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Experimental evidence in cognitive psychology and behavioral economics is transforming the way political science scholars think about how humans make decisions in areas of high complexity, uncertainty, and risk. Nearly all those studies utilize convenience samples of university students, but in the real world political elites actually make most pivotal political decisions such as threatening war or changing the course of economic policy. Highly experienced elites are more likely to exhibit the attributes of rational decision-making; and over the last fifteen years a wealth of studies suggest that such elites are likely to be more skilled in strategic bargaining than samples with less germane experience. However, elites are also more likely to suffer overconfidence, which degrades decision-making skills. We illustrate implications for political science with a case study of crisis bargaining between the US and North Korea. Variations in the experience of US elite decision-makers between 2002 and 2006 plausibly explain the large shift in US crisis signaling better than other rival hypotheses such as "Iraq fatigue." Beyond crisis bargaining other major political science theories might benefit from attention to the attributes of individual decision-makers.

AbstractOver a period of 18 months, the dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration of a series of four lakes in North Wales was measured monthly. The lake catchment profiles consisted of an upland thin peat/soil (Llyn Cwellyn), an upland thin peat/soil associated with an adjacent area of small bog (Llyn Teyrn), an upland blanket bog (Llyn Conwy), and large lowland fen and fertile agricultural area (Llyn Cefni). The results examine the indirect effect of temperature and precipitation on the DOC concentrations found in the lakes fed by the catchments. The lowest DOC of the four sites was observed for Llyn Teyrn, varying from 1.2 to 3.30 mg/L, and with the highest being recorded for Llyn Cefni (5.45–10.83 mg/L). Temperature and rainfall data were both collected. Correlations with the DOC exhibited significant relationships with temperature for three of the sampled lakes Cwellyn (r 0.490), Teyrn (r 0.640) and Cefni (r 0.472). Recomputation versus 30‐ and 60‐day temperature lag times improved the correlation coefficients. The data showed weak and insignificant correlations for DOC versus rainfall for the three lakes, but the upland lake, Llyn Conwy, with its blanket bog catchment, did not demonstrate any statistical correlation with temperature, although it did show a significant correlation for DOC versus rainfall (r 0.553, P < 0.05). Over the sampling period, although tentative relationships were found among temperature, rainfall and DOC levels, an indirect association tempered by site hydrology is suggested.

In 1986 a comprehensive study into the state of the art in Computer
Aided Production Management (CAPM) in UK industry commissioned by the
ACME (Application of Computers to Manufacturing Engineering) directorate
of the Science and Engineering Research Council (SERC) revealed a number
of deficiencies in existing CAPM systems and approaches. As a
consequence of this report, a number of specific sectors were identified
including the small company sector, large company sector, make to order
sector and the electronics sector. This article outlines the results of
the work of the research team engaged in developing a CAPM
implementation methodology for the electronics sector, which was the
largest of the ACME CAPM projects. The research team believe that the
results are equally applicable for CAPM implementation in other
manufacturing sectors.

AbstractResults of an audit study conducted during the 2016 election cycle demonstrate that bias toward Latinos observed during the 2012 election has persisted. In addition to replicating previous results, we show that Arab/Muslim Americans face an even greater barrier to communicating with local election officials, but we find no evidence of bias toward blacks. An innovation of our design allows us to measure whether e-mails were opened by recipients, which we argue provides a direct test of implicit discrimination. We find evidence of implicit bias toward Arab/Muslim senders only.

This is the final version of the article. Available from Wiley via the DOI in this record. ; Many genes increase coding capacity by alternate exon usage. The gene encoding the insect nicotinic acetylcholine receptor (nAChR) α6 subunit, target of the bio-insecticide spinosad, is one example of this and expands protein diversity via alternative splicing of mutually exclusive exons. Here, we show that spinosad resistance in the tomato leaf miner, Tuta absoluta is associated with aberrant regulation of splicing of Taα6 resulting in a novel form of insecticide resistance mediated by exon skipping. Sequencing of the α6 subunit cDNA from spinosad selected and unselected strains of T. absoluta revealed all Taα6 transcripts of the selected strain were devoid of exon 3, with comparison of genomic DNA and mRNA revealing this is a result of exon skipping. Exon skipping cosegregated with spinosad resistance in survival bioassays, and functional characterization of this alteration using modified human nAChR α7, a model of insect α6, demonstrated that exon 3 is essential for receptor function and hence spinosad sensitivity. DNA and RNA sequencing analyses suggested that exon skipping did not result from genetic alterations in intronic or exonic cis-regulatory elements, but rather was associated with a single epigenetic modification downstream of exon 3a, and quantitative changes in the expression of trans-acting proteins that have known roles in the regulation of alternative splicing. Our results demonstrate that the intrinsic capacity of the α6 gene to generate transcript diversity via alternative splicing can be readily exploited during the evolution of resistance and identifies exon skipping as a molecular alteration conferring insecticide resistance. ; We thank Tiago Matos and Rob Jacobson for providing the Spin strain and Bayer CropScience for providing the GA strain. The research leading to these results has received funding from the People Programme (Marie Curie Actions) of the European Union Seventh Framework Programme FP7/2007-2013/under REA grant agreement PIRSES-GA-2012 – 318246. This work was in part funded by a fellowship grant (BB/G023352/1) from the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council of the UK to Dr. Chris Bass and a PhD studentship award from the BBSRC which funded Madeleine Berger (grant number: 1096240).