Suchergebnisse

This PhD dissertation investigates the linkages between prison, reentry and recidivism. Eachof the four chapters contributes to the growing field of the economics of crime, applying a series of econometric methods on French data to answer highly policy-relevant questions.Chapter 1 explores the dynamics of the risk of recidivism after prison release. This article is the first to document the shape of the hazard of recidivism over time in France (a fastlydiminishing function) and to explore the key individual characteristics explaining the level and dynamic of this risk over time.Chapter 2 investigates the causal effect of sentence reductions on recidivism. This article is the first to explicitely account for the key mediating role of anticipations and adaptation by prisoners. By exploiting the French collective pardon of July 1996 as a natural experiment, the article finds strong evidence supporting the importance of the concrete design of sentence reductions.Chapter 3 offers the first evaluation of the causal effects of a major penal policy in France, the introduction of Electronic Monitoring (EM) as an alternative to short prison sentences. Using the staged rollout of EM across courts and over time, the paper finds evidence of significant beneficial effects of EM on recidivism, compared to incarceration.Finally, Chapter 4 measures the deterrent effect of fast versus slower incarceration on future crime. This article is the first to estimate the large beneficial impact of using fast-track procedures, instead of longer procedures, on recidivism after release. ; Cette thèse de doctorat étudie les liens entre prison, réinsertion et récidive. Chacun des quatre chapitres contribue au champ croissant de l'´economie du crime, en appliquant diverses méthodes économétriques sur des données françaises pour répondre à des questions essentielles pour les politiques publiques.Le Chapitre 1 explore la dynamique du risque de récidive après la sortie de prison. Cet article est le premier à documenter la forme du hasard de récidive dans le temps en France (une fonction rapidement décroissante) et `a explorer les déterminants individuels majeurs qui expliquent le niveau et la dynamique des risques dans le temps.Le Chapitre 2 étudie l'effet causal des réductions de peine sur la récidive. Cet article est le premier à tenir explicitement compte du rôle essentiel des anticipations et de l'adaptation des détenus. En exploitant la grâce collective française de Juillet 1996 comme une expérience naturelle, les résultats soutiennent l'importance du design concret des réductions de peine.Le Chapitre 3 propose la première évaluation des effets causaux d'une politique pénale majeure en France, l'introduction du Placement sous Surveillance Électronique (PSE) comme alternative aux courtes peines de prison fermes. En utilisant la mise en place progressive du PSE dans les tribunaux français, l'article trouve des effets significatifs bénéfiques du PSE sur la récidive, par rapport à l'incarcération.Enfin, le Chapitre 4 mesure l'effet dissuasif d'une incarcération plus ou moins rapide sur la délinquance future. Cet article est le premier à estimer les effets très bénéfiques de recourir à des procédures rapides pour prévenir la récidive après la libération.

This PhD dissertation investigates the linkages between prison, reentry and recidivism. Eachof the four chapters contributes to the growing field of the economics of crime, applying a series of econometric methods on French data to answer highly policy-relevant questions.Chapter 1 explores the dynamics of the risk of recidivism after prison release. This article is the first to document the shape of the hazard of recidivism over time in France (a fastlydiminishing function) and to explore the key individual characteristics explaining the level and dynamic of this risk over time.Chapter 2 investigates the causal effect of sentence reductions on recidivism. This article is the first to explicitely account for the key mediating role of anticipations and adaptation by prisoners. By exploiting the French collective pardon of July 1996 as a natural experiment, the article finds strong evidence supporting the importance of the concrete design of sentence reductions.Chapter 3 offers the first evaluation of the causal effects of a major penal policy in France, the introduction of Electronic Monitoring (EM) as an alternative to short prison sentences. Using the staged rollout of EM across courts and over time, the paper finds evidence of significant beneficial effects of EM on recidivism, compared to incarceration.Finally, Chapter 4 measures the deterrent effect of fast versus slower incarceration on future crime. This article is the first to estimate the large beneficial impact of using fast-track procedures, instead of longer procedures, on recidivism after release. ; Cette thèse de doctorat étudie les liens entre prison, réinsertion et récidive. Chacun des quatre chapitres contribue au champ croissant de l'´economie du crime, en appliquant diverses méthodes économétriques sur des données françaises pour répondre à des questions essentielles pour les politiques publiques.Le Chapitre 1 explore la dynamique du risque de récidive après la sortie de prison. Cet article est le premier à documenter la forme du hasard de récidive dans le temps en France (une fonction rapidement décroissante) et `a explorer les déterminants individuels majeurs qui expliquent le niveau et la dynamique des risques dans le temps.Le Chapitre 2 étudie l'effet causal des réductions de peine sur la récidive. Cet article est le premier à tenir explicitement compte du rôle essentiel des anticipations et de l'adaptation des détenus. En exploitant la grâce collective française de Juillet 1996 comme une expérience naturelle, les résultats soutiennent l'importance du design concret des réductions de peine.Le Chapitre 3 propose la première évaluation des effets causaux d'une politique pénale majeure en France, l'introduction du Placement sous Surveillance Électronique (PSE) comme alternative aux courtes peines de prison fermes. En utilisant la mise en place progressive du PSE dans les tribunaux français, l'article trouve des effets significatifs bénéfiques du PSE sur la récidive, par rapport à l'incarcération.Enfin, le Chapitre 4 mesure l'effet dissuasif d'une incarcération plus ou moins rapide sur la délinquance future. Cet article est le premier à estimer les effets très bénéfiques de recourir à des procédures rapides pour prévenir la récidive après la libération.

This article describes the development and initial validation of the Juvenile Sexual Offense Recidivism Risk Assessment Tool–II (JSORRAT-II). Potential predictor variables were extracted from case file information for an exhaustive sample of 636 juveniles in Utah who sexually offended between 1990 and 1992. Simultaneous and hierarchical logistic regression analyses were used to identify the group of variables that was most predictive of subsequent juvenile sexual recidivism. A simple categorical scoring system was applied to these variables without meaningful loss of accuracy in the development sample for any sexual (area under the curve [AUC] = .89) and sexually violent (AUC = .89) juvenile recidivism. The JSORRAT-II was cross-validated on an exhaustive sample of 566 juveniles who had sexually offended in Utah in 1996 and 1997. Reliability of scoring the tool across five coders was quite high (intraclass correlation coefficient [ICC] = .96). Relative to the development sample, however, there was considerable shrinkage in the indices of predictive accuracy for any sexual (AUC = .65) and sexually violent (AUC = .65) juvenile recidivism. The reduced level of accuracy was not explained by severity of the index sexual offense, time at risk, or missing data. Capitalization on chance and other explanations for the possible reduction in predictive accuracy are explored, and potential uses and limitations of the tool are discussed.

Data from the Estimate of Risk of Adolescent Sexual Offense Recidivism (ERASOR; Worling & Curwen) were collected for a sample of 191 adolescent males who had offended sexually. Adolescents were aged 12 to 19 years ( M = 15.34; SD = 1.53) at the time of their participation in a comprehensive assessment. The ERASOR was completed by 1 of 22 clinicians immediately following each assessment. Forty-five adolescents were independently rated by pairs of clinicians, and significant interrater agreement was found for the ERASOR risk factors, the clinical judgment ratings ( low, moderate, or high), and a total score. Recidivism data (criminal charges) were subsequently collected from three sources that spanned a follow-up period between 0.1 and 7.9 years ( M = 3.66; SD = 2.08). Overall, 9.4% (18 of 191) of the adolescents were charged with a subsequent sexual offense over this time period. A shorter follow-up interval of up to 2.5 years ( M = 1.4; SD = 0.71) was also examined. Recidivism data for the shorter follow-up interval were available for a subgroup of 70 adolescents, with a comparable recidivism rate of 8.6% (6 of 70). Clinical judgment ratings, the total score, and the sum of risk factors rated as present were significantly predictive of sexual reoffending for the short follow-up period. The total score and the sum of risk factors were predictive of sexual reoffending over the entire follow-up interval. These results add to the emerging research supporting the reliability and validity of structured risk assessment tools for adolescent sexual recidivism.

This study uses survival analysis to test propositions from specific deterrence theory. It examines the effect of a custodial sentence on time until rearrest, generally and under various conditions. Results suggest that for those with few ties to conventional society and for first‐time arrestees, a sentence of incarceration increases the probability of rearrest. However, for arrestees with few ties and for experienced offenders, longer incarceration predicts longer time until rearrest.

We studied a sample of reentering parolees in California in 2005–2006 to examine whether the social structural context of the census tract, as well as nearby tracts, along with the relative physical closeness of social service providers affects serious recidivism resulting in imprisonment. We found that a 1 standard deviation increase in the presence of nearby social service providers (within 2 miles) decreases the likelihood of recidivating 41 percent and that this protective effect was particularly strong for African American parolees. This protective effect was diminished by overtaxed services (as proxied by potential demand). We found that higher concentrated disadvantage and social disorder (as measured by bar and liquor store capacity) in the tract increases recidivism and that higher levels of disadvantage and disorder in nearby tracts increase recidivism. A 1 standard deviation increase in the concentrated disadvantage of the focal neighborhood and the surrounding neighborhoods increases the likelihood of recidivating by 26 percent. The findings suggest that the social context to which parolees return (both in their own neighborhood and in nearby neighborhoods), as well as the geographic accessibility of social service agencies, play important roles in their successful reintegration.

Empirical actuarial risk tools are routinely used to assess the recidivism risk of adult sexual offenders. Compared with other forms of risk assessment, one advantage of actuarial risk tools is that they provide recidivism rate estimates. Previous research, however, suggests that there is considerable variability in the recidivism rates associated with the most commonly used sexual offender risk assessment tools (Static-99/R, Static-2002/R). The current study examined the extent to which the variability in the recidivism rates across 21 Static-99R studies ( N = 8,805) corresponded to the normative groups proposed by the STATIC development group (routine, treatment, high risk/high need). We found strong evidence that routine (i.e., complete) samples were, on average, less likely to reoffend with a sexual offense than offenders in the high-risk/high-need samples (i.e., those explicitly preselected on risk-relevant variables external to STATIC scales). The differences between routine/complete and high-risk/high-need samples, however, were only consistently observed for offenders with low or moderate scores; for offenders with high STATIC scores, the 5-year sexual recidivism rates for these two groups were not meaningfully different. There was only limited evidence to support treatment samples as a distinct sample type; consequently, the use of separate normative tables for treatment samples is not recommended. The current results reinforce the value of regularly updating the norms for empirical actuarial risk tools. Options are discussed on how STATIC scores could be used to inform recidivism rates estimates in applied assessments.