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The aim of Heat Roadmap Europe 4 (HRE4) is to create the scientific evidence required to support the decarbonisation of the heating and cooling sector in Europe and to redesign this sector by combining the knowledge of local heating markets, potential savings and energy system analysis. In particular, HRE4 aims to develop low-carbon heating and cooling strategies, called Heat Roadmaps, for 14 European Union member states (including Finland) and allow for a better understanding and more accurate quantification of the European heating and cooling sector. The project covers countries equivalent to 90% of the European heat demands. Key to the project is the combination of mapping and energy system modelling, in order to be able to understand not just the system effects of energy efficiency but also the spatial dimension. Therefore, the approach in HRE4 brings together energy system analysis with spatial planning tools and provides an in-depth understanding of thermal demands in built environment and industry, including both heating and cooling. HRE4 involves the most detailed spatial mapping of heat demands and renewable heat resources up to date; includes the potential for reducing heat demands through costefficient energy efficiency measures in both the heating and the cooling sector; integrates industrial sectors to quantify heat demands; and models both long term projections and hour-by-hour energy systems. In addition to this report, which described the specific findings and Heat Roadmap for Finland, a variety of tools, methodologies and datasets have been developed in the context of the HRE4 project which are available at www.heatroadmap.eu and can provide further detail and background: - A final report presenting the heating and cooling scenarios in HRE4, and 14 country reports. - An updated version of the Pan-European Thermal Atlas, including Finland. - An interactive dataset on the profiles for heating and cooling demands in Europe, breaking down the heating and cooling sector by demand type, sector, industry, and temperature, including for Finland. - 56 freely available energy system simulation models (including 4 for Finland), and an interactive dataset showing some of the key results. - Deliverables on the methodologies, data, and capacity-building activities related to the HRE4 project.

The aim of Heat Roadmap Europe 4 (HRE4) is to create the scientific evidence required to support the decarbonisation of the heating and cooling sector in Europe and to redesign this sector by combining the knowledge of local heating markets, potential savings and energy system analysis. In particular, HRE4 aims to develop low-carbon heating and cooling strategies, called Heat Roadmaps, for 14 European Union member states (including Germany) and allow for a better understanding and more accurate quantification of the European heating and cooling sector. The project covers countries equivalent to 90% of the European heat demands. Key to the project is the combination of mapping and energy system modelling, in order to be able to understand not just the system effects of energy efficiency but also the spatial dimension. Therefore, the approach in HRE4 brings together energy system analysis with spatial planning tools and provides an in-depth understanding of thermal demands in built environment and industry, including both heating and cooling. HRE4 involves the most detailed spatial mapping of heat demands and renewable heat resources up to date; includes the potential for reducing heat demands through costefficient energy efficiency measures in both the heating and the cooling sector; integrates industrial sectors to quantify heat demands; and models both long term projections and hour-by-hour energy systems. In addition to this report, which described the specific findings and Heat Roadmap for Germany, a variety of tools, methodologies and datasets have been developed in the context of the HRE4 project which are available at www.heatroadmap.eu and can provide further detail and background: - A final report presenting the heating and cooling scenarios in HRE4, and 14 country reports. - An updated version of the Pan-European Thermal Atlas, including Germany. - An interactive dataset on the profiles for heating and cooling demands in Europe, breaking down the heating and cooling sector by demand type, sector, industry, and temperature, including for Germany. - 56 freely available energy system simulation models (including 4 for Germany), and an interactive dataset showing some of the key results. - Deliverables on the methodologies, data, and capacity-building activities related to the HRE4 project.

The aim of Heat Roadmap Europe 4 (HRE4) is to create the scientific evidence required to support the decarbonisation of the heating and cooling sector in Europe and to redesign this sector by combining the knowledge of local heating markets, potential savings and energy system analysis. In particular, HRE4 aims to develop low-carbon heating and cooling strategies, called Heat Roadmaps, for 14 European Union member states (including Hungary) and allow for a better understanding and more accurate quantification of the European heating and cooling sector. The project covers countries equivalent to 90% of the European heat demands. Key to the project is the combination of mapping and energy system modelling, in order to be able to understand not just the system effects of energy efficiency but also the spatial dimension. Therefore, the approach in HRE4 brings together energy system analysis with spatial planning tools and provides an in-depth understanding of thermal demands in built environment and industry, including both heating and cooling. HRE4 involves the most detailed spatial mapping of heat demands and renewable heat resources up to date; includes the potential for reducing heat demands through costefficient energy efficiency measures in both the heating and the cooling sector; integrates industrial sectors to quantify heat demands; and models both long term projections and hour-by-hour energy systems. In addition to this report, which described the specific findings and Heat Roadmap for Hungary, a variety of tools, methodologies and datasets have been developed in the context of the HRE4 project which are available at www.heatroadmap.eu and can provide further detail and background: • A final report presenting the heating and cooling scenarios in HRE4, and 14 country reports. • An updated version of the Pan-European Thermal Atlas, including Hungary. • An interactive dataset on the profiles for heating and cooling demands in Europe, breaking down the heating and cooling sector by demand type, sector, industry, and temperature, including for Hungary. • 56 freely available energy system simulation models (including 4 for Hungary), and an interactive dataset showing some of the key results. • Deliverables on the methodologies, data, and capacity-building activities related to the HRE4 project.

The aim of Heat Roadmap Europe 4 (HRE4) is to create the scientific evidence required to support the decarbonisation of the heating and cooling sector in Europe and to redesign this sector by combining the knowledge of local heating markets, potential savings and energy system analysis. In particular, HRE4 aims to develop low-carbon heating and cooling strategies, called Heat Roadmaps, for 14 European Union member states (including Italy) and allow for a better understanding and more accurate quantification of the European heating and cooling sector. The project covers countries equivalent to 90% of the European heat demands. Key to the project is the combination of mapping and energy system modelling, in order to be able to understand not just the system effects of energy efficiency but also the spatial dimension. Therefore, the approach in HRE4 brings together energy system analysis with spatial planning tools and provides an in-depth understanding of thermal demands in built environment and industry, including both heating and cooling. HRE4 involves the most detailed spatial mapping of heat demands and renewable heat resources up to date; includes the potential for reducing heat demands through costefficient energy efficiency measures in both the heating and the cooling sector; integrates industrial sectors to quantify heat demands; and models both long term projections and hour-by-hour energy systems. In addition to this report, which described the specific findings and Heat Roadmap for Italy, a variety of tools, methodologies and datasets have been developed in the context of the HRE4 project which are available at www.heatroadmap.eu and can provide further detail and background: • A final report presenting the heating and cooling scenarios in HRE4, and 14 country reports. • An updated version of the Pan-European Thermal Atlas, including Italy. • An interactive dataset on the profiles for heating and cooling demands in Europe, breaking down the heating and cooling sector by demand type, sector, industry, and temperature, including for Italy. • 56 freely available energy system simulation models (including 4 for Italy), and an interactive dataset showing some of the key results. • Deliverables on the methodologies, data, and capacity-building activities related to the HRE4 project.

The aim of Heat Roadmap Europe 4 (HRE4) is to create the scientific evidence required to support the decarbonisation of the heating and cooling sector in Europe and to redesign this sector by combining the knowledge of local heating markets, potential savings and energy system analysis. In particular, HRE4 aims to develop low-carbon heating and cooling strategies, called Heat Roadmaps, for 14 European Union member states (including Sweden) and allow for a better understanding and more accurate quantification of the European heating and cooling sector. The project covers countries equivalent to 90% of the European heat demands. Key to the project is the combination of mapping and energy system modelling, in order to be able to understand not just the system effects of energy efficiency but also the spatial dimension. Therefore, the approach in HRE4 brings together energy system analysis with spatial planning tools and provides an in-depth understanding of thermal demands in built environment and industry, including both heating and cooling. HRE4 involves the most detailed spatial mapping of heat demands and renewable heat resources up to date; includes the potential for reducing heat demands through costefficient energy efficiency measures in both the heating and the cooling sector; integrates industrial sectors to quantify heat demands; and models both long term projections and hour-by-hour energy systems. In addition to this report, which described the specific findings and Heat Roadmap for Sweden, a variety of tools, methodologies and datasets have been developed in the context of the HRE4 project which are available at www.heatroadmap.eu and can provide further detail and background: • A final report presenting the heating and cooling scenarios in HRE4, and 14 country reports. • An updated version of the Pan-European Thermal Atlas, including Sweden. • An interactive dataset on the profiles for heating and cooling demands in Europe, breaking down the heating and cooling sector by demand type, sector, industry, and temperature, including for Sweden. • 56 freely available energy system simulation models (including 4 for Sweden), and an interactive dataset showing some of the key results. • Deliverables on the methodologies, data, and capacity-building activities related to the HRE4 project.

The aim of Heat Roadmap Europe 4 (HRE4) is to create the scientific evidence required to support the decarbonisation of the heating and cooling sector in Europe and to redesign this sector by combining the knowledge of local heating markets, potential savings and energy system analysis. In particular, HRE4 aims to develop low-carbon heating and cooling strategies, called Heat Roadmaps, for 14 European Union member states (including the Netherlands) and allow for a better understanding and more accurate quantification of the European heating and cooling sector. The project covers countries equivalent to 90% of the European heat demands. Key to the project is the combination of mapping and energy system modelling, in order to be able to understand not just the system effects of energy efficiency but also the spatial dimension. Therefore, the approach in HRE4 brings together energy system analysis with spatial planning tools and provides an in-depth understanding of thermal demands in built environment and industry, including both heating and cooling. HRE4 involves the most detailed spatial mapping of heat demands and renewable heat resources up to date; includes the potential for reducing heat demands through costefficient energy efficiency measures in both the heating and the cooling sector; integrates industrial sectors to quantify heat demands; and models both long term projections and hour-by-hour energy systems. In addition to this report, which described the specific findings and Heat Roadmap for the Netherlands, a variety of tools, methodologies and datasets have been developed in the context of the HRE4 project which are available at www.heatroadmap.eu and can provide further detail and background: • A final report presenting the heating and cooling scenarios in HRE4, and 14 country reports. • An updated version of the Pan-European Thermal Atlas, including the Netherlands. • An interactive dataset on the profiles for heating and cooling demands in Europe, breaking down the heating and cooling sector by demand type, sector, industry, and temperature, including for the Netherlands. • 56 freely available energy system simulation models (including 4 for the Netherlands), and an interactive dataset showing some of the key results. • Deliverables on the methodologies, data, and capacity-building activities related to the HRE4 project.

The aim of Heat Roadmap Europe 4 (HRE4) is to create the scientific evidence required to support the decarbonisation of the heating and cooling sector in Europe and to redesign this sector by combining the knowledge of local heating markets, potential savings and energy system analysis. In particular, HRE4 aims to develop low-carbon heating and cooling strategies, called Heat Roadmaps, for 14 European Union member states (including Romania) and allow for a better understanding and more accurate quantification of the European heating and cooling sector. The project covers countries equivalent to 90% of the European heat demands. Key to the project is the combination of mapping and energy system modelling, in order to be able to understand not just the system effects of energy efficiency but also the spatial dimension. Therefore, the approach in HRE4 brings together energy system analysis with spatial planning tools and provides an in-depth understanding of thermal demands in built environment and industry, including both heating and cooling. HRE4 involves the most detailed spatial mapping of heat demands and renewable heat resources up to date; includes the potential for reducing heat demands through costefficient energy efficiency measures in both the heating and the cooling sector; integrates industrial sectors to quantify heat demands; and models both long term projections and hour-by-hour energy systems. In addition to this report, which described the specific findings and Heat Roadmap for Romania, a variety of tools, methodologies and datasets have been developed in the context of the HRE4 project which are available at www.heatroadmap.eu and can provide further detail and background: • A final report presenting the heating and cooling scenarios in HRE4, and 14 country reports. • An updated version of the Pan-European Thermal Atlas, including Romania. • An interactive dataset on the profiles for heating and cooling demands in Europe, breaking down the heating and cooling sector by demand type, sector, industry, and temperature, including for Romania. • 56 freely available energy system simulation models (including 4 for Romania), and an interactive dataset showing some of the key results. • Deliverables on the methodologies, data, and capacity-building activities related to the HRE4 project.

The aim of Heat Roadmap Europe 4 (HRE4) is to create the scientific evidence required to support the decarbonisation of the heating and cooling sector in Europe and to redesign this sector by combining the knowledge of local heating markets, potential savings and energy system analysis. In particular, HRE4 aims to develop low-carbon heating and cooling strategies, called Heat Roadmaps, for 14 European Union member states (including the Czech Republic) and allow for a better understanding and more accurate quantification of the European heating and cooling sector. The project covers countries equivalent to 90% of the European heat demands. Key to the project is the combination of mapping and energy system modelling, in order to be able to understand not just the system effects of energy efficiency but also the spatial dimension. Therefore, the approach in HRE4 brings together energy system analysis with spatial planning tools and provides an in-depth understanding of thermal demands in built environment and industry, including both heating and cooling. HRE4 involves the most detailed spatial mapping of heat demands and renewable heat resources up to date; includes the potential for reducing heat demands through costefficient energy efficiency measures in both the heating and the cooling sector; integrates industrial sectors to quantify heat demands; and models both long term projections and hour-by-hour energy systems. In addition to this report, which described the specific findings and Heat Roadmap for the Czech Republic, a variety of tools, methodologies and datasets have been developed in the context of the HRE4 project which are available at www.heatroadmap.eu and can provide further detail and background: - A final report presenting the heating and cooling scenarios in HRE4, and 14 country reports. - An updated version of the Pan-European Thermal Atlas, including the Czech Republic. - An interactive dataset on the profiles for heating and cooling demands in Europe, breaking down the heating and cooling sector by demand type, sector, industry, and temperature, including for the Czech Republic. - 56 freely available energy system simulation models (including 4 for the Czech Republic), and an interactive dataset showing some of the key results. - Deliverables on the methodologies, data, and capacity-building activities related to the HRE4 project.

The aim of Heat Roadmap Europe (HRE) is to create the scientific evidence required to effectively support the decarbonisation of the heating and cooling sector in Europe and democratise the debate about the sector. This HRE project is the 4 th in a series of analyses that combines local (geographic) data with knowledge on energy savings and detailed all sector hour-by-hour energy system analysis. The project covers 90% of the European heat market by modelling 14 countries and their energy systems individually, allowing for an insight towards the overall European perspective. Together, heating and cooling represent the largest energy sector today, but by redesigning the energy systems in Europe using only proven and market available technologies, it is possible to combine end-use savings with heat pumps and district heating and cooling using excess heat, efficiency and renewable sources to stay within the 1,5 - 2°C global temperature change threshold. To decarbonise and reduce energy system costs, fossil fuel consumption is replaced with energy efficiency and renewable energy. This has the potential to significantly improve the balance of payments compared to today and create more jobs in Europe when increasing expenditures on local energy efficiency and use of local resources [1]. It also creates a heat supply which more resilient to fuel price fluctuations, as more expenses are tied to investments. The scenario development in HRE makes it evident that by 2050: - CO2 emissions can be reduced by 4.340 Mton or 86% compared to 1990 using only known technology in the heating and cooling sector. This is in line with the Paris Agreement and approaches a nearly zero carbon energy system. - By redesigning the heating and cooling sector the total costs of decarbonisation can be reduced by 6% annually compared to conventional methods of decarbonisation. In all future scenarios less financial resources are spent on fuels and more on investments. - The use of fossil fuels in HRE can be reduced by almost 10.400 TWh in 2050 compared to the 2015 reference. This also influences the amount of investments needed and balance of payments. HRE would heavily reduce the need for natural gas imports. The amount of natural gas decreases in HRE 2050 by about 87% compared to the 2015 reference, the remainder only being used in industry and flexible combined heat and power. In 2016 54% of the energy consumption was met by imports, 88% of oil was imported and 70% of the consumed natural gas was imported [2]. The imported natural gas had a value of €50-65 billion in 016. - Natural gas and inefficient electric heating in buildings can be phased out. Such solutions can be replaced by a combination of refurbishment and end use savings, individual heat pumps and district heating using excess heat and heat from renewable sources. Since renewable energy covers 87% of the total primary energy supply in HRE, and the remaining fossil fuels are primarily in transport, industry, and flexible combined heat and power, almost all of the heating and cooling demands is covered sustainably. - The solutions proposed are in line with the Smart Energy System approach enabling a conversion towards 100% renewable energy [3].

The aim of Heat Roadmap Europe 4 (HRE4) is to create the scientific evidence required to support the decarbonisation of the heating and cooling sector in Europe and to redesign this sector by combining the knowledge of local heating markets, potential savings and energy system analysis. In particular, HRE4 aims to develop low-carbon heating and cooling strategies, called Heat Roadmaps, for 14 European Union member states (including Spain) and allow for a better understanding and more accurate quantification of the European heating and cooling sector. The project covers countries equivalent to 90% of the European heat demands. Key to the project is the combination of mapping and energy system modelling, in order to be able to understand not just the system effects of energy efficiency but also the spatial dimension. Therefore, the approach in HRE4 brings together energy system analysis with spatial planning tools and provides an in-depth understanding of thermal demands in built environment and industry, including both heating and cooling. HRE4 involves the most detailed spatial mapping of heat demands and renewable heat resources up to date; includes the potential for reducing heat demands through costefficient energy efficiency measures in both the heating and the cooling sector; integrates industrial sectors to quantify heat demands; and models both long term projections and hour-by-hour energy systems. In addition to this report, which described the specific findings and Heat Roadmap for Spain, a variety of tools, methodologies and datasets have been developed in the context of the HRE4 project which are available at www.heatroadmap.eu and can provide further detail and background: • A final report presenting the heating and cooling scenarios in HRE4, and 14 country reports. • An updated version of the Pan-European Thermal Atlas, including Spain. • An interactive dataset on the profiles for heating and cooling demands in Europe, breaking down the heating and cooling sector by demand type, sector, industry, and temperature, including for Spain. • 56 freely available energy system simulation models (including 4 for Spain), and an interactive dataset showing some of the key results. • Deliverables on the methodologies, data, and capacity-building activities related to the HRE4 project.

The aim of Heat Roadmap Europe 4 (HRE4) is to create the scientific evidence required to support the decarbonisation of the heating and cooling sector in Europe and to redesign this sector by combining the knowledge of local heating markets, potential savings and energy system analysis. In particular, HRE4 aims to develop low-carbon heating and cooling strategies, called Heat Roadmaps, for 14 European Union member states (including France) and allow for a better understanding and more accurate quantification of the European heating and cooling sector. The project covers countries equivalent to 90% of the European heat demands. Key to the project is the combination of mapping and energy system modelling, in order to be able to understand not just the system effects of energy efficiency but also the spatial dimension. Therefore, the approach in HRE4 brings together energy system analysis with spatial planning tools and provides an in-depth understanding of thermal demands in built environment and industry, including both heating and cooling. HRE4 involves the most detailed spatial mapping of heat demands and renewable heat resources up to date; includes the potential for reducing heat demands through costefficient energy efficiency measures in both the heating and the cooling sector; integrates industrial sectors to quantify heat demands; and models both long term projections and hour-by-hour energy systems. In addition to this report, which described the specific findings and Heat Roadmap for France, a variety of tools, methodologies and datasets have been developed in the context of the HRE4 project which are available at www.heatroadmap.eu and can provide further detail and background: - A final report presenting the heating and cooling scenarios in HRE4, and 14 country reports. - An updated version of the Pan-European Thermal Atlas, including France. - An interactive dataset on the profiles for heating and cooling demands in Europe, breaking down the heating and cooling sector by demand type, sector, industry, and temperature, including for France. - 56 freely available energy system simulation models (including 4 for France), and an interactive dataset showing some of the key results. - Deliverables on the methodologies, data, and capacity-building activities related to the HRE4 project.

The aim of Heat Roadmap Europe 4 (HRE4) is to create the scientific evidence required to support the decarbonisation of the heating and cooling sector in Europe and to redesign this sector by combining the knowledge of local heating markets, potential savings and energy system analysis. In particular, HRE4 aims to develop low-carbon heating and cooling strategies, called Heat Roadmaps, for 14 European Union member states (including Belgium) and allow for a better understanding and more accurate quantification of the European heating and cooling sector. The project covers countries equivalent to 90% of the European heat demands. Key to the project is the combination of mapping and energy system modelling, in order to be able to understand not just the system effects of energy efficiency but also the spatial dimension. Therefore, the approach in HRE4 brings together energy system analysis with spatial planning tools and provides an in-depth understanding of thermal demands in built environment and industry, including both heating and cooling. HRE4 involves the most detailed spatial mapping of heat demands and renewable heat resources up to date; includes the potential for reducing heat demands through costefficient energy efficiency measures in both the heating and the cooling sector; integrates industrial sectors to quantify heat demands; and models both long term projections and hour-by-hour energy systems. In addition to this report, which described the specific findings and Heat Roadmap for Belgium, a variety of tools, methodologies and datasets have been developed in the context of the HRE4 project which are available at www.heatroadmap.eu and can provide further detail and background: - A final report presenting the heating and cooling scenarios in HRE4, and 14 country reports. - An updated version of the Pan-European Thermal Atlas, including Belgium. - An interactive dataset on the profiles for heating and cooling demands in Europe, breaking down the heating and cooling sector by demand type, sector, industry, and temperature, including for Belgium. - 56 freely available energy system simulation models (including 4 for Belgium), and an interactive dataset showing some of the key results. - Deliverables on the methodologies, data, and capacity-building activities related to the HRE4 project.

Heat Roadmap Europe 3 is from work package 2 of the STRATEGO project (http://stratego-project.eu/). It quantifies the impact of implementing various energy efficiency measures in the heating and cooling sectors of five EU Member States: Czech Republic, Croatia, Italy, Romania, and the United Kingdom. These countries vary considerably in terms of population, climate, resources, and energy supply, so the key results, conclusions, and recommendations presented in this report can inform national energy policy across all of Europe. The results from this study indicate that a total investment of approximately €1.1 trillion in energy efficiency measures across all five of these countries, between 2010 and 2050, will save enough fuel to reduce the costs of their energy systems. After considering both the initial investment and the resulting savings, the total annual cost of the heating, cooling, and electricity sectors is reduced by an average of ~15% in each country. These initial investments are primarily required in heat savings for the buildings, district heating in urban areas, and electric heat pumps in rural areas. In essence, energy efficiency measures in the heating sector will enable EU Member States to simultaneously reduce energy demand, imported fossil fuels, carbon dioxide emissions, and the cost of the heating, cooling, and electricity sectors.

Europe's capacity to explore the envisaged pathways that achieve its near- and long-term energy and climate objectives needs to be significantly enhanced. In this perspective, we discuss how this capacity is supported by energy and climate-economy models, and how international modelling teams are organised within structured communication channels and consortia as well as coordinate multi-model analyses to provide robust scientific evidence. Noting the lack of such a dedicated channel for the highly active yet currently fragmented European modelling landscape, we highlight the importance of transparency of modelling capabilities and processes, harmonisation of modelling parameters, disclosure of input and output datasets, interlinkages among models of different geographic granularity, and employment of models that transcend the highly harmonised core of tools used in model inter-comparisons. Finally, drawing from the COVID-19 pandemic, we discuss the need to expand the modelling comfort zone, by exploring extreme scenarios, disruptive innovations, and questions that transcend the energy and climate goals across the sustainability spectrum. A comprehensive and comprehensible multi-model framework offers a real example of "collective" science diplomacy, as an instrument to further support the ambitious goals of the EU Green Deal, in compliance with the EU claim to responsible research. ; This work was supported by the H2020 European Commission Projects "PARIS REINFORCE" under Grant Agreement No. 820846, "LOCOMOTION" under Grant Agreement No. 821105, "SENTINEL" under Grant Agreement No. 837089, and "NAVIGATE" under Grant Agreement No. 821124. The sole responsibility for the content of this paper lies with the authors; the paper does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the European Commission.