Uncovered Interest Parity, Forward Guidance, and the Exchange Rate
In: NBER Working Paper No. w26797
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In: NBER Working Paper No. w26797
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In: NBER Working Paper No. w20294
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In: Hong Kong Institute for Monetary and Financial Research (HKIMR) Research Paper WP No. 11/2009
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In: Journal of institutional and theoretical economics: JITE, Band 130, Heft 3, S. 461-475
ISSN: 0932-4569
In: National Institute economic review: journal of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, Band 125, S. 40-45
ISSN: 1741-3036
In March this year, after a year in which policy appeared to be aimed at achieving stability against EMS currencies, the pound was allowed to rise sharply in response to large capital inflows. As with many fluctuations in exchange rates, this development was puzzling in that the prospects for the balance of payments suggested that the rise in sterling would not prove sustainable. On the other hand, high UK interest rates, particularly in relation to those available in EMS countries, provided some rationale for a temporary rise. This note uses a simple forward-looking equation for the exchange rate to illustrate the implications of alternative paths for interest rates and the balance of payments. A number of simulations are presented to illustrate the key elements of this approach.
In: Frontiers of theoretical economics, Band 2, Heft 1
ISSN: 1935-1704
Abstract
The bias of forward exchange rates as a predictor of future spot rates is typically explained or decomposed as (1) a risk premium and (2) a convexity term which accounts for the fact that, when there is stochastic inflation, nominal gains from forward currency speculation are higher than real ones and correspondingly losses are smaller. We use Nalebuff's envelope puzzle to explain a third source of bias which involves real profits from foreign exchange speculation. Both the "real profit" bias and stochastic inflation bias arise from convexity of g(s)=1/s and so derive from Jensen's inequality as observed by Siegel (1972).
In: Monetary Studies, 2003.02
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In: Artha Vijnana: Journal of The Gokhale Institute of Politics and Economics, Band 55, Heft 3, S. 308
In: Journal of Business of the University of Chicago, Band 10, Heft 1, S. 74
In: HKUST IEMS Working Paper No. 2015-28
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In: Journal of Monetary Economics, Band 49, Heft 5, S. 913-940
In: Hong Kong Institute for Monetary and Financial Research (HKIMR) Research Paper WP No. 21/2012
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In: Journal of institutional and theoretical economics: JITE, Band 131, Heft 4, S. 783-788
ISSN: 0932-4569
In: The Manchester School, Band 56, Heft 1, S. 55-68
ISSN: 1467-9957