Die Fähigkeit, sowohl vernetzt, in Zeitabläufen und in Modellen zu denken als auch systemgerecht zu handeln – kurz: systemisch zu denken – wird in den meisten natur- und gesellschaftswissenschaftlichen Fächern als wichtiges Lernziel angesehen. Besonders geeignet zur Förderung des systemischen Denkens sind Wirkungsdiagramme und System Dynamics, die im Zentrum des vorliegenden Buchs stehen. Die ersten Beiträge widmen sich den theoretischen Grundlagen des systemischen Denkens, der Gestaltung von Wirkungsdiagrammen, dem Lernen mit System Dynamics, dem Modelliertool Insight Maker und generischen Strukturen bzw. Systemarchetypen, die sich sich in vielen unterschiedlichen Situationen finden und somit ein hohes Transferpotenzial aufweisen. Die weiteren Artikel zeigen die Bedeutung des systemischen Denkens und die Unterrichtsgestaltung anhand exemplarischer Beispiele in mehreren Fächern auf: - Deutsch - Biologie - Physik - Geographie - Geschichte - Politik - Wirtschaft Auf der Website des Buchs (www.wirtschaft-lernen.de/systemisches_denken) finden sich Materialien wie Aufgabenblätter, Screencasts und die verwendeten Modelle. ; The ability to think in terms of time, in models, and to act in a systematic way is regarded as an important learning goal in most natural and sociological subjects. Particularly suitable for the promotion of systemic thinking are causal loop diagrams and system dynamics, which this book focuses on. The first contributions address the theoretical foundations of systems thinking, the design of causal loop diagrams, learning with system dynamics, the modeling tool Insight Maker, and generic structures or system archetypes, which are found in many different situations. The other articles show the importance of systems thinking and the design of learning environments in several several subjects: - Biology - German - Physics - Geography - History - Politics - Economy
Background: Studies on the effects of sociodemographic factors on health in aging now include the use of statistical models and machine learning. The aim of this study was to evaluate the determinants of health in aging using machine learning methods and to compare the accuracy with traditional methods. Material/Methods: The health status of 6,209 adults, age 80 years (n=1,357) were measured using an established health metric (0–100) that incorporated physical function and activities of daily living (ADL). Data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) included socio-economic and sociodemographic characteristics and history of falls. Health-trend and personal-fitted variables were generated as predictors of health metrics using three machine learning methods, random forest (RF), deep learning (DL) and the linear model (LM), with calculation of the percentage increase in mean square error (%IncMSE) as a measure of the importance of a given predictive variable, when the variable was removed from the model. Results: Health-trend, physical activity, and personal-fitted variables were the main predictors of health, with the%incMSE of 85.76%, 63.40%, and 46.71%, respectively. Age, employment status, alcohol consumption, and household income had the%incMSE of 20.40%, 20.10%, 16.94%, and 13.61%, respectively. Performance of the RF method was similar to the traditional LM (p=0.7), but RF significantly outperformed DL (p=0.006). Conclusions: Machine learning methods can be used to evaluate multidimensional longitudinal health data and may provide accurate results with fewer requirements when compared with traditional statistical modeling. ; The ATHLOS project has received funding from the European Union Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Program under grant agreement No. 635316 (EU HORIZON2020-PHC-635316)
Background: Pain is a common symptom, often associated with neurological and musculoskeletal conditions, and experienced especially by females and by older people. The aims of this study are to evaluate the temporal variations of pain rates among general populations for the period 1991-2015 and to project 10-year pain rates. Methods: We used the harmonized dataset of ATHLOS project, which included 660,028 valid observations in the period 1990-2015 and we applied Bayesian age-period-cohort modeling to perform projections up to 2025. The harmonized Pain variable covers the content "self-reported pain experienced at the time of the interview", with a dichotomous (yes or no) modality. Results: Pain rates were higher among females, older subjects, in recent periods, and among observations referred to cohorts of subjects born between the 20s and the 60s. The 10-year projections indicate a noteworthy increase in pain rates in both genders and particularly among subjects aged 66 or over, for whom a 10-20% increase in pain rate is foreseen; among females only, a 10-15% increase in pain rates is foreseen for those aged 36-50. Conclusions: Projected increase in pain rates will require specific interventions by health and welfare systems, as pain is responsible for limited quality of subjective well-being, reduced employment rates and hampered work performance. Worksite and lifestyle interventions will therefore be needed to limit the impact of projected higher pain rates. ; The ATHLOS project (Ageing Trajectories of Health: Longitudinal Opportunities and Synergies) has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 635316.
Background: Pain is a common symptom, often associated with neurological and musculoskeletal conditions, and experienced especially by females and by older people, and with increasing trends in general populations. Different risk factors for pain have been identified, but generally from studies with limited samples and a limited number of candidate predictors. The aim of this study is to evaluate the predictors of pain from a large set of variables and respondents. Methods: We used part of the harmonized dataset of ATHLOS project, selecting studies and waves with a longitudinal course, and in which pain was absent at baseline and with no missing at follow-up. Predictors were selected based on missing distribution and univariable association with pain, and were selected from the following domains: Socio-demographic and economic characteristics, Lifestyle and health behaviours, Health status and functional limitations, Diseases, Physical measures, Cognition, personality and other psychological measures, and Social environment. Hierarchical logistic regression models were then applied to identify significant predictors. Results: A total of 13,545 subjects were included of whom 5348 (39.5%) developed pain between baseline and the average 5.2 years' follow-up. Baseline risk factors for pain were female gender (OR 1.34), engaging in vigorous exercise (OR 2.51), being obese (OR 1.36) and suffering from the loss of a close person (OR 1.88) whereas follow-up risk factors were low energy levels/fatigue (1.93), difficulties with walking (1.69), self-rated health referred as poor (OR 2.20) or average to moderate (OR 1.57) and presence of sleep problems (1.80). Conclusions: Our results showed that 39.5% of respondents developed pain over a five-year follow-up period, that there are proximal and distal risk factors for pain, and that part of them are directly modifiable. Actions aimed at improving sleep, reducing weight among obese people and treating fatigue would positively impact on pain onset, and avoiding vigorous exercise should be advised to people aged 60 or over, in particular if female or obese. ; The ATHLOS project (Ageing Trajectories of Health: Longitudinal Opportunities and Synergies) has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 635316
We investigated the relation between alcohol drinking and healthy ageing by meansof a validated health status metric, using individual data from the Ageing Trajectories of Health: Longitudinal Opportunities and Synergies (ATHLOS) project. For the purposes of this study, the ATHLOS harmonised dataset, which includes information from individuals aged 65+ in 38 countries, was analysed (n = 135,440). Alcohol drinking was reflected by means of three harmonised variables: alcohol drinking frequency, current and past alcohol drinker. A set of 41 self-reported health items and measured tests were used to generate a specific health metric. In the harmonised dataset, the prevalence of current drinking was 47.5% while of past drinking was 26.5%. In the pooled sample, current alcohol drinking was positively associated with better health status among older adults ((b-coef (95% CI): 1.32(0.45 to 2.19)) and past alcohol drinking was inversely related (b-coef (95% CI): −0.83 (−1.51 to −0.16)) with health status. Often alcohol consumption appeared to be beneficial only for females in all super-regions except Africa, both age group categories (65–80 years old and 80+), both age group categories, as well as among all the financial status categories (all p < 0.05). Regional analysis pictured diverse patterns in the association for current and past alcohol drinkers. Our results report the need for specific alcohol intake recommendations among older adults that will help them maintain a better health status throughout the ageing process. ; This work was supported by the five-year Ageing Trajectories of Health: Longitudinal Opportunities and Synergies (ATHLOS) project. The ATHLOS project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 635316. The ATHLOS project researchers are grateful for data contribution and funding in the following studies: (A) The 10/66 study (10/66): The 10/66 study is supported by theWellcome Trust (GR066133/ GR080002), the European Research Council (340755), US Alzheimer's Association, WHO, FONDACIT (Venezuela) and the Puerto Rico State Government, and the Medical Research Council (MR/K021907/1 to A.M.P.). The authors gratefully acknowledge the work of the 10/66 Dementia Research Group who provided data for this paper; (B) The Australian Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ALSA): The ALSA study was supported by grants from the South Australian Health Commission, the Australian Rotary Health Research Fund, the US National Institute on Aging (Grant No. AG 08523–02), theO ce for the Ageing (SA), Elderly Citizens Homes (SA), the National Health and Medical Research Council (NH&MRC 22922), the Premiers Science Research Fund (SA) and the Australian Research Council (DP0879152; DP130100428). The authors gratefully acknowledge the work of the project team at the Flinders Centre for Ageing Studies, Flinders University who provided data for this paper; (C) The ATTICA study: The ATTICA study is supported by research grants from the Hellenic Cardiology Society (HCS2002) and the Hellenic Atherosclerosis Society (HAS2003). The authors gratefully acknowledge the work of the project team at the Harokopio University who provided data for this paper; (D) The China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS): The CHARLS study has received critical support from Peking University, the National Natural Science Foundation of China, the Behavioral and Social Research Division of the National Institute on Aging and the World Bank. The authors gratefully acknowledge the work of the project team at the Peking University who provided data for this paper; (E) Collaborative Research on Ageing (COURAGE) in Europe: The COURAGE study was supported by the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007–2013) under grant agreement number 223071 (COURAGE in Europe). Data from Spain were also collected with support from the Instituto de Salud Carlos III-FIS research grants number PS09/00295, PS09/01845, PI12/01490, PI13/00059, PI16/00218 and PI16/01073; the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation ACI-Promociona (ACI2009–1010); the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) 'AWay to Build Europe' grant numbers PI12/01490 and PI13/00059; and by the Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Salud Mental (CIBERSAM), Instituto de Salud Carlos III. Data from Poland were collected with support from the Polish Ministry for Science and Higher Education grant for an international co-financed project (number 1277/7PR/UE/2009/7, 2009–2012) and Jagiellonian University Medical College grant for project COURAGE-POLFUS (K/ZDS/005241). The authors gratefully acknowledge the work of COURAGE researchers who provided data for this paper; (F) The Seniors-ENRICA: The Seniors-ENRICA cohort was funded by an unconditional grant from Sanofi-Aventis, the Ministry of Health of Spain, FIS grant 12/1166 (State Secretary for R+D and FEDER-FSE) and the Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Instituto de Salud Carlos III. The authors gratefully acknowledge the work of the project team at the Universidad Autónoma de Madrid who provided data for this paper; (G) The English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA): ELSA is supported by the U.S. National Institute of Aging, the National Centre for Social Research, the University College London (UCL) and the Institute for Fiscal Studies. The authors gratefully acknowledge the UK Data Service and UCL who provided data for this paper; (H) The Health, Alcohol and Psychosocial factors In Eastern Europe (HAPIEE) study: The HAPIEE study was supported by theWellcome Trust (grant numbers WT064947, WT081081), the US National Institute of Aging (grant number 1RO1AG23522) and the MacArthur Foundation Initiative on Social Upheaval and Health. The authors gratefully acknowledge the work of the project teams at University College London, the National Institute of Public Health in Prague, the Jagiellonian University Medical College in Krakow and the Kaunas University of Medicine who provided data for this paper; (I) The Health 2000/2011 study: The authors gratefully acknowledge the National Institute for Health and Welfare in Finland who provided data for this paper; (J) Health and Retirement Study (HRS): The HRS study is supported by the National Institute on Aging (grant number NIA U01AG009740) and the Social Security Administration, and is conducted by the University of Michigan. The authors gratefully acknowledge the University of Michigan who provided data for this paper; (K) The Japanese Study of Aging and Retirement (JSTAR): The JSTAR is conducted by the Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI), the Hitotsubashi University, and the University of Tokyo. The authors gratefully acknowledge the RIETI who provided data for this paper; (L) The Korean Longitudinal Study of Ageing (KLOSA): The KLOSA study is funded by the Korea Employment Information Service (KEIS) and was supported by the Korea Labor Institute's KLOSA Team. The authors gratefully acknowledge the KEIS who provided data for this paper; (M) The Mexican Health and Aging Study (MHAS): The MHAS study is partly sponsored by the National Institutes of Health/National Institute on Aging (grant number NIH R01AG018016) and the INEGI in Mexico. The authors gratefully acknowledge the MHAS team who provided data for this paper retrieved from www.MHASweb.org: (N) The Study on Global Ageing and Adult Health (SAGE): The SAGE study is funded by the U.S. National Institute on Aging and has received financial support through Interagency Agreements (OGHA 04034785; YA1323-08-CN-0020; Y1-AG-1005–01) and Grants (R01-AG034479; IR21-AG034263-0182). The authors gratefully acknowledge theWorld Health Organizationwho provided data for this paper; (O) The Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE): The SHARE study is funded by the European Commission through FP5 (QLK6-CT-2001–00360), FP6 (SHARE-I3: RII-CT-2006–062193, COMPARE: CIT5-CT-2005–028857, SHARELIFE: CIT4-CT-2006–028812) and FP7 (SHARE-PREP: N 211909, SHARE-LEAP: N 227822, SHARE M4: N 261982). Additional funding from the German Ministry of Education and Research, the Max Planck Society for the Advancement of Science, the U.S. National Institute on Aging (U01_AG09740-13S2, P01_AG005842, P01_AG08291, P30_AG12815, R21_AG025169, Y1-AG-4553–01, IAG_BSR06-11, OGHA_04-064, HHSN271201300071C) and from various national funding sources is gratefully acknowledged (see www.share-project.org); (P) The Irish Longitudinal study on Ageing (TILDA): The authors gratefully acknowledge the Trinity College Dublin and the Irish Social Science Data Archive (www.ucd.ie/issda) who provided data for this paper; (Q) The Uppsala Birth Cohort Multigenerational Study (UBCOS): The UBCoS study has received funding from the Swedish Research Council for Health, Working Life and Welfare (FORTE; 2006–1518 and 2013–1084) and from the Swedish Research Council (VR; 2013–5104 and 2013–5474). The authors gratefully acknowledge the Centre for Health Equity Studies at the Stockholm University and Karolinska Institutet's team who provided data for this paper. Additionally, Stefanos Tyrovolas was supported by the Foundation for Education and European Culture, the Miguel Servet programme (reference CP18/00006), and the Fondos Europeos de Desarrollo Regional. Also, Alberto Raggi is supported by a grant from the Italian Ministry of Health (Ricerca Corrente, Fondazione Istituto Neurologico C. Besta, Linea 4—Outcome Research: dagli Indicatori alle Raccomandazioni Cliniche. The funders of the study had no role in study design, data collection, data analysis, data interpretation, or writing of the report. The authors had access to the data in the study and had final responsibility for the decision to submit for publication.
