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Government formation in multiparty systems requires election winners to strike deals to form a coalition government. Do voters respond and how do they respond to coalition government deals? This paper examines the short-term consequences of coalition government formation on voters in European democracies relying on survey panel data and original content analysis of coalition agreements. It tests theoretical expectations that deal with both the actual and perceived ideological shifts parties make when joining coalition deals as well as the effect of a much simpler heuristic cue based on preferences. The findings indicate that coalition deals have consequences on party preferences, but voter perceptions play a much stronger effect than the actual content of coalition deals. These results have important implications for our understanding of public opinion and provide important insights into the current difficulties and challenges of government formation and representative democracy.

I discuss instances where a committee wants to deviate from the simple majority rule by adopting an alternative voting scheme for two consecutive binary ballots. The alternative voting rule, called Minority Voting as an Exception (MVE), works as follows: In the first ballot a b-majority rule is used, where b < 1/2 is equal to the minority fraction that favors some project, say project 1. This allows the minority to induce the adoption of project 1. After the first ballot all voting winners, i.e. the minority of project winners, lose their voting rights for the upcoming second ballot, where the simple majority rule is used. Hence, MVE may benefit both project losers and winners and may thus be unanimously accepted. The analysis of this short-term deviation is presented with a potential application in the sphere of communal politics.

One key focus of the on-going debate on the integration of international financial markets have been measures to lengthen the maturity of foreign debt, as short-term debt is typically considered to be highly volatile. The transition economies of Central and Eastern Europe are one group of countries for which policy lessons seem particularly urgent. Not only have these countries liberalized their capital accounts to a quite substantial degree already, membership in the European Union also implies that remaining controls to the free flow of capital will have to be abolished. This paper assesses the experience of the transition economies with liberalizing short-term capital flows, and it analyzes factors affecting the share of short-term capital. ; Da eine Verschuldung in kurzfristiger Form oft als sehr volatil angesehen wird, betrifft ein wichtiger Aspekt der gegenwärtigen Diskussion über die Integration der internationalen Finanzmärkte die Frage, wie man die Fristigkeit der Auslandsverschuldung verlängern kann. Für die Transformationsländer Zentral- und Osteuropa scheinen politische Lehren in dieser Beziehung besonders wichtig. Diese Länder haben ihren Kapitalverkehr schon zu einem großen Teil liberalisiert und die künftige Mitgliedschaft in der EU verlangt das Ende der noch bestehenden Kontrollen. Dieses Papier betrachtet die Erfahrungen der Transformationsländer bei der Liberalisierung des kurzfristigen Kapitalölverkehrs und analysiert die Faktoren, die den Anteil der kurzfristigen Verschuldung beeinflussen.

Social work graduate students doing short-term family therapy had most success in alleviating the problems of the identified patient and preventing a new patient's being singled out; had slightly less success in helping to improve the marital dyad; and tended to be more effective with certain types of families.

This paper examines short-term price reactions after one-day abnormal price changes and whether they create exploitable profit opportunities in various financial markets. A t-test confirms the presence of overreactions and also suggests that there is an "inertia anomaly", i.e. after an overreaction day prices tend to move in the same direction for some time. A trading robot approach is then used to test two trading strategies aimed at exploiting the detected anomalies to make abnormal profits. The results suggest that a strategy based on counter-movements after overreactions does not generate profits in the FOREX and the commodity markets, but it is profitable in the case of the US stock market. By contrast, a strategy exploiting the "inertia anomaly" produces profits in the case of the FOREX and the commodity markets, but not in the case of the US stock market.

One key focus of the on-going debate on the integration of international financial markets have been measures to lengthen the maturity of foreign debt, as short-term debt is typically considered to be highly volatile. The transition economies of Central and Eastern Europe are one group of countries for which policy lessons seem particularly urgent. Not only have these countries liberalized their capital accounts to a quite substantial degree already, membership in the European Union also implies that remaining controls to the free flow of capital will have to be abolished. This paper assesses the experience of the transition economies with liberalizing short-term capital flows, and it analyzes factors affecting the share of short-term capital.

In power system operation and planning, the accuracy of short-term power load forecasting is very important. Because of its powerful data processing and modeling ability, deep neural network has become an effective tool to accurately predict short-term power load. In this study, a short-term power load prediction model based on deep neural network is designed, which adopts deep long short-term memory and threshold period unit model, and combines Boosting algorithm for model fusion. The results show that the average absolute percentage error of the model fused by Boosting algorithm is 0.07%, which is 1.02% lower than the average weight method and 0.59% lower than the reciprocal error method. Boosting fusion model can effectively reduce the overall prediction error and maintain high stability of prediction error at peak, plateau and time sampling points, so as to achieve good prediction effect. Specifically, the MAPE of the model fused using Boosting algorithm is 0.07% (95% confidence), which is 1.14% higher than the average weight method and 0.79% higher than the reciprocal error method. The design of short-term power load forecasting model based on deep neural network can provide more accurate prediction for power system operation and planning, and help to improve the operation efficiency and reliability of power system. At the same time, the design and application of this model also provide a new idea and method for the application of deep learning in power system. The introduction of Boosting algorithm further improves the prediction accuracy and stability of the model, which is a major innovation in model design.

The objective of this paper is to discover which of three forecasting modes used to select parameters for four short‐term forecasting techniques minimizes errors. The study also examines whether the amount of historical data used to find parameters contributes to forecasting success. The results show the traditional one‐ahead search routine works well in some, but not all, forecasting situations. Also, forecasting errors appear to decline when more historical data are included in the parameter search.

One key focus of the on-going debate on the integration of international financial markets have been measures to lengthen the maturity of foreign debt, as short-term debt is typically considered to be highly volatile. The transition economies of Central and Eastern Europe are one group of countries for which policy lessons seem particularly urgent. Not only have these countries liberalized their capital accounts to a quite substantial degree already, membership in the European Union also implies that remaining controls to the free flow of capital will have to be abolished. This paper assesses the experience of the transition economies with liberalizing short-term capital flows, and it analyzes factors affecting the share of short-term capital.

We implement a modified version of DebtRank to recursively measure the contagion effects caused by the default of a selected financial institution. In our case contagion is a liquidity issue, measured as the decrease in financial institutions' short-term liquidity position across the Colombian interbank network. We find that contagion negative effects are concentrated in a few financial institutions. However, as most of their impact is conditional on the occurrence of unlikely major widespread illiquidity events, and due to the subsidiary contribution of the interbank market to the local money market, their overall systemic importance is still to be confirmed.