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The extraction and processing of unconventional oil is more energy intensive and has larger negative environmental impacts than the extraction of conventional oil. The European Union (EU) estimates that oil sands lead to 22% more emissions than conventional oil. The EU is very concerned by the potential climate and environmental impacts and has considered introducing a tax on imported unconventional oil in order to discourage its production. This study shows that a global ban on the use of unconventional oil substantially reduces global carbon dioxide emissions, but the policy is not efficient. A unilateral ban of the EU on unconventional oil has no climate benefits and it is expensive for Europe.

AbstractThis paper examines future energy and emissions scenarios in China generated by the Integrated Assessment Model WITCH. A Business-as-Usual scenario is compared with five scenarios in which greenhouse gases emissions are taxed, at different levels. The elasticity of China's emissions is estimated by pooling observations from all scenarios and comparing them with the elasticity of emissions in OECD countries. China has a higher elasticity than the OECD for a carbon tax lower than US$50 per ton of CO2-eq. For higher taxes, emissions in OECD economies are more elastic than in China. Our best guess indicates that China would need to introduce a tax equal to about US$750 per ton of CO2-eq in 2050 to achieve the Major Economies Forum goal set for mid-century. In our preferred estimates, the discounted cost of following the 2°C trajectory is equal to 5.4 per cent and to 2.7 per cent of GDP in China and the OECD, respectively.