritative representatives of the banking elite (for example, M. King) suppose the next generation (possibly more than one) will live under crisis. In this article, we show there is not an ordinary crisis, but the collapse of the world economic order. To disguise this process ones use fake GNP data. Today, many Russian and foreign scientists are actively engaged in winding "phony" GDP, false floating rates, numerous indicators and ratings. But these, at first glance, purely theoretical ''fun'' have catastrophic consequences, leading to global geopolitical fault. 'Gold standard' elimination has led to an unlimited issue of dollars, euros, etc., which are nothing more than a simple colored rag-money. It leads to pumping of exploding 'bubbles-banks', 'bubbles-corporations', 'bubbles-firms'. 'Bubbles-states' are the next in turn. Both unscientific measurements of the economic growth dynamics and 'gold standard' elimination are not only distort the real situation in the world economy, but also are a powerful tool of political struggle. Inculcation of "democracy" in Iraq, Libya, Syria, support for fascism in Ukraine, the destruction of economic science in Russia are links in the same chain, that are masked by unscientific liberal economic model. In this article, we show, it is done to hide the parasitic nature of the United States, whose very existence depends on the success of the monetarist approach infiltration into the of regions rich in natural resources. Country kept afloat by huge profit from the dollars that simulate gold. Therefore, elimination of current situation is unacceptable for the U.S. But it leads the world economy to the inevitable crash, compared to which all past crises and depressions will seem childish prank.
PurposeThe study focuses on examining the impact of the supply shock on the Indian macroeconomic variables during the COVID-19 period.Design/methodology/approachTime-varying factor augmented vector autoregressive model has been employed to study the asymmetry in transmission of supply shock on Indian economy during pre- and post-COVID-19 times.FindingsThe authors find that with supply shock, retail food inflation outpaced in COVID-19 times. Production levels reported by IIP fell to abysmally low levels in the post-COVID-19 times when the economy stalled. The liquidity stimulus provided by the central bank led to the negative response of policy rates to the supply shocks during the COVID-19 times.Originality/valueThe study stands novel in examining the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on Indian economy through the lenses of asymmetric transmission of supply shock during pre- and post-COVID-19 times.
Growing fiscal deficit and public debt has been a cause of concern for the government, economists and the policymakers of India since long. Various studies have tried to test the sustainability issue of India's fiscal policies applying various methodologies time to time. However, the results obtained are ambiguous. Such ambiguity might emerge because of the various methodologies adopted for the respective studies. In view of this, the current study attempts to revisit the sustainability issue of India's fiscal deficit using up-to-date time series methodologies on the annual data sets ranging from the time period 1981 to 2019. Apart from this, the study also tries to verify the results using a model based on fiscal reaction function (FRF) developed by Henning Bohn. The study found the fiscal deficit of India to be sustainable.JEL Classification: H61, H62, H63, H68
Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effects of Chinese and non-Chinese import penetration on the inter-industry wage premium, and how such effects vary according to the unskilled-labor intensity of the industry and to the implementation of the Nova Matriz Economica policy in 2008.
Design/methodology/approach The paper empirically examines the effects of the Chinese and non-Chinese import penetration on the wage premium using a linear instrumental variables model and data from Brazilian household surveys and censuses.
Findings The estimates show the Chinese import penetration positively affecting the wage premium in unskilled-labor intensive. And the implementation of the new macroeconomic policy strengthened this effect.
Originality/value To the best of the author's knowledge, this is the first paper to study the effects of Chinese and non-Chinese import penetration on the inter-industry wage premium.
The implementation of the Forest Rights Act (FRA), 2006 has been extended to the protected areas (PAs) with a view to promote livelihoods of socially and economically vulnerable forest dwellers and thereby encouraging their participation in the forest management. In this context, this study examines the relationship between ecosystem services and human well-being, and how the recognition of forest rights under FRA has influenced this relationship by taking a case study of Odisha. By using primary data collected from 221 sample households located inside the Lakhari Valley Wildlife Sanctuary of Odisha, the article explains the levels of household well-being and their attitude towards conservation after provision of land rights under the FRA. The study also constructs multidimensional poverty index (MPI) and ecosystem conservation index (ECI) and tests their relationship by a simultaneous probit model. JEL Classification: Q01, Q15, Q23, Q28
Abstract. Assets Local Government has various characteristics and is in a geographical position scattered, so spatial approach in asset management becomes very important. Certain types of assets are sensitive to space variables, ie land and building assets. Both types of these assets have a very significant value compared to other assets, and contain enormous economic potential. The problems that arise with so many local governments located in the province of South Sumatra is planning the utilization of assets that have not been optimal because the assets owned by the government of South Sumatra Province are numerous and spread geographically in several districts and municipalities. The solution of the problems raised is by utilizing GIS (Geographic Information System) for mapping the assets of the region. Maps will be built using ArcGis 10 and will be implemented in online webgis. The method in this research using descriptive method and Spiral Model as system development method. Spiral Model is a combination of the idea of repetitive development (prototyping) with a systematic, controlled system model waterfall (waterfall). Spiral models also explicitly include risk management in software development.Keywords: Government Assets, GIS (Geographic Information System), Spiral ModelAbstrak. Aset Pemerintah Daerah memiliki beragam karakteristik serta berada dalam posisi geografis yang tersebar, sehingga pendekatan keruangan (spatial) dalam pengelolaan aset menjadi sangat penting. Beberapa jenis aset tertentu bersifat sensitif terhadap variabel ruang, yaitu aset tanah (land) dan bangunan. Kedua jenis aset ini memiliki nilai yang sangat signifikan dibandingkan aset-aset lainnya, serta mengandung potensi ekonomis yang sangat besar. Adapun permasalahan yang timbul dengan begitu banyak pemerintah daerah yang berada diwilayah Provinsi Sumatera Selatan adalah perencanaan pemanfaatan aset yang belum optimal karena aset yang dimiliki pemerintah Provinsi Sumatera Selatan jumlahnya banyak dan tersebar secara geografis di beberapa wilayah Kabupaten dan Kota. Adapun solusi dari permasalahan yang dimunculkan yaitu dengan memanfaatkan GIS (Geographic Information System) untuk pemetaan aset daerah. Peta akan dibangun menggunakan ArcGis 10 dan akan di implementasikan dalam webgis online. Metode pada penelitian ini menggunakan metode deskriptif serta Spiral Model sebagai metode pengembangan sistem. Spiral Model merupakan penggabungan ide pengembangan berulang (prototyping) dengan, aspek sistematis terkendali model air terjun (waterfall). Model spiral juga secara eksplisit meliputi manajemen resiko dalam pengembangan perangkat lunak.Kata Kunci: Aset Pemerintah, GIS (Geographic Information System), Spiral Model
In economics as in anthropology, old artifacts spur continuing debates. A case in point is Knut Wicksell's 1898 analysis of the cumulative process of price inflation in pure credit, cashless economies. Some economists view Wicksell's model as a milestone in the evolution of quantity-theoretic monetary analysis inasmuch as it constitutes the seminal rigorous explanation of how loan-created stocks of bank money translate interest rate differentials into price level changes. Others, however, dispute this point and instead argue that money plays no role in determining price level changes in Wicksell's model.
The gravity model is a workhorse tool that has been widely used in international trade. However, one empirical question that frequently arises is related to the conceptualization and measurement of distance. To overcome this limitation, our study proposes an index of distance based on multivariate statistical analysis. Specifically, we build our index using Factorial Analysis for Mixed Data. For robustness check, we use Principal Component Analysis. Both techniques summarize in one factor information related to geographical, cultural, political and economic variables that might affect international trade between countries. We use this index as proxy of distance, and Gross Domestic Product as proxy of mass, and we run some panel data exercises between 1995 and 2000 for 10 Latin American economies. Estimations indicate that the sign of the load factors in Factor Analysis for Mixed Data are intuitively plausible, and that panel data exercises give sensible robust outcomes. ; The gravity model is a workhorse tool that has been widely used in international trade. However, one empirical question that frequently arises is related to the conceptualization and measurement of distance. To overcome this limitation, our study proposes an index of distance based on multivariate statistical analysis. Specifically, we build our index using Factorial Analysis for Mixed Data. For robustness check, we use Principal Component Analysis. Both techniques summarize in one factor information related to geographical, cultural, political and economic variables that might affect international trade between countries. We use this index as proxy of distance, and Gross Domestic Product as proxy of mass, and we run some panel data exercises between 1995 and 2000 for 10 Latin American economies. Estimations indicate that the sign of the load factors in Factor Analysis for Mixed Data are intuitively plausible, and that panel data exercises give sensible robust outcomes.
The thesis studies one of the main problems in Spain: mass unemployment. It is not a short-term problem, but a structural feature of the Spanish socio-economic system since at least the end of the 1970s, which remains unresolved. We argue that the fundamental cause of this mass unemployment lies in the deficient Spanish productive system and its peripheral integration into European and global capitalism. This is most apparent in the collapse of the Francoist economic regime and the crisis of the democratic Transition, when the unemployment rate shot up to 21%. This legacy endures, chiefly, because the mentioned causes persist, which in addition impose the "external constraint" on economic growth and employment. The process is as follows: 1) when the economy grows and generates employment, imports increase faster than imports and far exceed them; 2) typically, the deficit has to be financed by some sort of foreign indebtedness, until 3) the capacity to pay these liabilities is called into question and difficulties in accessing external finance arise. All of this forces or compounds a more or less traumatic contraction of domestic demand to bring external deficits down to the level for which they can obtain foreign finance. So it happened in the developments leading to the Stabilisation Plan (1959) and through the crisis of the democratic Transition (1977-1985), the accelerated integration into the European Union (1986-1993) and the millennial boom leading to the current crisis. Besides, international trade relations also impact domestic employment when foreign finance does not falter. Between 1995 and 2007, the number of hours worked in Spain increased by 44%. Out of this rise, we prove that the vast majority (41.3 percentage points) corresponds to "Domestic Effects" and 2.7 to "Foreign Effects". Therefore, Spanish employment benefited from international trade despite the huge trade deficits. Nonetheless, we also show that these trade relations, the Spanish productive model and the economic growth rates above ...
