Suchergebnisse

This article examines one aspect of the contests for the leadership of the British Conservative Party: the 'third' hurdle. Since the introduction of formal elections no Conservative leader has been tripped up by the third hurdle (a need to win 'convincingly') but this has not prevented its existence as being taken as fact. This article considers whether it exists at all, and if so, attempts to consider its height. It concludes that if the third hurdle exists it owes more to realpolitik than to precise statistical measurement.

The possible effect of by-elections on this Government, and future governments with small majorities, is considered, concentrating on by-elections forced on governments through the death of their MPs. Based on the current age structure of the Conservative party in parliament and previous mortality rates among MPs, it is speculated that the Government will have had seven by-elections forced on it by the next election. More serious problems exist for a future Labour Government elected with a similar majority, since Labour MPs seem to die more frequently than Conservatives: over 50% more Labour MPs than Conservatives have died since 1964. This does not seem to be caused by the age structure of the PLP nor the MPs' former occupations. Both the very limited correlation between age and marginality of MPs and the different electoral geography of the parties are discussed, and found to have very little effect on the potential by-elections.

Intro -- Praise -- Title Page -- Contents -- Foreword by Stephen Bush -- Introduction -- List of contributors -- 1: Slippery polls: why public opinion is so difficult to measure (Rob Johns) -- 2: Not getting worse: polling accuracy (Christopher Wlezien) -- 3: Why one in ten Britons support the Monetary Control Bill (even though it doesn't exist): public opinion and nonattitudes (Patrick Sturgis) -- 4: When people don't know what they are going to do: meaningless polling questions (Anthony Wells) -- 5: Information matters: public support for overseas aid (Jennifer van Heerde-Hudson) -- 6: Wrong about nearly everything, but still rational: public opinion as a thermostat (Will Jennings) -- 7: Rash promises and tears: exit polls (John Curtice) -- 8: Mondeo meh: the myth of target voters (James Morris) -- 9: The surprise of June 2016: how public opinion changes during referendum campaigns (Alan Renwick) -- 10: Playing on home turf: the importance of issue ownership (James Dennison) -- 11: Looking good for election day: do attractive candidates do better? (Caitlin Milazzo) -- 12: Worth the paper they're written on: party manifestos (Nicholas Allen) -- 13: Signed, sealed, delivered… Testing politicians' responsiveness to voters (Rebecca McKee) -- 14: Turnout for what? The (mis)measurement of electoral participation (Christopher Prosser) -- 15: Turn over, tune out and log off: the irrelevance of campaigns (Mark Pack) -- 16: Of mousers and men: how politics colours everything we see (Robert Ford) -- 17: Neither Arthur nor Martha: gender identities (Nicola Wildash) -- 18: Too scared to switch: why voters' emotions matter (Markus Wagner) -- 19: What's in a name: ballot order effects (Galina Borisyuk) -- 20: Racism at the ballot box: ethnic minority candidates (Stephen Fisher) -- 21: Not total recall: why people lie about voting (Paul Whiteley).

The British General Election of 2017 is the definitive and authoritative account of one of the most dramatic elections in British history. Throwing aside her natural caution, Theresa May called a snap election and was widely expected to crush Jeremy Corbyn's Labour Party. Her gamble backfired spectacularly as the Conservatives lost their Commons majority to a resurgent Labour led by one of the most unconventional politicians to lead a major British political party. Drawing on hundreds of interviews, with unparalleled access to all the key players, The British General Election of 2017 offers a revelatory guide to what really happened. The 20th edition in this prestigious series of books dating back to 1945, it is designed to appeal to everyone -- from Westminster insiders and politics students to the wider general public. Philip Cowley is Professor of Politics at Queen Mary University of London, UK. He has been involved in the Palgrave Macmillan election series since 2010. Dennis Kavanagh is Emeritus Professor of Politics at the University of Liverpool, UK. He has been involved in every one of the Palgrave Macmillan election studies since February 1974.--

The British General Election of 2015 is a must-read for anyone wanting to know how the action unfolded in the most unpredictable election for a generation.

AbstractAre there electoral consequences or benefits for legislators who deviate from the party line? We answer this question with data from individual-level vote choice and constituency-level electoral results in the UK for the last two decades. Exploring the variations in voting patterns over time with a panel-regression approach, we find results that are most compatible with the null hypothesis, that is, that dissent by legislators is neither rewarded nor punished in elections. These results call into question the degree to which voters know and/or care about legislative dissent in parliament.