Suchergebnisse

The Ifo Business Climate is the most important indicator for the business cycle in Germany. In 1993 the connection between the two components of the business climate - business situation and business expectations - was graphically portrayed by Ifo in a 4-quadrant scheme: the Ifo Business Cycle Clock. Today similar monitoring systems are firmly established and are presented by Eurostat, the OECD and others. The German Federal Statistical Office presents the real GDP in a 4-quadrant scheme. In the following, important qualities of the Ifo Business Cycle Clock are shown. The importance of orthogonal functions for the circular correlation is examined.

AbstractThis paper proposes a new modeling framework capturing both the long‐run and the cyclical components of a time series. As an illustration, we apply it to four US macro series, namely, annual and quarterly real gross domestic product (GDP) and GDP per capita. The results indicate that the behavior of US GDP can be captured accurately by a model incorporating both stochastic trends and stochastic cycles that allows for some degree of persistence in the data. Both appear to be mean reverting, although the stochastic trend is nonstationary, while the cyclical component is stationary, with cycles repeating themselves every 6–10 years.

WOS: 000301469700038 ; In this paper we examine the stationarity property with structural break for real GDP per capita of Bangladesh from 1971 to 2009. The structural break of 1990 representing political regime change in Bangladesh is found to be significant. The unit root test results, both ADF and Phillips-Perron, indicate that real GDP per capita is trend stationary process. This implies that the long-run path for per capita income is not influenced by temporary fluctuations.