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The article of record as published may be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/sys ; This paper presents a realistic and practical approach to quantitatively assess the risk-reduction capabilities of military counterterrorism systems in terms of damage cost and casualty figures. The comparison of alternatives is thereby based on absolute quantities rather than an aggregated utility or value provided by multicriteria decision analysis methods. The key elements of the approach are (1) the use of decision-attack event trees for modeling and analyzing scenarios, (2) a portfolio model approach for analyzing multiple threats, and (3) the quantitative probabilistic risk assessment matrix for communicating the results. Decision-attack event trees are especially appropriate for modeling and analyzing terrorist attacks where the sequence of events and outcomes are time-sensitive. The actions of the attackers and the defenders are modeled as decisions and the outcomes are modeled as probabilistic events. The quantitative probabilistic risk assessment matrix provides information about the range of the possible outcomes while retaining the simplicity of the classic safety risk assessment matrix based on Mil-Std-882D. It therefore provides a simple and reliable tool for comparing alternatives on the basis of risk including confidence levels rather than single point estimates. This additional valuable information requires minimal additional effort. The proposed approach is illustrated using a simplified but realistic model of a destroyer operating in inland restricted waters. The complex problem of choosing a robust counterterrorism protection system against multiple terrorist threats is analyzed by introducing a surrogate multi-threat portfolio. The associated risk profile provides a practical approach for assessing the robustness of different counterterrorism systems against plausible terrorist threats. The paper documents the analysis for a hypothetical case of three potential threats. ; This work was performed as part of the Naval Postgraduate School institutionally funded research.

Foreword David D. McKiernan, General (Retired), U.S. Army Chapter One: Introduction: The Threat Finance Cell J. Edward Conway Chapter Two: Intelligence Analysis: An Operator's Perspective Colonel Clayton O. Sheffield, U.S. Army Chapter Three: Where Counterinsurgency Meets Counter Threat Finance Brian A. Gordon Chapter Four: From People to Processes: Collecting Intelligence That Matters David M. Blum & Brian A. Gordon Chapter Five: Al-Qa'ida in Iraq's Financial Ledgers Benjamin Bahney and Howard J. Shatz Chapter Six: Cost Accounting: Auditing the Taliban in Helmand Province, Afghanistan Brian A

Terrorism in East Africa has remained a concern of the United States since 1998, when al Qaeda bombed U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania. As part of its efforts to address this threat, State launched PREACT in 2009 as a program for long-term engagement and capacity building in East Africa. PREACT-which focuses on countering terrorist threats, including al Shabaab, an al Qaeda affiliate based in Somalia-is managed by State's Bureau of African Affairs and provides assistance in a region composed of 12 partner countries. This book examines PREACT, including the role it plays in U.S. counterterr

The killer beside you -- Baker's boy -- Triple A -- Recruits -- Ali's evolution -- Incident on the tube -- Bang/fizz -- The Rosewater solution -- Glimmers -- The dilemma -- Rendezvous in Lloyd Park -- Pattern of life -- Wedding videos -- Probe -- "Today's date is September 12, 2001" -- Sarwar's hole -- Transatlantic tensions -- Skin infection -- Our citizens, our planes -- It fell out of my pocket -- The railway crossing -- Fellowship is life -- Scramble -- The system worked? -- Rashid Rauf's second chance -- The twisting road -- A fine balance.

In Blood Year, David Kilcullen provides a wide-angle view of the current situation in the Middle East and analyzes how America and the West ended up in such dire circumstances. Focusing on the events of 2014--a year of massacres and beheadings, fallen cities and collapsing states--as a potential turning point in modern world history, this is an essential read for anyone interested in understanding not only why the region that the U.S. invaded a dozen years ago has collapsed into utter chaos, but also what it can do to alleviate the grim situation.

Americans must choose what role they want to play in the world. Following World War II, American leaders realized that U.S. leadership, strength, and engagement on the international stage was the best means to secure freedom, prosperity, and security at home. Now, after years of painful conflicts in the Middle East, some Americans are tempted to restrain American power abroad—infatuated with the superficially appealing hope that if the U.S. withdraws, threats will subside and not follow Americans home. History and current threats, however, warn against such an approach. Washington should clearly define its global and regional interests and identify the leading threats to those interests. Such an analysis reveals a daunting array of challenges. China and Russia seek to undermine and displace the United States and create an international system more accommodating to might-makes-right authoritarianism. The Islamic Republic of Iran continues to export terrorism and inch toward nuclear weapons capability. Pyongyang threatens the American homeland with potentially nuclear-tipped intercontinental ballistic missiles. And terrorist organizations continue to seek opportunities to kill Americans and our allies. In light of these threats, U.S. military forward defense alongside allies and partners represents the best way to secure American interests.