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The objective of this paper is to model a new incentive structure for government activities that rewards cost-savings and efficiencies. The model combines "cost-based pricing" (see Pavia [1995]) with the popular business practice of "gain-sharing" (see Welbourne & Mejia [1995]), and a new incentive program we call "success-sharing".

Locally owned firms need to develop their technological capabilities since accumulating firm-level capabilities is one of the most fundamental factors needed for structural change and economic development in African countries. However, building technological capabilities usually involves costly and risky investment with uncertain outcomes. Therefore, it is not usually appealing for local firms to invest in learning and develop their capabilities unless they are incentivised and compelled by the external environment. Firm-level capability building is the result of an interactive process between the internal learning effort of firms and their external environment, but African-owned firms usually face an unfavourable external environment with widespread market failures and few supporting institutions, which increase the learning costs and the uncertainties of a return on investment. As a result, the firms usually have low technological capabilities, which in turn makes it harder for these firms to acquire, absorb and adapt the foreign knowledge required for foreign direct investment spillovers and upgrading in global value chains to occur. Despite the difficult circumstances, locally owned firms in some African countries manage to compete in global value chains, but there is limited knowledge on how those firms became internationally competitive through investing in learning and building capabilities, how they relate to foreign firms and global value chain actors, and whether they try and are able to move into higher value activities within global value chains. In order to contribute to filling this gap in literature, the thesis investigates under which conditions Ethiopian-owned firms in the floriculture export sector invest in building their technological capabilities, considering the national institutional context and floriculture global value chain dynamics in which firms operate. Methodologically, the thesis combines the technological capabilities and global value chain approaches in order to identify more precisely what kind of capabilities are required to enter, remain competitive and upgrade within floriculture global value chains. It uses a uniquely designed firm-level survey to collect the data used to measure the capabilities of Ethiopian floriculture firms, and uses data collected through a firm history method to examine the factors influencing whether and how firms invest in learning. The findings show that local firms' initial investment in the Ethiopian floriculture export sector was mainly incentivised by government industrial policy, while a Dutch development program played an important but less prominent role. Systems of innovation, foreign direct investment spillovers, global value chain governance, and the Dutch development program served as sources of knowledge and catalysed learning to various degrees. Nevertheless, firms' learning efforts were influenced initially by sector specific characteristics, such as the Dutch auction offering relatively attractive rewards, the inherent narrow margin for failure that exists in the sector, and the absence of a significant domestic market for cut-flowers. However, firms' further learning efforts and subsequently their level of technological capabilities was driven mainly by firm-specific characteristics, such as the owner's perception of risk and reward about the export sector as well as in relation to their diversified business groups. Most of the Ethiopian floriculture firms had other business, and they made calculations of risk and reward about the diversified business group as a whole, which shaped their effort in relation to their flower export firm. A key contribution of the thesis is that it distinguishes conceptually three dimensions of local firms' technological capability building process: incentivizing firms' initial investment, sources of knowledge or expanding knowledge sources locally and catalysing learning, and compelling firms' learning effort. In reality, the three dimensions of TC building process are interactive and may not be separable from each other, but the conceptual distinction is important in order to provide a more nuanced view about how firms' learning takes place and more specifically how national and global factors influence firms' TC building process through shaping one or more of the three dimensions. These three dimensions can be useful in assessing processes of learning and firms' TC building in other sectors as well as contexts. The key factors that shaped firm-level capability building processes in the Ethiopia floriculture export case are industrial policy, national innovation systems, foreign direct investment spillovers, global value chain governance, a Dutch development program as well as firm specific characteristics. Thus, the thesis confirms much of the existing arguments in the literature in relation to these key factors, but it also elaborates on the causal mechanisms, refining our knowledge on these processes and how they work in a less developed African country such as Ethiopia. In particular, the thesis highlights the success and failures of the industrial policy of Ethiopian floriculture as lessons for policy makers in Ethiopia and other African as well as other low-income countries. It also discusses the role of the Dutch development program as a unique factor, not conceptualized in the literature, as the Dutch program was driven by both development cooperation objectives and the economic interest of the Dutch auction, making it a hybrid that has characteristics of a global value chain actor and a kind of government industrial policy financed by foreign aid. This finding points to opportunities for alternative forms of support for local firm learning. ; Locally owned firms need to develop their technological capabilities since accumulating firm-level capabilities is one of the most fundamental factors needed for structural change and economic development in African countries. However, building technological capabilities usually involves costly and risky investment with uncertain outcomes. Therefore, it is not usually appealing for local firms to invest in learning and develop their capabilities unless they are incentivised and compelled by the external environment. Firm-level capability building is the result of an interactive process between the internal learning effort of firms and their external environment, but African-owned firms usually face an unfavourable external environment with widespread market failures and few supporting institutions, which increase the learning costs and the uncertainties of a return on investment. As a result, the firms usually have low technological capabilities, which in turn makes it harder for these firms to acquire, absorb and adapt the foreign knowledge required for foreign direct investment spillovers and upgrading in global value chains to occur. Despite the difficult circumstances, locally owned firms in some African countries manage to compete in global value chains, but there is limited knowledge on how those firms became internationally competitive through investing in learning and building capabilities, how they relate to foreign firms and global value chain actors, and whether they try and are able to move into higher value activities within global value chains. In order to contribute to filling this gap in literature, the thesis investigates under which conditions Ethiopian-owned firms in the floriculture export sector invest in building their technological capabilities, considering the national institutional context and floriculture global value chain dynamics in which firms operate. Methodologically, the thesis combines the technological capabilities and global value chain approaches in order to identify more precisely what kind of capabilities are required to enter, remain competitive and upgrade within floriculture global value chains. It uses a uniquely designed firm-level survey to collect the data used to measure the capabilities of Ethiopian floriculture firms, and uses data collected through a firm history method to examine the factors influencing whether and how firms invest in learning. The findings show that local firms' initial investment in the Ethiopian floriculture export sector was mainly incentivised by government industrial policy, while a Dutch development program played an important but less prominent role. Systems of innovation, foreign direct investment spillovers, global value chain governance, and the Dutch development program served as sources of knowledge and catalysed learning to various degrees. Nevertheless, firms' learning efforts were influenced initially by sector specific characteristics, such as the Dutch auction offering relatively attractive rewards, the inherent narrow margin for failure that exists in the sector, and the absence of a significant domestic market for cut-flowers. However, firms' further learning efforts and subsequently their level of technological capabilities was driven mainly by firm-specific characteristics, such as the owner's perception of risk and reward about the export sector as well as in relation to their diversified business groups. Most of the Ethiopian floriculture firms had other business, and they made calculations of risk and reward about the diversified business group as a whole, which shaped their effort in relation to their flower export firm. A key contribution of the thesis is that it distinguishes conceptually three dimensions of local firms' technological capability building process: incentivizing firms' initial investment, sources of knowledge or expanding knowledge sources locally and catalysing learning, and compelling firms' learning effort. In reality, the three dimensions of TC building process are interactive and may not be separable from each other, but the conceptual distinction is important in order to provide a more nuanced view about how firms' learning takes place and more specifically how national and global factors influence firms' TC building process through shaping one or more of the three dimensions. These three dimensions can be useful in assessing processes of learning and firms' TC building in other sectors as well as contexts. The key factors that shaped firm-level capability building processes in the Ethiopia floriculture export case are industrial policy, national innovation systems, foreign direct investment spillovers, global value chain governance, a Dutch development program as well as firm specific characteristics. Thus, the thesis confirms much of the existing arguments in the literature in relation to these key factors, but it also elaborates on the causal mechanisms, refining our knowledge on these processes and how they work in a less developed African country such as Ethiopia. In particular, the thesis highlights the success and failures of the industrial policy of Ethiopian floriculture as lessons for policy makers in Ethiopia and other African as well as other low-income countries. It also discusses the role of the Dutch development program as a unique factor, not conceptualized in the literature, as the Dutch program was driven by both development cooperation objectives and the economic interest of the Dutch auction, making it a hybrid that has characteristics of a global value chain actor and a kind of government industrial policy financed by foreign aid. This finding points to opportunities for alternative forms of support for local firm learning.

The Government of Ethiopia in Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP) to overcome the impacts of any development projects on environment through concerted fiscal and monetary policy interventions complemented by regulatory and stabilization measures undertaken by the Government. However, environmental degradation and mismanagement of natural resources reduces the environment's ability to produce biomass for food, feed and household energy is continuing. Rapid and severe degradation can lead to special circumstances in the society, such as migration, deterioration of the person's health condition, displacement of indigenous peoples or communities and lack of access to basic environmental services such as clean water, bio-fuel, etc. These changes added stress on the lives of the people. One of the major activities contributing for environmental degradation in Ethiopia is road construction. The key environmental problems associated to road construction are removal of vegetation cover from road limit, borrow areas, quarry sites, camp sites and accelerating soil erosion and soil removal. Water and soil pollution by construction spoils and other related waste material from construction camps and workshops are serious challenges. Majority of the adverse impacts can be reduced with inclusion of the necessary mitigation and enhancement measure in the project road design, and their proper implementation in the successive phases. Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) is a systematic process that proactively examines the potential consequences of development actions. As a planning process, the longer-term objective of EIA is to contribute to sustainable development. In Ethiopia, EIA is become a legal requirement and the system has been established. Even though the legal framework and institutional setup are in place to run the system, it is not yet well implemented to help achieving environmentally friendly developments. This specific study has aimed to evaluate the status of EIA implementation in ERA road projects. Two roads have been selected as case study to undertake the research. The evaluation was based on the assessment of adequacy of EIA legislation, EIA administration, EIA procedure, implementation of EIA and recommended measures, public participation and quality of EIS. The study was carried out through questionnaire, interview, analysis of project specific documents, focus group discussion and field observation. The research has identified that the current EIA practice in road projects is not effective enough to meet the intended objective. The factors affecting the effectiveness are absence of EIA system monitoring, weak regulatory enforcement, poor integration of EIA into decision making process, lack of public involvement, weak integration of EIA into project cycle, poorly developed environmental database and information system, quality of EIA reports, absence of separate pay items and weak inter-sectoral coordination and communication and limited resource availability. In order to improve its efficiency and effectiveness, provision of separate pay item in the bill of quantity, omission in key stages and components of EIA process, organizational capacity of environmental protection authority and coordination with Ethiopian Roads Authority (ERA), database and environmental information system, participation of local communities and organizations, defining Sectoral responsibilities, awareness creation to different actors involving in the EIA process and monitoring and follow up.

The Ethiopian floriculture industry is relatively young and yet has rapidly expanded to emerge as the fifth largest flower exporter worldwide. The success was driven by local investment combined with foreign direct investment, and actively supported by targeted industrial policy from the government as well as development cooperation, particularly from the Dutch government. Although foreign firms dominate the industry now, local firms have participated since its inception and were involved in pioneering the sector. This paper measures and analyses the technological capabilities, competitiveness and export trajectories of Ethiopian-owned firms engaged in cut-flower production for export. It constructs a technological capability matrix that describes the specific capabilities required to enter and operate in different parts of the floriculture global value chain, adjusted for the specificities of the Ethiopian industry, and uses this matrix to design a local firm survey to assess firms' capabilities across four categories: product and production process, input integration, linkages and end-market. The survey was carried out with almost all local firms. The aggregate technological capability scores show that all firms have developed their capabilities, as they scored medium and above in most categories. However, none of the firms except one showed a uniform score across the four capability categories, which means that firms did not build all categories of capabilities to the same level. The paper also analyses firms' technological capabilities compared to measures of competitiveness, which underscores the complexity and dynamism of the relationship between capabilities and competitiveness. The findings show that firms can increase their competitiveness (measured in terms of unit price) by selectively deepening capabilities that are important to meeting the requirements of the targeted market channel. In sum, the different export trajectories among firms can explain some of the discrepancy between capabilities and competitiveness. ; The Ethiopian floriculture industry is relatively young and yet has rapidly expanded to emerge as the fifth largest flower exporter worldwide. The success was driven by local investment combined with foreign direct investment, and actively supported by targeted industrial policy from the government as well as development cooperation, particularly from the Dutch government. Although foreign firms dominate the industry now, local firms have participated since its inception and were involved in pioneering the sector. This paper measures and analyses the technological capabilities, competitiveness and export trajectories of Ethiopian-owned firms engaged in cut-flower production for export. It constructs a technological capability matrix that describes the specific capabilities required to enter and operate in different parts of the floriculture global value chain, adjusted for the specificities of the Ethiopian industry, and uses this matrix to design a local firm survey to assess firms' capabilities across four categories: product and production process, input integration, linkages and end-market. The survey was carried out with almost all local firms. The aggregate technological capability scores show that all firms have developed their capabilities, as they scored medium and above in most categories. However, none of the firms except one showed a uniform score across the four capability categories, which means that firms did not build all categories of capabilities to the same level. The paper also analyses firms' technological capabilities compared to measures of competitiveness, which underscores the complexity and dynamism of the relationship between capabilities and competitiveness. The findings show that firms can increase their competitiveness (measured in terms of unit price) by selectively deepening capabilities that are important to meeting the requirements of the targeted market channel. In sum, the different export trajectories among firms can explain some of the discrepancy between capabilities and competitiveness.

17 USC 105 interim-entered record; under review. ; The article of record as published may be found at https://doi.org/10.1080/10242694.2020.1808939 ; This paper offers an economic model to assist public procurement officials to rank competing vendors when benefits cannot be monetized. An important defense application is 'source selection' – choosing the most cost-effective vendor to supply military equipment, facilities, services or supplies. The problem of ranking public investment alternatives when benefits cannot be monetized has spawned an extensive literature that underpins widely applied decision tools. The bulk of the literature, and most government-mandated decision tools, focus on the demand side of a public procurement. The 'Economic Evaluation of Alternatives' (EEoA) extends the analysis to the supply side. A unique feature of EEoA is to model vendor decisions in response to government funding projections. Given a parsimonious set of continuously differentiable evaluation criteria, EEoA provides a new tool to rank vendors. In other cases, it offers a valuable consistency check to guide government supplier decisions. ; U.S. Government affiliation is unstated in article text.

Educational aspiration plays an important role in terms of both reinforcing and discouraging future academic achievement of students. The present research aimed at assessing the level of educational aspiration of school-going adolescents in selected primary schools of Shashemene town, Ethiopia. Using the survey method, quantitative data were collected by self-administered questionnaires from randomly selected 500 grade 8 students. Data were entered into SPSSversion 20 and both descriptive and inferential statistical techniques were used for data presentation. It was found that 97.5% of respondents reported having planned to directly join secondary schools after completing 8th grade and 85.8% of them aspire to join higher education in the future. Results of correlation statistics revealed that educational aspiration is associated with age and academic performance of students. In addition, coefficients of regression analysisshowed that age (0.184, 0.000) and academic performance (0.153, 0.001) of students significantly determine what the students intend to pursue after completing 8th grade under circumstances in which they are free to decide without external influence. Above all, students' aspiration to join higher educational institutions has been found to be significantly associated with the age (0.168, 0.000) of the students. School-going adolescents in the study area were found to have a very high level of educational aspiration. Converting such potential into an opportunity for Ethiopia's future development requires family, school, and governmentinstitutions to provide the necessary support to the students.

This paper offers an economic model to assist public procurement officials in ranking competing vendors when benefits cannot be monetized. An important defense application is "source selection"—choosing the most cost-effective vendor to supply military equipment, facilities, services, or supplies. The problem of ranking public investment alternatives when benefits cannot be monetized has spawned an extensive literature that underpins widely applied decision tools. The bulk of the literature, and most government-mandated decision tools, focuses on the demand side of a public procurement. The "economic evaluation of alternatives" (EEoA) extends the analysis to the supply side. A unique feature of EEoA is to model vendor decisions in response to government funding projections. Given a parsimonious set of continuously differentiable evaluation criteria, EEoA provides a new tool to rank vendors. In other cases, it offers a valuable consistency check to guide government supplier decisions. ; Prepared for the Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA 93943. ; Naval Postgraduate School ; Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. ; Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

This article deals with irregular international migration among the youth in south-west Ethiopia, which is one of the major issues that grabbed the attention of the international community in recent years. The article draws on a study which aimed at determining major predictors of irregular migration intention among youth in Jimma Zone, Southwest Ethiopia. Irregular migration and human trafficking are serious challenges that people face in Ethiopia in general and in Jimma Zone in particular. Concurrent cross-sectional mixed method study design was deployed, and a total of 347 respondents participated in a quantitative survey and 33 and 6 took part in five Focus Group Discussions and in-depth interviews respectively. The study was conducted in three selected woredas/districts of Jimma Zone between March and April 2018. Variables such as age, political unrest, unreliable information from social media, social networks, the desire for life enhancement, and readiness for taking risk are found to be good predictors or reasons of irregular migration. Age has strong negative correlation (r=-0.73) with irregular migration intention. Personal readiness has very strong (r=0.96) and positive correlation with irregular migration intention. In conclusion, youth in particular and community in general in Jimma Zone favor irregular migration to home situation and prefer to try out other life as livelihood strategy.

BACKGROUND: Enhanced adherence counseling (EAC) is an interventional program that provides targeted adherence counseling for unsuppressed viral load people living with HIV who are receiving antiretroviral therapy before diagnosing treatment failure. However, there is a lack of evidence on change in viral load count among patients receiving EAC intervention. Therefore, this study aimed to assess change in viral load count and its predictors among people living with HIV (PLHIV) in northeast Ethiopia. METHODS: A hospital-based retrospective follow-up study was conducted on 235 randomly selected patients with unsuppressed viral load who started EAC sessions between 2016 and 2019 at three governmental hospitals in the northern part of Ethiopia. Viral load count and patient individual factors were assessed at EAC program enrollment and viral load counts repeated at the end of EAC session. The main outcome variable was a change in viral load count during the EAC session period. A paired sample t-test was used to determine the mean difference in viral load count before and after EAC intervention. Linear mixed-effects models were used to assess the effect of selected factors on viral load count change. RESULTS: Based on the paired sample t-test, there was a significant mean difference in viral load count before and after EAC intervention (mean difference=16,904, (95% CI: 9986–23,821; p-value<0.001). The multivariable linear mixed-effects regression analysis showed that young age (β= 0.03; 95% CI: 0.01, 0.14), urban residence (β= −0.55; 95% CI: −0.63, −0.34), CD4 count of 201–500 cells/mm(3) (β= −0.67; 95% CI: −0.87, −0.43) and long duration on ART (β= −0.01; 95% CI: −0.01, −0.02) were associated with the decline in viral load count. CONCLUSION: We detected a substantial decline in viral load count among patients receiving an EAC intervention. Young age, urban residence, CD4 count of 201–500 cells/mm(3) and long duration on ART were the positive predictors of viral load suppression.

Gedefaw Diress,1 Melese Linger2 1Department of Public Health, College of Health Sciences, Woldia University, Woldia, Ethiopia; 2Department of Midwifery, College of Health Sciences, Woldia University, Woldia, EthiopiaCorrespondence: Gedefaw Diress Department of Public HealthCollege of Health Sciences, Woldia University, Woldia 400, EthiopiaTel +251913756945Email gedefawdiress@gmail.comBackground: Enhanced adherence counseling (EAC) is an interventional program that provides targeted adherence counseling for unsuppressed viral load people living with HIV who are receiving antiretroviral therapy before diagnosing treatment failure. However, there is a lack of evidence on change in viral load count among patients receiving EAC intervention. Therefore, this study aimed to assess change in viral load count and its predictors among people living with HIV (PLHIV) in northeast Ethiopia.Methods: A hospital-based retrospective follow-up study was conducted on 235 randomly selected patients with unsuppressed viral load who started EAC sessions between 2016 and 2019 at three governmental hospitals in the northern part of Ethiopia. Viral load count and patient individual factors were assessed at EAC program enrollment and viral load counts repeated at the end of EAC session. The main outcome variable was a change in viral load count during the EAC session period. A paired sample t-test was used to determine the mean difference in viral load count before and after EAC intervention. Linear mixed-effects models were used to assess the effect of selected factors on viral load count change.Results: Based on the paired sample t-test, there was a significant mean difference in viral load count before and after EAC intervention (mean difference=16,904, (95% CI: 9986– 23,821; p-value< 0.001). The multivariable linear mixed-effects regression analysis showed that young age (β= 0.03; 95% CI: 0.01, 0.14), urban residence (β= − 0.55; 95% CI: − 0.63, − 0.34), CD4 count of 201– 500 cells/mm3 (β= − 0.67; 95% CI: − 0.87, − 0.43) and long duration on ART (β= − 0.01; 95% CI: − 0.01, − 0.02) were associated with the decline in viral load count.Conclusion: We detected a substantial decline in viral load count among patients receiving an EAC intervention. Young age, urban residence, CD4 count of 201– 500 cells/mm3 and long duration on ART were the positive predictors of viral load suppression.Keywords: adherence, anti-retroviral therapy, HIV, viral load