Suchergebnisse

The present paper studies the effect of an upward correction of the natural gas price on the Russian domestic market. Russia has the largest gas reserves in the world and currently produces around 550 billion cubic meters of gas each year. Sixty percent of the production is sold domestically at prices below long term marginal cost, for households and for industrial producers. The pricing of natural gas is currently a hot topic in Russia, as the Russian government proposes to liberalize the regulated domestic market price and decrease subsidies for natural gas products. This is claimed to fit in a policy promoting energy efficiency, increasing investments in natural gas production and bringing the natural gas price on the domestic market closer to long term cost recovery. We will approach the issue of gas pricing through taxation of intermediate and final use of natural gas for domestic industries and consumers. Considerable attention is given to economic impacts, environmental issues and social effects of gas pricing. We compare several scenarios of differential gas pricing, simulating increases in price for industrial and private consumers at different annual growth rates, with a time horizon from 2012 until 2020. Our results are based on an application of the SUSTRUS model, a novel computable general equilibrium model, which was developed in the same-named EU funded project. The SUSTRUS model belongs to the group of regional CGE models, applied to analyze policies with a strong social, economic and environmental dimension. The model is constructed as a regional model on federal level, where regions are linked by interregional trade flows, a federal government level and migration. The main data sources for the model are the public databases of Rosstat and the micro-level household data from the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS). Calibration of the model database was performed by a flexible cross-entropy minimization sub module and standard applied general equilibrium techniques. We find that deregulating natural gas pricing can lead to a significant improvement in energy efficiency, if prices are gradually increased for both consumers and industries alike. Differences in regional energy efficiency decrease, but are still significant. We show that increasing the consumer price of gas is indeed a regressive policy, but can be compensated for by the government.

Transmission of international food prices to domestic prices is essential to pursue comparative-advantage-based, sustainable agricultural production, and to ensure domestic production responds to global food scarcity or surplus. (i) International prices are opportunity costs for most price-taking developing countries and are crucial in determining an efficient distribution of domestic resources. When the long-term trend of international prices is transmitted slowly and imperfectly to domestic markets, consumers and producers make decisions based on prices that do not represent their real social costs and benefits. There is strong empirical evidence from both developing and developed countries that any large, sustained deviation of domestic prices from world prices in either direction leads to substantially sub-optimal outcomes and slows the rate of economic growth; and (ii) as international food prices reflect global scarcity or surplus, their transmission to domestic prices can help improved the global responsiveness of the food system to shocks. The recent increase in the volatility of international food prices is, therefore, a big concern. These volatile and unpredictable prices may undermine incentives for farmers to respond to high price levels with the critical increase in production needed to bring food prices down. In practical terms, farmers decide what to plant and countries deciding when to import face uncertainty in the likely distribution of world food prices and greater consequences when using past price levels and distributions to guide current decisions. This uncertainty keeps food prices high for a longer period, leading to fundamental food security risks for consumers and governments. To achieve more efficient domestic price formation, policy actions need to focus on (i) strengthening the integration of local markets with international markets (through investments in infrastructure and market-oriented policies), especially local markets that are more volatile than international markets, (ii) reducing global food price volatility, including through more discipline on trade policy, and (iii) strengthening safety nets to rapidly and cost-effectively protect the poor and vulnerable from the food price spikes.

This paper examines the price and output effects of Philippine monetary policy through its transmission channels from 1996 to 2019 using Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) models. Recursive and non-recursive identi!cation strategies are implemented to build a model that represents the small open economy of the Philippines, which is affected by exogenous shocks in oil prices and US interest rates. Impulse response functions are then compared between recursive and non-recursive models to select results that demonstrate consistency with macroeconomic theory and overall statistical signi!cance. The Local Projections method is then applied as a means of verifying the accuracy of the preferred model's results. Findings show that a contractionary shock to Philippine monetary policy has weak short-term effects on domestic output and prices. These results contribute to the literature by characterizing the strength of transmission channels 17 years after in"ation targeting was adopted as a primary component of Philippine monetary policy.

Rice, which is the staple food in Sierra Leone, is consumed on a daily basis. It is the most imperative food crop extensively grown by farmers across all ecologies in the country. Though much attention is now given to rice grain production through the small holder commercialization programme (SHCP), however, no attention has been given in investigating the limitations faced by rice producers. This paper will contribute to attempts to overcome the development challenges caused by food insecurity. The objective of this paper is thus, to analysis the relationship between rice production and the domestic retail price of rice. The study employed a log linear model in which, the quantity of rice produced is the dependent variable, quantity of rice imported, price of imported rice and price of domestic rice as explanatory variables. Findings showed that, locally produced rice is even more expensive than the imported rice per ton, and almost all the inhabitants in the capital city which hosts about 65% of the entire population of the country favor imported rice, as it is free from stones with other impurities. On the other hand, to control price and simultaneously increase rice production, the government should purchase the rice from the farmers and then sell to private retailers.

Bu çalışmada Türkiye'nin 2006:04-2020:05 dönemine ait aylık verilerinden yararlanılarak döviz kurunun yurtiçi fiyatlara geçiş etkisinin analiz edilmesi amaçlanmıştır. Bu doğrultuda değişkenlere öncelikli olarak Phillips-Perron birim kök testi yapılmış ve serilerin farklı seviyelerde durağan olduğu anlaşılmıştır. Daha sonra değişkenler arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişkinin analiz edilebilmesi için ARDL sınır testi uygulanmıştır. Analiz sonucunda değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişki olduğu bulgusuna rastlanılmıştır. En son ise değişkenler arasındaki geçiş etkisinin daha iyi anlaşılabilmesi için kısa dönemli bir analiz olan VAR analizi çalışmada uygulanmıştır. VAR analizi kapsamında ise öncelikli olarak katsayılar yorumlanırken, analiz Etki Tepki analizi ve Varyans Ayrıştırması testlerinin yapılmasıyla sonlandırılmıştır. Sonuçlar döviz kurunda yaşanan değişmelerin yurtiçi fiyatlar üzerindeki etkilerinin anlamlı olduğunu ancak döviz kurunun söz konusu değişkenler arasından en çok tüketici fiyat endeksi üzerinde etkili olduğunu ortaya koymuştur.

Rice, which is the staple food in Sierra Leone, is consumed on a daily basis. It is the most imperative food crop extensively grown by farmers across all ecologies in the country. Though much attention is now given to rice grain production through the small holder commercialization programme (SHCP), however, no attention has been given in investigating the limitations faced by rice producers. This paper will contribute to attempts to overcome the development challenges caused by food insecurity. The objective of this paper is thus, to analysis the relationship between rice production and the domestic retail price of rice. The study employed a log linear model in which, the quantity of rice produced is the dependent variable, quantity of rice imported, price of imported rice and price of domestic rice as explanatory variables. Findings showed that, locally produced rice is even more expensive than the imported rice per ton, and almost all the inhabitants in the capital city which hosts about 65% of the entire population of the country favor imported rice, as it is free from stones with other impurities. On the other hand, to control price and simultaneously increase rice production, the government should purchase the rice from the farmers and then sell to private retailers.

Aufgrund der schrittweisen Senkung der Interventionspreise und der Aussetzung von Exporterstattungen der Europäischen Union wurde die weitgehende Abkopplung des EU-Binnenmarktes für Milchprodukte vom Weltmarkt deutlich abgeschwächt. Preisschwankungen des Weltmarktes können so auf allen Ebenen des Binnenmarktes wirken. In bisherigen Studien zur Preistransmission von Milch und Milchprodukten standen die Beziehungen zwischen Einzelhandel und Erzeuger bzw. Erzeuger und Weltmarkt im Vordergrund. Eine vollständige Betrachtung der gesamten Wertschöpfungskette fand nicht statt. Das Ziel des vorliegenden Beitrages ist es, die Entwicklung der Milchpreise über die gesamte Kette hinweg – vom Milcherzeuger bis zum Einzelhandel/Verbraucher bzw. Weltmarkt – zu untersuchen. Für die Analyse werden monatliche Daten des Zeitraums Januar 1997 bis Oktober 2011 verwendet. Durch Anwendung verschiedener Spezifikationen von Fehlerkorrekturmodellen werden Asymmetrien analysiert.Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass enthaltene Saisoneffekte durch die Preispolitik des Einzelhandels ausgeglichen werden. Allerdings gewinnt die Saisonalität auch bei den internationalen Preisen an Bedeutung. Dies lässt sich auf einen höheren Anteil der graslandbasierten Milchproduktion im internationalen Handel zurückzuführen. Zu sehen ist auch, dass sich Zeitverzögerungen, mit denen Preisänderungen zwischen den Marktstufen der Wertschöpfungskette weitergegeben werden, unterscheiden. Es liegen also Asym- metrien vor. ; The foreclosure of the internal milk market has been significantly reduced with the stepwise reduction of intervention prices and the suspension of export refunds of the European Union. Thus, price developments of the world market could now affect all levels of supply chain. Previous studies on price transmission of milk and milk products refer to the relationship between retail and producers or producers and world markets. Therefore, the objec-tive of this paper is to analyse price transmission along the total supply chain. With a focus on the German cheese market. For the analysis monthly data is used ranging from January 1997 to October 2011. Applying different error correction model specifications asymmetries are analysed. he results indicate that retailers balance seasonal variations of producers' and wholesalers' prices. In addition, it can be noted that seasonality is becoming increasingly important for international prices due to higher shares of grassland based milk production. It can also be shown that the time lags in which price changes are passed on between the different levels differ. Thus, within the supply chain of milk and milk products there exist price asymmetries.

The study examined the impact of the European Union's Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) on the long-run relationship between world and domestic price of banana and cocoa in the Philippines. The Engle-Granger (EG) approach of the co-integration test was done to determine the relationship. After determining that prices of banana and cocoa are co-integrated, structural break was included in the test to address the depressing effect of the policy's export subsidy on world price of agricultural commodities. The test included three models which allowed for changes in the intercept and the slope, as well as a time trend. After estimating the co-integrating equations for these three models, it was concluded that the model which allows for a change in the intercept best describes the impact of structural break on the long-run relationship between prices of cocoa. The model suggested that, in 1982, there was a fundamental change in the parameters of the co-integrating relationship between world and domestic prices of cocoa.

Bu çalışmanın amacı, 2001 krizi sonrası uygulanan dalgalı kur rejimi ile birlikte, Türkiye'deki döviz kuru değişimlerinin iç fiyatlar üzerindeki geçiş etkilerinin boyutunu ve TCMB tarafından uygulanan para politikalarının performansını döviz kuru ve fiyatlar arasındaki karşılıklı etkileşimi de göz önüne alarak incelemektir. Dışsal değişkenler ile birlikte kullanılan VAR analizi (VAR-X) sonrası elde edilen sonuçlara göre, döviz kuru geçiş elastikiyetleri uzun dönemde tüketici fiyatlarında 0.32 olurken üretici fiyatlarında ise 0.51 olmuştur. TÜFE alt grupları incelendiğinde ise, döviz hareketlerinden en çok etkilenen sektör motorlu taşıtlar ile elektrik, gaz ve diğer yakıtlar mal grupları iken ÜFE alt serilerinde ise, en yüksek elastikiyet katsayısı elektrik, gaz, buhar ve iklimlendirme üretimi ve dağıtımında gerçekleşmiştir. İkinci olarak, dönem genelinde döviz kuru şoku karşısında faizler para arzı uyarlamalarına kıyasla çok daha büyük tepkiler vermiştir. Son olarak, para politikası şokları karşısında talep üzerinde istatistiki olarak anlamlı etkiler yaratılamamakta; döviz kurları da istenilen düzeyde etkilenemediğinden döviz kurlarının fiyatlara geçiş etkisinden yararlanılamamakta ve bankanın para politikası etkisiz kalmaktadır. Bu durumda, iç fiyatların etkilenebilmesi ancak banka tarafından kontrol edilemeyen dışsal bir döviz kuru şoku ya da talep şoku ile olacaktır

Until the economic reform that began in China in the 1980s, the central government held a monopoly on foreign trade, with the Minister of Foreign Economic Relations and Trade (MOFERT) exercising control on its behalf and drawing up national import and export plans. The specialised foreign trade corporations supervised by MOFERT handled import and export business. Of these corporations, the Chinese National Cereals, Oils and Foodstuffs Export and Import Corporation (COFCO) was in charge of grain trade. After the economic reform of the mid 1990s, however, this procedure was modified in several respects. In order to break COFCO's monopoly over grain trade, the government introduced a quota allocation system under which other state-owned companies were allowed to participate in grain trade. Meanwhile, aiming at better coordination between domestic grain marketing and foreign grain trade, the State Council created Liang Fen, a new company owned jointly by the Ministry of Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation (MOFTEC) and the MIT. Furthermore, in 1994, China's agent system of foreign trade was adapted to the trade system. The state grain-trading companies began to act as trading agents for MIT and other companies, which were required to pay export and import quota and charge fees accordingly. In this paper, we use domestic wholesale prices to represent domestic prices and choose two wholesale markets for each commodity, one located in the north and the other in the south. The data comes from the China Grain and Oil Food Information Net. For world market prices, c.i.f. and f.o.b. prices are chosen for imports and exports respectively. Our analysis shows that, in the 1990s, China made great progress in its reform of the trade system. The state monopoly was gradually broken, a trade agent system was introduced and more companies were allowed to take part in the grain trade. There was a shift from 'production decides trade' – that is, 'production-oriented trade' – to 'trade decides production', that is, market-oriented production.