Purpose: To survey healthcare workers (HCW) on availability and use of personal protective equipment (PPE) caring for COVID-19 patients in the intensive care unit (ICU) Materials and Method: A web-based survey distributed worldwide in April 2020. Results: We received 2711 responses from 1797 (67%) physicians, 744 (27%) nurses, and 170 (6%) Allied HCW. For routine care, most (1557, 58%) reportedly used FFP2/N95 masks, waterproof long sleeve gowns (1623; 67%), and face shields/visors (1574; 62%). Powered Air-Purifying Respirators were used routinely and for intubation only by 184 (7%) and 254 (13%) respondents, respectively. Surgical masks were used for routine care by 289 (15%) and 47 (2%) for intubations. At least one piece of standard PPE was unavailable for 1402 (52%), and 817 (30%) reported reusing single-use PPE. PPE was worn for a median of 4 hours (IQR 2, 5). Adverse effects of PPE were associated with longer shift durations and included heat (1266, 51%), thirst (1174, 47%), pressure areas (1088, 44%), headaches (696, 28%), Inability to use the bathroom (661, 27%) and extreme exhaustion (492, 20%). Conclusions: HCWs reported widespread shortages, frequent reuse of, and adverse effects related to PPE. Urgent action by healthcare administrators, policymakers, governments and industry is warranted.
Funding: he support of the study in France by a grant from Fondation Assistance Publique-Hôpitaux de Paris Pour la Recherche is greatly appreciated. In Norway, the study was supported by a grant from Health Region West. In addition, EOSCsecretariat.eu provided support and has received funding from the European Union's Horizon Programme call H2020-INFRAEOSC-05-2018-2019, grant agreement number 831644. This work was supported by the Forschungskommission of the Medical Faculty of Heinrich-Heine-University Düsseldorf (grant 2018-32 to GW and grant 2020-21 to RB for a Clinician Scientist Track). The complete list of COVIP collaborators is provided in Multimedia Appendix 10. ; BACKGROUND: The SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic is challenging health care systems globally. The disease disproportionately affects the elderly population, both in terms of disease severity and mortality risk. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to evaluate machine-learning based prognostication models for critically ill elderly COVID-19 patients, which dynamically incorporated multifaceted clinical information on the evolution of the disease. METHODS: This multi-centre cohort study obtained patient data from 151 ICUs from 26 countries (COVIP study). Different models based on the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), Logistic Regression (LR), Random Forest (RF) and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) were derived as baseline models that included admission variables only. We subsequently included clinical events and time-to-event as additional variables to derive the final models using the same algorithms and compared their performance with the baseline group. Furthermore, we derived baseline and final models on a European patient cohort and externally validated them on a non-European cohort that included Asian, African and American patients. RESULTS: In total, 1,432 elderly (≥70 years) COVID-19 positive patients were admitted to an intensive care unit. Of these 809 (56.5%) patients survived up to 30 days after admission. The average length of stay was 21.6 (±18.2) days. Final models that incorporated clinical events and time-to-event provided superior performance with AUC of 0.81 (95% CI 0.804-0.811), with respect to both, the baseline models that used admission variables only and conventional ICU prediction models (SOFA-score, p<.001). The average precision increased from 0.65 (95% CI 0.650-0.655) to 0.77 (95% CI 0.759-0.770). CONCLUSIONS: Integrating important clinical events and time-to-event information led to a superior accuracy of 30-day mortality prediction compared with models based on the admission information and conventional ICU prediction models. The present study shows that machine-learning models provide additional information and may support complex decision-making in critically ill elderly COVID-19 patients. CLINICALTRIAL: Nct04321265. ; publishersversion ; published
Dealing with the dynamics of identification and conflict, this book uses theoretical orientations ranging from political ecology to rational choice theory, interpretive approaches, Marxism and multiscalar analysis. Case studies set in Africa, Europe and Central Asia are grouped in three sections devoted to pastoralism, identity and migration. What connects all of these anthropological explorations is a close focus on processes of identification and conflict at the level of particular actors in relation to the behaviour of large aggregates of people and to systemic conditions
Zugriffsoptionen:
Die folgenden Links führen aus den jeweiligen lokalen Bibliotheken zum Volltext:
Funding: This study was endorsed by the ESICM. Free support for running the electronic database was granted from the Department of Epidemiology, Aarhus University, Denmark. The support of the study in France by a grant from 'Fondation Assistance Publique-Hôpitaux de Paris pour la recherche' is greatly appreciated. In Norway, the study was supported by a grant from the Health Region West. In addition, the study was supported by a grant from the European Open Science Cloud (EOSC). EOSCsecretariat.eu has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 Framework Programme called H2020-INFRAEOSC-05-2018-2019, Grant Agreement Number 831644. This work was supported by the Forschungskommission of the Medical Faculty of the Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf, No. 2018-32 to G.W. and No. 2020-21 to R.R.B. for a Clinician Scientist Track. Open access funding was enabled and organized by Projekt DEAL. No (industry) sponsorship has been received for this investigator-initiated study. ; AIMS: Chronic heart failure (CHF) is a major risk factor for mortality in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). This prospective international multicentre study investigates the role of pre-existing CHF on clinical outcomes of critically ill old (≥70 years) intensive care patients with COVID-19. METHODS AND RESULTS: Patients with pre-existing CHF were subclassified as having ischaemic or non-ischaemic cardiac disease; patients with a documented ejection fraction (EF) were subclassified according to heart failure EF: reduced (HFrEF, n = 132), mild (HFmrEF, n = 91), or preserved (HFpEF, n = 103). Associations of heart failure characteristics with the 30 day mortality were analysed in univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. Pre-existing CHF was reported in 566 of 3917 patients (14%). Patients with CHF were older, frailer, and had significantly higher SOFA scores on admission. CHF patients showed significantly higher crude 30 day mortality [60% vs. 48%, P < 0.001; odds ratio 1.87, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.5-2.3] and 3 month mortality (69% vs. 56%, P < 0.001). After multivariate adjustment for confounders (SOFA, age, sex, and frailty), no independent association of CHF with mortality remained [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 1.2, 95% CI 0.5-1.5; P = 0.137]. More patients suffered from pre-existing ischaemic than from non-ischaemic disease [233 vs. 328 patients (n = 5 unknown aetiology)]. There were no differences in baseline characteristics between ischaemic and non-ischaemic disease or between HFrEF, HFmrEF, and HFpEF. Crude 30 day mortality was significantly higher in HFrEF compared with HFpEF (64% vs. 48%, P = 0.042). EF as a continuous variable was not independently associated with 30 day mortality (aOR 0.98, 95% CI 0.9-1.0; P = 0.128). CONCLUSIONS: In critically ill older COVID-19 patients, pre-existing CHF was not independently associated with 30 day mortality. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT04321265. ; publishersversion ; epub_ahead_of_print
Open Access funding enabled and organized by Projekt DEAL. This study was endorsed by the ESICM. Free support for running the electronic database and was granted from the dep. of Epidemiology, University of Aarhus, Denmark. Bruno et al. Annals of Intensive Care (2022) 12:26 Page 10 of 11 The support of the study in France by a grant from Fondation Assistance Publique-Hôpitaux de Paris pour la recherche is greatly appreciated. In Norway, the study was supported by a grant from the Health Region West. In addition, the study was supported by a grant from the European Open Science Cloud (EOSC). EOSCsecretariat.eu has received funding from the European Union's Horizon Programme call H2020-INFRAEOSC-05-2018-2019, grant agreement number 831644. This work was supported by the Collaborative Research Center SFB 1116 (German Research Foundation, DFG) and by the Forschungskommission of the Medical Faculty of the Heinrich-Heine-University Düsseldorf and No. 2020–21 to RRB for a Clinician Scientist Track. No (industry) sponsorship has been received for this investigator-initiated study. ; PURPOSE: Critically ill old intensive care unit (ICU) patients suffering from Sars-CoV-2 disease (COVID-19) are at increased risk for adverse outcomes. This post hoc analysis investigates the association of the Activities of Daily Living (ADL) with the outcome in this vulnerable patient group. METHODS: The COVIP study is a prospective international observational study that recruited ICU patients ≥ 70 years admitted with COVID-19 (NCT04321265). Several parameters including ADL (ADL; 0 = disability, 6 = no disability), Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS), SOFA score, intensive care treatment, ICU- and 3-month survival were recorded. A mixed-effects Weibull proportional hazard regression analyses for 3-month mortality adjusted for multiple confounders. RESULTS: This pre-specified analysis included 2359 patients with a documented ADL and CFS. Most patients evidenced independence in their daily living before hospital admission (80% with ADL = 6). ...
Funding: In addition, the study was supported by a grant from the European Open Science Cloud (EOSC). EOSCsecretariat.eu has received funding from the European Union's Horizon Programme call H2020-INFRAEOSC-05-2018-2019, grant agreement number 831644. This work was supported by the Forschungskommission of the Medical Faculty of the Heinrich-Heine-University Düsseldorf, No. 2018-32 to G.W. and No. 2020-21 to R.R.B. for a Clinician Scientist Track. ; BACKGROUND: health-related quality of life (HRQoL) is an important patient-centred outcome in patients surviving ICU admission for COVID-19. It is currently not clear which domains of the HRQoL are most affected. OBJECTIVE: to quantify HRQoL in order to identify areas of interventions. DESIGN: prospective observation study. SETTING: admissions to European ICUs between March 2020 and February 2021. SUBJECTS: patients aged 70 years or older admitted with COVID-19 disease. METHODS: collected determinants include SOFA-score, Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS), number and timing of ICU procedures and limitation of care, Katz Activities of Daily Living (ADL) dependence score. HRQoL was assessed at 3 months after ICU admission with the Euro-QoL-5D-5L questionnaire. An outcome of ≥4 on any of Euro-QoL-5D-5L domains was considered unfavourable. RESULTS: in total 3,140 patients from 14 European countries were included in this study. Three months after inclusion, 1,224 patients (39.0%) were alive and the EQ-5D-5L from was obtained. The CFS was associated with an increased odds ratio for an unfavourable HRQoL outcome after 3 months; OR 1.15 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.71-1.87) for CFS 2 to OR 4.33 (95% CI: 1.57-11.9) for CFS ≧ 7. The Katz ADL was not statistically significantly associated with HRQoL after 3 months. CONCLUSIONS: in critically ill old intensive care patients suffering from COVID-19, the CFS is associated with the subjectively perceived quality of life. The CFS on admission can be used to inform patients and relatives on the risk of an unfavourable qualitative outcome if such patients survive. ; publishersversion ; published
In: Social psychiatry and psychiatric epidemiology: SPPE ; the international journal for research in social and genetic epidemiology and mental health services, Band 59, Heft 7, S. 1113-1127
In: Glasbey , J C , Ademuyiwa , A , Adisa , A , AlAmeer , E , Arnaud , A P , Ayasra , F , Azevedo , J , Bravo , A M , Costas-Chavarri , A , Edwards , J , Elhadi , M , Fiore , M , Fotopoulou , C , Gallo , G , Ghosh , D , Griffiths , E A , Harrison , E , Hutchinson , P , Lawani , I , Lawday , S , Lederhuber , H , Leventoglu , S , Li , E , Gomes , G M A , Mann , H , Marson , E J , Martin , J , Mazingi , D , McLean , K , Modolo , M , Moore , R , Morton , D , Ntirenganya , F , Pata , F , Picciochi , M , Pockney , P , Ramos-De la Medina , A , Roberts , K , Roslani , A C , Seenivasagam , R K , Shaw , R , Simoes , J F F , Smart , N , Stewart , G D , Sullivan , R , COVIDSurg Collaborative , Global Initiative for Children's Surgery , GlobalSurg , GlobalPaedSurg , ItSURG , PTSurg , SpainSurg , Italian Society of Colorectal Surgery , Association of Surgeons in Training , Irish Surgical Research Collaborative , Transatlantic Australasian Retroperitoneal Sarcoma Working Group , Italian Society of Surgical Oncology , Kuiper , S Z , Melenhorst , J , Poeze , M , Sluijpers , N R F & Vaassen , L A A 2021 , ' Effect of COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns on planned cancer surgery for 15 tumour types in 61 countries: an international, prospective, cohort study ' , Lancet oncology , vol. 22 , no. 11 , pp. 1507-1517 . https://doi.org/10.1016/S1470-2045(21)00493-9
Background Surgery is the main modality of cure for solid cancers and was prioritised to continue during COVID-19 outbreaks. This study aimed to identify immediate areas for system strengthening by comparing the delivery of elective cancer surgery during the COVID-19 pandemic in periods of lockdown versus light restrictions. Methods This international, prospective, cohort study enrolled 20 006 adult (>= 18 years) patients from 466 hospitals in 61 countries with 15 cancer types, who had a decision for curative surgery during the COVID-19 pandemic and were followed up until the point of surgery or cessation of follow-up (Aug 31, 2020). Average national Oxford COVID-19 Stringency Index scores were calculated to define the government response to COVID-19 for each patient for the period they awaited surgery, and classified into light restrictions (index 60). The primary outcome was the non-operation rate (defined as the proportion of patients who did not undergo planned surgery). Cox proportional-hazards regression models were used to explore the associations between lockdowns and non-operation. Intervals from diagnosis to surgery were compared across COVID-19 government response index groups. This study was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04384926. Findings Of eligible patients awaiting surgery, 2003 (10middot0%) of 20 006 did not receive surgery after a median follow-up of 23 weeks (IQR 16-30), all of whom had a COVID-19-related reason given for non-operation. Light restrictions were associated with a 0middot6% non-operation rate (26 of 4521), moderate lockdowns with a 5middot5% rate (201 of 3646; adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 0middot81, 95% CI 0middot77-0middot84; p<0middot0001), and full lockdowns with a 15middot0% rate (1775 of 11 827; HR 0middot51, 0middot50-0middot53; p<0middot0001). In sensitivity analyses, including adjustment for SARS-CoV-2 case notification rates, moderate lockdowns (HR 0middot84, 95% CI 0middot80-0middot88; ...
Background Surgery is the main modality of cure for solid cancers and was prioritised to continue during COVID-19 outbreaks. This study aimed to identify immediate areas for system strengthening by comparing the delivery of elective cancer surgery during the COVID-19 pandemic in periods of lockdown versus light restriction. Methods This international, prospective, cohort study enrolled 20 006 adult (≥18 years) patients from 466 hospitals in 61 countries with 15 cancer types, who had a decision for curative surgery during the COVID-19 pandemic and were followed up until the point of surgery or cessation of follow-up (Aug 31, 2020). Average national Oxford COVID-19 Stringency Index scores were calculated to define the government response to COVID-19 for each patient for the period they awaited surgery, and classified into light restrictions (index 60). The primary outcome was the non-operation rate (defined as the proportion of patients who did not undergo planned surgery). Cox proportional-hazards regression models were used to explore the associations between lockdowns and non-operation. Intervals from diagnosis to surgery were compared across COVID-19 government response index groups. This study was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04384926. Findings Of eligible patients awaiting surgery, 2003 (10·0%) of 20 006 did not receive surgery after a median follow-up of 23 weeks (IQR 16–30), all of whom had a COVID-19-related reason given for non-operation. Light restrictions were associated with a 0·6% non-operation rate (26 of 4521), moderate lockdowns with a 5·5% rate (201 of 3646; adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 0·81, 95% CI 0·77–0·84; p<0·0001), and full lockdowns with a 15·0% rate (1775 of 11 827; HR 0·51, 0·50–0·53; p<0·0001). In sensitivity analyses, including adjustment for SARS-CoV-2 case notification rates, moderate lockdowns (HR 0·84, 95% CI 0·80–0·88; p<0·001), and full lockdowns (0·57, 0·54–0·60; p<0·001), remained independently associated with non-operation. Surgery beyond 12 weeks from diagnosis in patients without neoadjuvant therapy increased during lockdowns (374 [9·1%] of 4521 in light restrictions, 317 [10·4%] of 3646 in moderate lockdowns, 2001 [23·8%] of 11 827 in full lockdowns), although there were no differences in resectability rates observed with longer delays. Interpretation Cancer surgery systems worldwide were fragile to lockdowns, with one in seven patients who were in regions with full lockdowns not undergoing planned surgery and experiencing longer preoperative delays. Although short-term oncological outcomes were not compromised in those selected for surgery, delays and non-operations might lead to long-term reductions in survival. During current and future periods of societal restriction, the resilience of elective surgery systems requires strengthening, which might include protected elective surgical pathways and long-term investment in surge capacity for acute care during public health emergencies to protect elective staff and services.
Background Surgery is the main modality of cure for solid cancers and was prioritised to continue during COVID-19 outbreaks. This study aimed to identify immediate areas for system strengthening by comparing the delivery of elective cancer surgery during the COVID-19 pandemic in periods of lockdown versus light restriction. Methods This international, prospective, cohort study enrolled 20 006 adult (≥18 years) patients from 466 hospitals in 61 countries with 15 cancer types, who had a decision for curative surgery during the COVID-19 pandemic and were followed up until the point of surgery or cessation of follow-up (Aug 31, 2020). Average national Oxford COVID-19 Stringency Index scores were calculated to define the government response to COVID-19 for each patient for the period they awaited surgery, and classified into light restrictions (index 60). The primary outcome was the non-operation rate (defined as the proportion of patients who did not undergo planned surgery). Cox proportional-hazards regression models were used to explore the associations between lockdowns and non-operation. Intervals from diagnosis to surgery were compared across COVID-19 government response index groups. This study was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04384926. Findings Of eligible patients awaiting surgery, 2003 (10·0%) of 20 006 did not receive surgery after a median follow-up of 23 weeks (IQR 16–30), all of whom had a COVID-19-related reason given for non-operation. Light restrictions were associated with a 0·6% non-operation rate (26 of 4521), moderate lockdowns with a 5·5% rate (201 of 3646; adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 0·81, 95% CI 0·77–0·84; p<0·0001), and full lockdowns with a 15·0% rate (1775 of 11 827; HR 0·51, 0·50–0·53; p<0·0001). In sensitivity analyses, including adjustment for SARS-CoV-2 case notification rates, moderate lockdowns (HR 0·84, 95% CI 0·80–0·88; p<0·001), and full lockdowns (0·57, 0·54–0·60; p<0·001), remained independently associated with non-operation. Surgery beyond 12 weeks from diagnosis in patients without neoadjuvant therapy increased during lockdowns (374 [9·1%] of 4521 in light restrictions, 317 [10·4%] of 3646 in moderate lockdowns, 2001 [23·8%] of 11 827 in full lockdowns), although there were no differences in resectability rates observed with longer delays. Interpretation Cancer surgery systems worldwide were fragile to lockdowns, with one in seven patients who were in regions with full lockdowns not undergoing planned surgery and experiencing longer preoperative delays. Although short-term oncological outcomes were not compromised in those selected for surgery, delays and non-operations might lead to long-term reductions in survival. During current and future periods of societal restriction, the resilience of elective surgery systems requires strengthening, which might include protected elective surgical pathways and long-term investment in surge capacity for acute care during public health emergencies to protect elective staff and services. Funding National Institute for Health Research Global Health Research Unit, Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland, Bowel and Cancer Research, Bowel Disease Research Foundation, Association of Upper Gastrointestinal Surgeons, British Association of Surgical Oncology, British Gynaecological Cancer Society, European Society of Coloproctology, Medtronic, Sarcoma UK, The Urology Foundation, Vascular Society for Great Britain and Ireland, and Yorkshire Cancer Research.
Background Surgery is the main modality of cure for solid cancers and was prioritised to continue during COVID-19 outbreaks. This study aimed to identify immediate areas for system strengthening by comparing the delivery of elective cancer surgery during the COVID-19 pandemic in periods of lockdown versus light restriction. Methods This international, prospective, cohort study enrolled 20 006 adult (≥18 years) patients from 466 hospitals in 61 countries with 15 cancer types, who had a decision for curative surgery during the COVID-19 pandemic and were followed up until the point of surgery or cessation of follow-up (Aug 31, 2020). Average national Oxford COVID-19 Stringency Index scores were calculated to define the government response to COVID-19 for each patient for the period they awaited surgery, and classified into light restrictions (index 60). The primary outcome was the non-operation rate (defined as the proportion of patients who did not undergo planned surgery). Cox proportional-hazards regression models were used to explore the associations between lockdowns and non-operation. Intervals from diagnosis to surgery were compared across COVID-19 government response index groups. This study was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04384926. Findings Of eligible patients awaiting surgery, 2003 (10·0%) of 20 006 did not receive surgery after a median follow-up of 23 weeks (IQR 16–30), all of whom had a COVID-19-related reason given for non-operation. Light restrictions were associated with a 0·6% non-operation rate (26 of 4521), moderate lockdowns with a 5·5% rate (201 of 3646; adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 0·81, 95% CI 0·77–0·84; p<0·0001), and full lockdowns with a 15·0% rate (1775 of 11 827; HR 0·51, 0·50–0·53; p<0·0001). In sensitivity analyses, including adjustment for SARS-CoV-2 case notification rates, moderate lockdowns (HR 0·84, 95% CI 0·80–0·88; p<0·001), and full lockdowns (0·57, 0·54–0·60; p<0·001), remained independently associated with non-operation. Surgery beyond 12 weeks from diagnosis in patients without neoadjuvant therapy increased during lockdowns (374 [9·1%] of 4521 in light restrictions, 317 [10·4%] of 3646 in moderate lockdowns, 2001 [23·8%] of 11827 in full lockdowns), although there were no differences in resectability rates observed with longer delays. Interpretation Cancer surgery systems worldwide were fragile to lockdowns, with one in seven patients who were in regions with full lockdowns not undergoing planned surgery and experiencing longer preoperative delays. Although short-term oncological outcomes were not compromised in those selected for surgery, delays and non-operations might lead to long-term reductions in survival. During current and future periods of societal restriction, the resilience of elective surgery systems requires strengthening, which might include protected elective surgical pathways and long- term investment in surge capacity for acute care during public health emergencies to protect elective staff and services. Funding National Institute for Health Research Global Health Research Unit, Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland, Bowel and Cancer Research, Bowel Disease Research Foundation, Association of Upper Gastrointestinal Surgeons, British Association of Surgical Oncology, British Gynaecological Cancer Society, European Society of Coloproctology, Medtronic, Sarcoma UK, The Urology Foundation, Vascular Society for Great Britain and Ireland, and Yorkshire Cancer Research.
Background: Surgery is the main modality of cure for solid cancers and was prioritised to continue during COVID-19 outbreaks. This study aimed to identify immediate areas for system strengthening by comparing the delivery of elective cancer surgery during the COVID-19 pandemic in periods of lockdown versus light restriction. Methods: This international, prospective, cohort study enrolled 20 006 adult (≥18 years) patients from 466 hospitals in 61 countries with 15 cancer types, who had a decision for curative surgery during the COVID-19 pandemic and were followed up until the point of surgery or cessation of follow-up (Aug 31, 2020). Average national Oxford COVID-19 Stringency Index scores were calculated to define the government response to COVID-19 for each patient for the period they awaited surgery, and classified into light restrictions (index 60). The primary outcome was the non-operation rate (defined as the proportion of patients who did not undergo planned surgery). Cox proportional-hazards regression models were used to explore the associations between lockdowns and non-operation. Intervals from diagnosis to surgery were compared across COVID-19 government response index groups. This study was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04384926. Findings: Of eligible patients awaiting surgery, 2003 (10·0%) of 20 006 did not receive surgery after a median follow-up of 23 weeks (IQR 16-30), all of whom had a COVID-19-related reason given for non-operation. Light restrictions were associated with a 0·6% non-operation rate (26 of 4521), moderate lockdowns with a 5·5% rate (201 of 3646; adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 0·81, 95% CI 0·77-0·84; p<0·0001), and full lockdowns with a 15·0% rate (1775 of 11 827; HR 0·51, 0·50-0·53; p<0·0001). In sensitivity analyses, including adjustment for SARS-CoV-2 case notification rates, moderate lockdowns (HR 0·84, 95% CI 0·80-0·88; p<0·001), and full lockdowns (0·57, 0·54-0·60; p<0·001), remained independently associated with non-operation. Surgery beyond 12 weeks from diagnosis in patients without neoadjuvant therapy increased during lockdowns (374 [9·1%] of 4521 in light restrictions, 317 [10·4%] of 3646 in moderate lockdowns, 2001 [23·8%] of 11 827 in full lockdowns), although there were no differences in resectability rates observed with longer delays. Interpretation: Cancer surgery systems worldwide were fragile to lockdowns, with one in seven patients who were in regions with full lockdowns not undergoing planned surgery and experiencing longer preoperative delays. Although short-term oncological outcomes were not compromised in those selected for surgery, delays and non-operations might lead to long-term reductions in survival. During current and future periods of societal restriction, the resilience of elective surgery systems requires strengthening, which might include protected elective surgical pathways and long-term investment in surge capacity for acute care during public health emergencies to protect elective staff and services.
Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted routine hospital services globally. This study estimated the total number of adult elective operations that would be cancelled worldwide during the 12 weeks of peak disruption due to COVID-19. Methods: A global expert response study was conducted to elicit projections for the proportion of elective surgery that would be cancelled or postponed during the 12 weeks of peak disruption. A Bayesian β-regression model was used to estimate 12-week cancellation rates for 190 countries. Elective surgical case-mix data, stratified by specialty and indication (surgery for cancer versus benign disease), were determined. This case mix was applied to country-level surgical volumes. The 12-week cancellation rates were then applied to these figures to calculate the total number of cancelled operations. Results: The best estimate was that 28 404 603 operations would be cancelled or postponed during the peak 12 weeks of disruption due to COVID-19 (2 367 050 operations per week). Most would be operations for benign disease (90·2 per cent, 25 638 922 of 28 404 603). The overall 12-week cancellation rate would be 72·3 per cent. Globally, 81·7 per cent of operations for benign conditions (25 638 922 of 31 378 062), 37·7 per cent of cancer operations (2 324 070 of 6 162 311) and 25·4 per cent of elective caesarean sections (441 611 of 1 735 483) would be cancelled or postponed. If countries increased their normal surgical volume by 20 per cent after the pandemic, it would take a median of 45 weeks to clear the backlog of operations resulting from COVID-19 disruption. Conclusion: A very large number of operations will be cancelled or postponed owing to disruption caused by COVID-19. Governments should mitigate against this major burden on patients by developing recovery plans and implementing strategies to restore surgical activity safely.