Suchergebnisse

When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, the era of nuclear competition seemed to be at an end, and the US and Russia began to get rid of many weapons they had used to threaten each other for more than 40 years. In 1967, the size of the US nuclear arsenal peaked at 31,255 warheads, but by 2010, under the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty signed with Russia, the US had promised to deploy no more than 1,550. In June of this year, US Pres Barack Obama announced his intention to go even lower, to around 1,000 warheads -- a move that would leave the US with fewer nuclear weapons than at any time since 1953. Nuclear weapons are still the most potent military tools on Earth, and they will remain central to geopolitical competition. Adapted from the source document.

Why do nuclear weapons spread? Using new data on sensitive nuclear transfers, this article analyzes the determinants of nuclear proliferation. The author first describes a simple logic of the technical and strategic advantages that potential nuclear proliferators can gain by importing nuclear materials and technology from more advanced nuclear states. The author then shows that sensitive nuclear transfers are an important determinant of nuclear proliferation. In broader terms, the author find strong support for a supply-side approach to nuclear proliferation. States that are better able to produce nuclear weapons, due to either international assistance or domestic capacity, are more likely to do so.

Why do states provide sensitive nuclear assistance to nonnuclear weapon states, contributing to the international spread of nuclear weapons? Using a new data set on sensitive nuclear transfers, this article analyzes the determinants of sensitive nuclear assistance. I first describe a simple logic of the differential effects of nuclear proliferation, which I use to generate hypotheses about the conditions under which states provide sensitive nuclear assistance. I then show that the strategic characteristics of the potential nuclear suppliers are the most important determinants of sensitive nuclear assistance. Explanations that emphasize the importance of economic motivations do not find support in the data. This article presents a new approach to the study of the spread of nuclear weapons, focusing on the supply side of nuclear proliferation.