Suchergebnisse

Dieser Bericht stellt ausgewählte Ergebnisse der Thünen-Baseline 2015 – 2025 sowie die zugrunde liegenden Annahmen dar. Für die Erstellung der Thünen-Baseline wurden mehrere agrarökonomische Modellen im Verbund eingesetzt. Die Projektionen beruhen auf den im Juli 2015 vorliegenden Daten und Informationen zur weltwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung. Die Thünen-Baseline geht von einer Beibehaltung der derzeitigen Agrarpolitik bzw. der Umsetzung bereits beschlossener Politikänderungen aus. Dargestellt werden Projektionsergebnisse für Agrarhandel, Preise, Nachfrage, Produktion, Einkommen und Umweltwirkungen. Die Darstellung der Ergebnisse konzentriert sich hauptsächlich auf die Entwicklungen des deutschen Agrarsektors im Vergleich zur Situation im Basisjahrzeitraum 2009 - 2011. Darüber hinaus widmet sich die Thünen-Baseline 2015 – 2025 in einem eigenständigen Kapitel den Auswirkungen der Kopplung von Direktzahlungen, die in allen EU-Mitgliedstaaten, mit Ausnahme von Deutschland, eingesetzt wird. In der Thünen-Baseline 2015 - 2025 tragen günstige Aussichten auf dem Weltagrarmarkt in Kombination mit einem schwachen Euro dazu bei, dass sich die Einkommen vieler Betriebe in Deutschland bis 2025 positiv entwickeln. Jedoch zeigt eine Variationsrechnung, die eine Wiederaufwertung des Euro unterstellt, wie stark gerade die exportorientierten Sektoren (wie z. B. Milch) von der Entwicklung gesamtwirtschaftlicher Kennzahlen abhängig sind. ; This report presents selected results of the Thünen Baseline 2015 – 2025 as well as the assumptions upon which these results are based. The Thünen Baseline is established using and combining several models of the Thünen model network. The baseline assumes a continuation of the current policy framework and the implementation of already decided policy changes. This report describes the outcome of model projections of agricultural trade, prices, production, income and environmental impacts. The presentation focuses on the development of the German agricultural sector compared to the base period 2009 - 2011. In addition, the Thünen Baseline 2015 – 2025 takes a closer look at the impacts of coupled payments, which have been implemented in all EU member states except Germany. In the Thünen Baseline 2015 - 2025, a favourable outlook for world agricultural markets in combination with a weak Euro contribute to the positive development of farm incomes in Germany. However, a sensitivity analysis, based on a scenario which assumes an appreciation of the Euro, highlights the extent to which export-oriented sectors (e.g., the milk sector) depend on macro-economic developments.

CONTEXT: Digitalisation affects the agri-food sector and its governance. However, what digitalisation of the sector will imply for future agricultural policymaking remains unclear. OBJECTIVE: The objective of the study is to develop and evaluate explorative scenarios of digitalisation in the agri-food sector of Europe that are explicitly relevant to agricultural policy. The study aims to provide guidance for strategic development of agricultural policy to address the potentials, uncertainties and unknowns arising with digitalisation of the sector. METHODS: We combine a Delphi study and a participatory scenario workshop to develop and evaluate plausible explorative scenarios of digitalisation of Europe's agri-food sector. For all scenarios we identify gaps in achieving a range of important European agricultural policy goals, drawing on the Delphi study and desk-based analysis. Subsequently we deduce strategies to address these agricultural policy gaps. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: Four scenarios of digitalisation of the agri-food sector were developed for Europe in 2030. They comprise of 1) digitalisation of the sector following current directions at current rates as a baseline scenario, 2) strong digitalisation of a regulatory government, 3) use of autonomous farming technology and 4) digitalised food business. These explorative scenarios entail various gaps in achieving European agricultural policy goals. Our findings suggest that the baseline scenario needs strategies to ramp up technological and institutional infrastructure for digitalisation. The other scenarios need strategies to prevent risks, e.g., of technological failures or undesired social impacts. They also need strategies to cater for special cases and diversity, e. g., of ecosystems and farming practices. Across the scenarios, it seems useful to increase digital competencies of the stakeholders. SIGNIFICANCE: The study is the first that derives implications for policy strategies from explorative scenarios of future digitalisation of agricultural systems that target gaps in achieving agricultural policy goals. The combination of developing and analysing scenarios generated findings that are of significance to policymaking stakeholders and researchers alike, who all need to address the uncertainties arising with future digitalisation of the agri-food sector.

CONTEXT Digitalisation affects the agri-food sector and its governance. However, what digitalisation of the sector will imply for future agricultural policymaking remains unclear. OBJECTIVE The objective of the study is to develop and evaluate explorative scenarios of digitalisation in the agri-food sector of Europe that are explicitly relevant to agricultural policy. The study aims to provide guidance for strategic development of agricultural policy to address the potentials, uncertainties and unknowns arising with digitalisation of the sector. METHODS We combine a Delphi study and a participatory scenario workshop to develop and evaluate plausible explorative scenarios of digitalisation of Europe's agri-food sector. For all scenarios we identify gaps in achieving a range of important European agricultural policy goals, drawing on the Delphi study and desk-based analysis. Subsequently we deduce strategies to address these agricultural policy gaps. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS Four scenarios of digitalisation of the agri-food sector were developed for Europe in 2030. They comprise of 1) digitalisation of the sector following current directions at current rates as a baseline scenario, 2) strong digitalisation of a regulatory government, 3) use of autonomous farming technology and 4) digitalised food business. These explorative scenarios entail various gaps in achieving European agricultural policy goals. Our findings suggest that the baseline scenario needs strategies to ramp up technological and institutional infrastructure for digitalisation. The other scenarios need strategies to prevent risks, e.g., of technological failures or undesired social impacts. They also need strategies to cater for special cases and diversity, e.g., of ecosystems and farming practices. Across the scenarios, it seems useful to increase digital competencies of the stakeholders. SIGNIFICANCE The study is the first that derives implications for policy strategies from explorative scenarios of future digitalisation of agricultural systems that ...

CONTEXT Digitalisation affects the agri-food sector and its governance. However, what digitalisation of the sector will imply for future agricultural policymaking remains unclear. OBJECTIVE The objective of the study is to develop and evaluate explorative scenarios of digitalisation in the agri-food sector of Europe that are explicitly relevant to agricultural policy. The study aims to provide guidance for strategic development of agricultural policy to address the potentials, uncertainties and unknowns arising with digitalisation of the sector. METHODS We combine a Delphi study and a participatory scenario workshop to develop and evaluate plausible explorative scenarios of digitalisation of Europe's agri-food sector. For all scenarios we identify gaps in achieving a range of important European agricultural policy goals, drawing on the Delphi study and desk-based analysis. Subsequently we deduce strategies to address these agricultural policy gaps. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS Four scenarios of digitalisation of the agri-food sector were developed for Europe in 2030. They comprise of 1) digitalisation of the sector following current directions at current rates as a baseline scenario, 2) strong digitalisation of a regulatory government, 3) use of autonomous farming technology and 4) digitalised food business. These explorative scenarios entail various gaps in achieving European agricultural policy goals. Our findings suggest that the baseline scenario needs strategies to ramp up technological and institutional infrastructure for digitalisation. The other scenarios need strategies to prevent risks, e.g., of technological failures or undesired social impacts. They also need strategies to cater for special cases and diversity, e.g., of ecosystems and farming practices. Across the scenarios, it seems useful to increase digital competencies of the stakeholders. SIGNIFICANCE The study is the first that derives implications for policy strategies from explorative scenarios of future digitalisation of agricultural systems that ...

CONTEXT Digitalisation affects the agri-food sector and its governance. However, what digitalisation of the sector will imply for future agricultural policymaking remains unclear. OBJECTIVE The objective of the study is to develop and evaluate explorative scenarios of digitalisation in the agri-food sector of Europe that are explicitly relevant to agricultural policy. The study aims to provide guidance for strategic development of agricultural policy to address the potentials, uncertainties and unknowns arising with digitalisation of the sector. METHODS We combine a Delphi study and a participatory scenario workshop to develop and evaluate plausible explorative scenarios of digitalisation of Europe's agri-food sector. For all scenarios we identify gaps in achieving a range of important European agricultural policy goals, drawing on the Delphi study and desk-based analysis. Subsequently we deduce strategies to address these agricultural policy gaps. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS Four scenarios of digitalisation of the agri-food sector were developed for Europe in 2030. They comprise of 1) digitalisation of the sector following current directions at current rates as a baseline scenario, 2) strong digitalisation of a regulatory government, 3) use of autonomous farming technology and 4) digitalised food business. These explorative scenarios entail various gaps in achieving European agricultural policy goals. Our findings suggest that the baseline scenario needs strategies to ramp up technological and institutional infrastructure for digitalisation. The other scenarios need strategies to prevent risks, e.g., of technological failures or undesired social impacts. They also need strategies to cater for special cases and diversity, e.g., of ecosystems and farming practices. Across the scenarios, it seems useful to increase digital competencies of the stakeholders. SIGNIFICANCE The study is the first that derives implications for policy strategies from explorative scenarios of future digitalisation of agricultural systems that target gaps in achieving agricultural policy goals. The combination of developing and analysing scenarios generated findings that are of significance to policymaking stakeholders and researchers alike, who all need to address the uncertainties arising with future digitalisation of the agri-food sector.

CONTEXT: Digitalisation affects the agri-food sector and its governance. However, what digitalisation of the sector will imply for future agricultural policymaking remains unclear. OBJECTIVE: The objective of the study is to develop and evaluate explorative scenarios of digitalisation in the agri-food sector of Europe that are explicitly relevant to agricultural policy. The study aims to provide guidance for strategic development of agricultural policy to address the potentials, uncertainties and unknowns arising with digitalisation of the sector. METHODS: We combine a Delphi study and a participatory scenario workshop to develop and evaluate plausible explorative scenarios of digitalisation of Europe's agri-food sector. For all scenarios we identify gaps in achieving a range of important European agricultural policy goals, drawing on the Delphi study and desk-based analysis. Subsequently we deduce strategies to address these agricultural policy gaps. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: Four scenarios of digitalisation of the agri-food sector were developed for Europe in 2030. They comprise of 1) digitalisation of the sector following current directions at current rates as a baseline scenario, 2) strong digitalisation of a regulatory government, 3) use of autonomous farming technology and 4) digitalised food business. These explorative scenarios entail various gaps in achieving European agricultural policy goals. Our findings suggest that the baseline scenario needs strategies to ramp up technological and institutional infrastructure for digitalisation. The other scenarios need strategies to prevent risks, e.g., of technological failures or undesired social impacts. They also need strategies to cater for special cases and diversity, e.g., of ecosystems and farming practices. Across the scenarios, it seems useful to increase digital competencies of the stakeholders. SIGNIFICANCE: The study is the first that derives implications for policy strategies from explorative scenarios of future digitalisation of agricultural systems ...

Accounting for more than half of the European Union's (EU) territory, agriculture ensures food production, manages important natural resources and supports socio-economic development of rural areas. Moreover, it is estimated that 50% of all plant and animal species (including some of that are listed in the EU Habitat Directive) depend on agricultural practices. The continuation of appropriate agricultural land management is essential to ensure these primary functions. Avoidance of farmland abandonment is therefore an important rationale for the EU's Common Agricultural Policy which requires improved knowledge of this phenomenon at the European level. This study assesses the risk of farmland abandonment in the 27 EU Member States. It summarizes the work performed by an expert panel of European scientists and national representatives which aimed to identify the main drivers of farmland abandonment in Europe, to define indicators for assessing its risk of occurrence and to test the value of European-wide data sources to achieve these aims. Drivers were identified under two rationales: low farm stability and viability, and negative regional context. Indicators were defined using recent socio-economic farm data and geospatial datasets. Some indicators were then combined to make a composite risk indicator. Regions with higher risk of farmland abandonment are located in Portugal, Spain, Italy, Greece, Latvia, Estonia, Finland, Sweden and Ireland. This paper demonstrates the challenges of performing a European-wide assessment of a phenomenon influenced by drivers whose effects vary at local levels. Other problems encountered are data heterogeneity in terms of spatial resolution and quality, as well as access to micro-data (local level data). High spatial resolution European datasets measuring farmland abandonment are needed to validate the defined indicators as well as to benchmark the methodology. Furthermore, such data could be used to establish a weighting system for the drivers.

Accounting for more than half of the European Union's (EU) territory, agriculture ensures food production, manages important natural resources and supports socio-economic development of rural areas. Moreover, it is estimated that 50% of all plant and animal species (including some of that are listed in the EU Habitat Directive) depend on agricultural practices. The continuation of appropriate agricultural land management is essential to ensure these primary functions. Avoidance of farmland abandonment is therefore an important rationale for the EU's Common Agricultural Policy which requires improved knowledge of this phenomenon at the European level. This study assesses the risk of farmland abandonment in the 27 EU Member States. It summarizes the work performed by an expert panel of European scientists and national representatives which aimed to identify the main drivers of farmland abandonment in Europe, to define indicators for assessing its risk of occurrence and to test the value of European-wide data sources to achieve these aims. Drivers were identified under two rationales: low farm stability and viability, and negative regional context. Indicators were defined using recent socio-economic farm data and geospatial datasets. Some indicators were then combined to make a composite risk indicator. Regions with higher risk of farmland abandonment are located in Portugal, Spain, Italy, Greece, Latvia, Estonia, Finland, Sweden and Ireland. This paper demonstrates the challenges of performing a European-wide assessment of a phenomenon influenced by drivers whose effects vary at local levels. Other problems encountered are data heterogeneity in terms of spatial resolution and quality, as well as access to micro-data (local level data). High spatial resolution European datasets measuring farmland abandonment are needed to validate the defined indicators as well as to benchmark the methodology. Furthermore, such data could be used to establish a weighting system for the drivers.

Dieser Bericht stellt ausgewählte Ergebnisse der Thünen-Baseline 2020 2030 sowie die zugrunde liegenden Annahmen dar. Die Thünen-Baseline beschreibt die erwarteten Entwicklungen auf den Agrarmärkten bei einer Beibehaltung der derzeitigen Agrarpolitik und Umsetzung bereits beschlossener Politikänderungen unter bestimmten Annahmen zur Entwicklung exogener Einflussfaktoren. Dabei beruhen die Berechnungen auf Daten und Informationen, die bis Februar 2020 vorlagen. Dargestellt werden Projektionsergebnisse für Agrarhandel, Preise, Nachfrage, Produktion, Einkommen und Umweltwirkungen. Die Darstellung der Ergebnisse konzentriert sich hauptsächlich auf die Entwicklungen des deutschen Agrarsektors im Vergleich zur Situation im Basisjahrzeitraum 2017-2019. Im pflanzlichen Sektor gewinnt der Anbau von Ölsaaten bis zum Jahr 2030 an Wettbewerbsfähigkeit und wird deutlich ausgedehnt, was vor allem auf stärkere Preis- und auch Ertragssteigerungen im Vergleich zu Getreide zurückzuführen ist. Mit Blick auf die Entwicklung im Fleischsektor lassen höhere Umwelt- und Tierwohlstandards erwarten, dass sich das Produktionswachstum der vergangenen Jahre abschwächt, insbesondere in der Schweinefleischerzeugung, wohingegen die Geflügelfleischerzeugung bis zum Jahr 2030 noch leicht wächst. Stabile Milchpreise und Milchviehbestände in Verbindung mit einer weiteren Steigerung der Milchleistung führen außerdem zu einem moderaten Anstieg der Milchanlieferungen. Das durchschnittliche reale Einkommen landwirtschaftlicher Betriebe entwickelt sich über die Produktionsperiode rückläufig, erreicht im Jahr 2030 aber immer noch das mittlere Niveau der letzten zehn Jahre. ; This report presents selected results of the Thünen-Baseline 2020-2030 as well as the assumptions underlying the projections. The Thünen-Baseline describes the expected developments of agricultural markets under given macro-economic conditions assuming no change in the current policy framework. Projections are based on the data and information available in February 2020. The report includes projection results on agricultural trade, prices, demand, production, income and environmental effects. The presentation of the results focuses mainly on the developments of the German agricultural sector up to the year 2030 compared to the average of the base period 2017-2019. With regard to the crops sector results show that oilseed cultivation is likely to be expanded by 2030. This is because the oilseed sector becomes more competitive relative to grains driven by a stronger increase in yields as well as prices. For the meat sector, higher environmental and animal welfare standards suggest that the growth in production observed over the past decades is likely to slow down, especially in the pigmeat sector, while poultry meat production is expected to still grow slightly over the projection period. Furthermore, stable milk prices and dairy herd populations combined with a further increase in milk yield are likely to result in a moderate increase in milk deliveries over the projection period. The average real income of agricultural farms is expected to decline slightly over the projection period. However, in 2030 agricultural farms still achieve an income equal to the average level observed over the last ten years.

Dieser Bericht stellt ausgewählte Ergebnisse der Thünen-Baseline 2020 2030 sowie die zugrunde liegenden Annahmen dar. Die Thünen-Baseline beschreibt die erwarteten Entwicklungen auf den Agrarmärkten bei einer Beibehaltung der derzeitigen Agrarpolitik und Umsetzung bereits beschlossener Politikänderungen unter bestimmten Annahmen zur Entwicklung exogener Einflussfaktoren. Dabei beruhen die Berechnungen auf Daten und Informationen, die bis Februar 2020 vorlagen. Dargestellt werden Projektionsergebnisse für Agrarhandel, Preise, Nachfrage, Produktion, Einkommen und Umweltwirkungen. Die Darstellung der Ergebnisse konzentriert sich hauptsächlich auf die Entwicklungen des deutschen Agrarsektors im Vergleich zur Situation im Basisjahrzeitraum 2017-2019. Im pflanzlichen Sektor gewinnt der Anbau von Ölsaaten bis zum Jahr 2030 an Wettbewerbsfähigkeit und wird deutlich ausgedehnt, was vor allem auf stärkere Preis- und auch Ertragssteigerungen im Vergleich zu Getreide zurückzuführen ist. Mit Blick auf die Entwicklung im Fleischsektor lassen höhere Umwelt- und Tierwohlstandards erwarten, dass sich das Produktionswachstum der vergangenen Jahre abschwächt, insbesondere in der Schweinefleischerzeugung, wohingegen die Geflügelfleischerzeugung bis zum Jahr 2030 noch leicht wächst. Stabile Milchpreise und Milchviehbestände in Verbindung mit einer weiteren Steigerung der Milchleistung führen außerdem zu einem moderaten Anstieg der Milchanlieferungen. Das durchschnittliche reale Einkommen landwirtschaftlicher Betriebe entwickelt sich über die Produktionsperiode rückläufig, erreicht im Jahr 2030 aber immer noch das mittlere Niveau der letzten zehn Jahre. ; This report presents selected results of the Thünen-Baseline 2020-2030 as well as the assumptions underlying the projections. The Thünen-Baseline describes the expected developments of agricultural markets under given macro-economic conditions assuming no change in the current policy framework. Projections are based on the data and information available in February 2020. The report includes projection results on agricultural trade, prices, demand, production, income and environmental effects. The presentation of the results focuses mainly on the developments of the German agricultural sector up to the year 2030 compared to the average of the base period 2017-2019. With regard to the crops sector results show that oilseed cultivation is likely to be expanded by 2030. This is because the oilseed sector becomes more competitive relative to grains driven by a stronger increase in yields as well as prices. For the meat sector, higher environmental and animal welfare standards suggest that the growth in production observed over the past decades is likely to slow down, especially in the pigmeat sector, while poultry meat production is expected to still grow slightly over the projection period. Furthermore, stable milk prices and dairy herd populations combined with a further increase in milk yield are likely to resul in a moderate increase in milk deliveries over the projection period. The average real income of agricultural farms is expected to decline slightly over the projection period. However, in 2030 agricultural farms still achieve an income equal to the average level observed over the last ten years.