Suchergebnisse

The politicization of global environmental change has already injected scientific evidence (and uncertainties) in the policy domain—national and international. The nature of political discourse has and will continue to be affected by assessments of these changes. The purpose of this concluding discussion is threefold: (a) to identify conceptual elements for analysis of global environmental change which could provide a realistic framework for future research; (b) to identify salient features of the political economy of global environmental change; and (c) to identify key research and policy challenges in the study of international relations. Clearly the institutional and policy-related aspects are recognized by almost everyone as being crucial for developing an overall understanding of global change. Since human activities have contributed to fundamental interventions in natural processes, understanding the social underpinnings of these interventions (institutional, political, economic) is an essential part of an inquiry into the political economy of global change.

The politicization of global environmental change has already injected scientific evidence (and uncertainties) in the policy domain- national and international. The nature of political discourse has and will continue to be affected by assessments of these changes. The purpose of this concluding discussion is threefold: (a) to identify conceptual elements for analysis of global environmental change which could provide a realistic framework for future research; (b) to identify salient features of the polit ical economy of global environmental change; and (c) to identify key research and policy challenges in the study of international relations. Clearly the institutional and policy-related aspects are recognized by almost everyone as being crucial for developing an overall understanding of global change. Since human activities have contributed to fundamental interventions in natural processes, understanding the social underpinnings of these interventions (institutional, political, economic) is an essential part of an inquiry into the political economy of global change.

The crucial connections between environment and conflict among nations continue to escape political scrutiny. The international community as yet pays little attention to such connections, thereby missing the opportunity for both preventive measures and effective responses to managing the consequences after the outbreak of war. Such acute international myopia serves neither global welfare nor efforts to design a better world for the twenty-first century. This article addresses some crucial connections. However compelling they may be, facts alone are seldom enough. Facts must be interpreted and decisions based on coherent analysis; only then can we consider the merits of alternative policy options-and choose among the best. By definition, conflict damages natural environments; ecological costs are always incurred; degradation leads to more degradation and invariably to environmental damage-and the vicious cycle can go on and on. Environ- mental damage in the Middle East following the Gulf war is among the most compelling cases to date.

An analysis of the factors involved in international technological advance and of the various strains and tensions created by the intervention of national political considerations.

What we have in the Middle East today is a very distinctive and peculiar phenomenon that can be understood only in the context of the realities of the past decade: almost everyone is on the move. Nowhere do we see a truly national labor market. While declining oil prices will almost certainly reduce the growth of the labor mobility, even perhaps eliminating it entirely, the fact remains that almost every country relies on sending labor, or on receiving labor, or on both. This fact will remain with us well into the foreseeable future. For example, over 80 percent of Kuwait's labor force is composed of nonnationals; 50 percent of the country's population are noncitizens. While this is indeed a stark profile, it is certainly unreasonable to expect that all foreigners will be "returned." There is almost no scenario one can conjure to reestablish truly national labor markets that would, in turn, eliminate this internationalization of employment practices. This is precisely what makes the issue of labor migration an intensely political, rather than simply an economic, issue in the Middle East today. The foreign policies of nations, Arab and non-Arab, are increasingly shaped by manpower connections, and issues that were conventionally thought to be in the realm of "low politics"--to be dealt with by technocrats, bureaucrats, economists, and the like--have been catapulted into the arena of "high politics," pressing themselves upon the attention and shaping the priorities of almost every leader in the region. Remittances from employment abroad are a major feature of the manpower mosaic in the Middle East. By official estimates, Egyptians remit about $3 billion per year. (But there are indications that this figure may be falling because migration is tapering off.) This is an official figure, accounted for in the country's balance of payments. Once these earnings are remitted, it is conventionally believed that a whole variety of economic effects takes place. This added income in the hands of consumers, translated into more purchasing power, leads to increased aggregate demand and eventually increased output. Most observers believe, however, that remittances are essentially "squanderables," going into consumer goods, luxury items, TV's, and so forth. No one knows for sure what happens to the remitted earnings, but analysts have tended to focus on their impact for the real side of the economy, that is, the goods market rather than the monetary side, money supply, and foreign exchange markets. Generally, almost everyone attributes the growing inflation in the labor-exporting countries to the flow of remittances. On balance, then, there are "goods" and "bads" associated with remittances; how much of each remains quite unclear. The revolutionary uprising of Palestinians within the occupied territories, and within Israel, is tying labor issues to security concerns, connecting both with strong contentions against authority of the occupying power. The simplicity of conventional definitions is being challenged: are Palestinians working in Israel "migrant labor," "citizens," "refugees," or some other category? In a region where people are intensely politicized, issues of mobility, migration, employment, and labor are increasingly ones of "high politics."

Essay über die wirtschaftlichen, politischen und sozialen Probleme der grenzüberschreitenden Migration im Vorderen Orient. Im Mittelpunkt stehen Fragen der Arbeitskräftewanderung, die Flüchtlingsthematik wird nur gestreift. (DÜI-Hns)

Ten years after the first oil price rises were declared in 1973 the countries of the Middle East were still struggling to understand the implications of these momentous events. Economic changes induced by events of 1973 created a dynamic process that fundamentally changed both the view of, and the reality in, the Arab world. The economic development of the region is critically tied to manpower requirements; many of the bottlenecks and constraints on economic growth stem directly from the flow of labor across national boundaries. The appearance of increasing numbers of South and East Asian workers in the Arab Gulf represents the most important recent change in the labor markets of the region. The new flows of Asian labor, beginning around 1975, were partly a response to market conditions and partly fueled by political concerns. Arab labor exporters could not fully meet the demand for labor. In addition, Asians had a distinct political advantage: Asian workers were unlikely to make claims for citizenship. Asians were alien and could continue to remain disenfranchised. They were regarded as more likely to be passive observers of political processes rather than as potential activists or claimants on social services and other benefits of citizenship. Now, at the time of writing, in 1983, there emerge signs of yet another change. The Middle East press reports new labor agreements among Arab countries as well as criticism of the large number of Asians. These signs must be interpreted with caution. If such a reaction is occurring it may be politically motivated. For example, while Arab labor contractors might now become almost as effective as their Asian counterparts, they are unlikely to have surpassed them. To fully appreciate the implications of the Asian presence, it must. be placed in the context of migration processes in the Middle East. This article presents the view from the Middle East by reviewing the migration processes of the past decade and highlighting the initial issues of political economy emerging from the large-scale movement of labor across national boundaries. The major policy issues are then identified, as an essential requisite for making cautious assessments regarding future prospects.